the s&p is a little bit higher regional banks have stabilized >> the dow is down eight points. this is very much about what will happen at 2:00 p.m. >> expecting a hike. we'll see what he signals. that's it for "squawk on the street." thank you, dom over to scott wapner and "the halftime report. sara, thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center the countdown to the fed decision just two hours away now another rate hike widely expected, but it's the road ahead that matters more to your money and this market. we discuss and we debate what's likely to happen and what it means in the hour today. bryn talkington, steve weiss, joe terranova and what the market is doing. we're in a holding pattern obviously wanting to hear what the fed does, what jay powell says, the chairman, shortly after that, joe, johnny fine, goldman sachs, was on and said it's the most important fed meeting in a decade that we're

going to be hanging on every single word. we're going to be hanging on the fed chair's tone his eyebrow twitches, we'll be reading into that. >> it is an important press conference after the statement, federal reserve chairman has to acknowledge two things he has to acknowledge that inflation remains sticky and we have a regional banking crisis that has not been contained and needs to be contained and it's going to slow growth dramatically i really think in his words what i'm looking for is, is there validation for the fact that the market is pricing in that the next move would be a cut think about that so after today the next move the market is telling you is a cut, i want to know if we can validate that or not if you go back in history, there have been times where the federal reserve has pivoted dramatically >> he's not going to come out today and tell you we're going

to cut i don't want you to be disappointed >> no, he's not. in december of 2018, that was a hawkish jay powell one month later that was the complete opposite. if you go back to fed policy, even think where we were in august of '07. in august of '07 we raised rates. we were worried about inflation. one month later we were cutting rates. is the market right? is the market right the next move is to cut rates i think that's an important question we're going to get a little bit of insight >> i will bring in our steve liesman, our senior economics reporter, down in d.c. at our bureau before he makes his way over to where it's all going to happen he's not going to be in the room where it happens but will be close enough steve, at 10:00 a.m. this morning you said the following, quote, certainly something is wrong with the regional banking system in this country i heard you say it on our air. it will be strange to me to hear you after 2:00 say certainly something is wrong with the regional banking system in the country but the federal reserve

raised rates anyway. what are the chances of a pause? >> i think there's a chance, scott, and the reason is because i think you can make a very good case what i would call a cause for a pause. i've been talking to people for days now and asking where is the upside to hiking rates today and there's two upsides. i'll tell you the other part of the story which is, one, if you surprise the market then you maybe think there's worse going on than the market believes. the market kind of already believes things are not so great with the regional banks. the other thing, you give your inflation fight a little setback but to me six weeks is not that big of a deal. we've had two ex-fed bank presidents who know a lot about the markets say don't hike our survey 59% saying a hike would be a mistake look at the regional bank stocks they're telling you trouble ahead, not trouble behind.

>> kaplan saying don't do anything let's figure out what the second half looks like. jim lebenthal, let's figure out what this regional banking looks like you're in the don't do anything camp, right? you're in the 59% of our fed survey which says do nothing today in part because of that very issue >> i strongly hold that position i think they will raise. this is a fed that's made it clear they don't want a surprise the market is expecting 25 they're likely to do it. i do think it's a mistake because there are at least three forces right now that are tamping down on this economy one is ever-increasing interest rates. the other is quantitative tightening and now there's banking crisis and the lending dryup that's going along with it there's a lot of forces to do the fed's dirty work joe, i have to address your comment -- >> scott, i wonder if i could interrupt quickly. >> go. >> there's a rule i have which is the fed doesn't surprise the market unless there's a reason

to surprise the market the reason to surprise the market today is the bang that you might get from the regional bank stocks. i've come on the show and told you the fed cares less about stocks than you think the fed cares about, overall stocks. when it comes to regional bank stocks or bank stocks in general, i think the fed cares more because the equity of a bank is part of their capital structure. and if that goes down and keeps going down, it makes the banks more difficult to raise money, raise funds and erodes the capital structure. so i think there's a positive reason here for the fed to surprise today in general, jim is absolutely right. today may be an exception. >> and to that point i would suggest to you, jim, let's play semantics a little bit doing nothing is a surprise, okay -- you say -- doing something that the market doesn't want to happen is a shock, right there's a surprise, an upside surprise, a down side shock. >> yeah.

>> let me be clear i'm taking everything you're giving me and, steve, from your lips to jay powell's ears. i want you both to be right. i think this is a terrible mistake, to tell you the truth with joe, yes, there will be cuts and then if you're jay powell and the fed you will ask yourself what was the point of 25 basis points on top of almost 500 basis points in the last year plus? i just don't see a point to it i don't see an advantage to it i see a strong disadvantage. i see pressure where you can least afford to put pressure which is the deposit funding of banks. >> bryn, you've argued for many months at this point that the market was kind of underestimating what the fed was going to do this whole time. don't fight the fed. you've said it a million times and rightfully so. how do you see it now? is this the last one today if they go? >> well, my narrative has been the fed will overdo it because they overdo it most of the time. if powell raises 25 basis

points, he's going maverick. he is at 9gs we are the fastest pilot in the world. all of a sudden, let's go a little more. let's go a little more what happened when maverick got to 10 gs the fuselage broke up and the wings come off every incremental move here when we have the cracks in the regional banking system, to steven's point, i think he's spot on. we're not seeing deposits coming out of these banks i listened to pac west, to m&t they cannot handle the short sellers just sitting on these names just pushing these stocks down we need to have the health of the regional banking system because it is pencils down i think it's a very, very dicey 9g to 10g. it doesn't seem that much. i think it's exponential he needs to pause or we're going to do what most have done and that's overdo it by the way, if they cut rates,

it's only because there's been some damage done in the economy. why even risk that read the room. things are slowing down. it's pencils down at the regional banks which, as we all know, are just, like, the grease on the economy we need to have strong lending nothing to do with the fed we haven't talked about the nonsense of the debt ceiling >> right, right, right >> so much for the market just to be anxious about and so i think pause, wait, read up -- read the room, please, for once. >> the room, weiss, is three bank failures since march. you've got the view from milken. it's nice to have you with us. what's your view here, less than two hours away now, steve? >> talking to a lot of people out here obviously, spending time with ceos getting a sense of what they're thinking about the economy. on sunday i was in a room with 2 trillion family office assets

and you couldn't find anybody who is bullish, and that's for good reason. now the bulls will say, well, that's great everyone is bearish. let's buy the market that would be the ultimate mistake. in terms of the fed, i don't think it matters the die is cast. they do 25 or so it doesn't really matter. in terms of bank stocks, frankly, the banks will be able to raise more capital with lower prices however, that's not the issue, to steve's point i'm not trying to parse what he's said, it's a run on other banks. so the banks are in trouble. that's clear we heard jamie dimon say, hey, this phase in the bank crisis is over the initial reaction, no, this phase is over. you have issues with commercial real estate. the building in san francisco is selling for a fraction of what it was worth a year ago, is not

the only one that will crash in terms of value so, look, what jim said -- the only thing i agree with what jim said, the fed has three levers and they're ruining the economy or weakening the economy exactly, jim, that's what they want to do that's why you don't want to be long stocks right now because they will get their way. now what i tell you there's one fed meeting where i feel good about buying into it, it's this one. if the fed goes 25 bips the market expects it. if the fed happens to pause, the market will take off at which point it will rally for a few days and then i would sell it anything the fed does off script in terms of a tightening cycle means that things are worse than my friend jim, the bull, thinks. if you don't want to own it, earnings will come down, prices will come down >> liesman, i know you have to jet in a couple of minutes i want to finish with you before you do that. you know the way the fed chair

speaks, the kinds of -- the words and the language and the tone, et cetera. let's assume that they do what the market expects today and hikes by 25 basis points do you think if they do that knowing that there is perhaps dissent in the room -- there's certainly dissent close to the room from others as we've documented, do you think he would go as far as to imply that's it? will he make it somewhat clear it's the last one? >> it's a good question, scott, and i have to give you my own view on this my own view on this is you look at a bunch of rules that the fed uses to figure out how high to go, the fed may have to do more work than this where it's going to be at the end of the day. my argument for today the fed shouldn't do what it has to do eventually today because of the banking problem to see how much additional tightening comes from

credit tightening and credit conditions i think the chairman is going to maybe take that tack which is to say, look, we don't know what the future holds if there's additional resolutions, additional tightening of credit standards this can have an effect and we may want to figure it out. may take that one people are calling one for the road and have that drink and then say i'm giving it up for now so i think that's probably the way he does it he says, you know what, maybe talked a lot about tightening credit standards at the last meeting. it's one of the things that makes me think that powell, the chair himself, may be more on the dovish side of things and has a hawkish committee out there. i was surprised at how definitive the other members of the committee have been over the period about talking about a rate hike, and it wasn't clear to me that's where powell was. and you're right, scott, there could be a couple dissents today. remember, powell works to keep

dissents at a minimum, so that could have an effect on what happens today. and it's interesting, scott, it's exactly the question you asked me that led me to this idea maybe the fed could pause which is how do i sit there at 2:00 and say this makes sense, and it won't make sense to me. >> and i'll talk to you after it all goes down during "closing bell." to this idea of one more for the road, you never know that you've had too many until you've had too many, right? let's see how that all kind of plays into it. steve, do what you have to do. we'll see you in a little bit. that's steve liesman back to you, joe, pause -- do nothing today, the market goes up >> yes >> 25 and imply that's it -- >> market goes up, yes >> you're not worried about a sell on the news of we're done >> i'm worried about a sell on the news two conditions. number one, far more hawkish doesn't infer that a pause is coming and in the press

conference if he does not correctly answer the question what is the plan are you working with the fdic? are you working with treasury? are you formulating a plan for further regional bank stress what is the plan he has to effectively answer that question. otherwise i think the market is going to respond negatively. >> you own the kre, you own the regional bank etf. i don't care how big the position is. you own it >> and the reason i own it, bought it after silicon valley bank, there is room for a relief rally here if it is done >> that's what we thought after jamie dimon came in with first republic which you, by the way, took a flyer on. >> i did that's unequivocally true. let's put it into perspective because i bought it on the monday after silicon valley bank, i sold it the friday of the same week. down 10% not happy about that

when i saw the deposits -- and we were with david faber when we broke the news -- the deposits the next day didn't bowie the stock, that's it i'm out. kre, there's room for a relief rally. i said this to you last week look, we are going to have a pullback a lot of, oh, my god, going back down to the lows that discussion was in the air what i found in my investing lifetime is being breathless is usually not the right move it is a small position which means i can add to it and can also take it off what i'm looking for is does the fed do what joe just said. does the fed either not pause or pause and make it clear that they're done if they do another 25 basis points and they're hawkish, that trade has to come out. that has to come out it shows to your last point, joe, if they raise and they're hawkish that they just don't know what's going on >> bryn, i want to play a little bit -- >> scott >> hold on, weiss. i'll come to you i want to play on this liesman

idea that maybe you get a surprise today, and the surprise is nothing, that they actually do nothing, when the market had all but convinced itself that 25 was going to happen. if they do nothing, is that unequivocally bullish for the market which felt a little wobbly of late >> it's aware of actually what's happening and the potential for further stress i read this weekend the 118-page michael barr head of supervision for the fed, the review on silicon valley bank and there was such egregious missteps all along the way, this wasn't hard to figure out. and so i think the market, to j joe's point would absolutely rally. the fed understands these long and variable lags. we actually have a crisis that's been duct taped over i think the market agrees that

we have the potential major issue with these regional banks if the stock prices keep going down because that becomes self-fulfilling and so i agree with steve they are probably looking at the equity of the regional banks and if they pause i do think we get a rally because we have an understanding that they don't want to push us off the precipice. we don't want to go back to 2008, 2009 when everyone was questioning the banks. we need to have these 4,300 or 4,200 regional banks around. i think it's a positive not to raise rates. >> weiss >> so think about the message. think about what jim is saying, and think about what you're saying what you're saying is things are much worse than we believe with the stock prices, and in terms of the bank fundamentals and that's why the fed is not going to raise rates yeah, you could focus on the top

line as i said before, you'll see a knee jerk rally off of that, but then take a look underneath. take a look at the embedded message and that is, hey, investing public, you don't know what's going on. you don't know what we're seeing there are more inept bank managers -- >> that's not right. the investing public -- >> it is right >> the investing public is see what we see. see what we see. don't close your eyes to the issue with the banks >> hold on, hold on. >> we see it in front of our faces with the regional banks. we're not missing anything we just don't want them to be missing something driving the car blind. >> okay. so if anybody on the set there or bryn thinks they're a better bank examiner than the fed, that it's the investing public leading the fed, you raise your hand, including you, scott i would say no i would say -- >> really --

so the regulator of the banks -- the same regulator out in silicon valley, the head of the san francisco fed, was so on the case that svb blew up in her face blew up in her face. they're on the case. >> pitch a resume for their job, scott. >> i obviously don't but to suggest that they're the last word on everything i think is misguided. >> you know what, they are the last word. they may be the wrong word but they are the last word, so that's what you have to pay attention to if they think things are bad, that's what you have to focus on and maybe the reality will come out differently in six or nine months but there will be a lot of pain in between you can fight the fed. what you're saying says fight the fed because i know better. they know better de facto. >> the bond market is fighting the fed. >> steve, do you think they've handled this well, the banking

crisis do you think they have a plan? do you think that even if we get a regional bank stock rally today it's not going to immediately fail within a couple of days? i don't see exactly where the effectiveness has been in policy responding >> joe, i said that. that's why jim's trade makes absolutely zero sense being long and waiting for a relief rally now you're under water -- >> there's a little more to it than that, steve. >> that's what you said. if the fed pauses -- >> weiss finish and then jim >> jim, hold on. if the fed pauses, your statement is implicitly and explicitly is because they don't want to damage the banks more. well, guess what, is that positive fade the rally >> steve, thank you. your point is clear. let me make my point clearer because it's more than a relief rally and i've said this multiple times there's a tug of war going on with the regional banks between

what's impacting earnings, higher funding costs and regulatory costs and the fact that their prices have come down now meaningfully below book va value. a decline from the height of the crisis which actually helps their balance sheet. so it's this tug of war between earnings and book value. i bought the kre after silicon valley bank when the damage had been done. so it's not just what the fed is doing. to the fed and to your point they're the last word and they're the gospel written in the sky, i completely disagree i will echo what joe said and will give you the episodes of star wars as written by the fed. go back to 2018. we're a long way from the neutral rate no, you aren't, as joe pointed out, they're cutting rates then back to we're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates to we're going to let inflation run hot to it's transitory and i'm sure i've lost a couple of episodes in there. the idea this fed knows what they're doing, it's stupid

they have shown time and time again they don't know what they're doing. the evidence on that statement is prolific. >> okay, jim, so -- >> hurry up, weiss go ahead >> if you don't believe they know what they're doing and they're going to be too aggressive, you definitely don't want to own stocks let me ask you this question, what was the book value of first republic or silicon valley before they went belly up? it was trading below book value. they haven't adjusted book value yet. one more point one more point, jim. >> didn't you say this was the time to buy in scott, did he say that >> i said there would be a rally and i would fade the rally is what i said. i did it last night with josh friedman i believe you know him, scott. >> canyon. >> one of the top investors in the world. >> you're in an echo chamber

>> it is -- you don't even know what i'm going to say, jim, as usual, and you won't understand it after i say it but let me try anyway, it is an unusually great time to invest in credit with the right credit people because the banks are frozen so what they're seeing now is just unbelievable opportunities that's the best place to make money. >> you're right. i don't understand what you're saying because every breath you take you change your viewpoint honestly, steve. >> i'm so right all the time it kills me >> your words. it's a terrible time, your words, to be long up the kazoo and not 60 seconds later you say this is the one fed meeting to buy into which is it? which is it? >> jim, jim, i don't know why you're so challenging a time with time frames i said buy it if you want to on this fed meeting, it will rally and then sell it what don't you get >> all right let's do this. let's take a break

>> why is it time-out time? >> i think we need one i didn't even get to oil you got all the other things we're going to talk about that we have a six handle, 68 i think the last print was on oil as i saw it straight ahead we have committee moves as well. we have your setup for the other big event this week. apple. it's only tomorrow stocksigr. 'rba itw hhewee ckn o. that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see,

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we saw the dow still modestly in the red. everything else is in the grown right now. steve weiss, we're just in the middle of a feisty debate over what to do in this market. and yet you bought uber. you bought uber. >> i did >> the stock is up a lot, right? why are you buying it up a lot >> well, i bought it before the earnings it was a small position. it's had a great move and it's been on my shopping list i want to get involved in it i barely own any stocks as you see from my disclosures. i like monopolies and uber has put a lot of the yellow cabs out of business. trying hard without even trying.

lyft is trying to put themselves out of business. number two with the layoffs you'll have a labor force as well it lines up pretty nicely and the ceo has done an amazing job. so monopoly, more labor to drive their cars it adds up there are stocks that will do well unh, humana. not up today but over the last week phenomenal moves. i think you find places. >> susquehanna upgrade uber. remember, 45 ipo price we have to get back to the water mark of 45 they think they will have another solid quarter and a guide. you bought more cvs. >> i did it's down today but they have some extra costs from the

acquisitions it's a very high-quality franchise. almost 10% per annum buying down debt the market is off 2.5% i'm buying more at eight times earnings i think this will stand me in very good stead in the years to come bryn, i want to hit what's happening in oil today 68.76. down another 4% today. how do you look at this in energy equities? >> this is a march 10 redo energy stocks and regional banks are hyper correlated right now as the weakness in the regional banks are the grease in the u.s. economy, people are speculating this means a hard landing because the regional banks will be pencils down. you sell oil from a financial trade i totally get it

the reality is like march 10th that was a good place to add energy exposure which i did. people are missing, number one, the biden administration, i think, drained another $2 million out of the spr we have opec cuts. we're going into the summer season of driving plus i will say on the asia and china reopen, domestic flights are back at prepandemic levels, that doesn't drive oil. it's the international flights that are well below that 2019 level. you will see more oil needed from china energy catches a bid but right now i get it the framework is hard landing. you sell energy so i understand it and so i still stick by this is going to be a great year to add to the positions if you

don't have it you can sell calls, collect the dividend. i get the short-term pain. i think a lot of this is overblown. don't extrapolate to the next 12 to 18 months >> market is too long. the market is too long energy. it's clear to me on the rebalance. sellers of three equity names devon, kinder morgan and pioneer began to reduce significant overweight towards energy equities >> you did that in the rebalance. other funds have 25% exposure to energy equities. that needs to come down. i think, in fact, that's what's going on just this week alone energy equities are down nearly 7% and it's a classic example of a sector and positioning that has gone way too far to one side of the boat and it has to be balanced out

bertha coombs has the headlines for us thank you very much. here is your cnbc news update this hour. u.s. officials are responding to russian claims of ukrainian drone attack on the kremlin. secretary of state antony blinken says the u.s., quote, can't in any way validate the russian accusations. that he would take anything from the kremlin with, quote, a very large shaker of salt ukrainian president zelenskyy addressed the incident saying his nation did not attack putin and only fights on ukrainian territory. iran has seized another oil tanker in the strait of hormuz, the second in less than a week the ship was captured among increasing tensions in the region middle eastern nation has become increasingly more threatening to maritime traffic in the wake of tensions related to iran's nuclear program. and in texas democratic representative colin allred has launched a bid for the u.s.

senate the former nfl linebacker and civil rights lawyer is targeting the seat held by republican ted cruz allred will be fighting an uphill battle as texas has not elected a democrat since 1994. scott, back to you >> bertha coombs, thank you. the regional banking turmoil is skihang out "halftime" is back after this. (vo) verizon small business days are back. april 27th through may 3rd. get a free tech check and special offers. like a free 5g phone. get started today with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify.

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welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm bob pisani bank etfs are in focus the regional etf is down 32% on the heels of what started as a concern over depositor flight and higher deposit costs and is morphing into a concern about credit particularly in commercial real estate where is the money flowing let's talk to reggie brown, one of the world's largest market makers and reggie heads up that etf trading position the s&p 500 financially is down, what, 5% this year but the bank etf, a basket of stocks, money center and regional banks, down 24%. regional bank etfs down 32%. sort this out. where is the money going and coming from? >> well, look, first thanks for having me. largely if you look at the etf

sector, the regional banks a lot of problems. stocks are on fire and etfs represent that move. i think a lot of flows are going into value people buying into the regional players i think they have an opportunity to make a return so we're seeing a lot of advisers buy the regional banks in particular on a value play. so you talk about kre down and other etfs i think largely about the mind-set that there is value in the marketplace and we're seeing etfs buyers across the line not withstanding the 15% to 20% moves in some of the individual names. >> a big stomach for a value player to buy in here. the regional bank share prices are dropping fast but recently noticeable inflows into the regional bank etf. why is that happening? are there short sellers? why are people putting what looks like more money into the bank etf at a time prices are

dropping >> that's a great observation. zion bank, the 30 day option is at 100 or so if you look at the etfs themselves, if you look at the etfs and how they're moving, they are short sellers we're creating shares for short sellers to go out, borrow to sell short so the shares outstanding is not a good indicator because short interest is rising >> that's a problem. we'll have more on flows into and out of financial etfs coming up at 1:10 reggie will be joined by kevin simpson of capital wealth planning that's etfedge.cnbc.com. back to you. >> bob, thank you. bob pisani the setup into apple earnings tomorrow.

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and welcome back i'm eamon javers in washington breaking news regarding jamie dimon. a source familiar with the situation tells me that jamie dimon will be deposed in the ongoing jeffrey epstein suit on may 26 and possibly may 27 the date had been a little bit in flux as they try to schedule this what we know from the courts so far is that in this case jamie dimon will be deposed by the lawyers who are suing jpmorgan alleging that jpmorgan allowed jeffrey epstein to continue his nefarious activities as a client of the bank. jamie dimon was told to set aside two days for the deposition on the first day the plaintiffs will depos mr. dimon for a combined five hours and jeff staley, the former top executive at jpmorgan, will have the

opportunity to depose jamie dimon for two hours, and there's the possibility now that will overflow into a second day of depositions, so that would be the 26th and 27th, a friday and a saturday in new york city in may, scott all eyes focus because the key question is what did jamie dimon know about the compliance office concerns about keeping jeffrey epstein as a client as early as 2010, scott. >> eamon javers, thank you for the update there let's talk some apple. "overtime" tomorrow, one of the big events this week getting a lot of play tomorrow you recently added it back in the rebalance. what do we think now >> resiliency is the word you have to think of in this earnings report. what you effectively need to hear from apple is we understand revenue growth is going to slow. we understand they're probably going to be conservative in their outlook.

will there be resiliency in the contraction? will that contraction only be around 5%? i think you take comfort in the fact there will be that resiliency 800 million plus the instilled base for iphones there is the services revenue that will remain strong off of that you fall back on the free cash flow generation of nearly $100 billion which equates to a buyback of effectively around $90 billion. i think that buffers the decline, so to speak, if up get any disappointment tomorrow and let's remember this is viewed as a safe haven in the market >> trying to cover your bases, you sold some calls on it. >> the stock is up 30% i think that the returns for the year end the expectation is that revenues will decline by 4%, earnings down 6%. they're not going to come out

with 10% or 15% earnings growth. to joe's point they do a lot of financial engineering with stock buybacks i think it's a wonderful company. we all use it. i sold the august 180s i collected about $5.30. i think it will not trade up there or through there through august i can collect premium while i wait it is a great company but i do think 30% needs to be respected and i do not think they're going to really beat earnings on the positive side just because it doesn't seem to be the ingredients for the iphone sales right now. >> jimmy >> bryn and joan e listed the positives to own the stock i own it at 3% i'm not going to own it at 6%. the reason is simply look at the multiple 28 times this year's earnings, 26 next time it's priced in there >> you're short apple then >> i hate that discussion.

i'm long 3%, yes >> is this set up for a fall >> i don't think it's set up for a fall, scott, but i don't think it's set up to rapidly grow. as bryn said, up 31% year to date there's a lot in that rally. >> i know there were a lot in the other mega cap stocks, too, and then you saw what happened with their earnings last week. a couple guests i had on "closing bell" suggested this thing is set up for a fall, a disappointment >> it's hard to see the fall you make a good point about the comparables. i think it will do fine through the rest of the year if the stock is up 7%, 8% through the rest of the year, people will think that's a good year i think you'll get better growth >> i don't think you will be surprised if there is a disappointment or a negative reaction tomorrow. where does it go from there and there's enough of a case to be made from the capital allocation and strong fundamentals the down side would be protected. up next, mike santoli is with us with his "midday word.

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the big fed decision of course mike santoli our senior markets commentators is with us for his midday word. maybe there's a little more of a debate behind-the-scenes than we wanted to believe because the market had pretty much said, okay, it's going to be 25. >> that's right. >> and it's nothing. >> it's still saying we should look for dissenting votes. we plight get some of those, presumably a dissent if we get the 25 basis point hike would be on the side of pausing fy looked at the vital signs that would convey to the fed we're at a critical point where another quarter point is going to actually tip things into crisis mode in the banking system i'm not seeing that. >> even with the regionals >> the stock prices doing what they're doing, absolutely. if i look at mortgage backed security spreads, they're elevated and been elevated the banks are selling and not buying longer term the spreads were higher in october of last year and they

hiked again in early november. so treasury market volatility, it's, again, elevated but nothing compared to where it was most of last year when they were hiking every meeting i think it's still arguably a close call if inflation were where it is, clearly and if you hadn't massaged the market expect tagsz to the point we priced it in i'm wondering how vociferous powell will be talking the market off the rate projections. that's history and probabilities. it's not about a real forecast of rate cuts it's about when they stop, when they pause, it's like five months on average until the first cut. that's just the way the market goes, right. they've gone too far or the economy responds or whatever or we have the downside risk to the economy or financial conditions and then it's an emergency. >> right we'll see you a little bit later. mike santoli by the way, don't miss our cnbc special programming of berkshire hathaway's shareholder meeting this saturday. mike, along with becky quick,

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today on positive results for its alzheimer's drug there's a stock up 6%, which you own. >> i own it through joe t., which i'm glad - >> right, right, right. >> yeah. right. because he bias the stuff that i wouldn't, so it's good diversification as well. i still think health care, which is recession resistant, not recession proof, is the place to be this year if you're worried about the economy, which i am. so they have pricing power little announced while they didn't have a great quarter sthy raised guidance. you should look at biogen, their drug is going to do well in the market that's a great stock that has bounced along but seems to be picking up momentum along the way. you can own either one. >> why do you have lily? >> remarkable momentum lily is trading like a biotech at this point. fantastic news, obviously, this

morning. stock is a little bit rich approaching 60 on a valuation basis. i'm going to once again mention merck which trades under 20, and is approaching 120 right now both of these names are names to own. >> all right we'll do final trades right after this quick break at t-mobile, your business will save over $1000.

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you're going to hear first from jeffrey gundlach, the doubleline ceo, a cnbc exclusive. the tradition conditions we can't wait for that liz ann saunders will be with us we've got you covered right after this whole thing goes down find out what fed does and the chair says and where the market goes from here that's going to be another big deal too brin, final trade. >> sticking with health care i like xbi at 83 i'm selling the 90 september calls, collecting about $3.25. >> okay. >> steve weiss, what do you got? >> so i spent time with darren woods the other night. extraordinarily impressive it's on my buy list and i think brin is right, getting very close to inflection point in oil. the saudis need 75 to $80 a barrel just to meet their social obligations in the kingdom they want no unrest. i think there's a floor on it. >> i don't know. i just saw a report that messi

was in talks for $400 million a year to play in the saudi league. >> oracle, nice growth at a reasonable price. >> joey. >> charts and mastercard look fantastic. >> i will see you on "closing bell." countdown to the fed continues right now on "the exchange." >> thank you very much hi, i'm kelly evans and tyler mathisen welcome to the fed edition of "the exchange," we're live in washington, d.c., as we enter the countdown. it comes as the regional banks rebound for now, but we've been here before and the fallout from the bank turmoil seems far from over what fed decides today could seal the degree of pain yet to come. >> and we have all the angles covered from the stock market to the bond market to the economy, and how rising interest rates will impact consumers like