lower today. the dow and s&p finishing lower, but the nasdaq hanging on to gains for the week that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast", stocks closing out the week with another round of losses as investors await the retail earnings will it be the consumer to the rescue or will concerns over the banking sector and debt ceiling continue to weigh on markets plus, to the penny the chart master has been dead on with apple. and later, it's friday, which means we've got a chart of the week for you not one, but two of our traders see a buying opportunity here, so should you dip your toe in, too? this is "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square.

we have tim seymour, steve grassa, guy adami and jeff smils. despite an attempted rally late in the day, the dow closed lower for the ninth time in the last ten sessions s&p and nasdaq also ending in the red. this comes amid a key week of earnings early reading from the university of michigan finding consumer sentiment while more than expected this month will next week's reports confirm that the consumer is in a crunch, or will there be relief in store when walmart came out with investor day they gave us details about the long-term forecast but reiterated they're cautious about what's to come for the rest of the year. >> walmart from a sentiment and positioning perspective -- this is probably the most crowded long of the broad license, someone that's long walmart,

it's been a great trade because of the environment, because of the things that you talked about in the consumer -- the trade down, the grocery. disinflation -- not deflation, but disinflation from these levels and difficult comps i think are something to watch i look at target versus walmart. target certainly evaluation makes sense. walmart at some point is really difficult. i stay long on walmart, but on target i think you're going to hear some concern about the overall mix of the basket. you're going to hear a little bit about some of the shrinkage on inventory, some of the things that have been at least plaguing them i think you have had some of these traced that have been very defensive trades in o'reilly and auto zone, and i think those are places where people frankly need to be careful because those are places to hide out. >> earlier this week under armor said they were able to drive sales because of deeper discounting. i'm wondering if that means the consumer is looking for discounts. is that goin tjx

>> they're up 40%. it's not as if they're not performing already haven't performed this year year to date. i think walmart, if i was forced to choose, walmart over tjx, but -- >> nobody forced you by the way. >> i forced myself i have a strange personality defect if you look at tjx and ross stores, they were the early winners coming out of the pandemic because everyone who couldn't get goods wound up overordering. what do you do with overordering it sits. doesn't sell you take it, sell it to other stores they benefit from that that phase is over with. the ross stores and tjx are out of the sun you're going to do bet we are walmart, and they have grocery as well. >> grocery helpful in driving sales but walmart did point out last time those are lower margin

sales. they're still profitable, but if they don't send more of the general merchandise it does pressure the margin. guy, about other names home depot reporting always a good read there with what's going on in the homeowner. we also know the spring weather wasn't great, and tractor supply pointed that out, a big ding for sales of products that have to do with the stores same thing with home depot what do you think? >> home depot on monday or tuesday, i'm sorry, but i'll say this, stock sold out of significantly from the september high, and here we are at 290 290 has been supported a number of times everything you brought up might be in the stock, and at 17 times next year's numbers, home depot doesn't get a lot cheaper than that in terms of valuation so for a plier, i think home depot looks pretty interesting i hear what tim and steve are

say about walmart. curious what jeff thinks walmart at 22 times in this environment, it's not ridiculous, however, it's up against the levels we saw in april of last year, that 158 level which was a prior all-time high so there's a real opportunity for walmart to have a major double top, but home depot might be the one that really gives you bang for your buck at these current levels into earning next week. >> jeff, you can go anywhere you want and pick any of the names you want, but i noticed whiem talking target was done 7% in the last three months so since they last reported they had a decent quarter but were nervous about the rest of the year, like walmart any stand out as opportunities ahead of the results >> let me start with this. i'll go back to what tim was saying, because i think retail is difficult here i look at names in this sort of environment when i have a view the economy is going to continue to slow. i want to see retail names that

have some negative correlation with leading economic indicators or a lower correlation than other cyclical names that would be a walmart, dollar general, auto zone, five below, part of my f.a.m.e. trade. you have the names you should probably be sticking with, but at the same time they're getting crowded, the valuations are high it's almost like, where you do go in retail you start to sound like the boy who called wolf relative to the labor markets. i think it's clear now unemployment blames are going up there's a high correlation between initial unemployment claims and consumer confidence i think we saw that today. i put together a chart maybe we could through it up on the screen now you have this relationship between the senior loan survey obviously now banks are tightening lending standards, so that leads initial unemployment claims by about eight months if you look at indicators like

that or challenger job cut surveys, it tells me the labor market is going to continue to weaken as far as retail, you probably huddle in safer names, but they are more difficult because of the valuation here. >> tim, there are some cross currents going on. we heard strong comments about the consumer wynn called the consumer flush with cash. marriott, norwegian had good things to same then you had hershey talking about, we're seeing tradedowns to lower price points the comments we had just recently out of walmart's investor day when you're looking at the consumer in general, how are you sizing it up as we know recession could very well be right around the corner? and an inflation still remains high. >> i think a tradedown will continue, and walmart's issues are more related to performance -- it's crowded long guy's right, the valuation is

not difficult. you think about their grocery business, there is some relief in the pipeline of grocery business those retailers that have had pricing power are really the ones that have outperformed, and i don't know that they're going to have the same pricing power over the next couple of years. home depot versus lowe's, that's something people looked at home depot underperformed lowe's so i agree with what guy said on that that's how i'm thinking about the consumer at this time trends of last year the trends of next year, frankly. but i think there are places to get more aggressive, and the comps get more difficult. >> grasso, any thoughts about the home depot versus lowe's they were comb come from behind. >> i always end up leaning towards a home depot, but to piggy back on the tradedown, mcdonald's chart looked great for so long, and everyone uses

that against it saying it's got to fail at some point. but when we see people jumping down, we saw what happened with tyson and people jumping down, i think mcdonald's will level off here, flatten out, and rally again some definitely a tradedown. >> interesting stuff in the meantime, even with big losses big tech has been on a tear amazon, alphabet, meta, and apple all beating it over the past month but the chart master warns not every stock in this group will keep up our worth. what do you see here, carter >> we have a lot of long/short institutions, so this was looking at the four largest constituents in the qqq. we know the names -- apple, microsoft, google, amazon. we looked at each as baskets the total market cap of apple and microsoft, now $5 trillion versus amazon and google at 2 1/2. it's doubled if you look at the relationship, it's as wide as it's ever been

the premise of the note is you want the fade apple and microsoft and be long google and amazon we have some charts. so here's the first one. this is a comparative chart, and you can see, two lines, very straight forward leader is a two-stock weighted basket, equal weighted of microsoft and google then lagger is apple and -- you're lookingt largest constituents plotted with the second largest hold the qqq as a constant if you do that, you see how much of a spread you have the premise is you want to be long the laggards here at this point amazon and google and fading the leaders, apple and microsoft. >> fascinating stuff carter you have been spot on with apple so we better pay attention we'll see you shortly on "options action. steve, what do you make of this note from carter >> can't argue with anything he

has seaid. i don't disagree the only pushback -- so i guess i do disagree. >> when you drop a double negative, i know there's something coming don't disagree. >> i'm long apple. you have to tell me if you think the banking crisis -- it's rhetorical you have to tell me if you think the banking crisis is over it's probably not. if it's not, people are going to pull to safety these companies have a ton of free cash flow and great products they have a ton of cash, and i know the valuations are stretched, but when people think about safety, where to put their money, they're probably leaning towards more microsoft and apple even though they have been on fire and they have been the leaders, so i'm not necessarily ready to buy the laggards in this. >> guy >> i understand, and not disagreeing doesn't necessarily mean that you do agree, to tim's point, but i'll say this -- i happen to agree with what carter

said at a certain point, valuations do matter, and i understand why both microsoft and apple are great companies. we've never denied that. the question is, is there enough in the stock in terms of valuation? i thought that many percentage points ago, but i still think it now, nothing's changed and the real story for microsoft and apple has been multiple expansion, because it's really not on the back of their earnings releases if you go back and look in terms of google you can make a compelling case on valuation, and i think you're starting to see that and amazon, obviously sell probably as well, so i'm with carter braxton worth on this one. >> jeff, are you interested in what you see at the levels for amazon and google? >> yeah, so we were actually in the market today as buyers of amazon, so we're putting our money, i guess, where my mouth is today, and the chart is very interesting. i mean, it's finally punching above that 200-day moving average, which it had a problem doing a couple months ago. if you listen to our analysts,

you hear aws enterprising gets you alone to the current value so other retail services for free the way he's valuing the company. for me all along the story has been the higher nonmargin businesses making up 50% of sales and rises. even if there are macro head winds ahead, which i think there are, this is a company that improves margins and likes to take share, so we like the stock at these levels. >> tim, do you feel like these are in a safe place? >> amazon underperformed the s&p since july 2020. i look at the downward trend it's right up against some serious levels here. no question amazon underperformed apple and microsoft and carter's right on that i look at all of the cues, and steve's rooting this back to a banking dynamic that will keep people defensive i think apple is certainly one that's up against, on a relative

basis -- apple that to me looks like a place where apple starts to fail relative to the market amazon has underperformed to the market for a long time, and i think the burden of proof is still on amazon even though totally agree it's underperformed. >> coming up, make way for a new chief tweeter. elon musk taking to twitter for the new chief hire. later on "options action," mike is moeing into deere ahead of earnings next week. what's the action, and how should you trade it? those details are eaahd. stick around much more "fast money" ahead thd bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws

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welcome back to "fast money. get ready for a new top bird at twitter. elon musk confirming reports that she'll resign her post at nbs's global universal chief and take over as the ceo of the network. bringing on linda allows me to devote more time to tesla, which is exactly what i'll be doing. tesla rose when the news broke but but ended the day in red, more than erasing yesterday's gains. so, what do you make of the

stocks, guy? i know it was a big talker all around the horn. >> clearly not encouraging i'm sure he thought he'd get a much better performance on the back that tweet alone. comes down to a margin story they told us -- they beingtesl in the fall of last year, margins were going to come down, but not to the legacy auto makers until 26% for me, the line is 20%, and probably going to be below that. that's when things get dicey for te tesla. if you look at the to be, the move was heroic, but over the last three yearsthis is a stoc that's gone from the upper left to lower right in a meaningful way. i don't thinked the's price action was all that good, and feels like another day to the 153 level we saw a few weeks ago. >> i think twitter stock sold off something like 50% -- sorry,

tesla% sold off 50% since musk took over twitter. do you think any of that ground can be made up here? if so, how long does it take >> it's hard to say. i have been looking at this 155-205 level. guy said 253, so i think that's right. i said if we could hold 155, drift back to the top of the range, i think that's a possibility. to guy's point, they're not completely apples to apples but over the next couple quarters, tesla is a car company, so look at ford, gm, toyota. they've all been struggling. look at mercedes this was a stock doing quite well you say mercedes, tesla, a little more similar because of the luxury nature of the product, but that stock starting to lose momentum i struggle with the name in this environment. i think you lump it in with other stocks in general and bounce around that range until something changes, and i don't see that happening over the next

couple quarters. >> i should clarify the previous comment, tesla shares are down 60% since the deal closed. gr grasso. >> i was lucky enough to buy tesla around that $100 level i just wish i was smart enough to sell it above 200 i wish i stayed long i want to hear more about the battery and power generation ford, their margins on evs, they lose money and are hoping to get to an 8% margin, so they're doing better than any of the legacy companies or car companies period on evs, and that's the reason he's plague around with price, because he can. i think in the next couple months you'll probably see a return of the stock. >> we could spend a lot of time talking about this, but i think twitter is a winner today, too twitter needed the right kind of leadership, and i think this is a really exciting day and i think you're going to see more

moves to follow. >> although ironic of course he hires a woman that's quite a department in the ad space when he wasn't looking for that to start. he wanted to go subscription. >> she's going to help a lot. up next, we'll reveal our chart of the week. is this chart so bad it's good traders starting to give it a second look. stick around to see what it is and throughout may, cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage. >> it's really important for allies and those not in the asian community to understand some of the values and the cultural nuances and cultural beliefs of asians, right for example, we're brought up to be super humble, to be modest, to not tout our accomplishments, to work hard, to keep our heads down, to be quiet, to not boast, to not brag. those are sort of the opposite things that you need to have to be successful in corporate america. but just knowing that and knowing that there's differences

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♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ welcome back to "fast money. time for our chart of the week it's the kre, regional bank etf, closing in the green today, but down 5% since monday with regionals now down an average of 38% on the year, is it the time to buy tim, what do you think >> well, it's not the time to buy with two hands, it's the time to think about diversify

communication. but if you're buying a group, and sometimes etfs make a lot of sense -- everybody's on one side of the boat on this trade. the valuation is at a place that looks interesting. it's ironic, because going into 2023, everyone knew regional banks had -- on the horizon. being able to analyze and mod and assess risks around deposit flight is not something the most serious bank analysts can do i think you have a place here -- i'm not betting on an fdic i think they're going to have to do something more importantly we've seen these banks had better deposits than people thought. >> jeff, what do you make of what's going on here regional banks do not normally trade like this. >> no, and to be very clear, i'm not all of a sudden some big bank bull, and we're not trying to be a hero with these moves, but we are dipping a toe i think there are certain names, and a won't talk about specifics

because i think we'll still in the market early next week, but you look at praise to book levels, financial crisis levels, this is not a financial crisis moment for a lot oese banks. first republic was 72% of discount window borrowing. almost a fifth of the emergency loan borrow. so you had one bank distorting the perceived health of the overall sector if you're adding smol positions, picking spots, it's an interesting time to start looking for opportunities. >> got it. it is already time for the final tr trade. let's go around the horn guy, start with you. >> big game six on the court ibm looks all of a sudden very interesting. >> hmm jeff. >> exxon mobil really battling with the 105 support i think it breaks. trade. >> steve >> the new drug, want to make

sure i pronounce it right. >> tim >> first, happy mother's day courtney, thanks for being here today. home depot downside is limited going into the earnings it's underperformed. >> we'll watch those carefully don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next. how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. ahhh! icy hot pro starts working instantly. with two max-strength pain relievers, so you can rise from pain like a pro. icy hot pro.

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rights now on "options action," look closely. does this chart show a market that's standing firm in the face of adversity or look more like a heart beat heading towards a flat line? on a day when consumer rank drags down the indices, we'll address. we focus on one that's at a cross roads of conflicting indicators we're goin