bezos may come back as ceo are you hearing that >> so far, no. i'm not hearing that i think he has time to show he can take the company where it needs to go. i don't think folks are clamoring for bezos to come back >> michael, thank you for joining us >> michael speaks his mind love it. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. >> the major averages adding more losses after wednesday's big sell-off we're well off the lows of the session the last couple of hours. this is the make or break hour for your money welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli sara eisen is at the world economic forum in davos, switzer land the s&p down 11 points one-third of 1%. we were down to the 3900 level we bounced up a little bit the nasdaq an outperformer for much of the day. about if line with the overall tape at the moment

ten-year treasury yield has stopped going down, trying to find support around the 3.4% level. coming up today on the show, celebrated investment banker ken moelis joins us from davos last year, he said a recession wasn't coming. we'll get his outlook and his thoughts on mna, activision and much more. we're getting some back of the 4% two-week gain of the s&p this week. it had given back roughly half of it. we firmed up in the indexes, when we got comments that she wasn't in as much of a hurry to have big rate hikes. more balanced view there you see where the pullback has settled out. 3900 on the s&p. you want to draw a trend line from october, that gives you an area where bulls would like to see hold at the louse of the day, near a short-term, like four-week average. the market has found a little of

support right here still underneath the downtrend line right there a lot of rotation below the surface, still, as we see some weakness across the board. but staples have actually done a little better today after losses yesterday. here's a ten-year note yield as i said, 3.4%. it seems like it will be somewhat important people looking at the chart saying it might be oversold. look at the floor that might be created around the 3.4 level we'll see if that means anything for risk assets to continue to stay supported while yields, perhaps, take a pause, at least, in their decline right there and people fixated on the yield curve and what that might mean let's get to lael brainard speaking at chicago. saying with recent moderation, inflation remains too high and rates need to stay high. that's essentially the party line for a while meanwhile, jpmorgan ceo, jamie diamond gave his rates during a

cnbc interview in davos. >> i think rates will go higher than 5%. there's a lot of underlying inflation that won't go away so quick. >> joining us now is warren pies, co-founder of 314 research weighing in on a macro, warren, and how it plays into how markets are set up for this year our investors correct in feeling as if a fed pause is a potential all-clear for this market? >> well, great being here. thanks for having me i think that's what history tells us history tells us when the fed pauses, it's this goldilocks period across assets stocks have rallied across every fed pause except for 2000. that has key similarities for today. bonds rallied also during every fed pause going back to 1978 i think it makes sense to get revved up for it but you got to put this whole move in context.

i think that we might be front running a little prematurely here >> you think the equity market has gotten ahead of itself in raising the probability that, first of all, going to get a pause, and that the economy can escape too much damage >> yeah. i think that historically, number one, when we looked at fed pauses in our outlook for 2023, what we found is that every time you see the fed funds rate and the two-year yield invert, and that means that the two-year yield is below the fed funds rate, sustainably, that has ushered in a fed pause now, i think it's historically we're in the neighborhood where you would expect a pause but the other side of the coin is that, you know, the financial conditions have been targeted by the fed. and this is not abnormal usually when you go into a pause, you see markets down by 5% or 10%. as the market tries to front run the pause, it becomes a

reflective issue, where they then push back the pause you know, the fed is targeting conditions -- financial conditions is a fancy way of saying stock prices, credit spreads. stock prices lead credit spreads. so, ultimately, everyone of these rallies, in my view, is self-defeating you're going to get weakness before the fed pauses. otherwise, they're going to push rates higher and hang out higher for longer, even if the inflation data is rapidly decelerating, which is what we think is going to happen >> this is a little bit of the, i guess, the dilemma that some investors see out there. with the s&p at 4000 at the recent highs, it seemed as if the fed wouldn't have been too happy to see that, even if they inflation almost won where does the mme more attractive if you have this fix that we're in where the fed is going to push back against it >> yeah. we've been outlining for our clients a range for a while now.

w between 3600 and 4000. this is a rough range. the market can shoot above that 4000 it probably will do that number of technical indicators failed last year and they keep sucking people in. at the top of the range, markets start thinking about growth and earnings and that's going to cap the rally. also, it will bring the fed into play because of what we're talking about financial conditions now, you get a sell-off to 3600. what's going to provide support is we can continue to say, for months, we see a path to 2% inflation in the next, you know, six or nine months here. it was out of consensus three months ago, and it is becoming more consensus but the bottom line is you will continue to have disinflation support. that 3600 to 4000, call it a rough range, is what we trade in here for a bit, until we get more clarity on the economy. what we see is ultimately,

there's going to be a recession. it's going to happen more on the back half of this year i think consensus is we're going to walk into 2023, with weakness in the fist prst part of the car and the economy, you have to account for the stimulus and cash injected into the economy this is a slower moving cycle than a lot of people had anticipated. >> you're expecting in the second half of the year, is when maybe the weakness in the economy might become more evident and that ends up being another gut-check for stocks >> absolutely. let's think about it the traditional fed pause last seven months so, like, if they were to pause on schedule, which would have been december of last -- of 2022, in the fed fund rate inverted, if the fed paused, they would pause for seven months the recession doesn't come until a couple few months after that pause is done. seven-month pause is over. that's because of the cadence of

a fedarc cycle the funds are mixed and the pause and it's a goldilocks period that we talk about. optimism is off the charts maybe we have a soft landing if you go back and read fed minutes. quickly, that hope turns into reality that the recession is upon us, the fed starts cutting rates, they are classically behind the curve the stock market never bottoms before the recession starts. in that classic cycle. what does that tell us it tells us that we should expect the recession probably in the second half of this next -- this year. and the ultimate lows are somewhere in 2023. >> yep >> that's if the patterns hold and the recession is coming up thank you very much. thank you. after the break, ken moelis joins us from davos. we hear his call on whether

we'll see a recession this year. and why activist investing is coming you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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despite the stock market's fall over the past year, along with growing recession fears, some leaders we heard from in davos this week, sound cautcautious ly optimist ic sara talked to ke moelis and he's somewhat worried. >> last time we were here in may, you were optimistic people were worried about the economy and inflation and fed hikes.

and you said, i don't see a recession. so far, you're right is that still how you feel >> well, it's interesting. hard to call even back then, with 3.5% unemployment, how do you call it a recession? when you say i'm optimistic, i thought the fed would be very serious. and would raise rates beyond what people thought. i still think too much optimism here - >> you're not in the pivot camp or the pause camp? >> it might slow down slightly but we're in the eye of the hurricane right now. there's a lot of good news and p people are extrapolating that. the fed has made a statement they want to break unemployment. they want to take unemployment for 3.5 up i think it will be harder than they think the economy, companies like my own, we worked very hard for these workforces and it's not the economy of the 1970s when you have manufacture

and brick and mortar those companies are their people they are their culture they spend a lot of money to keep everybody together through covid. i tell you, me personally and people i talk to, we're not going to give it up that easy. we're not going to mass lay people off >> you're not? some of your competitor investment banks, goldman, morgan, we're seeing layoffs there. >> larger workforces do several different things >> you're not laying off people? >> no. we'll take a lot of pain to keep the talent >> you're cutting compensation >> sure. >> by how much >> our people are in the business, they are their own businesses they know how their businesses are doing. they go up and down with their business to actually take a mass layoff, most american companies, are defined by the people nowadays it's a digital economy your people are your workforce that's why i think it will be hard to break the unemployment rate it will be harder than people think. >> what they want to break is the inflation rate and there's signs that is

working. >> 6.5% is different than 8% but 6.5% is not going to be acceptable and unemployment is staying. the fed says they will look at unemployment what i think they have to look at is basic fiscal policy. energy policy. a lot of this is self-inflicted from the west, i think, absurd energy policy. >> you blame the biden administration for that? >> i think -- no western europe is probably -- if we're shooting ourself in the foot, western europe is committing suicide >> you blame merkel and biden? >> i think the west has gotten their priorities wrong by the way, it's interesting that fed chairman, in a speech about three weeks ago, specifically said i'm not going to be a climate regulator. >> he did. >> i think these are -- by the way, vanguard pulled out of net zero black rock has come out and said, we've only voted for a quarter of climate initiatives

because they're not economic i think you are starting to see people realize the pressure on mi m misallocation -- you're looking at the economy >> i don't know if you're allowed to say this in davos out loud you said the pendulum swung too far towards sustainability >> in the u.k. right now, it is double the price to turn on your dishwasher it is 100% increase to fill your bathtub. last i looked, there's no employee involved in that. you could fire everybody if the dishwasher -- >> isn't that putin's fault? >> no. well, i think the war is -- obviously, the war is on top of all this but if you started ten years ago to be self-sufficient on the energy, you can't blame it on the war. i think you're seeing all of the institutions it was interesting to me that jay powell said i'm not a climate regulator.

i don't think he speaks randomly >> no. political pressure >> he is starting to say, if you're a bank, i am not going to -- people wanted the fed to regulate fossil fuel ending. i think he is saying, no you can allocate capital to this and not be hurt by it. >> it's interesting you're maintaining your optimism, relative optimism on the economy, given you run an investment bank that is tied to the capital markets, which have been very weak >> i think rates are going to be tough. my business has been tough we're a leading indicator. a leading indicator. one thing, it shuts down because it's a big purchase. i think mna shuts down >> is 2023 a better year than '22? >> '23 will be rough on the economy. financial markets are looking at '24. >> it will get better? >> it will get better ahead of the economy, as people -- as investors look to the future >> are you already seeing signs of recovery?

in mna? >> there's a lot of discussion, but no i don't see activity completing. the financial markets are open -- the last two or three weeks have seen some life. >> debt financing. >> yeah. i do think we're in the eye of the storm here i don't think it's going to be better for a long time by the way, i think it will lead -- what will happen in this year, you will see a significant increase in activism >> already we've seen that. >> they're going to try to hold on to base business, their employees. there's going to be market pressure from rates, energy, and people holding on to their culture. and activism -- activists are going to try to take advantage of that. that will be a fight between boards trying to protect the business they built and activists trying to take advantage of this opportunity. >> that's good for your business >> well, it's something we do, yeah but it's -- you know, i think it will be a tough time for people. >> disney, peltz giving us a

taste of that? >> that's a one and done >> is that good for shareholders >> no. i think right now is a time when you have to look over the horizon. and it's going to be -- activists have used the esg -- i call it a can opener, to get votes. i think it's ironic because the activists are the least diverse. they have the worst governance you look at activist governance, it's one man, one vote the least diverse group of people and i think the environmental impact is in the worst 1% of the world on a per person basis. think use that issue to get into the passive votes. and they put these -- they're putting companies in a very difficult position >> so, rise of activism. what about ipos? it was a dead year >> yeah. >> are we having another dead year >> it won't start off good i think just the valuations aren't there, people raised

money at high values it will take a while before you will do an ipo that will deliver value. what will happen, people will start revising the market. investors will make money. the second one will happen somebody will make money and then it will start again ipos have that cycle >> what about spaks -- speaking of things that are not happening. you shut down a piece of your business on the fact that spax dried up >> a big issue, like an ipo. and the ipo market went away it's interesting - >> it was considered more speculative. >> what is interesting to me, is there's 600 spax the investment for the last year has been getting back the money plus the treasury interest rate. the loser is the spack

entrepreneur >> those that held on. >> you're given two choices. put your money into treasury bills. 600 will redeem and it will get the treasury rate back probably the best investment of 2022, to get your treasury bills back come of those went in and some didn't work. >> a lot lost money. >> many were deemed by the way >> did that come back, when yo . does spac come back? >> in a different format, they will some will have adjustments through the s.e.c. there's going be adjustments >> it will be safer? >> it will be safe if you chose not to go into the ipo, you could choose. and -- >> there's a sense they didn't do as much due diligence as a traditional ipo. >> i don't know. i don't know how much diligence the average investor base gets

on an ipo. they get a road show and have to put their order in i don't know if it is different. it will be restructured. but the idea of putting your money into treasury and the downside, if you don't like the deal, you get the money back and get a choice to go in. it's not easy. and most of the spacs, the investors that went in are getting the money back right now. i wish i had all my money in treasury bills the last year the spac entrepreneurs got crushed. those are people who choose to take the risk. >> bankruptcies. do you expect to see more of that >> yes there's many companies, even quality companies, that set up capitalization based on -- >> party city, right >> yeah. >> bed, bath & beyond. >> some have operational difficulties there's some companies that just financed six, seven-times leverage and there might not be a five, six, seven-times market. you might have companies that are hitting the business plan

that find it difficult to access refinancing credit >> and there's crypto, which is keeping you -- you and others that are doing restructuring busy you're taking on the genesis bankruptcy what have you learned about the viability of these crypto companies? >> i'm not on the transaction team i do know that it was an unregulated world. there was lots of money put in you talk about no due diligence. no due diligence in a lot of the places and i think warren buffett said it best. find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out >> a lot of naked companies this year >> the tide went a long way out. and people didn't have the right risk management controls are finding out what that means. >> u.s. corporate bankruptcies fell to a 13-year low last year, according to s&p global market

intelligence let's check the markets. the dow is down 135. backed off just a little bit in the last half hour saw the s&p 500 down .3% wall street firms are waying in on the prospect of a u.s. debt default as the country officially hits its borrowing limit. we'll tell you about the stern warnings for washington and the potential impact on your money that's next. as we head to a break, check out some of the surge tickers on cnbc.com ten-year yield in the top spot, followed by tesla, the s&p 500, procter & gamble and the dow jones industrial averages.

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the treasury department is taking extraordinary measures to meet its debt obligations after hitting its 31.4 t$31.4 trillion borrowing limit. in a letter to leaders, janet yellen said those tools can continue until early june.

after they expire, congress will need to act to prevent default wells fargo saying in a note today, in the event of a last-minute agreement, financial markets could be roiled like they were in the summer of 2011. moodys writing, we anticipate an agreement will be reached very late, or incremental financial, leading to flare-ups in market vola volatility few matters in washington have such destructive economic capability 2011 fight triggered credit downgrade. and 2011 house gop had a strong speaker and a 24-member margin james gorman gave his view at davos. >> there's certain things you don't play with fire i'm hopeful that congress will be sensible about this the u.s. is -- it is the backstop to the global economy don't mess with it

>> joining us now for more is cnbc's elan moye for as much as we should be anticipating market volatility as the observers suggest, have we learned it's more bark than bite or should it be more worrisome >> this is a slow-moving train wreck. and the analysts are right saying the resolution is not likely to come until we get down to the wire. part of the problem is house republicans made a deal with speaker kevin mccarthy in order to get him that job they would take votes on fiscal austerity measures they want to cut spending, to rein in what they see is wasteful government spending and deliver that to constituents they have to show they're making progress what they do that is railing about the debt limit and passing bills in the house that will end up going nowhere in the senate that takes up a lot of time that

lawmakers could be using to reach a constructive compromise on the debt limit. so, that's going to take up all of the oxygen in washington. and we won't be able to get to that final resolution until much later in the year. >> it will work against a cleaner, timely agreement here it's too much to ask for if there's any specificity on material cuts that republicans might be looking for here the real math says, unless you're going after defense, social security, medicare, med medicaid, the big categories, it's not going to prevent you from needing to borrow more over time >> yeah. that's the problem that republicans are in they don't want to say they are cutting medicare and social security if you preserve that, what else are you going to take out? that's some of the debate that we're going see republicans play out over the next few months and i think there's also a division within the republican party right now that there's a group of pragmatic republicans that are growing increasingly

vocal, saying no way, no how, are we going to play fire with the debt limit this is not a thing that we should be linking to the mfiscal austerity in washington. the contention between the hard-line conservatives and pragmatic republicans is going to be a dynamic area that investors need to watch over the next few months. >> i'm sure we will be thanks so much appreciate it. wall street is buzzing about ftx's new ceo, suggesting the failed crypto exchange could make a comeback. details on that when "closing bell" returns.

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what is wall street buzzing about today? a possible ftx comeback. new ceo john ray is saying in his first public interview since taking the job, he is open to the idea of restarting operations telling "the wall street journal," everything is on the table. if there's a path forward on that, we'll not only explore that, but do it. kate rooney joins us more with more on the prospect hey, kate. >> hi, mike. we saw sam bankman-fried comment on this. in a tweet, he is in palo alto on house arrest. he responded saying, i'm glad mr. ray is finally paying lip

service to turning the exchange back on after months of squashing sufficient efforts he says, i'm waiting for him to admit that ftx is solvent and give customers their money back. interesting response there he's had a couple blog posts talking about this and claiming that ftx u.s. was solvent. john ray meanwhile, saying, we don't need to hear from you, by the way. it's not helpful call it misinformation there's a huge question if anybody would trust ftx, even with new leadership to use it again. but traders that you talk to in crypto, say the software was pretty good. and there are some people who can see a path forward as a way to bring revenue back and say it was one of the better infrastructure platforms and ways to trade crypto out there probably too soon to tell if anybody is willing to put their money back there >> right presuma presumably, yes, the platform, the technology can live on, in

some form. has it seemed as if the crypto market has suffered in terms of liquidity in ftx's absence but a lot of money was put in motion over the last few months. >> ftx has had the motion that people have pulled money out of exchanges. the market has not recovered in terms of liquidity a lot of people have moved money offline for safekeeping. and they trust across the board, if it's ftx or any global exchange at this point that's one issue with bitcoin in general. the trading depth isn't there in a way. it was the lending market the ftt token, pat of the balance sheet. part of the bankruptcy proceedings. about $5 billion worth that token surged about 30% on the news that ftx might reopen

you're seeing pockets of risk up 32% today. >> absolutely, yes maybe they can help the longer-term cause. thank you, kate rooney meta has been a big winner so far in 2023. but a big venture capitalist and early backer warns the stock could be under pressure the next 12 months. details coming up. all across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. so we're hard at work, helping them achieve financial freedom. we're providing greater access to investing, with low-cost options to help maximize savings. from the plains to the coasts, we help americans invest for their future. and help communities thrive.

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let's check out our stealth mover. goodyear is not having a good

day. deutsche bank is warning investors to tread lightly because a weaker industry volumes and the threat of losing market share to imported brands. the stock had been gaining traction recently but is now flat over the last two months. you see it down 4% today netflix, meanwhile, lower ahead of its earnings after the bell up next, the top analyst tells us what he is expecting from the streaming giant. that story, plus meta rallying ilrsherough day for home bude wn we take you inside "the market zone." ♪ this feels so right... ♪

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we're in the closing bell market zone. victoria fernandez is here to break down the crucial moments of the day julia boorstein on meta. and tim on netflix welcome, everyone. we're in this market moment here where we are obviously consolidating a couple weeks worth of gains now, everybody is fixated on the growth picture and if the fed is going to be able to century stick the landing and make it a soft one, after we more or less put the inflation story aside for the moment how does the risk/reward look to you so far this year >> yeah. i think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves if we're saying we're going to have a soft landing here. i think we've seen that over the last couple of days. we did a shift where bad news was good news. it allowed the fed to take a little slower rate hike path but lately, bad news is bad news again because i think some of that recession fear has come off the table for the market in general. at crossmark we think we're

going to have a mild recession around the middle of the year. we think the fed is going to continue on the rate hike path and get up towards the 5% fed funds rate i think we have to be very careful looking at the sentiment in the market, making sure that we don't have some quick whipsaw actions going on we've seen that the last couple days i think we have to be careful going forward that we position ourselves with a balanced port portfolio. >> right no big outsized bets not adding to mo much risk in te short term home builders, underperforming the broader market after december housing starts fell to the lowest level since july. building permits, falling by 1.6% last month. despite the ongoing housing weakness, oppenheimer saying it's better to be early than late on the home builder stocks. outperform ratings on pulte and toll brothers.

diane olick joins us with more >> going forward, it says we are getting closer to a bottom what is interesting is what we saw in the home builders sentiment number yet we're expecting to see a drop. but we also saw a sizable jump in builder sentiment, with them reporting seeing more buyer traffic. and more current sales and potentially more sales in the future because of lower mortgage rates. they're seeing people come into the showrooms, kicking the tire, starting to think about that we saw that in the mortgage applications yet when we saw applications to buy a home rise much more than expected. lower mortgage rates, down a full preercentage point from la october are starting to play in, factor into this i think you see that in the builders >> oppenheimer saying all the rates have to do is get steady themselves and not go up much more for the market to, perhaps, stabilize. we'll see how that goes, diana meantime, vernado cutting

its dividend by 40% the latest company to do so. so green, in december. vornado pointed to weakness as one of the reasons behind the move victoria, obviously, real estate investment trusts, they essentially pay out what they earn or what their taxable income is, a high percentage is. it shows what's happening with the fundamentals how should you treat the stocks. coming into this week, vornado had a 9% stated yield but that's coming down. >> you're right, mike. look, we shouldn't be surprise that we saw dividend cuts. the cash available has diminished tremendously. they talk about interest rates moving higher. the macro environment they're in there's competition in regards to subleasing. a lot of people are not moving employees back into office space. they're subleasing that. there's competition. when you look at a company like

vornado, in high-end office buildings, new york, san francisco, chicago, we can expect that they're going to have to see that and this isn't the first time in a year ago we saw them cut the dividend by 20% at that time because of the pan pandemic we'll see some struggles as it comes to the rate market it's one of the areas where it will be a lot of volatility. we have to see the workplace environment strengthen before we see the stocks strengthen, as well >> obviously and the stock has been bumping along the recent lows for some time analysts growing more optimisti on meta. all highlighting the stock as a potential leader in 2023 jpmorgan naming it as a top pick in the online ad space, heading into its fourth quarter results in two weeks going to cost discipline and better-than-expected top line growth early backer, jim breyer sounding more bearish, sitting down with sara in davos earlier.

>> my view is over the next 24 months, there will be a big rebound. but they'll be under a lot of pressure for the next 12 movnths they're not cutting costs fast enough in my humble opinion. >> julia joins us now. that gets us to one of the issues that is under management's control, ha they do at meta on the cost side >> yeah. it's interesting i don't know if you can pull up a 12-month chart here. what's fascinating is if you look at meta shares over the past 12 months, the stock is down about 57% there's been an uptick in the past several months and part of that is the fact that meta announced layoffs. they announced cost-cutting. an they talked about the fact they are focusing on the core businesses, the core apps that generate the ad revenue. want to remind investors, that while they are staying focused on the bread and butter. what is interesting is a lot of the analysts think there's more

room for cost cutting. that's more on that coming in the couple of weeks. >> it's a tricky time in the cycle. people expecting ad budgets to be trimmed back or continue to go down. on the other hand, looks like a relatively cheap stock do we know anything about the market share situation with meta obviously, we're hearing about twitter hemorrhaging ad dollars. maybe not a big number compared to the size of meta. is facebook and its other apps a net winner here? >> well, look. i think twitter is so relatively small compared to meta and to google i think it's just in a different category we have seen that meta and b google, they call the digital duopoly are not working the way they used to their combined share is noted in the past couple weeks. it's interesting to see the rise of the players like amazon

amazon has an advantage because it has so much data around intention, what people want to buy. but while they lose that share to the likes of even apple, which has been investing in its ad business, i do think they have an advantage when it comes to the ad businesses that are lapping the period in which they were struggling with the apple operating system changes that made it harder for them to target ads they have some advantages there. but the real competition here, was never twitter. it was really tiktok that's the app that it forced them to change and innovate with reels. and also, potentially really easing into the ad revenue >> yeah. and part of the case from some of the people on the street, is we got to lapping the tiktok competition moment we'll see if that helps them out down the road. julia, thank you very much netflix, the stock is in the red, ahead of earnings coming after the bell investors are keeping a close eye on the performance of the

company's ad-supported tier. let's bring in tim who has a neutral rating on the stock. a huge comeback in the shares after they really collapsed under a couple of bad earnings and subscriber warnings. what are you most looking for in the current report that is going to tell us whether this bounce has legs >> yeah. we'll get numbers in about eight or ten minutes, right? as always, the investors first focus seems to be on subscribers. the guidance is about 4.5 million sub ads in the quarter that's number one to look for t this will be the last quarter we get a subscriber forecast guidance from netflix. from now on, revenue earnings and cash flow. to that end, it will be important to hear what they say about the advertising tier, which launched in november we're only two months into it. and i've read conflicting reports, even just today, from reputable third party research sources, saying, you know, very different things about what's happening with the ad tier

we did hear back in december they may have fallen short of some of the guarantees on viewership the question will be, will they give us a number as to the number of ads supported subscribers? and in our view, that is most of the people switching from fully paid netflix on to the lower priced ad tier you have to get a large enough base of subscribers before you can really gather all of the ad dollars in that's kind of the middle ground that netflix is in right now i don't know what numbers they will give us but qualitatively, any information they can give us about progress in the ad tier, i think will help determine sentiment on the stock >> bigger picture, you mentioned the focus on revenue, earnings, cash flow. this is a company with 30-times forward earnings, let's call it. not a lot of growth on the bottom line for the current year, 2023 maybe it will pick up down the road is it a fair price at this point? we realize they're the incumbent and people are nervous about

folks canceling streaming services netflix might be the safer play. is the stock a value >> yeah. i think long-term netflix continues to be a net winner it makes -- it invented this category it will remain, i think, above most of the competition. there's rising competition it will be interesting to see what the peers like disney will be reporting in the numbers. they will be talking about less negative operating income in their direct to consumer segments going forward netflix is already at high teens, close to 20% operating margin those guys are losing money. relatively speaking, if they're going to be adding subscribers at a similar or better place than netflix, and if they show improvement in earnings, they might look interesting here at lower valuations than netflix. it's not a knock on netflix. they're so far ahead of the rest

of the curve, in terms of subscriber numbers and terms of the operating earnings they will remain in good position but it's a more expensive stock than the traditional media names that embraced direct to consumer and might get toward operating earnings, positive performance that will be helpful to them >> yeah. sometimes going from bad to less bad is better for a stock than just being good already. we'll see how it goes in a few minutes, tim thanks very much victoria, your thoughts on netflix after this run >> yeah. at crossmark we don't hold netflix in our long equity portfolios for some of the things you mentioned etf growth looks flat. there's no competition it's a cash-intensive model that they have. but where you can use netflix, and what we do, we hold it in our covered call strategy because of the volatility around this name.

you can generate income off of the peoplremium in selling call. in the long/short strategy, we're short netflix in that strategy you can do some plays besides just holding it in a long-only portfolio. we think that's the way you can position yourselves before this earning. >> it is always jumpy and runs in streaks we'll see how that goes. and quickly, victoria, your thoughts on fixed income bonds are popular at the moment. yields have come in quite a bit. is there still value >> as someone who manages fixed income portfolios, i'm glad to see people interested in fixed income we had yields fall of late the bank of japan, not making the second move people thought they would make. you have inflation expectations starting to come down. and inflation fears that people are coming in. there's a lot of elements pushing yields down. i think we're over bought at this point in time

i think we see yields move back up as the fed continues its hike, with the fed funds going towards 5% the yields will go up. inflation may have peaked but it doesn't mean we're done with the rising inflation you'll see rents move a little higher you're seeing wages. the percentage change may be less but i think there's still some issues there let's keep an eye on yields moving higher. >> too soon to declare victory on inflation there victoria, thanks so much we head in the close, less than a minute to go, the s&p 500 on track to decline 0.3%. it's slipped in the last few minutes. it's hovering around the 3900 level mentioned earlier. around this 20-day moving average level, as well energy is having a bounce today. wti crude up 1%. fixed income stabilizing the volatility index has gone on to a higher range.

we're now in the low 20s pretty steadily at this point. also, the new -- more new highs than louse ws on the nasdaq now, about 14 months past the peak of the nasdaq the dow, down 260 as we head into the closing bell on this thursday that's going to do it for "closing bell. now, to "overtime" with scott walker thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "overtime. y we just heard the bells. it's about to get real we're seconds away from the first earnings report of the season netflix about to hit the tape. we're going to get to the numbers and the stock move as it happens. the stakes could not be higher given that stock's big bounceback and the nasdaq's nice jump to start 2023, our julia boorstin is standing by. we'll go to her in a few