it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. we hope the debt ceiling standoff could come to an end. word the republicans and democrats are coming to a deal. and futures on wall street trading on the green as one area in the market does something for the first time since 2020. and twitter 2.0. the new ceo breaks her silence and what she hopes to accomplish. and the housing picture.

have we hit peak mortgage rates? that may be up to the fed. and later this morning, the global hot spots and issues impacting the markets and your money. this morning, turkey a and thailand in japan. g7 summit happening now. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm frank holland. thank you for joining us let's check on the u.s. stock futures after the mixed session on friday which saw the week in the red. this morning, we are seeing futures in the green s&p and dow and nasdaq up .30% nasdaq would up 100 points higher, but it is very early we are checking the bond market. we start with the 10-year treasury if you look at the 10-year treasury, this is about the 8 or

9 basis points lower now below 4% something to watch as we close in on the deal with the debt limit and a check on the short end of the curve with the 1-month t-bill that is elevated at $5.749 it started the month at 4% you see the swing to the upside. it started the month at 4% and now 5.749% we are watch wiing the energy market wti crude at $70 brent crude at $74 we are watching crypto as well crypto has had a tough time. coming off tough weeks this morning up 2% for bitcoin and ethereum

both are below what would have been below 30,000 and 2,000. turning attention around the world. green arrows overnight in asia hang seng up 1.3%. sang shanghai gaining more than 1%. the trading day in europe is getting under way. similar to what we see here in the united states when it comes to futures green across the board dax up fractionally. we are paying attention to turkey with the runoff the equity index is down 3%. the lira is making asharp move higher we will have more on that story and the inflation in turkey coming up. let's check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana, good morning. >> frank, good morning president biden and mccarthy and

other congressional leaders planning to resume their face-to-face talks on a possible budget deal tomorrow reports this morning that negotiations are moving along with sources telling the financial times that usual youi the table are narrowing. this after president biden told reporters he is hopeful a deal will get done. the twitter ceo is breaking her silence about the new position and working with elon musk in a series of tweets since accepting the job, linda yaccarino said she is committed to the social media development and user feedback vital. yaccarino said she long has been inspired about the musk vision for the future and excited to bring the vision to twitter. tiger global management is reportedly looking to offload hundreds of millions of dollars of private companies in the

secondary market this comes after the $51 billion firm marked down $23 billion last year. tiger invested in hundreds of pc backed companies, including bytedance and discord. >> re-pricing of everything from stocks to bonds and private companies. silvana, see you later on. turning attention back to the broader markets and catalyst for the stock market rally bank of america's survey finding fund managers currently have the lowest exposure to stocks relative to bonds since 2009 the great recession. they poulled $334 million from stocks driving money markets to a record $5.3 the trillion turmoil in the banking sector and worries about inflation and recession dragging on the investor confidence.

many say this could push to the upside wall street adopting a kc contrarian view. let's talk more with jay hatfield >> good morning, frank. >> we talked about what is going on right now inflation and banking crisis and possible recession some contrarians could also lead to a rally where are you? contrarian or consensus? what is your outlook >> we are contrarian we established a 4,500 price target to the s&p. that's 19 times 2024 earnings. what we think will be true when we hit july, investors will focus on 2024 and more importantly, the inflation data, mostly because of arithmetic, but we are forecasting cpi

headline goes to 3.5 and ppi to on only 0.9 that is leading. that is not a heroic estimate on our part we are rolling off two months of over 1% last year. we think the federal reserve will recognize inflation is declining and that sets up for a summer rally. >> you say summer rally. you said s&p outlook is 4,500? >> correct. >> 8% upside from here. >> more risk to the upside at this point because of a.i. and tech boom potentially. >> a.i. will have a big influence on a lot of things inflationary i want to switch gears for a bit. when it comes to bonds, you are watching the bond market and you believe the $52 trillion in assets, global pension funds, is a big influence to the bond market explain that theory and why it

is a stable set of assets will have a big influence on the bond market >> a lot of investors don't recognize $32 trillion of that is in the united states. most of our pension funds are quite well funded. we also focus on the ones that aren't like in illinois. most are well funded and also underall under-allocated to bonds that is all bonds. if treasuries rise like they have, they start to become pretty close or a good percentage of the benchmark. it makes sense for those pension funds to reallocate. we think there is a deep bid for bonds that did not exist 20 or 30 years ago when we did not have the explosion and retirement and requirement to set aside funds. >> where are the buys coming from short end? long end >> that is the great thing about those investors. t-- investors, they want to

be ultra long term we think the 30-year is capped now it is obvious because the economy is slowing even in the beginning of the year, we felt it capped at 4%. most funds are at 7. 4 is a good percentage relative to that and risk free dollar >> jay, what are you doing with portfolio protection we mentioned the risks with inflation and possible recession. >> we buy income security. large cap dividend stock it is also worth mentioning that mlps are under valued. there is a merger acquisition by one oak magellen we think they are under valued with the yields like mlp and pipeline. >> jay hatfield, thank you very much we have more to come on ""worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today.

first, why u.s. home buyers may wait a bit before locking in the next 30-year mortgage or have rifi on the calendar. tensions rise in turkey after the leader who took that top job more than 20 years ago. and what apple did for the very first time since 2020 a very busy urho still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us what if you could make analyzing a big bank's data...

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awelcome back several pieces of data due out like existing home sales on thursday those numbers are coming as we move to the end of the spring buying season. we have diana olick with more on why the sector is looking different this year. >> this has been an unusual spring market to say the least and what better place to start than home prices which are most unusual. after jumping 40% nationally in the first two years of the pandemic, they started cooling off with sharply higher mortgage rates. they fell at the fastest pace on record into the fall now they appear to be rising yet again. why? roller coaster mortgage rates and average on the 30-year fixed hit a dozen record lows in the first two years of the pandemic and doubled in the first six months of last year before peaking october. in january, however, it fell

back hard and that brought buyers out heating up demand supply is still critically low new listings were down 21% in april. sellers don't want to give up the record low rates so prices turned higher, especially in markets like vegas the price swings have had an impact on homeowner wetalth after two years of equity, some of that melted away. the average mortgage holder has $185,000 of tapable equity it is down more than $210,000 from last year 65,000 or 56% pre-pandemic negative equity is low with 1.1% of mortgage holders under water in march, all of that according to blackknight frank. >> thank you, diana olick, for that for more on housing and where the sector stands right now, let's bring in logan mohtashami.

>> good to be here. >> diana laid it out for us. how did this spring season go? we saw it fueled by the pandemic last year and lower rates. >> last year around this time, mortgage rates started to spike. we saw it negatively impact the purchase application data. so far year to date, we have positive application data. i would say it is a mild positive year so far the real story is inventory. total active listings are at all-time lows. it took the longest time to find the seasonal bottom. zombies are slowly walking we are not back to normal on that front. >> you are saying we are near historic lows with inventory according to data, we saw inventory rise last week about 34% over what it was last year

what does that mean for people buying and selling >> total active listings is 2 to 2.5 million. we are still under 1 million the week-to-week data has increased, but not near normal if it is trending at all-time lows and less than six weeks before seasonality kicks in and when you don't have the active listings up, you get in bidding wars and other parts on the west coast with more inventory than east coast it is one of the dysfunctional housing rights where it has fallen from the peak if you look at home sales, they are trending at ten-year lows. it is an awkward housing market with the active listings being

low and it may seem stronger >> you said something that caught my ear. mortgage rates are off the peak. have we hit peak mortgage rates? how big of an impact will it have on the mortgage rates >> i believe mortgage rates peaked last year i don't see how the 10-year yield gets above 4.25% mortgage rates should be 1% to 1.25% over what it is. if that change and the market started to price normally, we could see rates in the low 5s. so far, there is nothing to indicate the mortgage market is going to be functioning in any normal fashion we have been used to before 2022 >> the big question. if you are looking to buy a property, should you wait? how long should you wait >> traditionally people don't wait spring season. this is the time they start to

buy homes and move if the economy gets weaker and jobless claims pick up, especially over 323,000 in the four-week moving average, mortgage rates should get better i don't know how much better it should get with the mortgage market spread is bad you might not get too much relief until the labor market breaks. >> logan, great to have you on ahead on "worldwide exchange," a look at the global hot spots. we are watching developments that could move the needle for your markets and money with the g7 in china. martin soong is in japan >> reporter: frank, the g7 is fighting back against plans to ban exports to china and restrict foreign direct investment the latest whewen come back

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rich, velvety coffee. cafe-quality espresso. one high-pressure system that can do both. brew to your heart's desire. with the l'or barista system. a masterpiece in taste welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are now looking at global hot spots that could impact your money. we head to turkey. president erdogan who ruled with a tight grip for 20 years is leading the main challenger, but short of the votes needed for

the outright win next up is thailand. opposition parties won in weekend elections. voters wanted a change from the latest who took power under a coup. and ac-- coup. we have the stories covered with martin soong and dan murphy. let's start with martin. >> reporter: good morning. you are right, the g7 is fighting back the counter of the china economic coercion. janet yellen is here at the g7 which wrapped up over the weekend which is using an example of what china is doing to lithuania and australia

after australia initiated a probe into the origins of the coronavirus, after that, china hit back by banning imports of australian beef, barley and wine and lobsters as well the g7 is trying to get a ban on exports to china as well as a move to restrict or limit foreign investment into china. first point is banning exports to china this is a u.s.-led initiative, yes, and something the president will talk more about come the summit on friday in hiroshima. there is a lack of consensus as we understand right now because the eu or japan is on board with the idea that is going to be a bit of work still to do there as far as fdi goes, we don't know, but the u.s. has come out -- excuse me, the g7 said

they will try to limit foreign directed investment where sovereignty is at stake or held hostage. that is a direct reference to china. frank. >> martin, thank you now to dan murphy with the turkish elections and what another erdogan win could mean for the country in its place in the global community >> reporter: frank, you get the sense all of this comes down to the equity market reaction today. at the open, turkish stocks slumping6% and triggering a breaker. and the lira is at a two-month low. investors are surprised with the ou outcome of the vote where no single candidate received 50% to claim victory here that is bad news for erdogan and his main opponent challenger here what we will see now

this vote will go to a second round election runoff on the 28th of may. the results of which we are likely to see as soon as the 1st of june. the president was addressing his supporters in the capital early this morning he says he is ready to lead. listen in. >> translator: you made the choice in favor of the second election and that is welcome we believe we will finish this round with over 50% of the vote. >> reporter: analysts say erdogan could do well in the second round of the vote that is bad news for his challenger bad news for those investors hoping for a return to normalcy with the turkey economic and foreign and monetary policy. back to you. >> dan murphy in istanbul. thank you. and this morning, watching the major equity index moving

sharply lower. let's discuss turkey and bring in steven schoenfeld steven, great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. >> i'm sure you are watching what is going on in turkey with the election what is the issue with the election and runoff stcheduled for later this month >> politically, it is a big disappointment for the opposition this was their best chance in over a decade to win control many polls expected them to win in the first round erdogan really had more support in the heartland than many observers expected and the dropout of the leading opposition candidate just before the election did not help the opposition i think erdogan has the edge in the runoff it will be volatile in the next two weeks as we move to the runoff election on may 28th.

>> turkey is the nexus point when it comes to europe and asia it also has close ties to russia i want to get back to the implications we are seeing the lira at historic lows compared to the dollar inflation is spiking 40% what does that mean for the global economy if the opposition wins thoughts they would have the central bank raise rates does that have an echo effect? >> turkey is a very large economy. $1 trillion u.s. gdp 85 million population. any interest rate moves in turkey are completely separate not only from the u.s. and europe, but most emerging markets. erdogan and his rotating crew of financial advisers and central bank governors pursued unorthodox policies as that is

40% inflation sounds as high as 80% or 90% in the fall and he started making adjustments before the election. he doesn't have an inclination to change this unorthodox policy of policy you will see, unfortunately, if he wins, you will see a continued pivoting and playing the u.s. and russia off each other. a lot of the support erdogan got in the last six months have been from gulf countries and from russia >> if he continues to play the u.s. and russia against each other, does that have an impact that investors should be mindful of russia and china getting closer and closer and martin soong said g7 planted a warning about other coun countries. >> i think erdogan will continue

to be disruptive turkey is a nato member, but he will likely not cooperate with western sanctions against russia because russian economic relations have been a lifeline for erdogan. the hope is the opposition winning would return to more liberal pro-west foreign policy. that seems much less likely which is why you have the local market down, as down as your colleague said more than 6%. it is still down 3% and the outlook looks quite weak for the lira it this means more bad news for turkey i do think it can be isolated. it will not dramatically effect global markets >> steven, thank you straight ahead on "worldwide straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," how about activis

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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. a debt deal taking shape lawmakers potentially moving forward as president biden and mccarthy prepare to meet this week. and big tech preparing to power the markets higher as

investors get back on the growth trade train. we dive into the sector and whether it reached highs and merger monday with two deals in the mining and energy spaces those names ahead on monday, may 15th here on "worldwide exchange." welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's pick up the check on the u.s. stock futures in the green in morning and the dow is moving up slightly. futures are 100 points higher. wearing seeing the s&p and nasdaq fractionally higher the tech trade continues to be front and center with the nasdaq which is the only index to notch a gain last week this morning, we are watching appl apple. the single company with the market cap larger than the

russell 2000 index the second time it surpassed the russell since september 1st, 2020 we will have more about this later on and hone in on another company that is seeing an historic rally. now to the bond market we start with the 10-year treasury 3.48%. the real news here and this is moving to the upside which is the 2-year treasury above the 4% yield. it is meaningful above 4%. we continue to watch the shorsh short end of the curve the 1-month t-bill yield was 4%. we are seeing it climb to 5.5.7. big move there we are watching the short bond curve. we want to look at oil wti is still above $70 a barrel.

up .30%. brent crude is up $74.35 time for a check of the top stories, including a merger monday with silvana henao who is back with details. frank, two deals to talk about. gold giant newmont with the deal to buy australia's newcrest mining it needs regulatory approval it is the largest deal to date surpassing the purchase of gold corp in 2019 in the energy space, pipeline operator one oak agreeing to buy magellan for $19 billion this would form one of the biggest u.s. companies involved in transporting and storing

energy european union regulators are set to sign off on microsoft's $69 billion takeover the activision-blizzard as early as today. the move comes weeks after the uk's watchdog moved to block the gaming merger. and shake shack finding to be a focus of the possible proxy battle according to the wall street journal, engaged capital is looking to see three board seats at the company it has roughly a 6% stake in shake shack. they have been in talks for new directors and other changes to help boost shake shack stock price. >> a lot of activism silvana henao, thank you. turning attention to the

debt ceiling negotiations president biden and house speaker mccarthy will resume talks tomorrow reports this morning that negotiations are moving along and issues on the table are narrowing right now. this after president biden told reporters yesterday he is hopeful a deal will get done >> the desire on their part as well as ours to reach agreement. i think we will do it. my hope is they will continue to go down. we have more work to do and we need more help from the congress in terms of funding and legislative changes. >> with over two weeks to go before the june 1st deadline dat date, we bring in our latest guest. >> thanks for having me, frank

>> the so-called date will not come before june 1st and probably weeks later does that change the temperature of the talks tomorrow? >> frank, they need a deadline to force action. that's always the case in washington as we get closer to the ted line, we think that will narrow the two sides. however, our current base case is there is not enough time to get a full deal done right now t.now. >> it is likely we will see a punt >> talk about the area where is we could see agreement there is a representative that house speaker mccarthy had with captain of the ship. spending caps and rescinding unspent covid aid. is there one that is more contentious than the other could a deal be reached on >> i don't think anything is

done until everything is done. that is the usual phrase in washington the work requirement is probably the most contentious of those. the unspent covid money is the easy layup on spending caps and permitting reform, i think in theory, there is room for agreement. the problem is the devil is in the details. on spending caps in particular, right now, we're hearing that the biden administration would be willing to consider some form of two-year deal republicans are looking for a longer term like a ten-year deal. >> let's go to one more d.c. phrase politics makes strange bed fellows. can dbiden and mccarthy sow all

this up? >> that is the process, frank. process jumps substance in washington it is not just the deal, but the way they go about getting it because it doesn't matter what the deal is because both biden and mccarthy want to keep this be jobs -- keep their jobs how do they sell that win? particularly on the mccarthy side because biden has to wait until the ballot box to keep his job, but mccarthy is always at the whim of his conference that could do what is known as a motion of vacate to get rid of him. the question is he will never get the freedom caucus, far right, to back with a compromise deal the question is can he keep that opposition to just grumbling or do they actually try to take him down that's what he needs to tread.

>> stephen myrow, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," big tech's big bounce back our next guest says the valuations look favorable as shares continue to rebound we will tell you the names high on his list when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.

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time for the morning call sheet. we begin with tapestry rating the price target to $55. expect the short-term weakness played out and likes the long-term story. looking at shares up 2% in the pre-market another upgrade. raymond james lifting charles schwab citing data with client cash is tapering and supporting the balance sheet in the second half looking at shares which are up 2% this morning. and deutsche bank upgrading dupont from hold to buy. it cites meetings with management and inclusion of the merger with dow and legal matters wrapping up. sticking with stocks and mega cap tech's impressive run leading the charge is meta mark zuckerberg's pledge for a

year of efficiency it looks to be paying off. similar gains across the space with nvidia up 90% tesla up 35% apple up 30% alphabet up more than 30%. with these gains, there is still a little more room to run for some of the names. tesla is off 46% from the recent 52-week high amazon is 24% off. netflix and alphabet is off 10% and 3% if the fed is ready to hit the pause bougutton, is there anythg to hold back joining me is james cakmak james, is anything holding the tech stocks back do they have room to run >> i think they do i think we are in a little bit of no-man's land for the next couple months. a lot of these have reached full valuation on the 2023 earnings

basis. once we look at 2024, we think the valuations do still extremely tcompelling we do think there is room to run. not only should the growth curve continue to prove more resilient, but the earnings picture through the cost cutting should trend steeper >> the consensus is we will see a pause at the next meeting. these stocks are interest rate sensitive. is the rally in your mind depending on the pause or are you pricing in a cut >> i think the fed has announced the role in this the pause is essential that they maintain that. the market is pricing in rate cuts toward the end of the year. >> you and your theory >> i think we will likely have to see a cut some time in the second half of the year to keep

momentum going if interest rates continue to remain, the fear on the sector could weigh on the entire market it is something we are watching closely. >> let's talk about the big gainers, including meta. you have a bullish price target with the upside of the company which has doubled. >> the way we look at it is they should do something to 24. a 20 multiple is not too difficult to achieve for 2024 earnings 20 times 16. $320 stock. >> what about the other big winners? nvidia, for example, getting a boost from the a.i. chase. can the rally continue can the hype around a.i. continue >> i think so, yes

according to nadella, this is the most profound technology he has seen in his career we echo that the productivity gains from a.i. are astounding look at what airbnb is saying. they think a.i. can boost employee productivity by 30% you don't see that function in the means of productivity since the assembly line. it is a big deal >> that's a bold statement james cakmak, i appreciate it. ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to know today, plus despite the worry in the market, there is a key technical signal that just might be pointing to a bull market rally. we will tell you what it is. cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage month we are celebrating business leaders as we head to break.

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we start with the turkey presidential election. president erdogan who ruled the country with a tight grip for 20 years is leading the challenger, but short of the votes needed for an outright win. twitter ceo breaking her silence. in a series of tweets, linda yaccarino says she is committed to the development of the country with user feedback. vice media filing for bankruptcy the move is part of the plan to engineer a sale to a group of lenders, including the biggest creditor fortress. and amazon is looking to make deliveries faster by revamping the network. the executives telling cnbc part of the plan involves focusing on a.i. to speed up deliveries to minimize distance between products and customers. and google is launching tools over a.i. images

a.i. content will be labelled to reduce the spread of misinformation. and tiger global p management is looking to offload millions to private companies into the second market this comes after the firm marked down the convventure portfolio y $23 billion. turning attention now to the new trading week futures are in the green dow would open up 100 points higher right now our next guest says the s&p cannot break past the 4,200 mark, but keys are suggesting a bull market rally. malcolm ethridge is here with us great to see you >> good morning, frank >> people are talking about the s&p being range bound. it is 4,150. what happens if we get the 50

extra points and break 4,200 >> we need to sustain the level abov above 44,200. we are continuing to put in higher lows. that matters in the sense the range is tightening around that level. we are 4,100 right now and that is where we are persistent we can't break through the 4,200 level, but making our way upward as far as the trend. if you look at the last six trading weeks for example, we haven't seen the week end up by more than 1% in either direction. if you look at last friday's close, for example, we were fractionally lower, but it was a small fraction this week, we are looking at positive futures already telling us monday will start off on a

good note. >> that is with the s&p off the two-week losing streak we ask you to share the word they believe will describe the trading day ahead. what is your word of the day >> the word is optimistic. i'm optimistic we will get a debt ceiling lift. i think democrats prevail in the case and that will be a positive signal to the market it has been holding its breath knowing we cannot default on our debt there is a difference between knowing and knowing. we want to make sure we get past this last threshold. i'm optimistic also we get a pause out of the fed once we get all of the economic data that will come out of may i think those two events occurring around the same time are going to be a positive sign for markets and that last little thing that bulls have been waiting on to come in and buy the market back up. >> malcolm, love the optimism.

what have you seen that is giving you confidence we will see a pause? job market is strong and cpi was below estimate, but above 2% >> i'm not necessarily trying to use the "g" word for a pause i know 95% seem to be baking it in also the fixed income market is baking in a pause. i think one reason we can hang our hat on is historically the terminal rate needs to be above cpi before the fed pauses. we just got that history being our guide, we can look at that met hadric and this could be the pause. >> malcolm, we're almost out of time one last question. one idea with portfolio prot protection >> as far as portfolio

protection, i think you are in danger of missing a potential rally in tech. i think maybe buying the qs here and hanging on for a second more broadly to catch the tech wave that is where all of the money. >> qqq we have to leave it there. sorry to cut you off we are playing the music that is it for "worldwide exchange." an f wchg.x" is coming up next thksoratin ♪ these are the people, who help you stay well. ♪ ♪ searching lower prices, ♪ ♪ and brands you love on the shelves. ♪ behind the counter, or in the aisles, healthier's better when it happens together. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together.

good morning stock futures slightly higher, but triple digits on the dow ahead of a busy week for what? retail in washington, president biden planning to meet with congressional leaders tomorrow we will have the latest on the debt ceiling talks. plus, deal news. we will tell you about a merger

agreement between some miners. gold and other things. also pipeline operators. it is monday, may 15th and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin things are starting off in the green sharply for a monday you see the u.s. equities at this hour. the dow up triple digits gain of 108. s&p futures up 15. the nasdaq indicated up by 38. if you are watching treasury yields, right now, the 10-year treasury is sitting just at 3.478% 2 year at 4.004.