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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  May 2, 2023 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. the federal reserve kicks off the policy meeting today and they shift back to policy playbook. there is more than rate risk wall street adding a debt ceiling deadline to the wall of worry. and a.i. strikes twice in two big ways one of which is sending a stock down nearly 30% in the pre-market the name to watch. and tracking the fallout
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from the jpmorgan chase winning bid for first republic bank. and later, bracing for the streaming silence as hollywood goes on strike it is tuesday, may 2nd, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kickoff the hour with the stock futures after a modestly lower session for wall street yesterday. you see this morning is muted. s&p and dow is lower nasdaq is higher we are also checking the bond market we want to look at the yields in the bond market. look at the 10-year treasury that is moving higher than yesterday. the 2-year treasury is moving higher we are keeping in mind the yield
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above 4% that is something to continue to watch. s als-- also the inverted yield curve. this morning, we are paying attention to the short end of the curve. take a look here the one-month moving higher. the two-month moving 26 basis points higher. something we continue to watch the shortened of the curve more on that in a moment we are watching the energy markets, specifically oil. below $80 a barrel flat this morning at wti brent crude is below $80. natural gas is moving hi highehigh higher .76%. time for a check on the markets in europe with joumanna bercetche who is tracking the action overseas. good morning >> frank, a lot of breaking
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news let me bring you the headline inflation print which has come in for april in line with estimates little increase from the month before at 6.9% more crucially, the core inflation number excluding food and energy and alcohol is 5% this is significant because finally it has shown other inflation in europe has peaked banks have started to tighten credit as demand wanes bank lending has slowed in march. this boosts the case for 25 basis point hike, not 50 at the meeting on thursday. another company that we are watching closely today in europe is bp. profit at the company rose to $5 billion in the first quarter l beating expectations
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it is still committed to using 60% of the surplus cash to buyback stock this year. you see the stock is down 4.5% on the flip side, in the banking space, hsbc posting a profit of $12.9 billion in the first quarter and 200% increase on last year and above estimates. the bank announced the first quarterly dividend at 10 cents a share, the first since 2019. the reaction in the stock is positive today up 5% frank. >> joumanna bercetche is live in our london newsroom. thank you. let's get a check on the top corporate stories, including a deadline day for america silvana henao is here with that story and others >> frank, good morning that is right. president biden reportedly calling the top four congressional leaders late yesterday for a may 9th emergency meeting at the white house to discuss how to avert a u.s. default this after treasury secretary
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janet yellen warned that the u.s. could hit the borrowing limit by as early as june 1st. that is earlier than expected. if congress does not act in time meanwhile, morgan stanley is cutting 3,000 more jobs by the end of the june as wall street is looking to outlast the deal making senior managers are looking to eliminate 5% of staff and customer advisers in the wealth management morgan stanley employs 82,000 people. and vice media is filing for bankruptcy this week the company whose assets include vice news and motherboard and refinery 29 is valued at $5.7 billion at the peak, but struggled to maintain growth frank, reports show it is possible that it can find a buyer to avoid chapter 11. >> something to watch.
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a popular media platform changing media we'll sighee you later on. time to turn our attention to the federal reserve the central bank kicking off the policy meeting today. they are expected to approve a 25 point rate hike stemming from the downfall of first republic and battle against inflation, the burning question is now is the fed moving closer to the end of the rate cycle the next guest says investors are front running the fed. mark avallone is here with me from potomac wealth advisers >> good morning. >> the vix is at the lowest level so far in 2023, mark you are saying that low level of volatility expectation is
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bringing back the gerf trade -- garth trade >> investors in the era have a lot of information at the finger tips it is not like 20 years ago when you dig through the massive amounts of newspaper reports to understand what was under the surface. now you just turn on cnbc and you hear people say stocks turn. everybody is thinking we are near the end they are flooding into the interest rate sensitive stocks you see what happened to the nasdaq this year we feel investors front running. the fear is replaced by greed. we they tech stocks and nasdaq trade is good for the long term which is over valued >> nasdaq up 17% year to date. we are one day away from the fed decision
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looking at the latest numbers. 92% chance of a .25% rate hike give us some information what sectors are overweight? >> the fed and interest rates have been the headline driver for the market we all know that along with inflation. underneath the surface, it is earnings and earnings drive long-term stock prices i think what we have seen with the regional banks and some of the headlines this morning about regional banks and banking sector under score it will be difficult for traditional banks to do well in the market that means to us as asset allocators and people who look at asset flows, that non-bank financials are the beneficiary if you are going to avoid banks, where do you go? we think they go to insurance
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companies. people who are not lending to the consumer to be sensitive to the slowdown that is why we like the insurance sector over the banking sector. >> we have to let you go, mark debt ceiling talks big deal not a big deal >> short term, it is a big deal. it gets headlines. we will hear trash talking from washington, d.c. in the end, they will come to a deal and the markets look behind it >> mark avallone, thank you. >> good to be here. more to come here on "worldwide exchange," and the one word investors need to know today. and the 11th hour debt limit deal could impact your market and money. we have ed mills of raymond james coming up with the analysis. and a.i. strikes twice sending the stock down more than 30% in pre-market. your mystery chart coming up. and the jpmorgan chase deal for first republic and what it
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means for the banking sector and those who failed to bm a nng bid. a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us no i est, the fees... it was just take, take, take. so i broke up with bad banking and moved to sofi checking and savings. now i get higher interest, pay no account fees, and get my paycheck two days early. get up to 4.20% apy, pay no account fees, and up to $2m in fdic insurance. download the sofi app and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are following a developing story. president biden calling the top four congressional leaders late yesterday for a may 9th
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emergency meeting at the white house to discuss how to avert a u.s. debt default. this after treasury secretary janet yellen warned this a letter that the u.s. could hit the borrowing limit as early as june 1st time may not be on our side with negotiations take a look at this. the house is off this week as of this morning, has 12 working days on the calendar for the month of may the senate just 15 before deadline day democrats are insisting on a quote clean debt limit increase with no conditions republicans are looking to pass a bill with $12 billion of savings in the next decades. joining me is ed mills at raymond james. ed, great to have you here >> great to see you, frank. >> ed, what is more likely i don't know if you are a betting man. what is more likely? a short-term extension or actual
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default? >> frank, that is a great question we focused on 2011 and drawdown as the negotiations got really close to the brink i like to remind folks about 2021 we got really close and didn't have a deal. then we punted for two months. then we came up with a deal. i think that this is much sooner than washington expected this is absolutely a lot sooner than the market expected we have an emergency meeting a week from today. there is not a lot of time you add on senate procedure and there is only time to do this once in the senate not to do it twice when we look at this, i would say a very short-term extension is the most likely near term to allow there to continue to be time to have negotiations on the larger points of some of the fiscal reform and budget cuts
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and maybe energy permitting reforms that republicans want trying to put default off the table because this is really a very condensed timetable >> a lot of investors are breathing a sigh of relief last week, goldman put out a note that the debt ceiling would be reached in july you mentioned this meeting on may 9th with congressional leaders in the white house what is at stake what is on the table and what is at stake, particularly things that impact investors? the inflation reduction act. >> i think the biden position of there is only one way here of clean limit increase is probably not the most likely any more
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republicans, bypas passing that bill last week, were able to establish a negotiations position all eyes are on mitch mcconnell. we with wnh w wil we with wl focus on him because what he allows to occur in the senate is likely the final bill. looking at provision, i talk to a lot of investors who are very concerned about the clean energy provisions in the inflation reduction act that are removed in the house version of the bill i don't think that gets in the final bill, but yesterday, you had senator manchin talking about new guardrails on how that money is spent i think the guardrails are more likely now than before we will also see defense cuts or other budget cuts potentially added to this bill i think those will be false positive >> so, a fewhot button issues
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here i want to mention esg. esg consideration in the inflation reduction act will also be on the table >> they are in the house bill. i don't think the inflation reduction act will get repealed at all when you look at the statements from senator manchin yesterday saying the way in which the biden administration is implementing this, that needs to be changed we shouldn't allow these tax credits to go to europe or asia. they have to really be about the united states. this is especially important for the electric vehicle market. those type of provisions, i think, are part of the political o off-ramp to allow republicans to support this >> ed mills. short-term extension is the most likely outcome thank you. >> thank you ahead on "worldwide exchange," your big money movers and mgm betting big on the
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shares of nxp rising after estimates topped for the last quarter and issued stronger revenue guidance for the current quarter. the company ceo says they are optimistic of the second half of the year as they get through the cyclical down turn in the consumer exposed business. you see shares are up 4.75%. now to the bad of arista network. the cloud network company said the biggest growth driver could slow down in the months ahead despite posting quarterly results and outlook that both top wall street estimates. ceo telling the company growth in the u.s. was primarily due to cloud tightened spending, but expect moderation in customer spending now for the ugly shares of chegg plunging over chatgpt is hurting the homework
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service. shares are down 44% this morning. this signal that a.i. is up ending companies and how it does business chegg does business from subscription and says revenue is in danger if students see a.i. is an alternative to paying and chatgpt is impacting customer growth since march of this year. shares down 44% in the pre-market we are watching shares of mgm slipping in the pre-market on the back of strong first quarter results. contessa brewer is here with the breakdown of the stock and sector glad to have the maven of macau. >> i love it i'll have them put that on my banner a lot to like about the earnings report macau is just busting through expectations mgm reporting first quarter revenue nearly 50% higher than estimate the all important adjusted
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property ebita more than double estimate. it is 12% off the levels pre-pandemic on the call, the ceo pointed out that mgm made a jump in market share in macao and he said he expects to keep that share because when the macao government awarded the concession renewal, it allowed mgm a third more gaming tables the company says it is also seeing a boost from the investment in attracting foreign tourists from asia to macao. vegas has been booming domestic operation in the vegas strip with a record first quarter result for mgm
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increased profit margin driven by revenue per room. that is up 30% over last year. bookings are up every month year over year. all the way through november regional casinos are steady. mgm extending the international footprint. leo vegas is acquiring push gaming and focusing on a new casino resort in osaka, japan. he sees an upside to the estimate while valuations are undemanding. we may see a reaction in the share price. we got gross gaming revenue from macao as a whole we heard betmgm reporting the earnings some news was anticipated. >> we have a big week of earnings with gaming
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give us a sense of what you expect >> we will get another view on the strip. it may just reinforce. caesars is disciplined on the cost margins analysts want to know how they are doing on the digital side. they are in fourth place in sports betting we should hear from penn it made a deal with barstool the market leader is fanduel which reports tomorrow peter jackson will join me for an interview after the earnings call we want to hear what they are doing about market share and how they are investing that money and if they see the customer acquisition cost pulling back. >> contessa, thank you
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end of the rate hiking cycle that decision coming up. first republic fallout digging through the rubble of the second largest bank failure in u.s. history. the questions over the banking system as a whole. and tv and movie writers set to go on strike for the first time in 15 years as the streaming boom presents a hurdle the for hollywood. it is tuesday, may 2nd you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's pick up the half hour with the check on the u.s. stock futures. we have seen the dow take a bit of a move to the down turn down 50 points at this point the s&p is fractionally higher.
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and we have the wall of worry which includes the likely rate hike by the fed reserve and the banking sector which has been pushed to the limit we are watching the bond market this morning the yield ticking higher as we get closer to the fed decision the 10-year treasury move higher this morning we are seeing the 2-year treasury move higher something we continue to watch we are seeing more movement on the short end of the bond curve. let's check on the top stories and including the white house looking to add new names to the line up with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, the biden administration is reportedly expected to nominate federal reserve governor philip jefferson as the new voice chair. jefferson has been on the fed board for under a year and would fill the position vacated by lael brainard who left to become the president's chief economic adviser. the white house is reportedly
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looking to tap economist adriana kugler to fill the vacancy on the board. kugler would be the central bank first ever latina governor ibm's ceo expects the tech company to slow or pause hiring for thousands of jobs that could be done by a.i speaking with bloomberg, the ceo says 7,800 positions could be handled by a.i. in back office the head count reduction could include thought replacing workers who leave the company. and thousands of film and tv writers are set to go on strike starting later today the writers guild of america calling for members to hit the picket line after failing to reach a contract deal with studios. the writers have argued they have suffered financially as streaming has boomed in part due
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to shorter seasons and smaller residual payments. the last writers strike 15 years ago lasted 100 days and cost the california economy $2 billion, frank. >> i did not realize it seems like our favorite shows not on huge impact. silvana, thank you. turning back to the top story. the fed kicking off the two-day policy meeting today it is expected to raise rates for the tenth time economists believe jay powell will hint the fed is inching closer to a pause, but won't send a signal they are looking at the last hike this year the fed watch tool is pricing in nearly unanimous odds of .25% hike tomorrow. that puts the rate at 5.1% a full 5% higher than in march of last year let's bring in ashish shah
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great to have you on >> good morning, frank >> a lot of people are trying to position ahead of the potential rate hike. it is obviously almost 100% odds with the cme fed watch tool in the upper 90s of that hike a lot of people are looking at short-term bonds you believe the 10-year treasury is the place to be before that decision explain why. >> we have a lot of uncertainty. we think this is a great opportunity as we see the back up in yields to be adding longer term bonds into the portfolio. the reason is it will be the longer term bonds that offset losses in your stocks if there is economic uncertainty in the economy slowing down >> that is one thing you are looking at and you are looking at international investing you gave me things to look at specifically with europe
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european equities is out performing u.s. equities why does europe have more room to run >> europe is lagging about six-to-nine months behind the u.s. in terms of the covid rec recovery when you combine that with valuations which are 20% to 30% cheaper, you end up with room to run here >> one other thing we are looking at is the threat of the debt ceiling default the issues of the banking sector and in your mind why isn't the fed paying attention to this why is there still a likelihood of a .25 hike? >> in the meantime, the strength in the u.s. economy which means the fed wants the economy to slow down and that's why they will be hiking in the coming meeting. that uncertainty can hit from out of the blue. i think the debt ceiling is going to be the next big test to the market one of the reasons why you want
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to have your overall allocation back to the strategic allocation for most people, that means adding bonds back into the portfolio. >> what about equities as we look to a possible rate hike decision tomorrow, where are you putting money to work with equities as far as sectors and specifically names >> i think you want to start with parts of the market that haven't seen the strength of the rally that the s&p has i start with small and midcap. they have been lagging they are priced for a decent discount a 20% discount to long-term average in the s&p within that, one of the things we like do is instead of trying to pick what the economy is going to do, go for secular growers. one of the secular areas of growth is security whether in the real world or cyber world. two names we like are alegean
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automatic bonds or automatic doors or windows you know, in the cyber world, we like cyber arc >> something to watch. security is a big issue in the real world and digital world ashish shah, thank you >> thanks, frank. turning to jpmorgan chase and the deal to buy first republic and more than $90 million in deposits. the deal appearing to be a boom for the balance sheet. a one-time gain of $2.6 billion and $500 million in profit annually excluding the one-time cost. questions are circling around the deal and the jpmorgan chase motives and what it means for the banks bidding on first
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republic joining me now is banking reporter hugh son. hugh, good morning what's the latest? >> reporter: good morning, frank. it is great to be with you a day after this story had broken out, we have time to have the dust settle a little bit we know the playing field. jpmorgan chase, which i will remind you, has close to $4 trillion in assets it was going up against banks in the auction that it dominated in size some of the other bidders in the final weekend round of auction were pnc that was well known. fifth-third and citizens these are well below $1 trillion in assets. it is like me going up against warren buffett in an auction sure, it is possible i could win, but not likely. you know, you have a situation here where i think some of the examinations of whether or not
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there was a level playing field in banking today should be topics of discussion one thing i like to point out is we reported this last week there was a plan among first republic advisers to remain independent. that involved convincing the big banks especially to, you know, to purchase bonds off the balance sheets essentially help heal first republic's balance sheet and extend the lifeline to raise equity and re-capitalize jpmorgan chase and the other big banks could not be convinced to do this. they waited a few days and it goes into receivership as they expected because regulators had been hinting this the last few weeks. goes into receivership jpmorgan chase wins the auction against other banks which it dwarves the size of the other banks it was up against.
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it now gains $2.5 billion in accounting right off the bat it gains $500 million of annual net income also, it gains a wealth franchise $300 billion of assets which it coveted there is some material here to look back and examine. why was it conducted differently than the auctions for silicon valley bank and signature which went to small banks? >> it seems like a net win for jpmorgan chase i want to ask about the rest of the sector the kre down 3% this week. despite what jamie dimon said yesterday, saying the crisis is effectively over are there still more concerns about regional banks which could be the next regional bank to fail >> reporter: frank, a wide variance of opinions on this
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there are banks with losses on the balance sheets there is a difference of opinion if they have time to heal over the next few quarters or if there will be pressure i think it is helpful to remind yourself what instigated the fatal runs on the banks last month. it was excess of deposits. some of the -- it was an exodus of depositdeposits since the quarter ended, funds have come back in and they are able to convince customers to return some of the cash. i would say as long as you have a situation which deposits remain stable or gaining, you will not have the instigating factor we should watch this this is a dynamic situation. that's how i look at it, frank. >> hugh son, great reporting thank you. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," improving road ahead for uber our next guest is bullish on the ride share stock as it gears up
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identical twins bethany and stephanie both struggled with cpap for their sleep apnea. but stephanie got inspire, an implanted device that works inside the body. there's no reason to keep struggling. inspire. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet where we look at the upgrades and downgrades by firms you know first up is citi dowgrading the rating from buy to neutral for coinbase.
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it says there were too many unknowns with regulatory pressures that are facing coinbase shares are down 1.5% in the pre-market morgan stanley upgrading the rating from dell from equal weight to overweight it says dell is the most preferred pc maker with the market forming a bottom. we are watching shares of uber as the company geears up for first quarter earnings wall street looks for continued improvement in the ride sharing giant mobility business along with impact that inflation has had on the delivery segment. results coming as the lyft laid off 26% of the staff last month following a c-suite shakeup and is struggling to keep up with uber in market share and consumer preference within the market joining me to discuss is tom white.
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great to you have here >> thanks. good morning >> tom, what are you expecting with the report coming up in an hour >> look, i think as far as the first quarter results, we are expecting a strong quarter the company reported the fourth quarter results in february. we got a good look at the company at that point. the quarter will be good all eyes on the guidance an. you know, we are starting to hear in other parts of the coverage universe how rising inflation and macro pressures are starting to impact the consumer a bit more. i think, you know, the recent activity at lyft will raise investor questions of a little bit of insurance ccreased insurs ty -- increased intensity. >> we'll get to lyft in a
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moment which part of uber's business is impacted by a slowdown we hear of the shift from goods to services. >> you know, i think it is really -- if we start to see impact on uber business, it will be broad based this resilience in services spending that you touched on certainly will help uber you could see signs of folks trading down is how i describe it maybe not taking the uber xl if it is a shorter ride, opt to take the subway where eight months ago, they would take uber food delivery, people resisting the fees and that will serve to accelerate the normalization of the business delivery business had a go-go
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period in the pandemic i think rising inflation and macro pressure might accelerate that normalization. >> let's talk about the competitive landscape. uber has 75% of the market lyft has 25% give or take that shifts season to season lyft made a lot of changes to the company. including layoffs and reorganization does that have the potential to change the competitive landscape at all >> we'll see uber has benefitted from a very sanguine dynamic in u.s. ride share the last several quarters. that is playing to uber strengths. they have been eating into market share by competitors. lyft is going to make big changes here you referenced the job cuts. those jobs will fund lower
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investment prices for riders and inn s-- incentives for drivers. you know, it is a little bit too early to say that uber is going to see an impact right now it is possible it could factor that into the second quarter guidance or outlook for the year we will be interested to see what uber does and if it makes an impact. uber has momentum in ride share, but the multiproduct platform. that is the key long-term thing. it is not just ride share or delivery for restaurants it is retail, grocery, alcohol delivery all of these things. >> tom white, thank you very much watch for uber earnings in an hour following those results, don't miss the first on cnbc
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interview with dara khosharahara we have sylvia jablonski with the latest on the fed policy meeting. and we are celebrating asian american and pacific islander month here on cnbc here is christine chang. >> it has been rewarding to build together with my founder we know female founders are unique in the industry it has been an honor to leverage heritage and be able to story tell how skin care should be my advice for other aapi founders would be to take up space. don't minimize your achievements don't be afraid to ask for more
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welcome back time for the wex wrap-up we begin with president biden reportedly calling the top four congressional leaders late yesterday for a may 9th meeting at the white house to discuss how to avert a u.s. default. this after janet yellen warned the u.s. could hit the borrowing limit on june 1st. and morgan stanley is cutting more jobs by the end of june with the recent drop in deal making. and bank of australia raising rates by 25 points shares of chegg plunging on the warning that chatgpt is threatening the homework services the company says revenue is in
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danger if students see chat bots as an alternative. it is not just chegg p pearson is down 8% it will buy back $2 billion of stock after first quarter results that topped estimates for hsbc bank will pay quarterly dividends for the first time since 2019. and lawmakers are urging regulators to allow shein to potential forced labor practices ahead of the u.s. ipo report. we have the monthly job option and turnover survey out at 10:00 a.m. as the march factory orders we have pfizer and uber reporting today and then the fed begins the two-day policy
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meeting with the decision tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. followed by the jay powell's news conference with that in mind, let's bring in sylillylvia jablonski with m. >> good to be here. >> we ask how you describe the trading day ahead. what is the "wex word of the day. >> conjectural there is an a lot of decisions made based on fear and uncertainty and guessing about what the fed will do and whether or not we will have a hard landing or earnings will survive to the upside or down side a lot of investors are sitting on their hands >> we have a lot of big earnings pfizer and uber. you are looking at apple which
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is the biggest of the tech earnings give us a sense where you are putting money today and what do you expect >> in terms of apple, i think apple will have a good quarter i suspect they will. i think iphone revenue will hold up i think they will tell us they had some sense of recovery from the services numbers i like apple i tend to buy on the dip if jay powell comes out and speaks in a hawkish way, that stock is coming back as a market leader i actually end up picking up apple the and dollar cost average and hold for years i think they will participate. apple tv and devices you have potential revenue from ad spend they will play a role in a.i there is so much they do strong balance sheets. revenue generating company tech is actually doing better than feared this earnings season so far >> you are keeping your eye on tech you gave us a few etfs which you
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believe is an apple beat why are you bullish on these >> i think, you know, it is is the classic why etf against the single stock if apple performs well, it boosts other companies apple has a 20% position or higher in a lot of the etfs. i think from that, a lot of the other names like microsoft and google will with benefit. i think apple could potentially move to semiconductor stocks they have a role in a.i. and you think of machine learning and i look to those names. >> sylvia, great to have you on. one more quick check of the futures before we go futures are flat nasdaq is fractionally higher. s&p and dow lower. something to watch as we
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continue the trading day that is it for "worldwide exchange." we have "squawk box" coming up next thanks for watching. su my old b next to no interest, the fees... it was just take, take, take. so i broke up with bad banking and moved to sofi checking and savings. now i get higher interest, pay no account fees, and get my paycheck two days early. get up to 4.20% apy, pay no account fees, and up to $2m in fdic insurance. download the sofi app and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right.
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good morning the fed kicking off that two-day policy meeting getting ready to hike interest rates to the highest level we have seen in 16 years. we will get quarterly reports from pfizer, uber and marriott the hollywood writers guild on strike after failing to agree on the new contract overnight. good news. no late night tv shows we'll tell you which tv shows will be affected. two big a.i. stories education company stock plunging to the smaller cap as students
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turn to chatgpt for homework help ibm will slow hiring for roles that could be replaced by a.i. it is tuesday, may 2nd, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you look at what has been happening with the u.s. equities, dow in the red down 63 points s&p is down 6.5. nasdaq is indicated higher up 10 this comes after the dow inched lower in yesterday's session down 46 points the s&p was essentially flat
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it was off

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