"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's check things out there are red arrows the dow futures off 105 points nasdaq futures down 50 s&p off 14.5 this comes after a relatively flat day for the markets yesterday. s&p and nasdaq up barely dow down barely. we are watching the treasury market closely as we await the meeting in washington to see what happens with the debt default. the 2-year treasury is below 4%.

probably worth looking at weak treasuries much higher than this. >> debt default talks later today. the debt default later today talks. these clowns kick the can we're can kickers. >> that is ridiculous. the idea we are still talking around and putting the faith of the government in question whether or not they will pay bills. united states always pays its bills. a four-week t-bill at this is insane get this resolved. >> or at least kick the can. we're can kickers extraordinary. if we know one thing, we can kick cans. the federal reserve warning this could fuel a credit crunch to slowdown economic activity.

the report stating that despite decisive action by regulators and worries the banking sector could lead to a contraction of credit and drive up costs for houses and businesses. that is common sense paypal shares are down earnings and revenue did beat estimates. the quarter guidance earnings below estimates. they raised the estimate by 8 cents after it beat expectations by 7 cents a penny increase conservative oil jogiant saudiaramco with the first quarter profit with higher income from other sources. joe said at the top of the show, shares of palantir soaring. stock up 18% earnings of 5 cents per share

beat estimates here is what happened. the company said its customer account increased 50% year over year the company ceo saying the company expects to remain profitable until the end of the year that is relative good day for them. we are also watching shares of western digital adjusted loss of 1.27 a share. revenue declines $2.8 billion from $4.8 billion a quartering ago. the dguidance below estimate. shares of lucid motors which are lower this morning 43 cent per share loss was worse than the street expected the company has enough cash to operate into next year lucid plansto produce more tha 10,000 vehicles in 2023.

in the previous report, lucid planned to produce 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles. >> striking looking vehicle. have you seen one? >> yeah. >> the front end is narrow i saw one use a turn signal. weird. vertical everything is different. >> the stock is down 64% over the last two years we have enough cash to get through the end of the year. >> how muany vehicles >> we had cameras in the car >> that was a while ago. >> two or three years ago. >> how many models do they have? >> two models. >> that sedan. >> the sedan was beautiful

>> yeah. let's talk about ftx a lot going on ftx founder asking the judges have the charges dismissed al arguing the illegal activity took place outside of the united states and political donations were entirely legal. that's one argument being made also other arguments by others made around this >> shaq. i see all the time now not in person. on tv. shaquille o'neal looking to have his lawsuit over the dealings with ftx dismissed he said the lawyer whos who attempted to serve him missed key deadlines. they tossed the legal papers at his car and windows were up. that did not meet the legal requirement for serving someone

papers they could have been throwing -- >> he is right you can't throw something. >> i have seen tv shows where people don't want to be served they see someone coming or open the door and see the person. i've never been served not to this point with anything. >> i know someone who dressed as a nun as a year to not get served >> what happened >> i don't know the end of the story. i'll tell you later who it was >> a lady? okay that would be weirder. >> probably better costume. >> tnot now. for a year nun's things have changed. >> a habit >> when i grew up, penguins. huge and uncomfortable they got kind of modern. little more chic >> i agree with shaq

i don't think throwing letters at a moving vehicle with windows up counts as being served sdpserved >> you can go to his house. >> you have to physically hand it >> i'm sure they did not do it right. eventually he will get served sdplchserved >> he is right that does not count as being served. >> chase you down to serve you with anything is scary goldman sachs agreed to pay $215 million over a lawsuit of employees. it alleges the bank discriminated against women and how it promotes staffers the settlement covers 2,800 women who held associate or vp positions from early 2000 to this year.

a third of the money is set aside for legal fees that's $76,000 they each get $50,000 on average. after the close in tokyo nintendo with a 5.5% decline for the fiscal year driven by a drop of sales of switch console profit was down 9% year over year that was better than the forecast the company expecting sales of the switch to continue to fall it has been on the market for six years. investors fear sales may have peaked i got one a while ago. i don't think we use it. >> is it used? >> not as much as it used to be. coming up, we will tell you what to expect with the president biden white house meeting with the big four lawmakers. that is next. it is disrupter day. the fast start ups is back for 2023 the disruptor 50 list will be

revealed stay tuned this is "squawk box" on cnbc you hungry? i know a place. it's the city that never sleeps... but hey, if you need a last minute spot... i've got you covered. let's link up at hotels.com you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. janet yellen speaking to cnbc yesterday about the debt ceiling standoff in washington here what is she said on "closing bell. >> the only option that leaves our country in good shape and financial system is raising the

debt ceiling and making clear congress stands behind the basic principle that america pays its bills. we're not a dead beat country. >> president biden hosting a high stakes meeting today at the white house. top leaders in congress expected to be there. kevin mccarthy and ken jeffries and mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer. aides to the big four met to discuss protocol joining us now is jake sherman he is an nbc news contributor. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. >> what will you think will happen >> to set expectations, the best thing we could hope for and best thing toward a deal is some road map to get there i think this is really important in the sense that this is an unusually small amount of time between the first meeting

between principals and the deadline on april 1st. we have an inn itterview with je dimon this morning we shouldn't under rate that because default hasn't happened before, andrew,doesn't mean it is not a real option mccarthy has been banging on president biden to meet for 97 days this is a high stakes situation for the white house and capitol hill >> who do you think -- given you talk to folks on both sides and often times off the record, who has the upper hand is the problem that both >> mccarthy passed the debt limit bill and it is up to everybody else to figure out what they will pass. i think chuck schumer and the white house bet that mccarthy would not be able to do anything and they can jam him with mitch

mcconnell. we are seeing an unusual amount of unity between senate and house republicans which is very unusual in these things. usually mitch mcconnell swoops in and does a deal with the president. he did that 12 years ago i have to imagine that democrats are looking and i know they are beginning to soften on the prospects of a deal according to people we spoke to last night. this is very difficult given the time period they have and the next couple weeks to get a deal together >> jake, a lot of things swirling around. depending on which channel you watch. title 42 that is happening. i'm talking about the president's recent approval numbers which are shocking from the "the washington post" and others unusual after announcing a re-election for numbers to do down so much does that lessen the political

capital he can spend right now if he is at the low point of his presidency i don't know if it is a good point to stick tod your guns and say it is my way or the highway sdplchlt johighway. >> joe, his prapproval rating of 34% is a small outlier number two, chuck schumer has a lot of lawmakers who would benefit from a deal. i heard you talk about this before, joe. the bill that mccarthy passed is an opening offer it is nothing more than that it will not pass the senate. opening offers are never intended to pass the other chamber. they are almost never intended to be signed into law by the president. you think given approval ratings

and map in 2024 for democrats, there is incentive to cut spending not as much as mccarthy wants, and lift the defendant ceiling with permitting reform yeah, the basic answer is incentive for democrats to get a deal. >> what about kicking the can and six months and talk later? throw some ice cream in for the president. >> i the am very bearish on the short-term deal. i don't think it could pass the house without serious policy concessio concessions. >> jake, talk about this would there still be cohesion if the white house would meet them part way or halfway on the deal?

at the time, the reporting was mccarthy told his caucus the offer putting forward was a floor, not a ceiling, in terms of what they are looking for is there room for a deal let's say the white house bends? if they say we'll meet you half way, that is something both sides embrace? >> mccarthy never said this was a floor. he never said it was a final offer. he would be crazy to offer that. mccarthy has a treacherous path here he has a right-leaning conference they have to settle for a compromise i do think there is room for a compromise broadly speaking. i can tell you right now, mccarthy's speakership would be over if he passed a clean debt ceiling. he has been clear. this is different from other debt ceiling debates i covered

the last 15 or so years. mccarthy hasn't drawn any red lines. he wants a deal. mccarthy wants a "w. he doesn't want to hike a clean debt ceiling there will be a lot of -- >> he wants more than five votes or he'll get enough republicans and democrats to sign up or his speakership is safe? there will be some to say you didn't do what you said. >> it takes one to trigger that vote it doesn't take one to kick him out. whatever deal they come to at the end of the day, if they come to a deal will pass with 100 republicans and about 100 something democrats. it has to be something that pulls from both sides. remember, one week to get a bill through the senate probably around a week to get to the house. we're talking about a really, really condensed time period

>> jake, there was an op-ed two days ago making the argument there shouldn't be a debt ceiling at all this is the section for the 14th amendment. the validity of the public debt shall not be present there is no debt limit there is a ridiculous thing. as the president, i'm just going to continue to pay the bills if we have to, you know, get more money we're going to get more money. is anybody taking that ser seriously? >> no. this is what jamie dimon talked about. he said they should get rid of the debt limit donald trump proposed this i don't see any situation which 60 votes and 218 votes in the house vote to get rid of the debt limit for now, this is limited to

op-ed and arguments. especially with republicans in control of the house. >> jake, how many tvs do you have you watch "squawk box" and msnbc and nbc? you got them all on. >> you have screens within screens? >> i am a company guy, joe i have to stick with the brand >> the "housewife" reruns. >> stick with the brand. >> he has a control room we appreciate it. >> jake, thank you for joining us. >> thanks. coming up, new details on what google the plans to annount the developer conference. and ceo of ev maker fisker will join us live. wow. his name is fisker that's cool. as we head to brk, aea look at the regional bank stocks. more at the bottom of the hour

dad, we got this.

we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones

time now for the executive edge cnbc has learned that a.i. will be a central theme at google's annual developer conference tomorrow according to internal documents reviewed by cnbc, the company will reveal general use a.i. model performing coding and math tests as well as creative writing test as well as analysis spotify removing tens of thousands of a.i. songs by start up boomy ramping up police of artificial

content over fraud and clutter this is, i think, the beginning of the larger problem we will see not just in the music space, but content space. articles and you will see content. lots of content. some of it is counterfeit or pl a.i. content and it will be overwhelming >> what is an a.i. song? >> absolutely. folks are now taking songs and changing them marginally using a.i. >> you know the songs and they are changing them? >> or two versions >> they are taking the voice we talked about this a couple weeks ago. a jay-z song i don't think it is included in this they created a song that sounds like jay-z it is his voice. the truth is, his music and others have been based on s

sampling others. you pay for the sample or it is part of the music. who pays the royalties >> glenn close joined us over what has gone on in hollywood. they said they make her stand there and take a billion different shots to have her image. they have her read things into the microphone and that was her question what happens to that do i not own myself? no, no we wouldn't use it without her permission her point is why not use me to do that later rather than tape all of these things? you know what they do. they create things without your permission or use you beyond your life. you would never have taken it is a big concern. the actors are trying to figure this out >> you can go back in classic

rock and change things and make a.i., right? >> yeah. >> by the way, there will be -- somebody will make, you hope somebody will make the "squawk box" production. three years from now, they will have video of all three of us and your voice and type in whatever words they want and that's how it will be. there will be content all over the place. >> "squawk box" on friday where jobs numbers were better run that one you say the same stuff fed. you could do that. is that good or bad? do we still get paid >> you have to organize it in your contract. your next contract >> your voice. >> a.i >> come on will you help me >> i will w

i charge more for that >> that's okay one time >> for me or you >> you i pay you. no, no no >> just get paid forever >> i want the lawyer type thing. >> we'll talk. >> i want the model. >> have your assistant call my assi assistant. >> her name -- when we come back, we will talk about the markets and if you check out the futures, the dow is off 125 points. the nasdaq down 55 s&p down 16. i don't know if that is a vote in confidence with the markets today or waiting to see. we talk strategy we are minutes away from the 2023 disruptor 50 list. and a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers from yesterday.

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i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures yesterday was mixed. dow was down and nasdaq and s&p were up. today, we have red across the board. our next guest recently added ingersold rand to her portfolio. what's wrong >> nothing go >> stephanie link. chief investment strategy at hightower and a cnbc contributor. is that a deep cyclical stuff? >> it is a deep cyclical you know what is interesting,

joe. industrials have been resilient. 34 in the sector have beaten and some raised guidance that is because you see backlog and orders replenished from fixing the supply chain. these companies, from what i am hearing on conference calls, they want more technology and innovation versus people in the plants and factories this is opposite what you think would be happening with the isms in the mid-40s i think this is certainly an interesting time onshoring is a theme and long-term theme. we just passed $1 trillion of packages trying to fix out country and to build more supply chains here. we are starting to see it. >> nothing wrong with it you can be against corporate-ism. nothing wrong with riding that wave >> i really think this is a ten-year plan.

so, the companies have such visibility you know, why i bigged ingersoll is the backlog it was up 10%. book to bill is north of 1.1 times. they have $4 billion to make acquisitions they are making acquisitions this one happens to be trading at a discount to the group look across the board, joe caterpillar. north america up 34% profits up 42% pac raised guidance. you can pick any of the names, but i am trying to find the better value they are all doing really well it is the renaissance of the industrial sector. >> what about fortinet >> i like fortinet i owned it over the years.

i bought it last week before they reported. i wanted more cybersecurity exposure when you have ct that are looking to consolidate vendors, fortinet is one of the leaders and they will benefit. total adjusted market for cybersecurity is $200 billion spend. i want to ride that wave they had 30% billings growth operating margin and free cash flow it is expenses ive joe,expensive to pay for it. this is also for the long trend. >> we talked macro before. is there a recession in 2023 >> i don't know. i don't think so we have such momentum in the job market, joe.

to me, earnings have held up well, by the way 85% have reported and an 76% were strong. it has been remarkable that is the bright spot. on the flip side, inflation is still high we know what the fed will do we will be from the market point of view, in a trading range. the fed is still front and center from the economy point of view and we will slow. i had think we have enough momentum this year maybe the recession comes next year if the job market stays this strong, that is a nice, soft landing scenario potentially. >> credit contraction. market forced credit contraction. becky has an interview coming up we don't have anyt time left

becky? >> the down side of this, stephanie, there are lots of doomsday scenarios, whether the government or credit crunch is worse than we think. is that priced in? the market is holding up well despite all those things >> i think that's the number one question i think the market is holding up well because companies are figuring out ways to produce earnings that are not horrible they are actually kind of good and guidance is conservative, but constructive next week we will get a slew of retail earnings. i hope we talk next week as well because that will be interesting. the consumer is holding up services is holding upper bette than expected. i want to hear about the consumer real time and if the consumer can hang in there, that is not so bad. >> we do have to run what do you think of the banks regional and big banks

>> i'm not a buyer of regional banks. i think they have a host of problems i think some of the large banks are taking market share and diversified and excess capital they are not going to have to do se secondary to raise more capital. i'm not sure the regionals have to do that i'm avoiding regionals i like selective banks schwab is my recent buy in march. it hasn't worked out yet i still think there is value yet. wells fargo and bank of america. i like for the long term sdpterm >> stephanie, thank you. coming up, disruptor day at cnbc fast growing startups is back. the 2023 disruptor 50 list v revealed after the break and joe has another big interview. i know we will talk to lazard ceo peter

orszag he will talk about the debt ceiling and the fallout from the banking crisis we will talk to him. reminder, you can get the best of squawk pod and listen any time joe has a bunch of fascinating interviews >> stop. >> back after this at t-mobile, your business will save over $1000. what are you going to do with it? i could use a new sign. with t-mobile for business, save more than $1000 versus verizon. and with our price lock guarantee, we'll never raise your rate plan. ever.

today's a big day. we are unveiling the cnbc 11th annual disruptor list. julia boorstin joins us now. good morning >> good morning. this year's disrupt ors face a challenging year as valuations have declined. innovation is transforming more industries than ever as we he are on the cusp of the era age of a.i here are the top five. number five, wiz disrupting cybersecurity, it scans servers for threats faster than palo alto network it scaled quickly with remote work and cyber attacks founded in 2020, wiz surged to $10 billion valuation this year. number four, relativity space.

proving rockets can be built quickly and efficiently with 3d printers in march, it launched a rocket for the first time successfully. >> a mass altitude of 134 kilometers to above the 100 kilometers line. >> up next, reaching orbit on delivering $100 billion of contracts for the defense department and lockheed martin number three, canva. the graphic design company has grown in ten years to more than 100 million monthly users and $1 billion of annual revenue. in december, it introduced genretive a.i. tools to speed up customer work. number two, brex startups of any size to access credit the fintech company gained billions of deposits from thousands of clients with the alternative to silicon valley bank following the collapse.

number one open a.i >> chatgpt >> a.i >> a.i >> artificial intelligence. >> chatgpt. >> every company is an a.i. company. >> two months after chat ggpt, raised $100 million and set to raise $200 million of revenue this year from subscriptions and corporate licensing fees. >> this is the biggest one in a while. >> disruptors and we will have stories and interviews throughout the day and week. next, a deep dive in the ride of a.i. in the 10:00 a.m. hour. at 11:00 a.m., i'm interviewing the ceo of chime which is 15 on the list andrew >> julia, if you go back and did the disruptor index as an

investor, i know most of the things are not open to public investors. many companies you had on the list ended up going public >> we have an index. this this is possible. i don't know if we can pull up the stock chart. >> how are we doing? how have we done in last year? >> the disruptor 50 index out per formed it would be gradeat to compare the nasdaq a lot of ups and downs a roller coaster stock for the tech sector for the year the disruptor 50 out performing the nasdaq those are companies that were at one point on the cnbc disruptor list the list is private companies. once the companies go public, they have he aare added to the index. i guess we picked good ones, andrew. >> hold on the index is tracking them as

public companies not tracking the mark-to-mark on them >> that is right only track once they go public in reporting on and cnbc.com is wheth where you find valuation some companies are valued less than if they raised financing back in 2021 i think for our viewers, it was important to understand the trends the companies are representing currently in the public markets and also what are the companies they should keep an eye on because some of the bigger ones could go public as soon as the ipo window opens up again. >> i'm looking at the list trying to figure out who else we know here. >> there are many returning disruptors, but many new companies. many representing the a.i. trend. >> that is what i would ask.

how much is a.i. and how many on the list what is the turnover >> the turnove reflective of how many companies have been sold some bigger companies and if you are too old and have been around for 20 years, you no longer qualify. we have the criteria and descriptions to qualify up on cnbc.com/disruptors. what is interesting about this year's list is a decline in fintech companies which is no surprise >> desstripe is 28 s that -- >> it was number one a couple years ago. we have stripe and an one that does emerging loans. we are seeing more health tech companies and more importantly, it is interesting to see the number of companies in the green t tech or green energy green tech and green energy.

a lot of these companies, whether in health tech or logistics or green energy, they are deploying a.i. that is fascinating. 21 of the companies told us half of the ref venue is directly related to a.i. >> my favorite company on here aura ring. >> any poor disruptors been totally disrupted? >> yes some ended up imploding. it is funny. you look at the companies. one was a satellite tv company that was the idea of anyone could access tv any point on their computer that business which was backed by barry diller, put out of business by a lawsuit. >> julia, great to see you thank you. we will see more of you throughout the day congratulations on the big disruptor 50 list. >> thank you coming up, an interview you

don't want to miss regional bank stocks under pressure i'll do this becky, you had -- how long >> pac west. down

regional bank stocks rebounding last friday but the rally is losing steam. looking to extend the losses in early trading, and for more let's bring in andrew leash, senior analyst at piper sandler. >> how are you >> good. how are you? >> good, thanks. >> to me it looks like some of the real problems that we have seen already, the banks that are

now gone, they were like one-offs, weren't they they had a huge concentration of really big depositors which is different than most regionals, or commercial real estate. people looked for them and found them are there more are they beating the bushes for underlying problems? >> i think you nailed it, the ones that failed they had higher concentrations in crypto or venture deposits, and a lot of the big issues was the deposits, and the rest of the regional banking didn't have the deposits we have seen a normalization and stabilization of deposits. seems like right now the bigger

issues were the ones that already failed and now you are seeing a stabilization of deposits and the question is becoming one of earnings power, because you are still seeing the deposit costs moving higher, and it's moving to higher cost accounts and it's more of an earning question than a liquidity question >> we could live with that we could live with a little dampening of earnings. let me ask you, so let's say somebody beating the bushes sees the liabilities and everybody is under $250,000 can it sill be something they can hit and people will move their deposits? does anybody under 249,000 move

their deposits >> not from what i am hearing, and not from my experience i have never seen that happen. maybe you do see some -- maybe it raises questions if a depositor at a bank -- >> is the storm passing, would you say? we only have about 30 seconds left is it passing, do you think? you go up three, back two, go up three, back two. are they stabilizing and likely to trend higher from here or is it tough to say? >> it's tough to say, but you are right, the stabilization is -- the reality is not matching the perception and the stock prices, and they are being unfairly punished. >> you must be cleaning up over

there at piper everybody needs a little help cleaning up? >> yeah, they do >> thank you still to come this morning, we are going to talk electric vehicles with henrik fisker. and then peter orszag will join us on the debt ceiling we'll be right back. to help kee connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

u.s. futures in the red so far this morning a new fed survey on lending and a potential credit crunch may mean more economic storm clouds are ahead. and that the white house front and center of the negotiations today, and we will talk to two senators about the prospect on today's big meeting. and then palantir, stronger than expected quarterly results the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are lies at the nasdaq market square i am andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at treasuries right now. we will show you the ten-year and the two-year, and the ten-year there let's show you crypto bitcoin. we think it's a barometer of risks? what are we saying it's a barometer of we are sitting there at $26.

i don't know let's get to dom chu what is going on in the stock market >> joe, let's start with a couple bigger moves in the moves. we got a surge of palantir higher by 19%. better than expected profits and revenues and a better than expect forecast for a year profitability, and so shares up nearly 20% then paypal, it's down about 5.5% right now, just under 2,000

shares of volume and its current quarter guidance was slightly disappointing, and paypal did raise its full yearly guidance we will end with a check on what continues to be a volatile trade in the regional banks specifically like pacwest down, so a little volatility returning. they are still down anywhere from two-thirds to around 80% of the market value over the course of a year. and jordan spieth is trending because he withdrew from the weekend tournament -- >> yeah, it's his left wrist >> pga is next week or coming up

soon, and that's the only major he has not won that's everything you need to know >> all the news. >> we have all been briefed. we have deal news for you this morning temper sealy is buying mattress firm mattress firm was taken private in 2016. you can see temper shares are off by 3% on this news >> mattress companies, it's a crazy thing. do you remember the mattress companies went bankrupt and then got bought out -- >> what was that one you could buy in a box >> casper. >> i think they were a disrupter --

>> yeah, that's cool >> i care about sleep. >> is that why you like a bed? >> yes, and i told you about my bed, it's an eight sleep mattresses, and it's called eight sleep as in eight hours of sleep. it changes temperature during the night based on what cycle of sleep i am in. it's tracking my sleep while i am in the bed. >> is it linked to -- >> what happens if you don't get eight hours, does it throw the whole thing off? >> no, it's based on you it's extending your deep sleep you are getting longer recommend sleep. i have improved all my saw 'ti --

statistics -- >> do you combine it with a my pillow 2.0 >> no, my pillow is no good. >> you will like the way you feel >> just so you know, you can run your side at whatever temperatures you like, and your partner or spouse's side at a different temperature. do it however you like >> the news you can use, folks >> i never watch fox news. >> you don't >> no. i can do a good mike lindell >> why is that long-term challenges for sleep -- no, long term challenges for the credit, and -- well, here to explain, joe motto is the chief officer at newberger berman. how is your sleep?

>> first time back in the studio since the pandemic good to be here. >> how should everybody's sleep be right now >> i think you have a couple things going on as it relates to the debt ceiling and the credit issue you referenced, and the senior loan officer data showe a tightening of standards not as worrying as one might have thought given what was happening in the banking system, and credit is the life blood of the economy so that credit situation is worry some and then you throw on top of that the debt ceiling feels like the meeting in the white house today will be a kickoff of the drama we will be faced with over the next course of the month >> when you get to q4, you will see some of the credit issues

roll that has been problematic for the banks. and people are feeling maybe things are temporarily over, but are they over? >> i think you have seen some of the deposit data show you are not seeing the significant outflows you would worry, and yet at the same time there's a skittishness because we saw with silicon valley and some other banks how quickly it flows left, and lots of characteristics that were not shared by the other regional banks, but that's something you saw in the stocks opening up big and getting pounded last week, and it's not over yet in terms of the skiddishness in the market >> you will have to pay more to keep the depositors -- >> yeah, it's more of an earnings issue >> yeah, they are looking at the model for banks and what profitability will look like >> what do you think -- you

spend a lot of time thinking about this what do you think the framework should be? >> if you look at what was done with the large banks, you need to hold more liquidity and have a bigger capital cushion >> and that would drain credit from the public? >> that's one of the concerns. right, and as much as we have the fragmented system that people like to criticize, those banks are providing credit deposit payers are higher and you will have to pay more to keep deposits, and what do you do with guarantee deposits, and i will leave that to the senators to figure out >> is it weird in a macro sense, i don't if i want a recession to happen so the fed stops, or if we avoid a recession, which we are doing, but then the fed

doesn't stop what do we want? a mild slowdown that allows the fed to stop? >> three ways the fed will end up stopping, one of the ways is that we are in a recession -- >> we don't want that, but they do >> i don't know if they want a recession but they want inflation to go down and then the only popular way for the fed to stop is for the inflation to slow down we think there are a number of components of inflation that will remain sticky as we go through the year end you will see inflation come down, and if you are at 5.5, and the inflation is at 3, that's a steep rate of inflation -- >> if you didn't have to kill demand to get inflation to go down, that would be great.

>> if a khraoeupt client were t and say is there a regional bank you would buy at these prices, is there one you would buy >> predominantly it's owning the largest banks, and we own some we have lots of clients that buy and sell every day >> yeah, this is a real value play >> there are banks that dominate the share in their particular community, the larger banks don't compete there and they have generated positive returns and stable -- have had stable deposits >> would some of the banks been on the list two months ago >> i think silicon valley was unique in many ways. it was not common among others

we didn't own any on first republic >> thank you for coming in this morning. appreciate it. get some sleep >> good to see you guys. >> thanks. when we come back, ev sta startup fisker ceo joining us. before the break, look at the markets. s&p down by 16 yesterday none of the major averages budged far. ths&p e was up slightly and the dow down slightly. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. a company just reported earnings, beating estimates of 15 cents and for a full year, expected to be flat, just slightly up. the expectations were a 3.7% growth check out the shares of lucid, the ev maker said it had a couple cash to continue to operate into next year, and it's on track to produce over 10,000 vehicles in

2023 we're talking autos and evs, we are going to talk to phil, and yes, we are. he joins us now. >> good morning. fisker just reported its q1 results and wider than expected loss, and henrik revenue well below expectations and just now beginning deliveries what do you say to investors looking at these results and guidance and they are questioning if these guys can make it? >> well, you know, we just delivered our first couple of cars, so now we are moving from a startup company to an actual revenue-generating car company that's always the beginning. and i think it's a strong showing that despite the fact that the obligation, which means

it took many more cars than we expected, and i am going to try and push that number higher, and we think our results are good. >> you have not got it certificated for delivery in the u.s., correct? >> we don't have the epa rating, and epa already completed their tests with the vehicle and now we are waiting for their rating so we can deliver cars in the u.s. we expect to get that this month. actually, shortly. >> henrik, what is 42,400, and there's a report out this morning that your production plants showed down because of a software issue is there a issue with the software for the ocean >> i am surprised you are

quoting bloomberg with that ridiculous article we said in the last year we will launch with less software in our -- especially in the aidious package, and i think some of the issues we have had has been, for example, with a hardware supplier which went bankrupt only three weeks ago, and we had to go in and actually get the tools out which we successfully did only last week you know, we are going through a lot of the issues everybody else are, but despite that we are going full speed rate next week, and we can produce a lot of cars and at the end of the month we will produce 55 cars a day, and later in the year we will do over 6,000 vehicles a month and that's a record for any ev startup at any time in the first year of production

>> we understand magna has a long record when it comes to manufacturing. the phrlant in ohio, that's a different story. you pushed out your plans for the next model to 2025 how confident are you you will get that in production in east ohio >> i was just in a conversation with the chairman, and we are still working on the plans for production we postponed it because we actually came up with new ideas and new developments in our vehicle to reduce the parts by 25%, while still keeping the base price of 29,900 it also needs innovating manufacturing efforts. we have the ira, which means we do need battery manufacturing in the u.s., which is something we

are working on with some parties right now, and that's a reason we had to postpone that to 2025, and it helps us to be able to plan that, and we are more engaged with foxconn and our manufacturing team >> henrik, i appreciate you joining us this morning, on a morning where fisker overall reported a wider than expected loss, and they are pushing out or cutting their production guidance for this year it was 42,400 vehicles, now down to 36,000. >> thank you next uonp "squawk box," a recession could be unavoidable

we have that story right after the break. es together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) with the push of a button, constant contact's ai tools help you know what to say, even when you don't. hi! constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

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survey suggests a recession is pro probably not avoidable at this point. joining us is the financial group chief investment officer and a cnbc contributor peter, you look at this realistically, and it was taken at a difficult time, march 27th through april 5th, was it? >> yep >> you read into this what we just had somebody telling us it could have been worst than the numbers we saw, and the numbers we saw weren't great >> what is unusual about what we are seeing with the banks is typically banks fail or they tighten lending standards after you are already in a recession because it's the recession that causes bad credits and that causes banks to stress this time it was the sharp rise in interest rates that created

the duration bubble that has now reversed, as we have seen with some of the ones that failed then a further tightening of lending standards before a credit downturn has really begun. this is different than what we have seen prior, and with lending standards tight, they are going to get tighter and the extension of credit will lead to a downturn in the contraction of the economy, and it's only growing at less than 1% anyway >> you think the contraction will catch up when do you think it's already happening? >> i looked at the economy in two parts, and i think the second quarter is where the reflection will be in terms of the slowdown

listened to a lot of earnings conference calls and a lot of commentary about the back end of march into april, and business slowing down if you only grew 1% in the first quarter with the benefit of a good january and february, to me it's going to be tough to avoid a contraction in q2, and feven i the estimates are still for a positive growth, i think you will still have that >> there is less demand for the loans, too, and it was not a situation of standards tightening up, but businesses were likely to seek out a loan maybe that spells out a little bit of the freeze happening right now, and i don't know how much of that is built around the panic built around the spv at that time? >> a lot of companies use their revolvers to finance inventories

and we know the inventories are elevated the data yesterday showed the ratio at a high. companies are dealing with the inventory they have until they work down the inventories. >> the next best indication or read on what is happening with credit will be what? >> now we have to watch the duh l delinquencies, and we know that banks will continue to slow the extension of credit and nonbanks will step in, and then banks will offer double digit type of interest rates that's what is next here the fed doesn't need to raise

interest rates any higher in order to first tighten policy because just keeping rates high for a while is, itself, a continued form of tightening, because every month, every quarter that goes by from here somebody's debt is going to be resetting at a much higher price than the loan that is maturing >> peter, thank you. >> thanks, becky still to come, president biden meeting with congressional leaders at the white house to try and reach a deal on the debt ceiling. cnbc celebrating asian pacific islander heritage throughout the month of may, sharing stories of influential aapi business leaders. and here's tinder's

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later today leaders from the white house and senate will meet with president biden at the white house to try and reach a deal on the cloudy skies speaker mccarthy, and house leader jeffries and mcconnell will attend. joining us, former senator, pat toomey, who most recently served as the lead republican on the banking committee. heidi, i don't see any difference between chicago and north dakota i don't. it's similar, isn't it

you fit right in no language instruction, right >> i wake up in my apartment in chicago and look out over the wheat fields that are down below me >> that's a little different heidi, instead of what should happen, what do you think will happen today do you see cooler heads prevailing and maybe we find middle ground? >> i think there will be more posturing today and a lot of bluster, but eventually i think they will have to reach a deal we will have to come to the middle and the question is, is this something the republicans accomplish and the democrats accomplish together, and there's no heroes in the story but the real villains will be if we can't come together to fashion a result to avoid this crisis. >> heidi -- senator, you are a cnbc contributor and we are

colleagues so i don't know why we can't be on a first-name basis. you don't expect the president to keep saying again and again i won't do anything but a clean raise? is that finally going to be something that he softens on a little bit he has to be >> i think joe biden is a dealmaker. he likes making deals and i think he realizes he's not doing as well in the polls as he would like, and he needs to avoid this because the economic crisis in the middle of the early decision-mak decision-making on the 2024 election would not be good for him. but there are hard party liners saying hold the line i think you need to look at what the other caucus members are saying >> he has been resistance with a

lot of decisions, and he doesn't look at the polls that way >> joe, i think they were betting mccarthy would not have been able to get something out of the house the posture was, look, we will see what you have. now mccarthy has been able to deliver a bargaining position, and it's up to biden to respond, i think. >> you said that last time i was looking at the notes last time you were on, show us what you got, speaker, and he did and that pulled the rug out from a lot over there pat toomey is here, and you guys worked ogether, and did you ge along, heidi >> we got along. hi, heidi. >> hi. good to see you. >> i think heidi is right. by the way, what they attached to it most americans would think

that's pretty reasonable, like take spending back to where it was five months ago and let it grow and claw back some of the excess covid spending that has not spent yet. >> but i thought they were extreme maga hyperinsane -- >> the assumption was it would be that or nothing, and so president biden figured well i can just wait them out when they put something on his desk, i think this is completely unsustainable to refuse to negotiate. he may not acknowledge he's negotiating, but he will have to >> everybody is happy, heidi >> absolutely, except for some that want to hold the line on permitting but they are starting to realize they can't get their goals on climate and renewables if we don't see some permitting reform i would caution everybody, some

of the biggest holdups is not the federal government but local government on what people can do on eminent domain, so it will be interesting, but i think permitting is something schumer agreed to with mcconnell, and they want to lower cost and move us towards a carbon free kind of energy economy >> you guys talked about this a lot, but the way the energy picture changed for the world and the way america has become an exporter of natural gas, and pennsylvania is the number two producer behind texas only, and the big limiting factor on more production is pipelines, the fact there's nowhere to put the gas. that has to change heidi is right, there's a local component to this, and also the federal statute is meant to

defeat progress and not meant to adjudicate a substantive difference that would be great if there was permitting reform. >> so many times in the past, people seem so dug in. how do they backtrack and reverse their positions? >> one way it happens is both sides win. so what is joe biden's redline he has to be able to claim the debt ceiling was raised without him having negotiated for it what is kevin mccarthy's redline, he cannot pass a clean debt ceiling, so you find a way to make changes, create enough separation so president biden can say, oh, these are unrelated and kevin mccarthy can say this is what i got. >> probably, permitting gets thrown out because it's not tied to the budget stuff. negotiate it somewhere else, right? >> there's a lot of moving parts

that is a menu, really, that the republicans in the house passed, and i am surprised how modest it is, really but a combination of those things >> i have been trying to figure out, because what we hear from democrats, every time trump wanted to raise it it was a clean debt ceiling, and then eight out of the last 11 there were a lot of things that went along and there was not a clean debt ceiling -- toomey never voted for a single debt ceiling increase, and so do you remember negotiations at some point do you remember it heidi >> sure, when you look at the trump years, somehow the religion was not there and you passed debt ceiling increases without any increases -- >> but pelosi wanted to

negotiate. >> well, i want to challenge pat a little bit, when the talking point is, look, you cut wheels on deals but made sure the ethanol deal was taken care of, and that's not a good look from a new york or manhattan republican >> as i understand it, the house bill says let's take spending back to where it was last year and this is discretionary spending, and the auto pilot programs and big entitlement programs, and let it grow at 1%. that would have to be hashed out. i don't think that leaves enough for the defense budget, but it's amazing republicans were able to come together around that. >> heidi, leaving entitlements as is, and that's the ultimate can we keep kicking and nobody

has the political will to address that from either side? >> that's the point i keep making, when you take off defense spending and entitlement programs to do what you need to do, what the republicans promised they would do, you have to cut discretionary spending 70%, and that's unrealistic to lay down the market, and there's no hero of the story let's not kid ourselves. both sides have not paid enough attention to this, and they played you did it because you did it, and you cut back to >> in divided government we almost have a budgetary fight over the debt ceiling. the big picture is tax revenue collected by the federal government is running higher in 2022, and spending has rocketed.

we have a spending problem and have to deal with that >> how is the white sox, heidi did you pick >> well, i love the white sox -- i am not a hater, and they are in the same decision so i am not a white sox fan. >> i thought you were a field of dreams -- >> no, go twins. >> you bet real good. thank you for being with us today. we would be in better shape if -- >> a lot better shape. still to come this morning, goldman sachs settling a long-running discrimination lawsuit. we have the details, next. plus, get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast, just follow squawkpod on your favorite daily podcast we'll be right back.

this is real time insights thank you for joining us as we continue to see the metaverse and web free evolve, how are they impacted businesses >> businesses are in the metaverse and web three because that's where the business is, from fashion designers to game developers, it's a new experience for customers when you create value, that creates taxability >> could this be the next big opportunity for tax then >> yeah, it may well be. if you thought tax was complex already, buckle up this borderless marketplace will push governments and companies

to answer the key text question of the decade. how do you tax digital assets and services answering that question is easier said than done. >> what do businesses need to do now to get the tax strategy right? >> lean in and engage with the business, and understand the met verse and web 3 case uses, and think about enterprise, which is learning and development the companies that get their tax and finance groups involved early to avoid pitfalls and avoid operational pitfalls will do better. >> thank you for your expertise. >> thank you for having me

welcome back to "squawk. goldman sachs to pay 215 million in a lawsuit an expert will analyze how goldman promotes staffers from junior to senior positions, and it covers about 2,800 women between the early 2000 and this year, and one-third of the money will beset aside for the legal fees, which means each employee will be paid about $47,000 after all the fees and other things are paid put taxes in there >> i guess on average that would be it, yeah. >> we got a statement from the company saying goldman sachs is proud of its long record, and after more than a decade of

vigorous litigation both parties agreed to resolve this matter. we will continue to focus on our clients and business, the bank says when we come back, president biden's agenda gets reaction from jay clayton, next from jay clayton, next and then the 11th annual list of ♪ d disrupters the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪

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skyline on a may day it's nice outside. competition plays out across a wide range of dimensions, and our job is to make sure we understand those dimensions, whether it's price for subscribers or advertising costs for advertisers, the ability of programmers to get funding to develop their programming. there are a wide range of considerations that go into antitrust enforcement and we have to look at the facts. >> for more on whether antitrust laws help or hurt you as a

business, jay jamison is here. i am curious what you thought of the interview, and also the approach that you think this administration has been taking >> let me break those into two parts. i thought the interview was pas i thought the interview was fantastic, because i thought jonathan was very candid about his view of how the anti-trust laws should be applied to our economy. he was very direct saying, look, market power and size is something that we worry about, and i think in many cases, what we're seeing is market power and size are presumptively a problem, particularly in the merger context >> and your view is that they should not be presumptive. >> that's a shift. look, my own view, and i would not call myself an anti-trust expert, i think i understand the regulatory stance, that's not where i would be i think that, you know, consumer welfare, as a consideration over the last, let's call it 40

years, has served our consumers very well. i mean, i could pull out my iphone and say, look, the price that we pay for that kind of computing power in our pocket is remarkable consumers all benefit from it. what would we do if we had stifled -- >> yesterday -- >> to talking about regulation, when apple went public in 1980, it was blocked in some states, i won't name them, as too risky. can you imagine that apple -- the largest and i would say one of the most influential companies in the world, delivering amazing things to consumers, every day, cheaply. it was viewed as too risky an investment by state regulators i think that that, that that's a lesson >> what if you're doing everything fair and not monopoly, and you have power and size >> our law is pretty clear if you're doing everything fair -- >> you just said if it's power and size, you don't have to be

doing anything wrong >> i think when he was drawing the line, when you have power and size, if you're adding through acquisitions, they're going to look -- >> what we talked about yesterday, even when he's not bringing a case, in a way, this administration has effectively intimidated corporate america, rightly or wrongly, into not pursuing deals and other transactions that they might otherwise want to try to do in other administrations. >> that does get to the -- look, do i agree with where they are i think incredibly restrictive, gary cohn and i published an op-ed saying the ftc is presumptively anti-merger. the use of what i say is foreign regulators to achieve domestic policy objectives is absurd. at least businesses can plan >> it wasn't different in the last administration. that president trump himself squashed some deals. ask at any time about what the went through, saying that they

were doing just fine with the deal they were bringing up it seems to me if you are a business and you're looking for certainty, it's disappeared for decades. >> i agree the more certainty, the better for people to plan these are 5, 10, 15-year decisions. you need certainty, and you particularly need certainty. >> by the way, the trump administration may have been similar, and some people, i don't know who you think is going to win in 2024 but the populous left and the populous right, if you will, thinks there's not enough competition today. >> i think, andrew, on that, we do have a bit of a nostalgic view of competition, right we talk about competition in our domestic market of 316 million people in a world that's going to 8 billion people. we're deeply integrated with china and the like

not looking at the markets globally, for what i would say is clearly global industries is a mistake. >> when you look at prices, and i hate to pick on them, but you look at the airlines, for example, and you can see prices, and especially, by the way, in an inflationary environment, right -- >> 1975 levels >> there have been periods of time in the airline space where there was a lot more competition. there just was there was a lot more competition than there was today it's impossible -- what i'm saying is a miracle. there were more -- there were the incumbents, there were the jetblue at one point was actually a discount carrier. it was just a different marketplace. i love my iphone i love it. i like the safety, the app store, i love everything about it but i'm also -- >> -- put you on people express -- >> -- but i'm intellectually honest enough to say that i recognize that this is now the conduit and it is effectively

the front door store for a lot of people selling product to consumers. i get that and we as a society have to decide what's supposed to happen i actually like it this way. but other people may not >> including shopping for airline tickets. you can compare prices across airlines and routes in, what, five minutes, using your phone imagine how much faster that is, than when you used to have to call up and -- >> it's actually remarkable. >> no, no, no, i'm not saying they're colluding. i'm saying there's less, less -- there's just less competition. >> i would argue -- i would argue that there's more competition, because there's more information available to the consumer >> that's an interesting -- by the way, i love that piece of it there is so much more information to actually go where they want to go. >> when i was at the s.e.c., the most powerful thing you could do was to provide price transparency to people in the marketplace.

if you know exactly what they're paying for a particular product, they can shop and drive prices down, like, you know, the cost of access for retail investors has -- >> that's a piece that we never hear about you never hear regulators say, because of access to information, it's going to change while we have quyou here, i need to ask you two other real quick questions. there's been a lot of debate about whether there should be some kind of rules around short selling. and i'm curious where you land on that. and i ask, because, what you have is a situation where so many of the regional banks, you're watching the stocks go down even if you believe that there's a guarantee out there for the deposits, you're a treasurer of a small or medium-sized business at one of these banks, you say, maybe my money is safe, maybe it isn't. that unto itself creates a self-fulfilling prophesy what do you do >> price discovery is one of the most important parts of our marketplace. being on the long and short side of the market is key to price

discovery. we have experience with short sale bans. the data is it didn't really do anything and may have cost the market money when would a short sale ban be appropriate? it would be appropriate when that price discovery is not working. there's information that needs to get into the market place that is not yet there. so i'm generally biased against those kinds of what i would say as artificial restraints on trading. the only time i could see one making sense is when that information is not available and you're banning short selling in order to let the information get into the market place. but we don't have that right now. >> and then we've got literally no time. come on back we've got to talk about crypto certain cryptos that are now going to be illegal, that the s.e.c. put out a list on, that's actually pretty interesting. but come on back and we'll discuss that, because we're out of time. we should also mention, by the way, you should come on back and respond to this, too the ftc chair, lina khan will join us tomorrow morning at 8:15

eastern time as well of course, she is in the middle of so many of these transactions, which may or may not get blocked. we'll talk about it. "squawk" coming right back

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good morning, stock futures pointing lower before the opening bell the dow down five at the last trading sessions and debt ceiling drama as the treasury secretary again warning about the consequences of america failing to pay its bills. and a big earnings mover this morning. fox, we're going to dig into the broadcaster and talk about the state of media in a world being upended by streaming final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" at the cnbc market site. i'm joe kernan along with andrew ross sorkin and becky quick. the dow was down 125 points.

the s&p and nasdaq both managed small gains yesterday. they're not diverging today from the industrials and also headed south. let's take a look at treasuries, which i think the two-year did go above 4 again yesterday, but it's back below 398. ten-year below 3.5 so, those have been the markers, recently 4% for the two-year, 3.5 for the ten-year even with all of this other stuff happening. >> take a look at the four-week treasury bill, one-month >> the bill. >> it's a little bit different one-month t-bill, 5.397% >> per month >> but to convince people to give you money for a month >> that's about the return of your principle >> which i still can't imagine something like that happens. bill gross said yesterday, he's buying this stuff. warren buffett said over the weekend that berkshire is buying the one-month, because of these

heightened rates but again, it tells you that we're having to pay more to finance our debt at the immediate moment >> those guys see a month at 5%, they can't help themselves >> north of 5% >> $3 billion is what berkshire put into it. >> and bill gross. >> same thing. >> has $3 billion to put into it >> among today's top business stories, president biden will be addressing the debt limit stalemate today at a meeting with the top republicans and democrats from the house and senate treasury secretary janet yellen has warned the government could be out of its cash to pay all of its bills by the beginning of next month it's been more than three months since biden and house speaker kevin mccarthy had a substantiative sit-down. we're going to talk much more about this with lazard's peter orszag that's coming up in just a bit a federal judge is proposing a class action against twitter for allegedly targeting female employees for layoffs after elon musk bought the company. the judge said the suit was what he called devoid of basic information like the plaintiff's positions with twitter

but he did say that they would be able to amend their lawsuit and add more details and take a look at oil prices this morning we had crude under pressure for much of the year so far, but this morning, saudi arabian state oil giant aramco reported a 19% drop in first quarter earnings however, we had $30.5 billion in net income, it did beat the street's expectations, and wti this morning down about 1%, but back above $70 $72.41 >> let's get over to dom chu right now with a look at this morning's top pre-market movers. dom! >> so two of the biggest pre-market movers are tied to earnings reports after last night's close. we'll start with the big gainer, and that's pallantirpalantir, w surging. it's up around 16.4% after it reported better than expected revenues in part due to a 50% rise in the number of business customers here in the u.s. ceo alex carp also said that palantir expects to be

profitable for each quarter for the balance of this year moving in the opposite direction, you have shares of paypal, which are down roughly 5.5%, just around 400,000 shares of pre-market volume, after the company behind its namesake payments network, also venmo peer-to-peer payment systems, reported better than expected quarterly results, but also gave what's viewed as a more disappointing current quarter guidance total payments, volume, that growth in better than expected and we'll end on the takeover tuesday story of the morning, that mattress maker temper sealy buying mattress firm in a cash and stock deal worth $4.4 billion. $2.7 billion of that is in cash, $1.3 billion is going to be in t tempur stock that will significantly increase the total number of retail store fronts for tempur. separately, tempur reported quarterly results that were generally viewed as being more positive tempur stock is down around 3% or so, you can see on 60,000

shares of volume don't sleep on this deal joe, i'll send things back over to you >> dom, thanks let's talk more about the markets with investors particularly focused on tomorrow's cpi data and producer prices on thursday joining us is jpmorgan asset management karen ward. i love this, karen you were the share of the k council of the economic advisers for the chancellor of the exchequer. >> i'm still an adviser to the new chancellor so, that's my little side hustle >> and we're going to talk global, because at jpmorgan, it's really europe, the middle east, and africa that you're in charge of, but i'm sure you've got thoughts about the global economy and everything that's happening domestically, as well. >> absolutely. >> so the fed at this point, you're worried, because inflation is sticky. 2% is still a long way off and the consumer is strong sounds like a great combination, unless you're trying to make money in the stock market, i

guess. >> i think inflation is absolutely critical. because it provides the degrees of freedom that the fed has. this print that we're going to get tomorrow is going to cause market volatility in one direction or another we just don't know which yet if inflation really starts to ease and that shelter component which everyone is looking to to drive cpi back down, if that really starts to ease off, then the market is going to interpret that as the fed can reprioritize its attention on growth. and whatever happens with regards to the banking spillovers, then the fed is there. the fed can support. if that inflation number is sticky and core services and the domestically generated inflation still coming from the labor market, if that's still persistent, the fed is much more hamstrung. and then we're in a difficult scenario, because it can't react to some of that news, perhaps quite as quickly as it otherwise might. it's a really important release. >> it was an interesting friday with that jobs number, because it ended up, a pretty strong

number, although there were revisions. we had a big gain in the markets, but don't you think that we were looking forward to a jobs number and inflations number to try to gauge what the fed is trying to do. >> ultimately, the market loves goldilo goldilocks, right? we're desperate for goldilocks to come back and demonstrate that we can have very strong growth with really low inflation. so that print on friday was just on the right side of not being too hard the economy is still producing jobs wage growth, there are some signs that the heat is coming out of that. so it was just about okay. but i think the jury is still very much out on quite how quickly those inflationary pressures are going to ease. here in the u.s., and more, it's looking more difficult, more persistent over the europe >> we took it for granted, goldilocks the opposite of goldilocks is stagflation. high inflation, low growth that's the worst >> i don't think we'll stick with that. and i think, moderately higher persistent inflation is also good good for investors

>> 3%, i think >> sweet spot, 100%. look at europe last decade we had one of the lowest inflation regions. that was not a sign of economic health that was a sign of ill health. very core corporate earnings there's no pricing power so coming back to a world where inflation is a little bit higher, that's better corporate earnings it's good for investor, because we're going to get better rer returns on a consistent basis. so i often hear that clients will say to me, hang on, don't we need zero inflation and zero interest rates to be optimistic about markets? and i just think that's not right. it's really good, zero inflation, zero interest rates for mega-cap growth. so if you want mega-cap growth to be the big performer as a gain for the next cycle, we need to go back there but actually, if we settle into something that's a bit healthier, higher inflation, we're going to get broader performance. so for me, one of the key things

i'm trying to get across to clients and investors, don't use the last cycle as your template. we're in a different world the combination of the pandemic and the energy crisis has switched us out of that austerity driven weakness, and we immediate to think about changing performance on that basis. >> interesting in fact, you do mention that another consensus was that europe was going to have a real problem with the energy crisis they managed it pretty well. and as a result, you point out with ukraine and the pandemic, they're united and so no austerity, but -- so things are going to get better there's going to be growth >> absolutely. i think people underestimate the role that government austerity played in the last decade in europe, last decade. you know, europe rolled out of the financial crisis, straight into the sovereign crisis,and the mind-set in governments then was cutbacks, paying debt back now, that mind-set has changed

i would say it's changed also here with governments now focused -- >> we must be your idol. >> we're definitely looking for direction, for sure. >> we're giving it to you. >> it's a different narrative right now. it's about growing into our debt it's about you know, building back narrative this is the narrative that we hear across all of the political spectrums. and business and government investment is accelerating over next few years our fiscal stimulus in europe wasn't of the nature that you had here our's was about russia's vision of ukraine has just turbo charged that whole narrative, because now, we had a 2050 climate objective. now we have a 2025 energy security objective so, all of that spending and all of that transition that was going to happen over 30 years now has to happen in two >> where were you over the weekend? were you here? >> yeah, i came out yesterday. so i missed my bank holiday. >> but did you get up early on

saturday were you watching the coronation >> absolutely, yeah. >> what time did you get up? >> i didn't watch the full buildup, i'll be honest, but i watched the ceremony >> my daughter as a corgi. >> oh, really, wow >> greatest dog. >> but we feel kind of in certain ways -- >> royal >> well, we feel some affinity towards the queen and -- we do >> we felt quite proud the nation came together on the day. it was nice. >> it's kind of cool i see why people look at it and, you know, think, here we are in this day and age with income inequality and you see that, but i think it makes everybody feels good >> it did. >> it's the most i've ever liked king charles anyway, thank you. good to have you on. >> a pleasure. when we come back, we're going to go inside one of this morning's key reports. fox third quarter numbers out just moments ago we've got analyst barton crockett standing by to help

break them down. first, as we head to a break, let's check out some of the pre-market movers we're seeing this morning we've got semiconductor stock skyworks falling hard, down by almost 10% the company's third quarter earnings and revenues came in below expectations and then there's ev maker lucid, also down after reporting a much bigger quarterly loss versus last yr.ea that stock also down by about 9.5% stay tuned you're watching "squawk box. and this is cnbc what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

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introducing the next generation 10g network only from xfinity. the future starts now. take a look at futures dow off about 800. the s&p off 1400 the nasdaq off about 56 points fox just out with fiscal third quarter results. the broadcaster reporting adjusted earnings per share of 94 cents that's better than the 80 cents that was expected by the street. the company is authorizing a $7 billion buyback. that stock right now up by about 4% joining us right now for more on the quarter and the state of media is barton crockett, senior analyst at rosenblatt securities and barton, you've got a neutral rating on this stock does anything you hear here change your mind >> look, i think it was a solid quarter.

it was a backward looking quarter. i think the neutral rating that we have reflects the pressures and the opportunities at fox so what we see is a company that's very fully exposed to the paid tv bundle, where we see big secular kind of headwinds. what has been the opportunity for fox is they've been a very excellent executer within that bundle but that execution kind of story begins to be challenged by the news flow recently, with the settlements, the loss of a popular anchor, and so while this quarter was a good quarter. they had the super bowl, the affiliate trends were all slightly better than we had been modeling ebitda margins were good the question is what's going to happen from here with ratings taking a hit the transaction from tucker. i think they can navigate this i think they have a history of evaluating people. that they take this lot, tune into the audience, and fox moves

on but this is a bigger, more interesting challenge than what they've gone through in the past so a little bit more of a nail biter from here. >> a bigger, more interesting challenge because of tucker carlson or a bigger, more interesting challenge because of the legal settlement that they came to and the additional lawsuits that still remain >> i think both of those things. and also just the world, right so, you know, you could have people go off and, you know, start services like the blaze and not matter, but the internet's big for the opportunity to go off and do their own thing is bigger. so, you know, i think that the backdrop for someone like tucker to go off and be, you know, large on their own is much more meaningful than historically you know, what does that mean in this day and age of essentially creators, personalities able to get more resonance than ever before on their own. >> hey, barton, just quickly, there's a bunch of stories out

today that advertisers are returning to the 8:00 hour some of them that were uncomfortable with some of the content of tucker carlson, but the ratings have got to be down, i don't know, you probably know how much ratings are down with the new people is it subfees still for fox or was it -- how did they make so much money when the advertisers had already left a lot of them had left tucker already. it's more sub-fees anyway. does this help that advertisers are coming back, even to much lower ratings? >> you know, yes, the affiliate fees are -- and subscriber fees, fox nation that's really the core of this business model it does insulate you from advertising, but a more kind of friendly, advertiser-friendly person in the seat there, sure, that could be great. you know, we'll see how they execute, but you need your audience if you lose your audience, you

don't have anything. and that's the test that they're facing right here. can they manage this transition like they have the others? >> have you thought of the possibility? will they let tucker carlson out of his deal? and, i mean, you could see, he is different than bill o'reilly or anyone else you could see him going to a news max, and that would be a viable, theoretically, competitor to fox it almost seems like it could almost displace fox for that audience. will they let him out? >> look, i don't know what leverage tucker has to get out, you know, clearly, he has the kind of ability to kind of jawbone and talk, and make things, you know, painful for people and i don't know i mean, i do think that for fox, it's good for the business if he's not on the air for this presidential cycle i don't know if they can accomplish that, but it would be good for them. >> barton, just in terms of what happened, the lawsuit that was brought against them, the others

that are in the wings waiting, how did that happen? >> you know, it's a head scratcher to me. you know, i was a journalist before i became a sellside analyst, and there were always attorneys who looked at things i did that were controversial and would stop me from, you know, getting into a place that got me in a trouble and i would have assumed that that would happen at any professional media organization. it didn't happen here at a level that is, you know, just amazing. i do think that it will have to happen going forward i don't think you can be a viable business without better lawyering and better respect for the legal risks than that this company has had. >> which means what for the people who have been there through this they have more oversight, or it's different people? >> i think it's more oversight i think you'll have an attorney reviewing and people listening to what the attorney says. they better, or it's going to be more problems. >> barton, thank you >> great, thank you. >> okay, coming up on the other

side of this, congressional leaders scheduled to meet with president biden on the debt ceiling today. we're going to talk about what's at stake with former office of management and budget director, peter orszag and a programming note, don't miss a big interview tomorrow. it's at 8:15 eastern time. the federal trade commission chair, lina khan in the middle ki rhtowny mergers and deal mangig n she'll be on "squawk box." we're coming right back after this

welcome back goldman sachs is planning to pay more than $200 million to settle a class action lawsuit that alleges bias at the bank against women. former employees said that goldman systemically paid women less than men and stymied their career growth through performance reviews. in a statement, goldman said it was proud of its long history of promoting women. those who sues will be collecting about $47,000 each after the legal fees of course, the lawyers take a third of everything. >> and rightly so. >> so that's like $70 million. >> yeah. >> and it's split -- they just divide it by the -- some people don't have more claim -- >> i don't know -- that's on average. >> but the truth is -- lock, if each -- if each of these women brought a case individually, this wouldn't even pay for the legal fees

think about that >> right elon musk is breaking ground on a new lithium refining facility for tesla, just outside of corpse christie, texas. texas governor greg abbott joined musk at the event the new facility is the first of its kind in north america, slated to produce battery-grade lithium and house battery materials processing, refining, and manufacturing operations musk said construction will begin immediately, with production reaching full capacity about a year after that facility is completed. when we come back, former office of management and budget director, peter orszag will share his thoughts on the debt ceiling stalemate in washington. right now, as we head to a break, here's -- sorry, here's treasury secretary janet yellen issuing yet another warning late yesterday on cnbc. >> the dollar is regarding in treasury securities as the bedrock safe asset in the entire

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. futures have improved a little, at least for the dow it's no longer down 130, 150 points, down about 80. still in the red for the nasdaq and the s&p, which both actually closed higher yesterday. the nasdaq was up out of bear market territory about 20%. so it's a bull market. >> like trying to figure out if a bull market in bitcoin treasury's ten-year, 3.29, are now below 4% again some breaking news just out from boeing. phil lebeau joins us with more on that. phil, good morning d >> good morning, becky this is a massive order that boeing is announcing with one of its largest and most important customers, ryanair out of

ireland. this is an order for 150 737 max-10 those are the stretch version, the largest version of the max first deliveries are going to start for that model late next year, ryanair will get them in the 2027, 2027 time frame. total list value, just over $40 billion. ryanair is not paying $40 billion for all of these planes. nobody buys anything at list price in the commercial airplane business and ryanair certainly is going to be paying a much lower amount nonetheless, it is a huge deal for boeing and for ryanair for ryanair, they will be using the new max planes to replace their older 737-ngs once these start filtering into the fleet in the '27-'28 time frame. for boeing, this is the largest single order in terms of the number of aircraft potentially 300 airplanes. and ryanair is expected to ultimately exercise those options for another 150. this sets up a huge interview we

have coming up a little bit later on this morning on "squawk on the street. you don't want to miss our exclusive interview with boeing ceo, dave calhoun, as well as michael o'leary, ceo of ryanair. i just talked to dave calhoun a few minutes ago, guys, and he said, i'm looking forward to having you talk with me and michael. he's our greatest champion also our greatest critic, as you guys well know he does not hold back in terms of his criticism for boeing. but today, he is placing a huge order, 150 firm orders for 737 max-10s and the option to buy another 150. we'll talk about it throughout the morning. that's certainly coming up on "squawk on the street. guys, back you >> phil, thanks. you're right michael ryan has been incredibly critical, saying things that you normally don't hear in business negotiations the stuff that he has said over the last year, just about how -- i think he's even said that they should fire the management of boeing if they can't make the deliveries on some of these things that they've got serious

problems so, the idea that now it's -- all's good, all's well again, and we're going to sit down as buddies. >> becky, let's clear. i don't think anybody truly thought that ryanair would ever move away from boeing. it's always had a boeing fleet it's an all-boeing fleet, all 737s that's their business plan the odds of them moving away to air bbus were extremely low and nobody in the airline business thought that they were ultimately going to do that. that said, michael o'leary's can d dor, and the fact that he's willing to call out boeing for their past mistakes, that's not only public negotiating, but him saying, look, we can do better boeing can do better >> i think it's just candor, it's completely bluster. >> yeah -- >> it's the type of stuff you only hear from a person like trump. >> well, some ofthat -- but look, becky, is there a little bit of irish showman in him? absolutely absolutely also, is there some truth to

some of the things that he has said in the past about boeing and its management and its execution, how they came out of the max crashes and went through the grounding of the max planes? you bet there was a lot of honesty in there honesty that boeing management probably didn't want to hear publicly, but that michael o'leary is like, somebody's going to say it, i'm going to say it >> we've always appreciated michael coming on to talk about it i guess my question is, is it a successful negotiating tactic? do you get a better deal as a result >> sure! absolutely absolutely >> i don't think anybody would dispute that that's part of how he operates his business always has been the way he has operated as a ceo, which is one reason why people enjoy when we have a chance to talk with him live, as we will, coming up at 10:15. >> this is must-see tv what time is it? 10:15? we will definitely be watching >> yep >> phil, thank you we'll see you in a little bit. >> thank you >> he looked like he was in a tame machine on that picture that's a new one we're going to speak with former omb director peter orszag on the

debt ceiling in just a few minutes. but before that, let's talk about how the drama in d.c. has been impacting the bond market rick santelli joins us i guess you can find something you can find something, but i was saying earlier, 3.5 on the ten-year and 4 on the two-year, those, just two markers, it feels like we're either five ticks above or below either one of those levels for weeks now. so nothing's been happening. >> yeah, as a matter of fact, phil lebeau talking about ryanair's order with regard to boeing, if you show an intraday of tens gets more pop out of the ten-year than many of these stories on the debt ceiling. keep in mind, mainstream media has been pushing the debt story for months and months and months this has been like the centerpiece of financial news. the markets are definitely yawning a bit. you know what the market's paying attention to, joe here's what the markets are paying attention to. small business optimum index is

at the lowest level in ten years. through the first seven months of this fiscal year, we have $374 billion to service the debt and we still have a good chunk of the year left let's see, the adoption to ev and the whole fossil fuel phasing out process is going to prove to be -- put the "s" in sticky when it comes to inflationary pressures that's something to pay attention to when i look at t-bills, i can say that the three-month t-bill, or at least the t-bill that overlays the current action now that becky has been pointing to, 520ish yield, isn't alone. pretty much every t-bill is in that neighborhood. so we can make the case that it really is more of a function of what the fed's doing and if you want to talk about what the default swaps are saying, i think that the default swaps is one of those contracts that, i don't know, makes for some good reading and there are certain countries and certain companies, of course, that we pay close attention to

but does anybody out there really believe this is going to happen and, joe, let's commit heresy, here, joe. let's really go out on the ledge. let's say that by some freak of nature that it actually happened, it was actually default. maybe that's the onlyway to wrest the checkbook away from these people what do you think? >> rick, what happens if moody's then downgrades us as a result >> well, what happened when moody's downgraded us the last time nothing, okay? nothing. because we are the risk-free interest rate. everybody knows that's the -- >> we are until we aren't. >> any option class you take will make that abundantly clear, that the risk-free interest rate they use is basically our fed funds rate i don't see any of that changing and, i think when it comes to rating agencies and what credit is, let's just look at what's been going on with the regional banks and the banking system nobody is going to ever put up the white flag when they see an issue. the issues have to come to the

surface. because whether it's agencies or regulators or central banks, nobody is going to call attention to any wards at all, because they believe that that will cause warts to fester everywhere and it will change the dynamic of whatever market we're pointing out so in any case, i'm not sure that any of it matters i think the proof is watching the markets. joe's right. if there's any negative consequence to our paper being all over the world, as the highlight of risk-free paper, then why are we at 4% on a two-year, when the fed funds rate is purportedly going to continue to hover around 5%. >> because we think we're headed for -- >> well, that recession is trumping the default i don't know i think that also speaks volumes on the default side of the equation and when we get mr. peter orszag here, and i like peter orszag. he's definitely a straight shooter. you know, ask him how the president gets away with saying that, you know, he's cutting the

deficit more than any other president in history well, maybe because, under his term, it's gone up more than any other amount in history! so any cut would qualify you know, we're sending very mixed messages to all the young people in the world that probably don't understand exactly what's being handed off to them. hopefully peter orszag can kind of get through, because i'll tell you what, whether it's this administration or any administration, they're not being honest about the debt we're carrying and the fed, our central bank is certainly out to lunch when it comes to underscoring how debt kills growth and they can't even weigh in on it they kept interest rates so low for so long, and yet they can't be more honest about how this explosion in debt is going to be a killer of growth for all the generations to follow. >> all right, rick thank you, interesting for all of that.

thanks >> meantime, i want to get to that debt limit drama in washington treasury secretary janet yellen telling cnbc yesterday that there is only one way to bring to it a resolution >> the only option that really leaves our economy in good shape is in our financial system is raising the debt ceiling and making clear that congress stands behind the basic principle that america pays its bills. we're not a deadbeat country >> our next guest says the biden administration shouldn't simply agree to a one-year debt ceiling reprieve, because that would set the stage for an election year showdown with house republicans. joining us right now, peter orszag, the ceo of financial advisory firm at lazard and the former director of the office of management and budget under president obama. good morning to you. peter. >> good morning. >> peter, you probably just heard rick there i want to talk about the idea of just, you know, how long you think this should go

i appreciate the election year issue that you're raising. but at the same time, i'm curious, you know, when rick said that he thinks that the administration is not being forth rright with the public around our debt and deficit, do you think that's true too? >> well, at last whole debate to be had about the fiscal trajectory and that is a complicated topic. we do have long-term problems, so i don't want to deny any of that but that's a separate question from whether this particular mechanism is, you know, a good or bad thing in terms of even dealing with those long-term problems i don't think it is. so, yes, there's a long-term problem, but, no, this is not the right way to address it. >> is there a way to do this, though, as a clean bill the way the democrats that they want to do it? or do you think that there's some compromise in the middle? >> i really hope there's some compromise, but i'm not -- we're not seeing it so far

not very hopeful >> what do you think a reasonable compromise on the democrat side would be and a reasonable compromise on the republican side would be >> i really think the only pathway that i could possibly see a very, very modest, limited to non-defense discretionary-type of spending restriction or a cap i don't think that that would pass on the house republican side maybe i'm wrong, but there's a very, very narrow, narrow path, not just a clean bill. so i think we unfortunately, and i respect secretary yellen's not wanting ing to go there, but i k we need to be playing through the hypotheticals of, what if there is no deal, and what is the least-bad scenario in that case >> you know, we had jake sherman on from punch bowl this morning. he did an interview with jamie dimon, who said that he fears that this time could be different. in fact, that a mistake could get made we've seen the movie, weave seen

the movie, and 11 minutes, 59 seconds, the deal gets done, but what do you think the odds are that a deal doesn't get done >> the first thing is to see if there is a deal, but if there isn't one, among the unattractive options, i think invoking section 4 of the 14th amendment will be the best approach not that it's a good approach. a much better approach is to reach a deal but among the unattractive options, that would be the best option in that, you know, very bad scenario and it would have the silver lining -- >> peter, explain, though, that piece of the amendment to the audience we were talking about larry tribe's op-ed in "the new york times" about this just two days ago. it's a complicated issue, so explain it if you could. >> it basically says that the debt should not questions. and there was only one supreme court case that has spoken to this issue about how to interrupt it, perry versus the

united states in 1935. in that ruling, the supreme court adopted a pretty expansive view of what not questioning the debt means and so it raises the question of whether the debt limit is even constitutional and therefore, if the administration is faced with a choice of prioritization, which i don't think would work, or default, which would be horrendously bad, i think the better option, again, it's not great, but the better option would be to invoke that amendment and say the debt limit does not apply it would have the benefit, if the court's upheld that perspective, of just getting rid of this albatross once and for all, which frankly i think would be a good thing. >> do you believe that this court would rule in favor of that, given just how that court is stacked these days? >> i think, again, it's -- you know, there is a precedent that

this court has in other cases been willing to overrule precedent. but that says something. and again, this is -- i don't know for sure, andrew, which is why this is not a great option a better option is to reach a deal but, you're in a mess if you get past the "x" date. and among the unattractive options, this would be the at least unattractive especially, by the way, we have other crisis going on, including an ongoing regional banking situation. >> which is where i want to go with the conversation next. which is, you've been in the middle of it, really right in the thick of the first republic deal everything else where do you think we really are in this crisis it doesn't seem like it's over yet, even though the market seems to be acting a little bit like it may be >> i don't think it's over yet the deposit base at most of these regional and community banks seems to still be sticky, which is a good thing. but obviously, equity prices are

really volatile. and i think there are things that the government can do including providing a clearer signal of their intent to cover all uninsured, if any other banks fail and including having the s.e.c. finally actually move forward with section 929-x of the dodd/frank legislation, which has to do with disclosure on a monthly basis on short sales they've been dragging their feet in getting this done it would be very helpful, because it looks like a lot of this volatility is associated with short selling there should at least be more transparency on that front and again it's -- it was -- you know, the law was passed more than a decade ago, so i don't know why the s.e.c. has been dragging its feet. >> peter, we've talked a lot about whether the government should guarantee deposits, how the government should guarantee deposits, and what kind of impact that ultimately would have and i think we've come or at least i've come to the conclusion that it would have some impact, but maybe not

completely so far, maybe the short sellers, but if you're watching the stock of one of these companies drop precipitously and you're the treasurer or cfo of the company that has money at a bank, whether you think it's guaranteed or not, you don't have the -- in the old days, you had to stand around, you know, outside the bank, blocks and blocks and blocks, that was -- that almost created a buffer but today, you can do it on the phone. and, you know, we saw what happened with svb and how quick that money moved what do you do about that? >> well, first, while all deposits can move, uninsured deposits are much more flighty or, you know, they're easier to move they're more likely to move. so providing some assurance on the uninsured i think would -- it's not a panacea, but it is a step in the right direction to make sure that you don't see massive deposit flight but fundamentally, there's a longer-term problem here, which

is, most of these community regional banks are going to have trouble raising equity capital for the foreseeable future and there's a broader question about their business models going forward. it raises the question of whether we need to adopt a different approach towards consolidation in the sector. we are likely, one way or another, either because of tighter regulation or just because of the flow of deposits in this direction anyway, we're likely to wind up with more concentration in our banking system, and the question is whether we do that in a, you know, well-thought-out way, or whether we just kind of let it happen, either through more bank failures and larger banks taking them over or through deposit flights to the larger banks, and just kind of pretend -- close our eyes and pretend it's not happening, even though it is >> peter, let me ask you one final question about that. i think we talk talked about ate little last time you were sitting on our step with us. we talked about how sacrilegious it is to talk about the end of community banks, the end of regional banking

but if, in fact, we do lose a part of that piece of our banking system, and i know that's something that's politically not palatable in this country, what would you do to incentivize the bigger banks to actually bank and make loans in some of these smaller communities? >> well, therein is the problem, andrew which is, you know, the community regional banks have the problem of not having scale. they are subject to less-rigorous regulation and supervision, but they are closer to many customers, at least in many parts of the country. and that's -- that's the problem. along with, i mean, the other problem will be, if we wind up with massively concentrated banking in the largest banks, about how well we actually regulate those banks, also don't forget, i mean, there's been a significant decline in the number of bank examiners, for example, at the fdic and so we would wind up with,

you know, highly concentrated risk in a small number of institutions i think that's probably where we're going. >> peter orszag, appreciate it let's hope that maybe that doesn't happen but thanks again >> good to be with you all right. still to come this morning, mor. the 11th analyst revealed this morning. you can see the full list on cn.c/druerbcomispts, the top 50 disrupters as identified by cnbc we'll be right back. g. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created.

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ahead of the opening bell on wall street. that's easy. cnbc the futures as we approach the top of the hour. you can see not triple-digit losses anymore, down about 90. nasdaq also down stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star.

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(funky electronic music) (narrator) invest in. believe in. move in. grow in. build in. thrive in. all in north carolina. ranked america's top state for business. a little more than a half hour before the opening bell sylvia jablonski joining us. thanks for joining us. i'm going to say it this way, sylvia, many eyes, not all eyes. some people have no idea that these guys are meeting -- these leaders and president biden are meeting, but many eyes do know that are you watching this closely to

try to determine investment -- what you need to do, whether you need to -- i don't want to use the word pivot would you pivot based on what's happening today? >> good morning, joe i wouldn't pivot based on what's happening today. i'm in the camp of we can't let this happen, this absolutely will not happen. there will be a sort of deal made, there will be some concessions made i think that ceiling gets raised the bigger issues in the near term -- what i will position around is what the fed does, what the cpi numbers look like in coming days, what the banking system looks like in coming days and how that impacts the future market that's what i'm more interested in i don't think they let this thing default. it would be a global embarrassment. >> we've got retail earnings, too. i'm trying to figure out how business -- i know it's not monolithic, but business seems

kind of okay across large swaths of the economy, even though we've had 500 basis points of interest rate hikes. do we need to take down 2024 earnings -- 2023 estimates low enough now >> i think that earnings are holding up, and 2023 estimates were taken down. in the end they were taken down to lower levels. i think that a lot of the larger corporations out there continue to be. that tells us that the economy and corporate america are still in decent shape, the consumer is in decent shape. trillions of dollars actually came back into the market just because of the tech names. i think what we're seeing is that 2022 was very much a tech recession. we're getting a little bit of a recovery there the future of that recovery depends on rates and what the fed does there's a lot of power there just because you have some initiative and momentum for a bull run with ai and different

technology and things like that, but i think kind of the risk to the market again would be if rate hikes continue -- i think staying at 5% for longer is restrictive enough because we do see softening pmi, we do see a little bit less spending we're not in dire straits here t. market has reacted to what the fed is doing those moves will determine the future of what investors do. >> we move from one thing to another. we had the regional bank thing and that occupied us for about the last six weeks inflation, that's next that's tomorrow. that probably is front and center >> yeah. inflation is front and center. but i think, kind of taking a step back, thinking about the long run, 2023 is going to be a loss in terms of massive double-digit gains and things like that. he said, hawkishly or dovishly, he does say that i think stocks are lower now than they will be a year from

now. that's my take on it still dollar cost average. >> okay. that's great, sylvia, thanks >> thank you have a great day. >> you don't have to say all odds it's never true. it's all eyes. >> all eyes listening to my voice right now. thank you both for being here. >> thanks. >> you're welcome. >> make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ ♪ good tuesday morning everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. we are live from the new york stock exchange carl has the morning off this morning. let's take a look at futures you can see we are set up for what's going to be a lower open, though we seem to be coming back from what i saw a little while ago. really who knows, right? it can all change so quickly our roadmap does start with d.c.'s debt showdown president biden set to meet with congressional leaders today. treasu