first time we've seen that in over a century lots of underlying components that that downtrend could continue our base case is that the fed is done with this rate hiking cycle and probably will start cutting maybe by the fourth quarter or the first half of next year, depending on what happens with economic data coming >> elyse, thanks so much, have a great weekend. >> thank you. >> you need to know where the market is, you can see it down there on the bottom. i'm not going to -- i'm going to say good-bye to you. plans, 87 degrees today. going to stay right here and do fast money. >> no, no, "squawk on the street" is up next ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber. banks get some relief from thursday's pressure, optimism about the debt ceiling as well even as that white house meeting was postponed in the next week macro picture, those talks delayed, a fed grch says more hikes might, in fact, be needed.

plus, twitter has a new ceo. elon musk will be stepping down from that role he'll still have lots of responsibilities at the company. and shares of tesla are popping perhaps as a result of the head of the open. media space as well, disney got a downgrade at wolf, stock weak yesterday and we'll talk about why netflix is seeing its longest stock winning streak in nearly two years. start with the news that's very close to home, of course, but also involves twitter, closely watched private company, we can't confirm that linda yaccarino who runs advertising at nbc universal will be tepping down or actually has stepped down from that position, and will be joining twitter as its ceo, something that was, at least, thought about as of yesterday because mr. musk tweeted something to the effect that he had found a new ceo who would be starting within six weeks. official announcement should be forthcoming momentarily, guys,

but basically she will be stepping down immediately, and then have some time, and then begin at twitter, apparently, not soon after of course, the up fronts are coming up, understanding is that they'll be handled by mark lazarus at nbcu, and somebody will be moving into her position in the interim, on an interim basis. and now twitter has a ceo, something that mr. musk had told us sometime back he was looking for, something we had reported on back in late december at least that he was actively trying to find, although it did take some time for him to settle on the right person. >> i think it's interesting, david, that he'd always been leaning towards having a technology assistant, and had been a technologist. not that well. the one thing that had been missing was the connection with advertisers. so you put a person who's advertising at the top and he stays on, that's a technologist.

>> that's the plan we know from his recent interviews, of course, when he came in at twitter, the company was in a position to potentially, he said, be bankrupt in as little as four months given its cash burn, given its interest costs, of course, as a result of the leverage buyout that he undertook, taking out over 13 billion in debt. he has cut that dramatically, saying in that recent bbc interview it's down to maybe even be profitable, obviously cutting staff from 7,800 to 1,500 people let's bring in julia boorstin, who's obviously been following this story for us as well, and has more julia? >> david, nbc universal officially announcing that linda yaccarino will be leaving the company and mark marchal is global advertising and partnerships, reporting up to mark lazarus, who's chairman of nbc the universal television and

streaming. now, there's some statements in this release here from mike cavanagh, president of comcast, saying they're grateful for linda's contributions during her 12-year tenure, wishing her the best, linda yaccarino saying it's been an honor to be part of this team and everything they've accomplished together. it's my understanding she will be joining twitter as ceo, and we are looking out for an announcement from elon musk who was together with her at a wbp conference earlier this week but a big transition for lan da yaccarino who has been at cnbc's parent company nbcuniversal for a dozen years, and this comes ahead of the up front ad sales period, a crucial period for the whole media industry linda yaccarino who you have been the one to lead a big presentation that is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. on monday morning in manhattan now it looks like that's going to be led by mark marshall and

the rest of the people on linda's team and this all builds up to the cann advertising festival in june where deals are made with advertisers. big transition the question is, when will she start at twitter will it be six weeks, which is what elon musk tweeted out yesterday, or will it be sooner? will she be representing twitter at the advertising festival in cann and, of course, david, we'll see what the vision is for twitter, under her leadership. >> yeah. a couple of those questions, i think i might be able to answer. my understanding is lazarus will do the brief presentation at the up fronts and the expectation is she will have to sit out for a bit so she gets to enjoy a few weeks off. perhaps it will be as much as six weeks, julia, before -- you know, they don't want her necessarily working at twitter actually while the up fronts are going on there will be a gap. no longer at nbc but won't be at twitter, perhaps for the six weeks. >> but i do think that mark

marshall, who's worked closely with linda over the years will have a presence at the presentation as well this is where nbcuniversal talks about all its content, advertising and targets capabilities i think this is going to be an opportunity to showcase all of the team that linda's been working with, and that it's not just a one-woman show, she certainly has been leading the charge in terms of improving the technology capabilities, targeting and measurement of what nbc universal offers. >> right thanks, julia, of course, jim, it's going to be more interesting perhaps what she can accomplish at twitter, getting advertisers back on the platform and then the question, you know, also, does it mean that he has more time for tesla? that company seems to be pretty well managed at the moment, many would say regardless of whether his attention has been perhaps spread around other places. >> i used to speak a great deal to the people who ran twitter. one of the things i always wanted to know is could you do a big ad campaign with a big

consumer product company in the way that they would like, or a car company, maybe the kinds of exact companies that lynnia yaccarino was bringing into our company. now, there's a very nice statement here that includes mike cavanagh, and linda yaccarino, very friendly there's not that much money these days to go around to everybody. what happens if you were pursuing a very good deal for nbc, and elon musk says i'd like that deal for twitter. >> okay. but, the up fronts will play out over the next -- it will be a fairly slow process, my understanding. >> the rest of -- >> he doesn't, but i think that is the intention of why you wouldn't want her to go to work immediately for twitter if you're nbc. >> nothing that -- >> i believe there is something along those lines. i don't think it's in the release. >> elon musk is the kind of guy who might say, you know what, what have you been working on?

>> why wouldn't he >> good. i wanted that to be clear. because they -- all the problems that twitter has been on exactly the kind of work that linda yaccarino would be doing, and carl, as much as i love the people at twitter, and i am a top ten -- don't that from the previous ceo, putin, a little after me but i always was interested in what kind of campaign they could run and they were never able to tackle exactly what she could do so i think it's a very interesting moment for twitter, and for linear networks. >> yeah, makes you wonder what happens to the emphasis on subscriber growth, twitter blue. that $8 incrementally less important? >> really? >> meantime, for tesla, peb bush puts a number on it. they think is whole thing is worth $15 to tesla shares, that onus of his duties to twitter, that he can now focus on cars. >> look, that's great.

talk about a dollar sign representing a man, it's not like he was billing billable hours, but i do think there are a lot of people who feel if he were not doing rockets, tesla would be higher. this is musk what you see is what you get so, i don't buy it i think that what tesla is about is recalls, good cars that are charged too much, and not about his time, do you think i'm wrong, david a distraction, the likes of twitter, made it so that tesla's not as valuable? >> i don't know. i mean, the markets seem so think so, although the stock obviously had a significant rebound a bit this year. >> right. >> but that certainly was the concern last year, towards the end of the year, when the -- once the acquisition closed, in october. >> as much as it's great that he's got a new ceo i don't think he's a person who says we've got a new ceo, i won't worry about that anymore. >> right, right. >> he's never been good at that.

>> no, he's focused on a lot of things, and works as we all know endless hours as he would -- as he's said in any number of interviews. >> we wish her well, i think that people who have worked for him have not -- they work for him, they don't work with him. >> he is still the ceo of tesla, obviously spacex, spacex, they apparently have a very strong team that does their thing then there's neurolink and the boring companies, so many other things as well it's really kind of -- it's remarkable it's the reason we talk about this man endlessly because he is as i said the most consequential businessman on the planet. >> what i'm trying to get the personalities, for a second, you've got tools that meta announced. >> this new sand box. >> sand box is brilliant, because it -- i'll tell you why in a second. but you've got everything is lining up for the web having better advertising capabilities than tv, and one of the things

that this new tool for meta can do is it basically can say, you know what, i want all the -- every time i want to look up a person's name, in the 13 million pieces of data you get every second, did they like the color blue people -- >> true, multiple versions of the same ad, text size, images. >> we don't have that in tv. we don't have that. >> not yet. >> david, people like the color blue, you're going to get a lot of blue ads, and it's psychological, it's like your brain. figuring your brain out. >> i always thought this would happen. >> what's the this >> they know that if you like the color blue you're going to get fed blue ads so you're more than likely than to buy red ads. it's worth billions of dollars. >> it leads us to the research we'll get to after the break the downgrade for disney and fox along with estee lauder and others talk about the debt ceiling. plenty of news on a.i. today,

futures for the second week in a row, pttgorey od on a friday morning. more "squawk on the street" in a moment with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. there are some things that go better... together. hey! like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. for a brighter financial future. thanks. ahh, pretzel and mustard... another great combo. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

disney, the biggest decliner again on the dow, the company streaming sublosses in q2, yesterday's 8% drop was the worst day since iger's return as disney's ceo, and today a wolf trims operating income numbers as they are increasingly skeptical about dtc profits. >> i read this piece

outstanding issue. i read this piece by wolf and it was like i just listened to david faber yesterday and i've got to put out a report because what you were talking about david, this notion of what's going to happen with linear is the real existential threat. but it's almost as if parks are such an afterthought. >> yeah. >> it does bother me because at a certain level we can talk about how strong netflix is and did we decide that netflix is so strong it doesn't need parks or to strong because it doesn't have linear? could we look at a slimmed down disney with a parks company, not enough things that are profitable away from -- >> there are not a lot of things within parks direct to consumer quite profitable this has always been, linear networks continue there. they're steady, and perhaps quickening decline. >> but you never see ip anymore

in these pieces. >> no. >> but they have ip. why isn't -- even thought about? >> i don't know. you know, jim, you mentioned this yesterday, you've talked about it not being a good call and after the show yesterday i had a couple of conversations with people who certainly agree with you, sort of talking about what they felt was not great messaging on the conference call that's what we have to go with in terms of hearing from bob iger he hasn't done an interview. and the hulu reversal, in a way, which a lot of people questioned, why wasn't there more behind that >> realtime reversal. >> sat down with me, not that many months ago, talked about not really focused on general entertainment, and you really seem to be -- now you're integrating it with disneyplus so there were some criticisms, i think, of the messaging on the call yesterday you mentioned it as well, or the call was two days ago, but people talk about it. >> it was more like -- like we're doing a call

so, already think about hulu there was very other worldly aspect of the conference call. it was not -- for a company that knows how to produce things, it was an unproduced conference call. >> yeah. >> almost like, well, i'm back, i don't know hulu seems good. >> now it's good. >> a billion dollar company, a major company, and it just seemed like that they didn't know yet which way they're going to go. >> again, a couple of people did remark on that it was also unusual for disney which has typically, my god, bob iger is probably the single best communicator there is. one of their great gifts. >> i always thought their conference calls were like a really great show. frozen but instead it was more like, you know, robin williams popeye. which i liked. >> you did like that >> jp morgan, best case that espn begins feeding direct summer 24, which they think will accelerate the ecosystemwide

linear sublosses by 3%. >> this is just -- things are happening way too fast in this world. everything's happening at a speed that i -- david, did you ever think anything would go at this speed >> we've known this is -- you know, the real question, i think, is, you've always assumed, it will end at 50 million homes. we're not near there, still well above. now i think people are saying maybe it just keeps going. it goes right through that, the 40 million, who knows where it ends and, you know, that becomes obviously a key question for profitability. by the way, the ad market is not great. up fronts coming up, not the greatest time to be selling advertising and all these companies are dealing with more resistant ad market. >> if i worked at meta, i would say this is the best of times. there's no charles dickens to be an ad salesperson at meta. they're saying, listen, we know of the 150 million people you're

trying to reach, we know the 1,238,000 who will buy who is the ultimate, david, way to be able to target people. that's why maeta's stock is whee it is, it's a great time to be in advertising. >> double for the year to date do you think there's valuation support here on disney in the low 90s? >> they're not telling the story right. i mean, the valuation is, we have 42,300 characters who the world loves, but we also lost a few people watching the nba. you've got to change the dynamic here you don't just talk about how -- they've got to just start talking about how great they are. get out of your heads is my -- my wife would say, will you get out of your head and talk about how great you are. >> talked about how great we are, they started -- the call was started by talking about. >> super mario, they congratulated us. >> congratulated us.

>> andy reid, after he had beaten the eagles, eagles played a good game, but you see the kansas city chiefs won you don't congratulate the other guy who won and beat us. i'm telling you the conference call was like -- like no other that i've ever seen disney do. it wasn't. it wasn't. it was like i was waiting for the tea cup. orbach could have saved it triple threat. >> randy could dance. >> song and dance man. we'll get kramer's mad dash countdown to the opening bell. onmo lk ret tus. back in a moment stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. rock stars. please! do you know what it takes to be a rock star? i've trashed hotel rooms in 43 countries. i was on the road since i was 16. i've done my share of bad things. also your share of bad things. we know that using workday for finance and hr

makes you great at your job. but that don't make you a rock star. ted! ted! ted! oh ted in finance. you're a rock star! hey liz in hr? can you do this? unless you work with an actual rock star. you are a rock star! thank you! who's the new guy? hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. give it up for pam. pam, you are a rock- [silence] i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ doors can take us to new adventures and long-term goals. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by helping you create a comprehensive wealth plan, with the right balance of risk and reward. doors were meant to be opened.

♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪

welcome back, got about seven minutes before we get started, final trading session of the week. thank you, friday, let's get to a mad dash talk about the largest market cap company on the planet, i believe. >> right, bigger than whole countries' markets. >> correct. >> new doing a piece, very thoughtful piece about how to value apple, and the major problem with valuing apple is that if you speak to tim cohen, he really rebels at the notion he's running a consumer packaged goods company, it's not crest, it's a tegnology company series of down numbers, no technology spot can be bought if the stock is having down numbers. right here, david, it is am almost, if you view it as consumer packaged, it's so close to clorox's valuation. in your face he's saying if it's consumer --

it's cheaper, but tech company, it's expensive if it's consumer packaged goods the stock could go to 200. that's where -- >> all right, but what do you view it as >> i've decided it's the greatest technology company that also is loved by the consumer, it's got 99% customer satisfaction, so what really it is is that -- and i speak to telephone companies and what they tell you is that when you buy -- when they get in your -- once you own one, you start layering on services that make it so that it's actually the greatest service story, not consumer packaged goods and not tech it's a platform, the best platform to serve all the things they want. >> what about this move, since the beginning of the year, i mean, is this sustainable, jim >> okay, so this was -- this was a very interesting philosophical

moment this is where we -- where people began to realize, you know what, even though they don't have a new iteration, they are starting to tell the story of people just taking all our new products in brazil, in indonesia, vietnam they're opening. but people didn't realize that you may fixate on china. we are going into a country of 1.4 billion people that only has 50 million phones, india, and they are building the infrastructure for our phones furiously overnight, like we built the rails in our country india could be, in three years, the largest ksh that's how quickly it's going. >> right. >> so they stopped focusing on china, start thinking about the other markets. and that's what they're talking about when you talk to them offline. it's really encouraging. so this is the recognition that there are other countries besides china in the world this was kind of like when you had the merceda projection, and greenland was like this, they booked the whole globe and figured out what to do

they're so much smarter than the rest of us, and they're fun. >> they are, they are a laugh riot. >> i'm not -- that's not fair. >> i'm not kidding tim cook, i've seen him dancing out there in front of stores opening bell a few minutes away. don't forget, catch us anytime, anywhere, listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast our customers don't do what they do for likes or followers. their path isn't for the casually curious. and that's what makes it matter the most when they find it. the exact thing that can change the world. some say it's what they were born to do... it's what they live to do... trinet serves small and medium sized businesses... so they can do more of what matters.

benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter.

just about 60 seconds from the final opening bell of the week, jim, you've been all over the debt ceiling negotiations, postponed into next week, although the spin was that staffs are making progress and that somehow this was a positive you buy it >> no. as a matter of fact, if you go back over the rhetoric, i'm spending a lot of time on the -- there's a period of six or seven days in 2011 where things got bad. at no point did you have the republicans saying, you know what, obama wants to default it was almost for boden. you should not say that. you could say intransigent you could say it's hard to get a

deal but no one ever said the other side is pro-default. and i don't think, david, you meet with a consortium of bankers if you're the treasury secretary unless you're looking for a possible lifeline. >> what i see bearing is that -- punch it to the fall. >> most likely outcome. >> punch meaning what? >> then they -- the budget negotiations and both sides can at least sort of say well they got what they kind of wanted, and then we go at it again. >> well, i mean, that just means we're just -- that means we're going to go into a recession, because the mind-set of america is that -- remember, america cares about social security, they care about medicare. >> when you get through that and defense spending there's very little left to actually deal with, it's like 10% of the budget you can actually -- >> it's interest, i know but there was a piece this

morning by bank of america, what we heard from the thundering herd, and it basically just talked about, is the dollar the reserve currency my favorite was should you buy gold coins and put them in your jacket they didn't say that, that's more of a 1930s phenomenon, should i add gold in my portfolio. there's a meteor headed toward earth, where should you hide i read this, and i got chills because what it really says is, we're looking at something that no one has thought about, which is what happens if the -- >> bofa, asking whether or not the real risk in june is another hike, not a default. >> yeah, another -- this is not a great time, okay, and the fact that there's only -- that only microsoft, amazon, alphabet, netflix and meta are moving up is disturbing people. >> talking about the stock

stuff. >> yesterday the nasdaq was up when i looked at the nasdaq 100 there were five up like and 95 down we are not in a situation where it's just business as usual, and everyone in these meetings, when they come out and meet the president or whatever, the level of an tipthy, acrimony is like nothing i've ever heard before. >> it's reflective of our hyperpartisan times. >> but if you -- let's say you do laurence tribe for most constitutional law scholar. >> section 4 of the 14th amendment. >> you just say, look, i have to pay, then you go to the supreme court. okay, so what are these days like you've got to put your -- >> that's a good point. >> should i go buy. >> by the way, even if they do invoke the 14th amendment and pay the markets apparently are not going to just say, oh, okay. if markets are still going to react. >> right, well, okay, what's happening today? should we buy? is this the day we want to buy

proctor? no, this is the day they argue in front of chief justice roberts and he seems to be leaning against. this is what we're going to be discussing, what justices will go which way, and that is happening in realtime, where at the same time people are downgrading estee lauder, and i don't really want to be able to figure out how to do estee lauder at the same time i'm trying to figure out where gorsuch is on this issue. >> yeah, i mean, there was discussion yesterday about permitting reform, politico did say that at least the white house thinks that would give mccarthy enough cover, you don't buy that either? you're really an alarmist on this stuff. >> i just think that when both sides say the other guy wants to default, and you know that no first term sitting president has ever won if there's a recession in their -- in their fourth year. >> right. >> and you know the quickest way to cause a recession as we saw from the october -- the october

drop in 2011 is that those stocks were all the cyclical stocks, people thought we had to go into a recession because of how long the debt talks were looking at playbook and you're a hard right republican and saying loorks ck we're not thinking about the republic today, you're saying we've got this in the bag. >> if all that's true why has there been very little technical damage here at 4140? >> they're still looking at 4235, goldman today does not change their low recession odds of 35%. >> well, i think that -- look, i don't want to present myself as a true bear because i can be constructive but i thought that yesterday was a very disspiriting day. we are now -- this was one of the most narrow rallies i've come across, the nasdaq rally, i just don't -- i want to see -- i need a little more clarity because i saw chuck schumer, senator schumer at the white house correspondents dinner.

the level of confidence that he has about rolling the republicans is so -- only matched by the level of confidence mccarthy has about rolling the democrats. this used to be about trying to figure out how to make a deal. now it's just trying to figure out who you can take down. and that's -- david, that's not like business as usual. >> no, it's not. it's not i just don't think you need to worry, jim, because really, we have a more than 50% chance that humanity is going to get wiped out anyway by a.i. >> thank god, i thought it might be -- >> pca piece. >> i thought you were going to talk about advance of decline. >> i'm not familiar with the firm. >> i was talking to ansantoli ts morning. >> chatgpt and the curse of the second law, just as the investment community and broader -- exponential rising case during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blind sided by how quickly a.i. transforms society, and the

economy, that got people's attention there, the safety risks around a.i. are huge, and we think there's more than a 50/50 chance we'll wipe out all humanity by the middle of the century. >> i think -- >> either unprecedented prosperity or, quote, we turn into paper clips. >> i saw that colgate does well in that situation, it's a stock you want to buy. >> you do, the robots use it for their teeth? >> seems like the -- it seems like under chatgpt, it's colgate. dave, i'm with people using chatgpt right now to destroy the competition. >> yes. >> and it is -- everything that you say is true. >> yeah. >> it is true, i mean, they -- they can -- you know, there's a great company called the trade desk and they're going up against alphabet, and they can tell you how to design a program that i think could eliminate, maybe, all of your advertising department, all of it.

because they're all trying to figure out what to do, but it has the answer now, that's not -- that's different from david where, what do they get? the code for the nuclear war what are you saying they get >> who's the they? >> are you going for nuclear war, what are you going for here >> montd going for anything. >> you can't wipe out half of humanity. >> not half, actually, they say all of humanity. it's a half a percent. >> you're talking about the lincoln tunnels scene in the stand, that's where you're going? >> it's not me. >> captain trips. >> some people who we assume are thoughtful talking about a phased transition that's occurring that humanity may be on the brink of such a phased transition, and if we survive it, by the way, the super intelligent a.i., the impact on growth could be comparable to what occurred during the agricultural revolution. there's at least a 50% chance we won't survive it i don't understand why you're having a hard time digesting this it's pretty simple. >> it's hard to figure out, i

used to write obituaries, it's hard to merge that obituary page to the business page. >> they're not alone in being concerned about the continued rise of a.i. and the exponential. >> bring it back -- rather than this being a biblical allegory or a religious class, can we bring it back to the notion that that level of turn does not make you feel like going and paying 180 for tesla. >> it does mean i've got about 20 good years left so might as well enjoy the heck out of them. >> life is short thesis, jim that will work. >> you know, that -- >> airbnb. >> long on money, short on time, starting to be short on money, air bnb conference, call, tapped out. david, the tapped out is the thesis that's working for every -- a lot of people are tapped out except for tap. >> it's interesting the week we've had when we heard from

lucid and fistker, and rivien. these companies consume so much capital in trying to get to profitability and make their -- get their automobiles out there. obviously rivi ne had a different story. they've been very successful in cutting costs more rapidly, perhaps, then people anticipated. didn't change production schedule and heard from wholestar, got agreely and volvo behind it, another entrant where again some disappointment there. >> looked great. terrific david, can i just -- if you -- i want to go back to david's we're all going to die thesis, not unlike billy in the scene in the predator with the knife going over the bridge. david, take the knife out for a second, did you see the numbers from richmond. >> i did not i assume they were strong. >> the chinese are not allowed to have mansions, not allowed -- i don't know if you -- there's

two mansions, manchin the senator, and mansions. >> manchin, and mansions, yes. >> so, in china, you can't show that you have a mansion, but you can show you have a watch, so richmond, and lbmh and coach, okay, these are all doing well in china. >> yes. >> how about this increasing bifurcation in china between the rich and the not rich? >> not unlike 1946. >> you've been focused on it this week. i've heard you mention it a number of times. it's interesting, you know. >> that's why, i think it was at least citi this week that looked at the policy rate cut in queue because they don't like po larity in their income. >> if you want to ask, other than the fact that david's death star thing, that this is what i'm watching because estee lauder is caught up in it. they have to travel to get it.

wynn. >> qualcomm, starbucks comps. >> if you go over skyworks solutions, chalamet is selling poorly the poor in china did not seem to get money during this period. the poor got poorer. they're adopting an american model. >> their economy has slowed dramatically from the growth rates prior. >> they're richer than ever. the rich are richer than ever in china. is this -- >> you're saying that's reflected in richmond's numbers, lvmh's numbers. >> coach. >> tapestry's numbers? >> is this what president xi was hoping for no, i mean, if we were right now, doing the chinese "squawk on the street," i think we'd all be very puzzled, you know, we'd say how about the regular consumer. >> most of it would be bleeped. >> would just be black. >> yeah, be censored so let's be thankful. >> be worried, where does nike fit? i don't know. >> that's a good question. where does nike fit in, jim? >> i've been puzzled i've never seen china, since nixon went to china, where he

went to that famous museum of the little pieces, the sculpture, and asked everyone to check the pockets on the way out. check the pockets, of these people not since that particular trip to that museum have i seen more concern about where our relations with china since ping-pong. >> jim, you've been doing work on lyft, and this new ceo david rischer, you'll have ton mad tonight. >> this is exciting. a man who's formidable competitor let's take a look at this one. >> all right >> one of the things i think you've immediately -- a terror point for all of us, the airport, there is that moment, and i think all of us experienced it, with, are we calling the wrong time, right place? it is just -- and you're in a foreign city, that you may think that the whole trip is going to go awry because of that seven to

ten minutes. you're addressing that choke point. >> we are. yeah, it's so interesting you say this look, travel is beautiful. it's how you get out, it's how you explore the world and get out of your own bubble but there's some stress sors think about it, every time you travel you go to the airport, you leave the airport, those are never fun. so we just launched yesterday a new feature, it's called pre-order, got such a simple name here's what happens. plane touches down, as soon as the wheels hit the ground and you open your lyft app, we'll say, do you have baggage or no if you don't, you hit go and by the time you get to the curb, your car will be there, if you do have baggage, no problem, we'll get it set up. when you pick your bags up, boom, by the time you get to the curb, your car is there. >> this is really important, what they're trying to do is change the face of lyft, moment you land into town once you go into town and you use lyft you may stay with lyft i don't know if you go to -- the new laguardia. >> the new laguardia is beautiful. >> you can go -- gate 75, takes you six minutes to get to the

carousel, that's six minutes of terror, do i call uber now, check -- >> i agree, and you're outside waiting because you can't do it then, you don't know exactly what pillar you're going to be at, what your numbers going to be. >> these guys have a plan. >> i like it. >> i think i want to try it. >> i like it risher by the way helped build amazon into the retail company it was and also solved, by the way, literacy. 20 million people he taught to read in china. >> what's going to stop uber from adopting their plan >> risher thinks they can get share in 30s or 40s. this feels challenging given uber's scale and breadth. >> don't underestimate this man, someone who teaches 20 million people to read in africa after building amazon into a retail empire, i don't want him as my enemy. that's a bad enemy dara is cool as i'll get out this guy's not cool, he's great. >> wow. >> yeah. >> i didn't know anything about

his background interesting. >> his background is extraordinary. this guy, he's either going to get the nobel peace prize or beat the numbers. >> maybe moat. >> maybe both. >> my cousin won the nobel peace price, did nothing to his numbers. >> nothing for his numbers >> he had a bad quarter. >> you downgraded him even though he won the nobel peace prize. >> i tell him to sell. he's so full of himself. >> pretty defensive stance, although a little bit of energy at the top here. by the way, oil is on pace before four weeks down. >> oh, my gosh. >> grand home starting to refill in june. do we believe there is that -- >> i think that they feel there's so much oil why do we even need an spr i actually think that that's true, the drilling companies and service companies are in almost in major bear market mode because people just feel that it is a bad time to drill, these

companies, david, are all trying to conserve cash, no one's liking that strategy either, the price of oil keeps going down. >> they continue to return cash to shareholders. they are -- listen, we're at highs in production in the country. we are, we're back to 12 million. aren't we? >> we can do 13, but can't do 15, not yet. >> have we talked about doing 15 >> one time -- >> old trend lines, people thought we could the trend line has 2 or 3% growth. >> you think there's that kind of demand to support that kind of supply? >> i actually thought that we would have -- i didn't think that we would have cars that use so little gasoline, e.v. matters right now. >> it does and we're going to make more of a difference in terms of as the fleet changes over, it's going to reduce gasoline demand. >> even the fed -- >> over time. >> the fed said the climate isn't that important that the fed needs to adopt it as a priority. >> who thought the russians

would be pumping furiously, and that the chinese would take it and india's taking it. i mean, we have -- we're in a bifurcated oil market right now. the russians, by the way had equal amount of oil to us in 1902 obviously have far more oil than us now think about that. >> they have far more oil. >> than we have. >> but there can't -- but they can't get out a lot of it. >> no, because they need s.o.b. to come in there at a certain point, s.o.b. and the others that have great technology need to call. they are flooding the world. we don't talk about russia nearly enough in terms of what's going on. >> we haven't talked about the war in quite some time, which is obviously still a concern, escalation is still a concern. >> the reason why food is still up, frankly, when you talk to these companies and you're furious at them for raising food prices, ukraine. bread basket ukraine is why powell is

fighting low interest mortgages, so many things, and he's trying so saturday. david, can't we just all say something good about him >> about who >> powell. every billionaire comes on this network and acts as if that guy is just some sort of hack. billionaires -- you know, billionaires are people too. >> he has a very soothing voice, always like listening to him. >> i think he's doing a great job. all right? >> we didn't really mention regionals in this entire show. >> thank, heavens. >> the kre up half a percent. >> i tried to get jason robins on draft kings, can't make a line on pac west, what can they make a line on, the sixers time to make lines on pac west a jump you can make lines on it's private you have to do it, you know, it's not -- >> i see it's private. >> it's called the derivatives market. >> fairly stable open here, dow's at 37 #, s&p is up about 8 #. quick reminder, you can always

get in on the cnbc investing club with jim, sign up and find out more at cnbc.com/join the club,or use the qr code on your screen as for bonds, we'll get to the front end getting love, the 10-year back to 3.38 don't go anywhere. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪

dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of

people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of nd coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

. walmart earnings next week, awfully close to the highs of the year deutsch names it a top pick going into earnings. pretty much keeping pace with the s&p. >> walmart plus, 20 million people. >> yep. >> 700,000 since the last quarter. >> very close attention to the e-commerce element when we get nuerne wk. stop trading with jim is next.

>> . ♪ it's time for jim and stop trading. >> the pull out of the bed, bath

& beyond collapse really inflect for any company but there's a piece by td cowen, look out, tjx next week is going to benefit and they do believe reports 5-17, this is the one you want to buy the stock has been traegds water. i've been waiting for this call. $5 billion of revenue up for grabs from bed, bath, and i thought it was going to be target this piece says it's tjx that has the most to gain let's watch that because we forget, when a big retailer like that goes under there's a lot of merchandise. >> shared donation is what it's about. >> watch this company. it is the best in the industry all retail has been challenged. >> we'll talk about it next week how about tonight in addition to lift >> you know, that's my major focus. i feel, by the way, that this man who is a great humanitarian, talk about people like that in the business, but he was, he

left business to go teach people how to read in africa and he's come back because this is a challenge that he really wants to win and that's why i say, if i were dara i would say, i feel a little - >> are you saying this guy is ali? >> my commencement speech. my commencement speaker. one of the greatest days of my life he was amazing. >> i remember that story. >> one of the most amazing men ever. >> good weekend. we'll see you tonight. "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern with steady open here. s&p up about 9 don't go anywhere.

good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

good morning happy friday welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange take a look at stocks in the early action we're higher today more than a tenth of a percent it's been a negative week for stocks overall defensive week the dollar stronger. best week since february dow up 45 points 30 minutes into the trading session.

three movers we're watching. first solar shares surging after news the company plans to acquire the european solar company everlar. shares up more than 250% over the last year. news corps saying while certain geographies had insipid advertising demand the backdrop is more positive in the u.s. finally watching tesla shares higher on news that nbc universal ad chief linda yaccarino is leaving this company and expected to become twitter's new ceo. we're going to break down the news with a tesla shareholder in just a moment. stocks up almost 2%. got the big recall out of china. >> that's right. getting consumer sentiment let's get to rick santelli hey, rick. >> hello, carl this is important data and you'll see why in a moment these are our may preliminary read on university of michigan sentiment. headline expected at 63. big miss, 57.7, the weakest since november of last year. current conditions, expecting 67

and change, 64.5 weakest since december of last year expectations, expecting almost 61 53.4 weakest since july all right. now here's a bit of good news, but not much we're expecting 4.4 on one-year inflation, last look 4.6 came in 4.5. split decision, less than the last look but higher than expectations and here's the one that's the fly in the ointment for rates to potentially get pushed up just a bit 5 to 10-year inflation, moved up to 3.2 that is the highest level since 2008 should the final read be there, and, of course, we know in the last couple weeks of any given month things can change, but it is a bit stickier and hotter on that 5 to 10-year inflation. back to "squawk on the street. >> rick, thank you very much

fed is not going to like that. never want to see inflation expectations rise in these surveys. the higher consumer sentiment adds to the confusing pile of data lately with disinflation really the theme of the week between the cpi and ppi. investors decided to focus on the bearish developments what that would mean for economic growth, pacwest deposit outflows, rising initial jobless claims, the story of the week, and it's -- don't know what to make of this number. if you look beneath the surface, guys, some people say, and david rosenberg wrote a note about this this morning, the market not factoring a recession. if you look beneath at the groups that are cycles 45% off their peak, media stocks, 45% off their peak levels. a lot of these banks, these

groups tied to the economy have suffered and are pricing in a more dire economic outlook than the buffeted by a.i. the market would be down if not for a.i. stocks to 38 had 00 on the s&p 500. >> depends on how you define a.i. stocks but includes the likes of microsoft, alphabet, and nvidia, amd, but not insignificant. i don't know meta i'm not sure what an a.i. stock is but i'm dealing with that report that says we only have a few more years, maybe -- >> middle of the century. >> 25 more. >> until we all die. >> are wiped out. >> that's great. at the same time we're digesting fed speak today which is notable because it's a little different than the fed speak we've heard before michelle bowman, a governor, votes every time and doesn't speak that much, but i pay attention to her because she was one of the earliest to say inflation is not transitory and she was worried about it

overnight, should inflation remain high and the labor market remain tight, additional monetary policy tightening will likely be appropriate to attain sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy to lower inflation over time. translation, she's not sounding very pausy as some of the others. >> pausy, is that a new word >> pausy. >> pausy. >> okay. not sounding like she's learning as much to a pause as the other members or the market is it's not definitive. perhaps they would be open to it they have to see evidence that inflation is coming down and we're seeing that, but we're still too high and they're all saying that. >> yeah. >> june. >> it's interesting. jpmorgan yesterday wrote about inflation positioning retrenching even more, covering duration shorts. what's happened with commodities and the bond market looking for 200 points of cuts in the next 18 months, the biggest in 40 years. so the market is counting on some deflation, despite what

some of the consumers might think. >> the break evens showing we don't have an inflation problem and they're coming down. the fed members would say we can't take that for granted. we have to keep them anchored. and with can't look like we're giving up fight on inflation. >> but i mean when jan hatzius uses the term ongoing if gradual progress in terms of fighting inflation, is that similar and does that, therefore, mean no pause? >> it means -- >> gradual but , you know - >> we're on the right track, they might need to see more evidence it doesn't mean they can't pause to see the lag impact which is taking place the other thing, we need to see the impact of the bank failures. david, you know i highlight the bank borrowing and emergency lending. new data last night went in the wrong direction. nothing super stressful, but i think we should mention that emergency lending rose last week $992.4 billion in the week,

higher than $81.1 billion the prior week at lot at the bank term funding program, newer program - >> what are we looking at? is that -- >> this is the discount window not the bt -- whatever the discount window borrowed 9.3, higher than the 5.3, but more lending towards the other facility, but shows you still is stress and we know that, right, from pacwest and western alliance it's way off the peak in march at $164 billion. but we're still watching it. >> there are some calls, i've been hearing at least, to change that liquidity facility to allow it to be broader in terms of the collateral it would take give banks more opportunity, perhaps, to use it because we may not be done with the tumult. >> right. >> it's hard to figure out what - >> by the way, these banks just turned around today. started the day i believe higher a pattern. >> and there we are again lower. to what extent, if any, does that impact psychology

we saw pacwest lost deposits but western alliance did not again, to go back to some of the smaller banks we've been watching closely. >> pacwest up a percent after a 20% sell-off yesterday let's bring in mike santoli with his take this morning. can the overall market rally, if regional banks turn over about a half hour into trading every day? >> probably not sustainably. it hasn't always been the on-off switch for the overall market. we're talking about measurement effects. everything you were talking about, the note about a handful of tech stocks accounting for all the gains, we can play this game all day you know, ex-financial -- and we will. >> the s&p is up close to 8% year to date the stock gen saying we would be down a couple percent without the top 20 tech stocks ex-financials would be up 11%. exclude whatever you want, the good or the bad, and tell a different story, but i think the key is, what you mentioned, which is the cyclical parts of

the markets responding to economic signals are doing what they're supposed to do so what are we to make of this idea that the s&p 500 does not reflect the macro move >> it's not true. >> no. >> it means it's a narrow leadership story. >> how the index works is what it means so i would be more concerned if people were feeling and speaking and behaving as if the s&p was compounding at a 25% annual rate, which is what it's doing right now. the people are bummed out. they expect a recession. whether we get one or not and the stats feed us there. it's an uneven market, no doubt about it, broader rallies tend to be better than narrow ones. if you back away and say, you know, at the lows in october of last year, the nasdaq or the f.a.a.n.g. plus index was down 40% year to date the equal weighted s&p was down 20%. were people saying on the bright side, we're not down 40%

they were saying it's doomsday the equal weighted index is basically flat year to date. it's up 13% from the october low. it's still kind of in an uptrend hanging in above the december lows you can massage it any way you like, but my takeaway on it is, that the market is reflecting these opposing currents. if you want to say apple can't do any more help, you can't get much more from the faung f.a.a.n.g. stocks i would agree they're expensive and buying the index itself you should be aware two stocks make up 0.7, which is apple and microsoft. it's sem man ticks and exactly what story you want to tell about this market. on the bright side you can't say that investors have been oblivious to the risk because the risks are in every other part of the market by the way, look at the stocks in the s&p, half are up year to date and half are down as of this morning of the stocks up 20% year to date, you got ge, chipotle,

fedex, dr horton a ton of travel stocks so pie point is, it's a smattering of things beyond the 10 tech stocks we all talk about. >> meantime we look for progress on inflation there's a lot of discussion about claims yesterday. >> yeah. >> today bofa says you want to buy the first negative payroll print because you tend to get -- they point to bear stearns where you get a ten-week rally in the wake of a major event. >> yes. >> everyone is itchy for the evidence of the recession which should restore the forward return math everyone wants people want to buy the low in october. that's why you have a lot of we should see 3500 again and then yes, everyone is anxious about the fact that we're just in this late cycle waiting for the recession type mode, waiting for that period. you have that span of time between when the fed pauses and when you get the first cut and when the first cut you probably got negative payrolls, where the

market does fine typically, historically, if the cycles -- if the cyclical patterns of the past matter. >> i wonder how much they will pay attention to the inflation expectations now highest since 2011. >> if you ask me, that was a data point that powell reached for to justify doing what he knew they had to do anyway now we're in a different mode and we can-point to different data points and say the fed funds rate is above core inflation. we're in a different situation right now. >> i think they look at the expectation data though. >> it's like 200 people. >> also, by political affiliation, i mean, it's completely crossed a lot of these sentiment surveys are broken into yeah. >> they are political, small businesses too optimism, which is now pessimism, is tied to the democratic environment here. >> thanks, mike. >> yep. >> mike santoli. nbc universal ad chief linda yaccarino is leaving the company and is expected to become twitter's new ceo. tesla shares moving higher on some of this news. will this put musk's focus back

on the ev maker. our next guest is a tesla share holder and among the first to voice concerns joining us today gary black. good to have you back. >> good morning. >> is this really material do we believe least got an amount of time spent on twitter that can now go back to cars >> there are a few things that -- this is a great fit and i know linda yaccarino well. i've spent a lot of time with her. she's the perfect candidate for the job because she's an ad exec and can talk the language of roi and brand safety with other advertisers and stops all the silly talk about elon will bring a technician in to run twitter you need an ad exec to bring advertisers back that's good for tesla. people worry elon will have to put more money into twitter. so i like it for a few reasons there are a lot of institutional pms who won't invest where the ceo is split between one or more companies and you can't look at

spacex as, you know, other interests because he built those from scratch and put the management team in twitter is a total redo. it's a total reinvention it's a lot of work the fact that you have somebody else who does the work, that's really important the second thing is, a lot of people, including myself, look at this it signals that twitter must be doing pretty well for elon to step away. because, you know, he would be more focused on -- he's very focused on it, but the fact that he's willing to let it be and let someone else drive it is an important signal the third thing is, elon has talked about making tesla as big as apple $2.5 trillion to do that it can't rely on a product alone. i think linda, given her -- she's outspoken but deferential, she will be alone among the elon lieutenants to talk about the biftsz of advertising and i view advertising as the next leg for tesla.

tesla has to convince people that ev adoption, you know, should accelerate, they have to convince the non-ev users to go with evs and when you're talking about operating costs lower and how easy it is to charge instead of going to a gas station, and that it's good for the planet, she's the perfect person to help elon understand how advertising could be useful to tesla. >> you know, gary, elon has said, of course, it was in the danger zone when he acquired twitter, given the interest costs that he has, and it's out of that now, may be profitable or certainly back to break even to your point. but he also has indicated via a tweet that's all we have, that he's going to maintain a number of different roles at the company. i'm curious whether you really think he's going to pull back in a significant way, given he's still cto, oversee product software, and, you know, system operations >> they're a perfect match knowing linda very well, she

will bring the advertising marketing expertise that, quite frankly, elon, he's a great marketer but doesn't have that ad experience. she can bring that to the table and you're right, elon is never going to just walk away from twitter. it's his baby, his love, but i think the two of them will complement each other very well. it's really important as you think about 2024, you have the olympics and the election. those are huge events for advertisers and this is a perfect time to be bringing somebody in to get the advertisers back on board twitter and she knows them she knows the language she understand roi she understand the concept of brand safety and they will listen to her because she's respected in the industry. >> but so you're a tesla shareholder, though, right how much is this worth for tesla shareholders >> so two things going on with tesla. one is that elon will focus more of his time on tesla and it's not that he doesn't know cuss on it, but institutional pms like myself like that a ceo spend

24/7, 100% of their time focused on the investment that they're putting their money in and this brings us back closer to that. i think that's huge positive second as i mentioned, i do think it helps think about how does tesla grow from here? model y is going to be the best selling car in the world this year not ev it's the best selling car in the world. how do you continue to get ev adoption last year ev adoption was 10%, which means 90% were not buying evs. and so for tesla to grow as it launches the cyber truck into the pick-up segment which is going to grow its tam, as it brings out a mass market car $25,000 exact car how do you get people to try that evs there's so many that can afford evs but they're afraid they're going to run out battery power you need some sort of education campaign for the nonev users so they're willing to buy an ev for the first time

i think somebody like linda yaccarino, who again, she's outspoken but very deferential, she can teacm at tesla about advertising and the benefits of tesla. she's running twitter but let's face it, elon's companies work with each other and she's going to be a great value add to the executive team. >> finally, while we got you, there was this week what we call 1.1 million cars in china, concern for you snat all >> no. when you have recalls, i'm not sure how china works, but in the u.s. they're over the air updates, download technology, and it fixes the problem let's see before we start getting worried about it it's not something in the past that these recalls have ever had any kind of material impact on tesla. in the meantime you have the pricing, which was the big overhang on tesla stock, was remember, they took prices down, today they took prices back up

on model y this is the second time, best selling car in the world that prices are going up, model s and x prices going up. i believe a lot of investors will look and say the gross margin worry, which we were worried about as well, the gross margins will bottom in the second quarter and should be going up i'm not worried about that i'm focused on the pricing margin issue which today's price increase should put that to rest, that now, you know, consumers shouldn't be waiting for further price declines that's the message tesla is trying to signal to both consumers and to competitors. >> i'm glad you brought that up. people were looking at kelly blue book transaction prices for april tesla down 13 year on year, industry up 4. daimler up 20. ford up 10 critics it's basically a one-man price war, cell phone. >> i agree i was in favor bringing prices down in january, but to have

this constant three or four price declines, there's so many reasons as a marketer you don't want to do that. placing is a very blunt instrument every $1,000 reduction in model y cost the company about $500 million. i think what you're seeing is, the executive team realizing that price declines, you get immediate gratification, people buy a tesla go into the store, or go online and buy it, but price declines continue twus cause people to wait for further price declines i think the last couple weeks you've seen tesla reverse course, sent signals out, raised prices on model x and s, their two high-end premium lines, and most importantly, they've been sending this message out where they've had modest price increases on model y, small, $250 each is not a big number, but at least it sends a signal to consumers, hey, if you're waiting for further price

declines, forget it. prices are going higher. i think that's the message i'm taking away from it and as it relates tos as you know earnings estimates have come straight down this year for tesla and now i think as people start thinking second quarter should be the bottom of gross margins you can see estimates going up as we get closer to 2024, when you have cyber truck coming, you have a revamped model 3 coming and the $25,000 ev coming in late 2024 so that's all good as estimates start going back you >> right. >> gary, interesting take on the pricing and on the advertising angle. we'll see if linda brings ads to tesla. have a good weekend. thanks. >> thanks, guys. as we head to break our road map for the rest of the hour continued headwinds facing regional banks the read through from the ground with one such regional name. the chairman and ceo of prosperity bank shares coming. oil trying to avoid a fourth week of losses we'll drill down on the energy names. and mega cap tech carving up

gains in the last few weeks. tech also seeing the largest inflows in over two years. how to plath stoashiy atecr ts big show continues ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools

your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

give your small business one tech solution constant contact. that checks all the boxes. it's all here with the comcast business complete connectivity solution. peace of mind with cyberthreat security. the power of the largest, fastest reliable network. plus, save up to 75% a year with comcast business mobile. the complete connectivity solution. from the company powered by the next generation 10g network. get started for just $49 a month. and ask about an $800 prepaid card. comcast business. powering possibilities™. oil prices up today trying to avoid the longest weekly losing streak since november 21. pippa stevens has been tracking the action and some of the names. good morning. >> good morning. oil prices are higher today, pushing crude into slightly positive territory for the week.

prices are still down sharply over the last month while equities have rallied, the oil market right now is laser focused on demand. china is the world's largest crude importer and the narrative around the demand recovery there has failed to materialize. add in the possibility of a u.s. slowdown and there isn't much optimism in the market energy stocks have now entered a death cross or when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200 day signaling bearish sentiment. players with exposure have been hit hard in the last month, oxy, diamondback and devon, despite what morgan stanley called another round of strong earnings results, noting signs of easing costs pressures as well as shareholder return programs remaining on track now one area to watch is gas focused emps which held up better than the commodity itself with nat gas down more than 50% this year. now unlike the oil curve, nat

gas is in pointing to higher prices at the end of the year. >> thank you very much watching the energy complex. coming up this morning, the stock winners and losers this morning with the dow in the irons up 26 with the s&p down a point. n'goway.

new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪ whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. ready for the big show? buckle up. ♪ ♪ i'm not gonna lie to you...

that was awesome! some flatish action here about an hour into trading to dominic chu with more on what's moving. >> carl, stocks holding steady to close out the trading week. we've been wavering between gains and losses for the broader s&p 500 today. just fractional gains to fractional losses. nothing major. the s&p holding above that 4100 level and decently above its 50-day average price on a rolling basis which currently stands at just around 4,057. as you can see behind me it's a mix of leaders and laggards tied to the so-called economically sensitive or defensive narratives you have utilities, energy, materials among some of the bigger gainers today while tech, consumer discretionary and financials are among the biggest laggards so far. a few of the stocks and etfs to keep a close eye on today, news corps, those shares

outperforming the s&p, parent company of the "wall street journal," barron's, dow jones and other media properties reporting better than expected profits and revenues, leading to 7% gains there the solar stocks among the biggest gainers in the market, first solar on the heels of news it's buying smaller european solar maker evalar, helping stocks focus as well tan up about 4%. we'll cap things off with a check on the regional banks. they started the day premarket and everything else with what seemed like gains following the steep losses yesterday some of the hardest hit names especially in western u.s. regional lenders like pacwest, zion's first hawaiian have slowed momentum and turned negative keep an eye on the regionals and the spied are ticker kre is down about 0.3% the negativity still there back over to you. >> we are watching that closely. as you say thank you. still ahead right here, jeffery's market strategist says it's time to pick bonds over

equities that will be next. first as we take you to a break, throughout the month of may, cnbc is celebrating asian american and pacific islander heritage through the stories of influential aapi business leaders. here's the head of city's private bank. >> it's really important for allies and those not in the asian community to understand some of the values and cultural nuances and beliefs of asians, right. for an example, we're brought up to be super humble, modest, not tout our accomplishments, work hard, keep our heads down, to be quiet and not boast, to not brag those are sort of the opposite things you need to have to be successful in corporate america. but just knowing that and knowing that there's differences culturally is half the battle to understanding more about the asian heritage and culture

i think i'm ready for this. heck ya! with e*trade you're ready for anything. marriage. kids. college. kids moving back in after college. ♪ finally we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna...♪ and then we looked around and said, wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller! (laughing) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mhm. cool...i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?! ♪ yeah, yeah ♪ dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm courtney regan your cnbc news update at this hour a florida judge temporarily blocking the biden administration from releasing migrants into the u.s. without notices to appear in court the order took effect at 11:59 p.m. eastern on thursday, corresponding with the expiration of title 42 it will expire in 14 days as the judge notes the government has, quote, an opportunity to seek an emergency stay from a higher court. meanwhile, former president donald trump's legal team is moving to file an appeal after a jury found him libel in a civil case against e. jean carroll the jury found trump liable for sexually abusing and defaming carroll and awarding her damages $56 million. the new york city subway rider who put jordan kneery in a choke hold surrendered to police

and will be soon arraigned in a manhattan court. daniel penny is expected to be charged with second-degree manslaughter back over to you. >> i will take it, thank you our next guest thinks the fed is likely on a longer term pause during the summer and favors high yield bonds over equities joining us chief market strategist david zurvos. hawkish commentary fri bowman overnight saw consumer inflation expectations rise in the university of michigan numbers this morning you sure they're going to pause in june? >> innings, sara they've done a lot but that five-year ahead inflation expectation in the university of michigan at 3.2 is going to raise eyebrows last time it got to 3.3, they got -- that's when they moved us from 50 to 75 at the june meeting over the weekend before the fed meeting. but we're still within the range. i think a lot of things are going their way. short-term inflation

expectations through break evens down to 2, the long end very steady, the dollar reasonably strong and strengthening it's interesting to seat dollar back below 109 against the euro when everybody is super bearish the dollar, so i think the fed is in a comfortable place and a lot of people have been lagts on the fed and bashing jay for the last year and a half are looking like they split to swallow some humble pie we have a 3.4% unemployment rate and inflation back below 5%. >> soft landingish if that's factored in, now at what point does equity market have to worry about recession if we see worse data and more credit tightening, which is expected >> exactly that's what the fed is trying to do, slow things down and bring aggregate demand down, keep expectations anchored. all that is part of the process and the tough love that we've been administered and we have to

accept it and there's going to be folks that get hurt along the way, good businesses with bad capital structures are going to go away and bad businesses with bad capital structures goil away it's about capital structure now and we've focused at jefferies all year on really thinking about that part of the capital structure that we want to be in. we think the equity part is the most risky part. that's the part most vulnerable as the fed is tightening and fighting inflation we're in the less risky part of the capital structure for the u.s. economy which is high yield bonds and loans. >> david, did claims this week suggest the labor market is really beginning to crack? is ubs right we get a negative print floebl -- probably in q3 >> it's possible i don't think we should rule out a couple quarters of negative growth we had that in the first two quarters of last year and didn't feel all that bad. i think you've got to expect that growth is going to slow,

some companies are going to get hurt, people will downsize, some folks are going to get fired, the unemployment rate should rise, it hasn't but should, and we have other dynamics in there that are making it pretty sticky to the downside. but i just don't see the cataclysmic story that a lot of other folks are spinning or, carl, the other story that really was, you know, very and inflation is rampant, we've got -- jay powell is the reincarnation of arthur burns. if anything, jay powell is the reincarnation of paul volker and hope he doesn't have to hit us as hard as paul volker did i don't think he will. if he has to he's going to hit us hard. i leave open the option that there may be a little bit more toward the end of the year they have to do but i think they really want to pause for a few meetings and watch how things pan out they've done a lot of heavy lifting already and they've got inflation and unemployment on

trajectories that i think are quite comfortable. >> david, high yield bonds don't always do particularly well in a recession f there's a deep one, which you don't expect. >> that's true, david. i mean, you have to worry a little bit about it, but again, equities would be worse, right if you're in the senior secured part of the capital structure the equity has to get wiped out before you get touched, so you would much rather be there than in the equity market i think for us it's a way to tip toe back into the risk trade after last year being out of the risk trade and really kind of being unhappy with the idea that you want to sort of jump in to a fed that's going to jump into a market where the fed has to be aggressive on you and stand back a little bit that was our theme last year fed puts gone, stay away this year you can tip toe back in and our way is really to look at either, you know, either the high yield bonds, loan, or the

structured credit markets all which offer you a lot of protection we're looking at yields 9, 10, 11%. these are yields yields you've only been able to get in times of serious dislocation and crisis you have an enormous amount of protection in the bonds. >> david, i think chair powell will be happy with those compliments from you, especially the volcker. >> i'm proud of what he's accomplished and i think he's done a great job. >> david, thank you. david zervos from jefferies. it is mother's day this weekend and ahead of the holiday julia boorstin has a look at the companies supporting moms the most hi, julia. >> hi, carl. well, happy mother's day not so much for working moms. silicon valley tech giants like to tout their generous benefit programs but knew analysis from just capital reveals just three companies in the russell 1,000 offer a comprehensive set of policies aimed at really supporting working mothers and

families intuit, u.s. bank corp and lily offer 16 weeks of paid parental leave for primary caregivers and ten weeks for secondary. backup dependent care, subsidized child care and flexible scheduling. access to child care and paid leave are among the top obstacles working women face according to just capital polling and service key tools for retaining talent as well as for boosting performance say various experts. the labor force participation rates for mothers with children under 18 is about 73% in 2022. that's 20 percentage points behind the labor force participation rate for fathers with children under 18 the economic impact of this goes far beyond working women and their families the annual cost of the infant toddler child care crisis adds up to $122 billion in lost

earnings, productivity and revenue. and that gap is growing. up 50% since 2018 according to the bipartisan council for a strong america so, improving those benefits programs could end up boosting retention and also corporate results. back over to you. >> julia, i feel like one of the best things that companies can do is offer equal father paternity leave or nonbirth parent leave to try to balance the gender equity problem and also the stigma around men leaving for paternity instead of women leaving for maternity leave. are companies doing this >> yeah. you're absolutely right, sara. there's a lot of research showing it's important not just to have good maternity leave policies but make them parental leave policies it sets up from the very beginning that fathers are going to be involved in child care, and it also indicates that you're not going to have -- sort

of be held back if you're a woman who decides to take your full parental or maternity leave. studies showing having generous maternity leave policies, could grow the gap between men and women. if women are off for six months they may feel behind than their malmale counterpart was don't take off time when they're born. it's thoughtful to have parental leave policies to even things out for men and women at home and in the workforce. >> and management needs to follow these guidelines too and set an example for the whole stigma thing it becomes part of the culture. >> absolutely. >> julia, thanks as we go to break the kre is down 15% in two weeks. and names like pacwest have been cut in half while banks and regulators alike say the sector is sound we'll get a firsthand account with the ceo of another regional prosperity bk ar ia mentanshesn getting on dexcom is the singe

most important thing you can do. it eliminates painful finger sticks, helps lower a1c, and it's covered by medicare. before using the dexcom g7, i was really frustrated. all of that finger pricking and my a1c was still stuck. my diabetes was out of control. (female announcer) dexcom g7 sends your glucose numbers to your phone or dexcom receiver without painful finger sticks. the arrow shows the direction your glucose is heading-- up, down, or steady-- and because dexcom g7 is the most accurate cgm, you can make better decisions about food, medication, and activity in the moment. after using the dexcom g7, my a1c has never been lower. i lead line dancing three times a week, and i'm just living a great life now. (donna) it's so easy to use. dexcom g7 has given me confidence and control, everything i need is right there on my phone. (female announcer) dexcom is the number one recommended cgm brand. call now to get started on dexcom g7.

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything

anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

volatility in regional bank stocks continues our next guest the ceo of one such regional bank with 288 branches primarily services texas and oklahoma joining us now here at post nine, prosperity senior chairman and ceo david sqzalman silicon valley bank lost $42 billion in four hours and some would say things will never be the same how have you navigated this turmoil since that occurred? >> well, the -- you're right first let me say i think banks are strong overall there's no question. in the past when you had a bank stress it was primarily because of a credit issue. this is not really a credit issue. it's a confidence issue. i mean as you mentioned, you had svb go under you had signature bank go under. republic and you know, now you -- you

know, let me go back further for 100 years, banks have really taken in deposits and with those deposits, they made loans and the money they didn't have in loans, they would put into securities u.s. treasuries or agencies and that would usually do it around a duration of three years. the reason i say duration, some people would say this is the reprising of them. as interest rates go up 300 basis points or so, that extends to four years. there's times in the market that you'll have where interest rates are zero, a lot of same banks had big gains in the portfolio interest rates went up 500 basis points which i don't think was in anybody's model you have losses in these over time those one year make more money, two years, three years make more money. it's a timing issue and

something that all banks have to work through. >> but it's also, as you say, a confidence issue and to the extent people are looking at balance sheets and unrealized losses that may never be realized may not matter if you lose confidence, what needs to be done further to instill that confidence at this point or do you feel as though things are okay >> i don't i think that it truly is a confidence issue and let me point out that when interest rates were zero we had over a billion dollar gain in our portfolio. nobody brought that up as you come down, as interest rates go up, you might have that much of a loss in our case it's okay because if you took our whole loss off, we still have about 7% capital which is about 5% as well capitalized under the fdic we're in good shape, but i do think there has to be a change if you remember last time we had the bank stress and we -- the fdic director had the ability at that time which he doesn't have the ability this time, they

passed a program called the program which is a transactional guarantee and when they did that, probably within one day, within one day, things called down because people didn't to worry about the deposits in their bank and you didn't have the shorting today you have these people shorting the bank and even if they make 20%, it goes down, they make a whole lot of money if it goes down completely, they make a whole lot of money. so, they scare the depositors. they see the bank stock going down, they take deposits out and it really becomes a liquidity issue. i do think -- i'm trying to talk with the fed and the fdic, and whether they listen or not, i don't know, i think there should be some kind of temporary deal having this go on at the same time you have a budget issue or a debt ceiling issue, it's not good to have both of these going on at the same time, i can assure you. >> how early on would you say duration mismatch was part of a

conversation was it last year i mean, how early were people saying, you know what, someone's going to crack under this? >> well, i don't know that anybody said they would crack. i mentioned it a year or two years ago on a couple of committees i'm on. you can either put your securities in what's available for sale or code of mature if you're available for sale, the loss or gain goes through your capital account, not necessarily your earnings. at htm, we don't see it as much. we all knew it was going to be an issue there's no question -- >> well before svb >> absolutely. when interest rates are zero, you would have to be crazy not to think, you're going to have a loss i was telling our directors years ago, i said, you guys are really enjoying a real gain right now, but be prepared for this period of time. >> real quickly, i'm sorry to jump in, but are you lending at the previous rate as previous? have you tightened lending standards? >> i think lending will tighten

in all midsize banks simply because deposits have flowed out of the bank so we don't have as much deposits to lend the monies you'll keep that for your good customers, customers that have been with you. for example, we might have $100 million family come across the loan committee they're willing to put 50% down right now. >> wow. >> and we still don't -- we'll do some but we primarily do it with the customers we have that's going to really keep inflation down i think we're going to do the job for the fed right now. the banks, the deposits that are less it's not because they just went somewhere else for safety. they're going to money market, mutual funds, they can get -- they're getting higher it's a two-sided deal. the fed put a ton of money in and now they're taking a lot of money out. this is just a contraction and we have to see where it ends up. >> david, we're short on time. certainly appreciate you joining us. wreacafr g . or invitinme >>e' bk tethis

go spotlights. go stadium lights. emerson software helps clean energy become reliable electricity. go “good night." go boldly. emerson. (cecily) you're looking pleased with yourself. (seth) not to brag, become reliable electricity. but i just switched to verizon. (cecily) so you got an awesome network... (seth) and when i switched, i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. not bragging. (cecily) you're bragging. (neighbor) oh, he's bragging. (seth) who, me? never. oh, excuse me. hello, your royal highness, sir... (cecily) okay, that's a brag. (seth) hey, mom. i gotta call you back. (vo) visit your verizon store during our spring savings event and choose the phone you want, like the incredible iphone 14, on us. verizon you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean-

not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back have you ever wanted to represent a house in the hamptons over the summer now may be your best chance. robert frank joins us and tells

us what that's all about robert robert, it's a beautiful spot. >> reporter: there's a vast oversupply of homes here in the hamptons prices are coming down there are 5,700 homes on the market prices are down 10% to 20% they're going to have to come down a lot more. the problem is, all the people that bought homes here in the hamptons during the pandemic now want to rent them and there's not enough renters ball of all the issues on wall street and the falling stock market. >> feel good about life and your situation and the things around you, you go out and you make the expenditure on a rental. this year people may not be feeling quite as good. >> reporter: now, the one bright spot is ocean-front properties like these, there just aren't enough to meet demand. this house is in bridgehampton,

12,000 square feet, ten bedrooms, right on the water, 50-foot pool the rental price for this is $600,000 just for two weeks. that may sound like a lot, but a house recently rented on the water for $2 million for just one month. so, at the very high end, on the water, there's still more demand than supply. but the rest of the hamptons still scrambling to find renters, david >> well, we'll see how it develops we know you'll help us do that robert, thank you. beautiful spot enjoy the beach. robert frank in the hamptons that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. have a great weekend more aft ts.erhi

- psst! susan! with paycom, employees do their own payroll. - what's paycom? a magic payroll genie? - it's a payroll app. - payroll is way too complicated for the average person. - paycom guides them through it. missing or duplicate punches, pending expenses, unapproved pto, on and on.

- why would employees wanna do all that? - this could be a stretch, but i think it's 'cause they wanna get paid correctly. i like getting paid correctly. good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. some of the surprise winners through april and the lack of participation from the small caps. jim fetterling with us on new nuclear capabilities in texas and the state of the economy. a debt ceiling debate between the presen