linda to bring advertising to linda -- >> which doesn't advertise >> getting more competition. >> putting her in the inner circle obviously people are optimistic, anyone who knows her knows that's a good thing. >> we are off the session highs. dow is up about 100 at the highs currently down about 40. big week next week with retail and consumer names >> target and walmart. >> let's get to the judge. carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, the big question about big tech. is the trade still a winner or should you take some profits after this year's strong start we asked the investment committee that question. joining me for the hour steve weiss, josh brown and and as it's anastasia amoroso. i do feel like, josh this is a good time to take the temperature of what's happening in big tech and alphabet is up 10% alone.

amazon had a great week as well and then year to date the stocks are the ones everybody has been talking about for all of the obvious reasons they're up and in most case as minimum of 30% meta a double, 100%. what now for these stocks? >> i think nobody, even the bears, would say these stocks are up for no reason the fundamentals, while not as hot as they were in 2021, are pretty good i would say across the board. it's not high growth anymore the good news is that's not the expectation. these companies have done a great job passing on cost to consumers. they've done a great job focusing on the areas of their business that still are in a secular growth mode. they've laid off employees, which wall street loves, perversely, and they've basically done a better job of returning capital to shareholders than companies in any other industry you could think of you're talking about dividends you're talking about buybacks. so this is why, i think, these stocks can remain okay

i don't know that we're going to see a repeat of the performance we've seen year to date. it would be pretty hard to do. >> don't need to you have a year's twoworth of gs in the first four months, but you're not painting a picture that sounds very much like you think these stocks are going to give a large portion of what they've done so far up >> here is where i'm going with this you will sell them and then what are you going to do? if you tell me, well, i'm going to sell them and earn 5.25% cash in an account at, i don't know, public or flourish or one of these apps, okay that's an answer i will own t-bills that's an answer i don't hate that. you're just basically changing the risk profile of what you're doing with that bucket of assets if you tell me i'm getting out of these and i will start buying heavy machinery or deep cyclicals, i'm not for that trade. i would rather stick it out with large cap tech the devil you know better than the devil you don't. and we're not getting the kind of economic news that i think would make you want to look for

cyclical exposure. >> okay. >> i think that's why people are staying put. that's where they are so far so good >> i'm going to go to jim right out of that because you have been looking for more cyclical exposure and urging our viewers to do just that at the expense in large part of tech. >> it's a question of degree, and this is not at any point have i said sell all of your tech and go to cyclicals i own alphabet, i own apple -- >> it's not a matter of selling and going to but predisposed saying i favor these >> that's exactly right, scott perfect. thank you. and i like what josh just said this isn't an, oh, my god, these stocks, the faang stocks, are going to suck from here. that's not the comment we need to look at what the numbers actually are take microsoft and apple, they're about 14% of the s&p 500 market cap weighted index. generally speaking ask yourself where do you think the next five percentage points of those two will be, to the upside or down

side personally to the down side. not because they're terrible stocks but because, in my thesis, which most people know, you have better economic growth coming from the hard asset sectors -- industrials, as we're building factories, as we're building structure, as we're catching up on industrial production from the boeings, gms and fords of the world i could very well be wrong i'm not saying i know the future with certainty what i'm saying this is how i read the tea leaves. i see better earnings growth from the industrials, energy and materials. that's why i'm favoring it >> one thing and then i know we'll go to anastasia. i'm sorry. these stocks don't have to go from 14% to 20% on the s&p it's conceivable they could. it's happened before but what's actually supporting these names are buybacks so you actually could have them from a market cap perspective remain static from an index construction perspective, not get any bigger, but have the stocks continue to work. these are two of the biggest

buybacks maybe of all time >> yeah. before we go to anastasia, i want to make this clear, i'm not saying that apple and alphabet are terrible stocks. i own them >> we've got it. >> in my opinion, and everybody knows my reasons why, i see better return potential going ahead, going forward, from those cyclical sectors that's why i favor it. >> i want anastasia before we get to weiss to settle it. >> sure. it's a good debate i settle with josh on this one for now. this is not an accident big tech performed the way it did you think about the earnings growth potential i looked at the big faang stocks today and the two-year average that's expected from that. it is double digits between 15% and 23%, where else can you find that in the s&p 500? you probably can't if you look at the balance sheets of these stocks, they don't have the leverage that some of the other companies have if you look at small caps, for example, there's a lot of floating rate exposure there that's not the case with some of the big tech companies

the other point josh made, where else are you going to go when you have the banking sector that's still in turmoil, the energy demand, which is actually okay but the supply is now an issue. so energy trade has lost a little bit of luster where else are you going to go i think when it's all said and done if this is a fed that is pausing and this is an economy that everybody is waiting for a recession to still happen, i think all the flows will go back to tech. and the last point on that, buybacks, yes. there's been record authorizations, buyback authorizations, but they're not being executed except for big tech is finally coming out and starting to execute them i still favor tech >> the mistake may end up being assuming that because these stocks have done so well that, oh, well, they've done so well so that's going to mute what they do from here or their valuations now have gotten so stretched. let me say for a moment, piper sandler, for example, looks at a meta, which is a double

basically, and they say they still see multiple quarters of beat and raise potential they think estimates for the second quarter of '23 into the rest of the year look conservative look conservative. >> i think there's a thing, also, a human thing, people get bored. they want a new story, a new place to go. why don't people like lebron he's been so good for like 20 years now. i don't want to say people are sick of it, it's just not a story to tell. it's the same thing with apple oh, you're buying apple, eye roll mean while, the stock is going up i think there's also this thing where people think they look smarter when they're contrarian, and i get that and i try to do that, too, sometimes the herd is not always wrong and this kind of thing, scott, to your point, could go on longer than a lot of other people think it could >> weiss, on that note, because

i think it segues perfectly to someone like you who has been negative throughout, and you have dabbled in big tech and you haven't stayed very long and alphabet is a prime example of that, right? meta is a good example you buy alphabet, you sell it. you buy this, you sell it. you bought alphabet back on monday after the close, and tell us why >> well, it's pretty simple. ai is just an incredible theme in the market. people can't get enough of it. i've probably seen ten private ai deals, so people want to be there. and when alphabet came out after the close and announced that they're going to come out live with products in an attempt to catch up with microsoft, i thought it would be a great trade. long term view hasn't changed that they may experience pressure on their search from microsoft, but, look, if amd is having a monster move, despite the fundamentals on just rumors

that they are getting to ai, going to be the default chip for ai next to nvidia, then you have a real announcement, sort of have to be foolish not to take advantage of it if you can trade stocks so i think it has a little more momentum to go but, scott, if i could chime in on debating big tech, let's not make this something so mysterious and scientific. here is the bottom line. investors -- most investors including virtually everybody on the show except for me, doesn't have the freedom of choice they're not the asset allocators they're giving capital to put into equities, most of them that come on can't play fixed income. can't play credit. so they can beat their chest saying, yes, i have the freedom of choice. i can be 10% or 20% in cash, but the tail is not going to wag the dog. they're going to go to what is safe in a challenging economic environment while keeping up the dialogue, the narrative, that things are okay.

so when you see in the headlines every day and when their investors see in the headlines every day apple close to a new high, meta up 150%, nvidia, they don't want to explain to their investors, their clients, why they don't owe tn them so they own them i do think the best places to be because they have balance sheets, they're cash cows, they are, you know, buying back stock, they are paying dividends. but let's not make a mistake about this zuck, a great ceo. he overhired dramatically and now is cutting heads >> so? >> i remember back in the day when heads were being cut that was a negative for the market. now, man, if you cut 100% of your workforce, your stock will quadruple. yes, they are more efficient but make no mistake why they're there. it's the best place to be in a very broken neighborhood

>> well, the question is how long is it going to be the best place to be? i don't know, why bother trading in and out and in and out and coming up with reasons as to why you sold it and now you're buying it back the ai story -- >> i'm not coming up with reasons. the reasons are there, scott the reasons are there. i'm coming in because -- and going out -- because i talk to people every day that run businesses, that own real assets, okay and they tell a completely different story as to what's going on in the business world with the economy than the long only portfolio managers. that's why i'm in and out. i don't believe, unlike jim, that industrials are the place to be when you've had a solid year of rate increases and going from 15 years of free money to now a restrictive environment. that's going to hit industrials. and, by the way, the ones who will benefit and it's a legit theme, are the ones that will be building for the onshoring not having the major capex cycles

where they have to build the warehouses, have to build the manufacturing plants why would you ever buy a stock in front of a capex cycle? you wouldn't >> i'm going to smooth the waters first by agreeing with steve on something no, come on, you know he's always trying to get my goat steve, i'm going to agree with you on something that there is career risk if you don't do what the herd is doing in terms of investing in tech, and that's something i feel every day and my clients pressure me on and say why are you the way you are? and the reason -- i've already laid out the reason, a cogent thesis, right or wrong, time will play out. you are right about the momentum aspect i disagree what ceos are saying. clearly you and i speak to a different group of business leaders. there's no question about it because the messages that i hear from, say, the craig billings of wynn resorts, ed bastions, i can go down a long list here what they're saying is, yep, we're aware of the macro

environment. it ain't showing up in our results now or what we see in the immediate future steve, we're clearly talking to a different group of business leaders. >> jim, we're not. well, yes, we are, but, no, we're not. i talk to company ceos, also, but they are also private company ceos >> name them i just named three and can name more >> can i say one thing i think you're both right. >> no, you can't let me finish the thought. >> i definitely can. i'll pull the wire, dude >> finish the thought. >> the public company ceos are sitting there with lawyers in the room they can't tell you something different than they've said. >> that's so wrong >> they're managing company investors. it's not wrong >> that's so wrong. >> can i say one thing all you have to do is look at the divergence between the russell 2000 and the s&p 500 to understand why both jim and steve can be right at the same time

the smaller of the company owner you talk to, the more challenging the environment. the s&p 500 -- i've said this before but it's important this is 500 michael jordans every company in the s&p 500 is the best company in its industry in the whole world talking to somebody that owns a business on main street, you're probably not going to get the same confidence that you're going to get from the biggest, most well capitalized, most efficient, most well-run companies in the world. so look how bad the russell has been this year i think it's actually negative, and yet the qs are up huge the s&p not up huge but having a good year. that dichotomy can exist and steve and jim can both be right. it's a challenging environment for most companies, and then you have these companies that don't need to roll debt, don't need to borrow money, don't necessarily need to worry about how they're going to pay their bills next quarter, and that, i think, is what you're seeing on the screens every day. it's just not representative of

how most business owners feel right now. >> josh, i agree with you, but with the caveat my conversation is not just main street america. i spoke to one my private company that generates $300 million a year in ebitda, another ceo who runs one of the largest freight and shipping companies in the world and i can go on. they're private companies. they don't want to be public jim, i'm not going to give you names but it's a mistake to assume that i'm only speaking to somebody who owns a hardware store on main street >> you guys can each talk to whoever the heck you want to talk to, it actually means absolutely zero in terms of where the actual stocks and the stock market is going to go. i mean, you can talk -- >> that's just not true. >> yes, it obviously is. >> it's not true >> it obviously is >> it's going to go where the market will go where the economy goes, right? >> well, they are sort of two

different things, and with all the gloom and doom about the economy, the stock market has held in there pretty well, and for those -- >> 50% of stocks are down year to date. >> for those sitting in a bunker to start the year and didn't want to play the stocks that got beaten up badly last year like mega cap tech, are learning that the market can continue to get away from you even if your overall view to be cautious to be right, sometimes it's time to take profits in this area, one of the few, that has really done well over the first four plus months of this year. >> i don't think you want to be out of big tech, and i don't think you want to be trimming it we talked about maybe selling calls. that actually doesn't pay you at this moment because the implied volatility on call option has collapsed. i wouldn't do that i want to go back to the point we discussed before which is investors are looking for a new story. guess what, there is a new story

in tech. there is a new story in big tech which is artificial intelligence and when you talk to global i.t. managers they'll tell you artificial intelligence is here. it's now and it's just getting started. actually to bridge the gap here with jim as well, guess what, artificial intelligence is not only happening in the big tech stocks, it's also happening in the industry as well if you think about, for example, the factory floor of the future will be populated by robots. they're going to have 5g technology and they're also going to be using artificial intelligence i think, scott, in this market environment where everybody is waiting for a recession, you're looking for a growth story and the tech sector is delivering that growth story but to the extent that you can find tech-enabled industrials i also like that trade as well. >> the other question, jim, is whether the market is so far ahead of itself on the idea of the fed coming to the proverbial rescue by pausing now,

throughout, and then cutting and that's what bank of america is talking about today maybe not a good idea for the fed to pause maybe june risk isn't debt ceiling but another month of rate hike, jobs and inflation data what do you want to make of that there is a view and jeremy siegel professed it once again to us earlier this week, a couple days ago, hey, if the fed does -- if the fed responds, ie cuts, you could do 10% to 15%. >> i was on when professor siegel spoke and what i took from that he was saying if the fed responds quickly in terms of cuts then maybe we could get that 10% to 15%. he intimated and i totally feel the fed will not respond quickly, they'll be late to cuts for somebody who is bullish on the industrial activity of the u.s. economy, you're actually not hoping for rate cuts you're saying, okay, wait a second 25 years ago the fed funds rate and the whole yield curve, we're

in the 4s and 5s for most of the '90s we can live at this level of interest rates what would be bad is if they don't pause. that will put so much pressure on the regional banking system i can't see a good outcome in terms of cuts, i'm counting on industrial activity, overall economic activity, powering through the lagged effects of the fed's rate hikes last year >> it's crazy how vociferously the bond market is pricing in cuts >> it is crazy >> at the end of the year before we've done 500 basis points worth of rate hikes. unemployment has responded by going from 3.6 to 3.4% and they're pricing in cuts four months from now? maybe it happens and there's some catastrophe -- >> you have to think there's a technical aspect -- >> hang on, weiss. >> everybody was short treasuries and now everybody is trying to get back into the treasuries and as a result the yields are down. we're extrapolating the cuts >> it might be pricing something

else i'm with you on that >> weiss >> i mean, josh, you're just so right. be careful what you wish for if you're a bull and it's in your forecast for rate cuts because that's only going to happen if the economy is in a tailspin so you don't want rate cuts as your base case and too many do anastasia is right in terms of chasing yields or yields have come down, but that's also a flight to safety it's not just chasing yields i would not look at that we can always talk about how bond market -- sometimes equity investors. those who do it for a living can't figure it out either so to me it's just technical, a flight to safety, and it does not predict what the fed is going to do. >> jim, i want to come back to you for a moment and ask you how you can be so overwhelmingly bullish on the industrial economy when you look at copper on pace for the worst week since february, when you look at your cleveland cliffs and steel

stocks have been under tremendous pressure, that stock down 18.5% in a month. >> consumer sentiment is rolling. >> down 31% on the year. sentiment is rolling over. a lot of the industrial metals are exceptionally weak oil is weak. fourth weekly drop that doesn't exactly tell me a bullish story about the industrial economy now you can try and tell yourself one, but let's speak real >> let's address that because those are facts that you just portrayed. i don't disagree with them, but what i would say the facts have been changing pretty darned rapidly. let's go back five months ago, the beginning of the year everybody was like we're going to have one hell of a crash landing, a recession that will be ugly. two months later, does anybody remember the no landing scenario we're taking off nothing is stopping it the banking situation changed the narrative to a crash landing which is reflected in copper it's reflected in what you're talking about with cleveland-cliffs >> copper is not down because

the banks. copper is down because the economic data has been weakening. it has >> not all of it and not the all-important labor. now, yes, you'll say weekly jobless claims last week's labor report, what i'm saying here it's not all bad and here is my perspective you know my perspective is talking to companies take cleveland-cliffs, i see the share price. i know where the share price is. this is a company beating on its estimates. estimates are going up in the present tense. estimates are going up the valuation is ridiculously cheap. they've delevered, are raising prices volumes are going up capex is going down. the only thing going wrong is the share price. one of those two things is wrong. either the operations of the company are saying the right thing or the share price is saying the right thing >> is oil wrong? is copper wrong? >> tin wrong is zinc wrong? >> for the moment. >> they're all wrong >> i look at those charts. a very good chart was done this morning about all those, zinc,

iron ore, steal. they've gone up, down, and now up again it's schizophrenic and i'm not insulting anyone who has that condition, this market is all over the place and if you try to follow the short-term moves you're going to get whip sawed >> why is the shareholder base of cleveland-cliffs willing to have this stock cut in half and still not come in -- i'm just looking at it. it has a low that it made like a lot of stocks in the fall of '22. it looks like it's challenging that level there's absolutely no sign in sight that level will hold and if it breaks below that your next level of support is single digits i'm not rooting for that to happen and i'm not saying i expect that to happen. i don't follow this company at all. just purely looking at price action, how could you be so sure when every other person involved with this stock is on the other side >> i left out a key point. a couple weeks ago the ceo, two other officers and a director,

bought shares on the only market that's kind of an important point. now i'm not ignoring what you're saying, josh i'm not ignoring what you're saying, scott. what i'm saying is, it's not the shareholders who are selling these shares shareholders like me, like the officers, are buying these shares who is selling them? it's probably algos and hedge funds saying recession, recession, recession hard landing, hard landing, hard landing. sell steel stocks. maybe they're right. maybe i'm right. i think i'm right, i've done my analysis >> that's in some ways, i don't mean this to be -- >> go ahead. >> -- so negative but an insult to the intelligence of real investors who may believe there's no reason to own stocks like that now with leading economic indicators declining. china is certainly not having as robust of a rebound as many thought. that's one of the reasons why you had a horrible week in the commodity space as a direct result of the data out of china.

not everything negative is driven by bots and by algos and by this and that >> i'm not disagreeing with you. what i'm trying to say is it's a time frame difference and that's why i was going back to the beginning of the year and doing this and this. if you are cut out to be a short-term trader, god bless you. i'm a long-term investor and what i see coming from these companies is not just cleveland-cliffs, it's wynn resorts, it's gm, is, frankly, positive in the long run up next, we have a downgrade of disney today. jim owns that. we will get his reaction to the call shares down nearly 9% this week. disney reporting earnings earlier in the week. do not miss al michaels. he joins us with a look ahead to this season of "thursday night football" on amazon prime. the schedule is just out he loves the markets, too. kw re talking those as well in just two minutes qualif? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances.

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welcome back to "the halftime report. disney was downgraded to peer perform at wolfe it could weigh on the stock for the foreseeable future subsid disappointed.

i don't think we had a chance to talk to you after disney >> it was a busy day, as you know, yesterday. it seems strange to downgrade now but, okay, wolfe can do whatever they want to do i'm not happy about sublosses but note they raised prices considerably and the fact they didn't lose more subs when they raised prices by 20% is actually a fairly decent sign now i'm not going to say all is well here. there's pressures. i think we have to look at this again from a time frame perspective. bob iger has a long game plan of cutting costs and raising revenues and i think he's on the path to doing both of those. it wasn't going to happen in one or two quarters. i know there's a ceo transition that we're looking for with mr. iger, but i think the business change is on track although that was an ugly quarter. >> netflix, which you used to own, is going for its eighth consecutive day of gains it may be a little negative as we came on the air but we have a

long day to go it did break above its 50 day on monday and that's been above its 200 day. there it is there. >> the stock looks great one of the interesting things that's happened over the last year we've gone from worrying about, oh, my god, there's so much competition in streaming and it's so expensive to make content to, wait a minute. maybe the top three or four streaming platforms are going to have the economies of scale and maybe they're going to have the upper hand when they're dealing with writers, when they're dealing with production houses, et cetera, and the talent. so i think a lot of the spending is going to get better, but netflix is also killing it on content. they have hit show after hit show and that helps the subscriber numbers, the main thing wall street is focused on, that and cash flow they're doing well in growth this is the only profitable streaming company. it's the biggest and the only one actually earning its keep. i think that's why the stock continues to trade well.

>> so back to jim, not to pick on you, it is what it is, paramount hit a new 52-week low today. it's the lowest since may of 2020 it's a multiyear low down 10% week to date barclays cuts the price target to 13. they maintain their sell rating. >> it's a bad scene. i'm really unhappy about this. you know that. and i'm looking for the exit, to tell you the truth the amount of streaming losses they're having, the reports that are going on about the unmitigated spending on content is very disturbing they do, and i said this last week, they do have a mass of subscribers. they should monetize that. i'm not sure sherry red stone will allow the company to be sold they should sell the company a lot of people would like 60 million subscribeerrs in paramon plus and 80 million in pluto that's a lot of subscribers. >> if you're playing for an

event at this point, that seems to say everything because that was not anywhere close to what your strategy -- >> it's changed, scott >> she would rather be in control of this thing as a $5 stock than sell it for 20. the market is telling you that, everyone that actually understands the thinking in the redstone camp is telling you there's not going to be a deal here watch, there will be one monday morning. it doesn't seem like the market believes -- >> it will be for potentially less than some would have otherwise -- >> it can't be a deal in its current incarnation. >> here is the one variable i would throw at you this is not a good situation i'm not happy about it sherry redstone had a considerable decrease in income from the shares that she owns on the dividend cut i think that may change her mind >> this is personal. she spent her whole life trying to get control of this >> you said you're losing your

patience, looking for the exit >> yep >> where is the exit how long are you going to be willing to stay with this? i only ask you this because i feel you have a responsibility when you continue to talk positively about a stock that seems to be in some respects broken, having some severe challenges, but yet you have a willingness to stay with it and express your views to our viewers, which i appreciate the honesty and candor and your ability to do that, but it cuts both ways. now people are sitting on a stock that's gotten smoked and they're probably a little angry about it, and i want to know what you're thinking about the actual exit. >> paramount is broken i have a portfolio of stocks -- there's a lot of stocks the share prices are down but i still believe in them. you know what they are this one is broken, and i'm pretty damn mad about it what you do -- i don't think you in anger sell. you look at the valuation of the company. you look at what's going on in terms of the value of the subs

i don't think this is the right place to sell. you are looking for the exit the idea it will go to $30, $40 has changed. this is why you build a portfolio. not every single one works out i have a lot of egg on my face not every single one works out >> we appreciate that, jim coming up, we have your earnings setup for next week we have three dow stocks on deck home depot, walmart and cisco systems. we'll find out where the committee stands and we do still veha al michaels coming up. it's awe. beauty. the measure of progress. it's where people meet people. where cultures and bonds are made between us. where we create things together. open each other's minds. raise each other's ambitions. and do together, what we can't do apart. this is space for dreams. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.

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welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm pippa stevens and here is your cnbc news update. homeland security secretary mayorkas released a statement regarding immigration enforcement efforts saying they are ready to humanely process and remove people without a legal basis to remain in the u.s. mayorkas adding the administration is ready for the transition of 24,000 agents

stationed at the border to help enforce immigration laws and dozens of new federal grand jury subpoenas went out in connection with the ongoing corruption investigation into new jersey senator robert men menendez he has been under criminal investigation for months as to whether he emproperly took cash and gifts from the owners of a meat business democratic senator and the company's owners deny any wrongdoing and netflix is planning to cut spending by $300 million this year according to a report from "the wall street journal. netflix recently held an internal meeting where they reiterated there are no plans for a hiring freeze or additional layoffs scott, back to you >> pippa, thank you. that's pippa stevens big batch of earnings are due out next week. we have retailers in focus, home depot. jim, you own that. target cut to 320 from 340 it's before the bell on tuesday. what do you think about depot here the stock is down 8.5% year to

date. >> 320 wouldn't be a bad return. expectations are pretty low in home depot and lowes at this point in time, no pun intended there is still demand, home sales are low because of an inventory problem. people don't want to sell. they're sitting on low mortgages. we get that. the housing market is slowly recovering and as long as interest rates don't spike back up above 7% on mortgage rates that recovery is likely to continue and benefit home depot. >> weiss, target, a stock you used to own. >> you know, i think cornell is a fantastic ceo. i had a few missteps he hasn't had the same experience in terms of reporting quarters that beat and raising i think that's over the hump they have to be through inventory issues at this point so i like it i would look for an entry point. i believe there will be a trade

down and they are known for value as is walmart. so we'll see if the stock gets hit, then i'll likely be a buyer. would have to be down to the 120s, 130 level. >> speaking, josh, of walmart, named a top q1 pick ahead of deutsch, the same analyst who likes ulta, which was your stock summit pick, i think you used to own walmart at one point, didn't you. >> i've owned it multiple times, yeah are we talking ulta or walmart >> we can talk both. you can segue to ulta if you want to. >> it probably doesn't trade as much with other retailers as it does with the staples. walmart holds up no matter what happens. ulta is more interesting eight straight quarters of revenue growth year over year. actually saw revenue acceleration in q3 and q4 of 2022 how many companies can you really say that about. they are eating sephora's lunch.

it's only a $24 million market cap but is a category killer not terribly expensive the stock looks really good, too. i don't own ulta at the moment i would much rather look at something like that than a walmart. we will take a quick break when wecome back play-by-play man al michaels, the legend, is standing by to talk amazon prime's "thursday night football" schedule of course we're talking some stkstooc, o. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets

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the nfl revealing its schedule last night in prime time including its slate of thursday night games on amazon prime video. joining us now the man who will call the action, legendary al michaels good to see you as always. >> judge, i'm very excited "thursday night football" has been around for ten years. cbs had it in '14 and '15 and then nbc and cbs shared it and then fox had it for four years. this will be the tenth year, second on amazon, and i think the schedule is probably the best it's ever been for a thursday night schedule. we start minnesota at philadelphia is fantastic. the giants at san francisco,

detroit takes on green bay detroit is kind of the it team this year, the way they played at the end of last year in the detroit/green bay game end of last season was terrific, knocking green bay out of the playoffs so the point is here i think any of the networks, fox, nbc, cbs, espn, they would take those three games right off the bat, and we're happy to have them >> the league did you guys right. >> they did. >> i don't want to hear about the thursday night schedule not being good you touched on a few of the games. you have panthers/bears. bengals/ravens with lamar and his new contract dolphins/jets black friday that will be exciting with aaron rodgers. seahawks/cowboys you're set up for some really great games. >> we have aaron rodgers twice, in fact, on black friday and then at cleveland. the black friday game is fascinating. amazon really wanted this and the league thought it was a

great idea and gave us miami against the jets in the meadowlands. the last time i did a thanksgiving day game in the meadowlands was the infamous butt fumble game with mark sanchez about 11 years ago so you have new england taking on pittsburgh that's always going to be a matchup to be savored. i think, scott, on black friday, so tens of millions of people will have the triptofin hangover >> we're looking forward to seeing you as always you want to talk some markets while we have a little bit of time left? >> you have josh there josh, here is the question for you. so you know i'm an etf guy and i'm leveraged and i know you hate the banks between the qqqs and the sso

leverage, qqqs straight forward, the sso has given me more bang for my buck. looking ahead, which of those two would you prefer >> looking ahead let's say the second half of this year i think the qs outperformance will continue versus the s&p, but i'm not necessarily bearish s&p. the only thing i would say on the sso because it's leveraged you don't want to own it through a down trend, so consider a trailing stop. i would use a trailing 50-day stop updated, friday at the close. that way you have the best of both worlds. you can own it if we get into a down trend, you do something else, plenty of options. >> and is it time for me to get rid of my fes, the banks on steroids what should i do with that >> live by the sword, die buy the sword with that one. i don't know what your tax situation is, but if you need to harvest something, harvest from there. >> question for farmer jim farmer jim, because of you, i

own cleveland-cliffs i plan to live, let's say, about ten more years before they put me in the ground, will it still be a tax loss, or will it be in the black? >> i will tell you personally this is a very big position for me personally. i'm right there with you i think the numbers really justify this, al this year's estimate for free cash flow is around $1.8 billion. the overall enterprise value is about $13 billion. that's a huge cash onnen price value return you may have heard earlier, i pointed this out and this is an important point, the ceo bought about $1.5 million worth of shares just a few weeks ago. so did a director and a couple of other companies prices for their products are going up, costs are going down, volumes are going up i think you just have to be patient. i hate to tell you that, but that is the biggest virtue in investing and i'm right there

with you >> farmer jim, i just hope when they put me in the ground, that cleveland-cliffs is not under a freeway overpass i want a good plot somewhere promise me that. >> he's the best >> let's make sure we talk before you do anything rash with the shares >> yes >> not for nothing, i have you way more than ten, al. keep it up >> i hope so no vegetables, you know that >> yes, that's right i do know that you be well. we'll see you soon and we can't wait to see you on thursday nights we have a great schedule the great al michaels. "grade my trade" up next sher ins is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? aren't we all just looking for the hottest stocks? (fisher investments) nope. we use diversified strategies to position our clients' portfolios for their long-term goals. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions for you, right? (fisher investments) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money, only when your clients make more money?

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as inflation comes down. growth slows down and investors are looking for a hedge. the other one last thing i'll mention that i like about this part of the curve is that's where the institutional investors are allocated. so if you're an insurance company, you buy on the longest part of the curve, and i think that's going to be a support for tlt. a quick break and come back and do "final trades," next. ♪

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now. all right, the dow is down 160 "final trades," we've been largely holding in i'll go to dracula first what do you got, dracula >> okay. i've got two trades. first, i want to think about the games, so premium for everybody else six-month t-bills. that's what i'm buying vz a good weekend. anastasha? >> you know the saying, don't fix what's not broken? the trend or the nasdaq is positive right now the moving averages are moving in the right direction, so i'm sticking with that tech trade. >> farmer jim? >> cisco systems this is the steady eddie i've owned this for ten years. it matches the s&p 500 you add that dividend on top, and i like this for the long-term.

>> earnings next week. >> yes >> along with deere, another one of these >> and home depot. this was quiet next week's big. >> all right go ahead >> next tara energy and let's go, knicks >> win or go home tonight. i'll see you on "closing bell. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange" on this friday. i'm kelly evans. a possible partner for regional banks. private equity names like blackstone are popping up. could they be part of the banking sector in a bigger way we'll talk to one investor about this and the analyst tells us why he sees 60% upside from here. and remember when inflation wa