cnbc 7:00 p.m. eastern time. sit business on the ballot jackets on the body. we've got a bunch of special guests are you going with a blue shirt or white shirt tonight >> i'm going to think about that >> with the jacket, white looks pretty good, the contrast. but i'm letting you know i'm going to wear one if you want to distinguish yourself make sure you join us tomorrow -- no join us tonight. you can't even get that right. "squawk on the street" is next good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street". bulls will try to extend the bounce to a third day despite disappointments from lyft, take 2, trip adviser. we will watch election day results with disney. control of congress at stake

futures modestly higher as investors await the results and the tea leaves for future policy shifts >> plus, despite trimming guidance, dupont shares moving ahead of the open. demand remains strong. >> and high-fliers have fallen down sharply on growth concerns. we will hit carvana this morning at some point as well. shares only 97% off high >> let's begin with the markets and midterm elections today. i know you zeroed in on energy policy wells has a pretty good table of best two-year returns for the s&p.

and the best of all worlds is a democratic white house and a republican congress. >> right. i felt what would happen is the president wanted a windfall profit tax it succeeded in europe what you would have is pelosi replaced by mccarthy kevin mccarthy is in the most important oil district in california so you would take that off the table. that tax, by the way, would be between refining level and actual producer level. anyone who felt that was about to happen, as i did, it would replace -- $80 billion was created from the last time we did this so, david, windfall profit tax very much on the agenda. that's taken off the table

by the way, exit polls 530 today. some people think it will be 330. we tonight think they could be kept secret. >> all right but it would be a shock if the democrats didn't lose the house. you're already talking about gridlock, aren't you >> yeah. i'm saying you wanted a group most vulnerable, take the risk off the table. it would be the oils >> don't you think that is played out >> we're on the verge of getting rid of, i think, the endless dump of the spr. >> look -- >> okay. you could say the banks. but one of the things i sense is i think the agency isdigging i its heels. they feel therefore the banks would be better. if anything they doubled down

regulation if the republicans win, forget albe albertson's kroger >> i feel like the midterms and the impact there versus jerome powell and the fed you can't even compare the two when you consider and talk about the impact of the midterms and gridlock, what it's going to mean and some other things >> that was on the table i know you're just trying. >> i'm not trying. i'm succeeding that was a win we will see if there's moves tomorrow >> you think a lot of them have taken place because people are sure -- >> that's a gorgeous suit. >> that's all. i'm just saying -- >> we're on the verge of the election i wanted to give an idea it's not like -- the agencies will not change after tomorrow other than maybe they go double down and get morten neighbors against republicans. the only thing -- >> against the republicans

>> democrats in the agencies are going to go nuts against business >> if the business and republicans are the same thing >> all right say you're a business person and trying to do a deal. an acquisition you have labor problems. you have regulatory problems good luck. if the democrats lose, those agencies double down that's what happens. that's tradition, okay the agencies double down because they're allowed to double down the only way i can find anything that would run up, if you take the windfall profit tax off the table, which is succeeding in europe europe, the oils can go higher cpi is a problem or else powell wouldn't have been so rough and

tumble >> you are talking about taking worst-case scenarios off medicare, drug pricing, windfall tax. >> yes i'm taking the worst off the table. >> b of a wonders if you get a republican sweep, could you see a return to r&d tax breaks something like that. >> you need to see trump running and winning. you're not going to get anything through. that is the point of gridlock. we have this new november 15th announcement from president biden. i think if the sweep you're hinting at happens, you will have a maga -- >> he's most likely to announce that he is going to give it another shot >> so you are thinking dr. oz wins >> -- a week from now. i think the senate is much tighter. could it end up 50/50? i don't know i'm just looking to what done it dids say i'm listening to joe scarborough

on "squawk box" this morning >> better to admit you have no value added. >> there's a look at the senate. more like a 70% chance >> did you vote? >> i voted a few days ago. and the lines were short >> it's called early voting. >> n individual ya got approval for the dumbed down version of the chip >> for two hours i work on something and it is reduced to rubble >> you have an hour of uninterrupted show tonight >> just go ahead didn't even get to take two yet. >> we will get to it we will talk about kohl's, dupont, carvana, levi's. we have so many things to talk

about. >> let's stop talking and start talking. >> bitcoin is another one. they are falling to lows not seen in a couple of weeks. ftx chief responded by saying his exchange is fine and has been the subject of false rumors, jim. solana down 20 is specifically what they are referring to >> the ftt i will say this. the opaque nature of this sam bankman freed is concerning. the decline -- you have, david, remember sam owns alonetta he also owns ftx >> yes >> and we don't really know what's in. there's no reason we should know it's private

>> very opaque not a lot of transparency. he's the most important man in crib ta. at least we have assumed, defaulted to that. >> is very influential $530 million to sell something is not a lot >> there he is that's our video of sam. sbf we like to call him. >> not jpmorgan. >> can we go back over the notion that the opaque nature keeps us, carl, from drawing any conclusion about what's going on, positive or negative >> approximate how concerned are you about it >> extremely >> really? >> extremely concerned extremely concerned. because we have a lot of viewers in these they have been arguably kept up by someone we did a piece the other day how

in lebanon they are using it as actual currency. they have not been adopted they have been failures. david, what's the revelations about the who owns what? >> yeah. well, again, it's unclear. >> does it make you feel better or worse >> worse you want to have as much as possible >> hundreds of millions being drawn from ftx the next day.

>> at this point, it absolutely is this is not three arrows this is the real deal. this is a man who has beenen straoumental in making sure this market works right and the jpmorgan, the analogy is not a factious one >> right >> in this world jpmorgan was the u.s. treasury. >> correct >> but in this world -- do we have video of him? this one man is probably the most important person -- i haven't talked to novogratz. >> that's why we are focused on the stories. he has been quite -- >> transparent >> he comes out. he talks it's not like he's hiding. he's available to us >> who hasn't been available i don't know there's an availability index. i'm not sure about that. i'm saying last night this thing

had a major declean. and i'm just saying if this man -- if this were the stock market, we would only be talking whether this is, dare i say, warren buffett none dare call this a conspiracy >> i mean, what vulnerability is there to external markets outside of crypto? >> actually, i think jay powell is going to wait for this to happen this is the foremost area of speculation. the chairman does not talk about speculation very much. right there, not the stock market, not houses, not autos. but crypto not even wages showing the end of speculation than the potential decline of that complex that we have put in the right corner and it won't be done until that right corner doesn't have that

complex. okay >> we're going to watch it obviously seeing declines this morning. kohl's michelle gas is stepping down. we'll ge but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. ♪♪ levis ♪♪ ♪♪

be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.

goss is leaving kohl's and going to levi's. we have a preliminary guide from columbus >> it's okay it's okay. tom kingsbury will be interim ceo. he took burlington, which had been private, public, and then did a fabulous job everyone knows kingsbury is the key of off price columbus is not off price. but they could certainly have a lot of merchandise now, chip, who has been on "mad money" many times, stepping down is actually quite a shock given the fact that, i don't know, just a month ago he seemed more upset as ever. that is a good job for michelle goss to get. levi's has got a great niche chip has done a great job.

if you ask me what the most challenged group is in the entire market is apparel the only company that is doing really well in apparel, even though i like ralph lauren, is lulu it's a rough business to be in apparel is one of those -- i haven't seen it challenged since the 1990s. they have no power against the chase. none so think about that. pvh. there's stock for you. >> yeah. it doesn't look good it's 18 months it's a transition period takes over as president. you see the bottom of the screen

stepping down december 2nd from kohl's but it will be 18 months before mr. berg is the ceo of levi's. >> there have been activists for kohl's >> forever they have all taken shots at it. the board has been very loyal to michelle goss. i don't know if this was an opportunity she saw or it was time >> you can return things to amazon there and they have sephora. >> the amazon partnership you had early hopes for. >> yeah, i know. but so what. it hasn't meant anything a lot of people tells they would buy. you're up against -- >> there was a point in which it looked like kohl's there might be a bid for it >> what happened >> financing was a key factor to that would you want to own the cup in

such a difficult time as you described. >> when i shop at kohl's, i find there is no differentiating factor none even the private label seems bleh i would rather shop -- are you ready -- walmart this is their time to shine. >> yeah. >> and i think nrs is looking up sixes or so. >> did you see katie, the charts, it's kind of cool. >> expanding her reach >> it's a chart. like david costin from goldman some of the strategy gists are really fun >> they keep life interesting.

>> keep life interesting guys, come on. >> you want to look at the new orleans saints >> no. jonas came out questioning whatever carvana. >> david, we have to go. but the 10 cents i love jonas i was not allowed to do a fireside chat with them. their compliance wouldn't let them >> we'll talk about carvana >> we'll talk about carvana afte be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust mer th . [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investe break℠.

at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. for a solve problems like a genius world. y prtg workday. that helps cfos mak for a changing world.ter. don't go away.y prtg n ñuy

all right. 7 and a half minutes before trading at the new york stock exchange stock is looking higher. >> yes it should be the ceo, excellent ceo is doing an accelerated repurchase. he has a $5 billion pwhbuyback. he did not have to part with money. >> for rogers. that was the news from last week where they were able to terminate that deal given the fact they did not get approval from the chinese, at least in a timely fashion not buying rogers. more cash on hand. >> putting it back to work he had sold -- what i say is cyclical remember, things have come down in this industry >> meanwhile, it's moved more or less with the market it's not a great performer >> it still has cell phone,

which is not well. it has water protection. what i regard as a secular industry and ed is sticking around, man he loves it. the big worry is ed going to say am i done. he is fabulous and i think this is a good story particularly because they are d leveraged. better be lucky than good. the rogers deal was too expensive. the chinese were going to block it. >> we don't know what they would have done. they didn't extend the merger agreement. $277 deal. we saw what happened last week in terms of what the market value is >> i like everything that ed said, ed breen and you have the crypto world. opec, opec you have transparent, transparent, transparent i will prefer the latter any day of the week.

>> all right we will keep an eye on crypto as well of course he have stocks opening a little more than five minutes from now by the way, if you want, catch us any time anywhere by us any time anywhere by liensting to.y y

what if you were a trendy apparel company

facing an avalanche of demand? to ensure more customers can buy more sherpa-lined jackets, you call ibm to automate your it infrastructure with ai . now your systems monitor themselves. what used to take hours takes minutes. and you have an ecommerce platform designed to handle sudden spikes in overall demand... as in actual overalls. ♪♪

take 2 interactive is down on the premarket home of grand theft auto video game franchise they are cutting bookings guidance for the full year earlier today, they weighed in on consumers tightening their belts. >> engagement is great spending is under some pressure in game. and i think that's a reflection of the fact that 930%% of consumers don't spend money on global titles, of course they remain a relatively small percentage you can still enjoy our titles without spending, which is the intent but when people are under some pressure, when the cost of fuel and food has gone up, they may choose to spend a little bit

less >> thoughts on the metaverse, atvi deal as well. >> well, look. strauss is a straight shooter. a lot of companies have landed and expanded you get attracted by a model that doesn't pay you are supposed to do a little paying, and you're not david, i didn't think the consumer was as questioning their costs. but then again, i filled up this weekend. it was $92 i see where you might watch your pump and think, you know what, i'm not going to spend as much money in gaming. >> yeah. a lot of reporters of the stock, analysts are looking through this year -- or next year even to 2024.

and you have grand theft auto version six and the demand that will be there. >> when you get a grand theft auto 6, you should have a nice bump [ applause ] >> wow i'm hearing it [ applause ] >> you still have a lot of analysts downgrading >> here's the opening bell, opening above 3800 3820 or so at the big board. kimberly clark celebrating 150 years. speaking of interactive gaming, b of a does reiterate a neutral on meta. a lot more discussion about what the cuts could look like >> the can under the circumstances have to happen

now, the debate is who is going to come out and do a riff of reduction of force we had 40,000 before the pandemic now we have 80,000 that's the meta. when are they going to say 20,000 of you have to go when are they going to say we have to let go of the people we just hired when do they happen? until it happens, you're going nowhere. that's one of the reason fang acts so baddley. >> ft has a piece about economists seeing a white collar recession. meaning middle manufacturers get cut at a higher rate >> i have said that to david silicon valley is the epicenter. you have middle level.

mark zuckerberg is not going to fire himself for heaven's sake >> no. >> these people are kings. like the man who would be king >> i never read that i don't feel like i've fought back hard on this. clearly the evidence is people are being fired in silicon valley, starting to. >> this is not the caterpillar they lay people off. >> i know. but the question is what the impact will be overall >> does powell look at this kind of -- these layoffs and say, you know what, we have flexibility believe it or not, lyft talked about how it's hard to get drivers. >> they are back to the numbers of drivers they have to the prepandemic levels >> right >> although they're not back to

the number of actual miles driven for customers that they were prepandemic >> can you please explain to me how you can have a level of compensation as big as they did, and it didn't increase the number of shares very much don't you have to pay people. >> what? what's the question. >> compensation is something we are here to talk about >> typically when we give you the adjusted numbers one key question is as stocks fall dramatically and you can no longer compensate with the stock because they demand cash, you can't adjust your ebitda or for not paying anybody >> the video is down substantially. you always want to ask about stock-based compensation you have to know there are employees you will probably lose

if you paid them in stock. >> yeah. >> right >> yeah. and there are certain ones you will want to keep. the employer may have more leverage than the employee >> really good point it's something to watch. i don't know in 2001 we had some of these issues >> yeah. >> coinbase is down $6 the pressure that bitcoin is under. and crypto today >> well, you may have concerned some people. guys, i noticed tesla shares are getting racked again this after yesterday it was over $200 a share before trading yesterday. it's now down 4.5% on no news, unless you guys are aware of something >> no. and if you compare it, do a tesla gm, there's something going on that is separating the two.

>> you have to come back to twitter and just wonder what weather it's a question as to whether or not elon musk's attention is going to be much more focussed on twitter or even there have been some thoughts of what if he has to come up with more cash to fund this business right now. by the way, no idea. none >> i prefer general motors >> twitter reported daily average users that it had in quite some time. >> he tweeted he's hoping the servers don't melt usage is so high >> yeah. that's just not a good metric. it's a metric of nothing look, this whole area is getting into who cares mode. anything that -- look at trip. look at trip adviser now, he's going to say are you conflating tesla no i'm saying there is this complex

of stocks that people do not want and they consist of anything remotely involved with artificial intelligence, with machine learning, with companies that are not traditional david, this is the revenge of the nondisruptors. >> right >> the disruptors tried. and they tried in hunchback. talk about a good book hunch bake of notre dame >> really? >> oh, my god. you've got to go back. >> trip is interesting especially after expedia the other day, jim the journal has this piece on airfares saying they have come in a bit they will remain elevated for a while. >> i met expedia out in seattle. everything they said they were going to do, they did.

people say give me an energy company. give me something that involves banks. >> cruise lines today, nclh not doing bad. >> talk about being crash flow positive frank del rio is such a hitter and he is so -- do not mess with him. he took on desantis. probably the only person in the world to take on desantis. we took him on and he favored -- he came out against covid. >> wait. who? >> oh, frank del rio he said he had the right to test >> he was in an argument with governor desantis. >> there was another vehicle i never really understood the

governor's feud. he calls me every second in that automated thing. hi we're all in trouble you got to vote for us i don't know i did vote did you get it hi, i'm governor desantis. how did he get my phone? >> thankfully, i haven't been getting those. >> carvana continues to sink it once was far larger $304 it's now $6.90 talking about another step down in fundamentals. obviously when you're trying to sell cars, the sticker price of which is going up. and/or the ability to finance them the monthly cost up 160% over some time.

160% given the higher cost and the enormous move in interest rates. most customers do finance their purchases. >> one of the worst conference calls i've ever heard. at one point garcia said this is the worst time to be in our business to me, that was kind of a difficult thing to swallow they said they made an acquisition. i went back and looked at the acqui acquisition. it had real estate value so look out. they might be able to sell some real estate. >> right they asked them about that on the call >> actually, when you go back and look at what they bought, they said, yeah, look, this is great real estate value. there's something. they can sell some real estate >> by the way, the s&p auto infectious has wiped out all the gains since may of last year as you know by now, mannheim used cars, down 10 year on year, the lowest since august of last year. we will see if it matters to cpi

on thursday. >> it should although i will tell you at one point you have that problem. year over year it's down but when you look back to 2020, used cars are up skwraogiganticy right into a recession they're buying a steel company and selling used car company isn't that counter intuitive >> lordstown is a former spac. having a nice day today. shares of ride are up. a number of other investments. somewhat someone they made a lot of investments >> did you ever think you would

be talking a $2 stock? >> there have been a handful in fact, i want to talk about another below $2 stock one of the biggest spacs michael klein. >> running credit suisse >> multiplan npln i did talk about this company when it was -- when it announced that transaction nothing but pain for quite some time it has really been ugly. and they came in well below estimates in terms of ebitda there it is right there. >> software solutions. again, this is what -- >> this is in health care. >> yeah. i'm just saying i'm trying to just literally compile the

losses of 2021 from the ipo market it's unfathomable. there are billions not even worth 100 million. i can't even count those but the losses are, david, very much like 2000 they are like 2000 >> they are like a lot of those dotcom companies built on absolutely nothing in terms of a business model and implayed. imploded >> i think we haven't covered enough the destruction of capital it hasn't cooled the darn economy. there's a disconnect between the stock market and wealth. >> talking about a trillion dollar market value of companies and more

>> right >> and all the spacs combined don't add up to half of apple's market value. >> some people bought bitcoin. i'm just saying at a certain point i cannot believe that there hasn't been more of a -- >> you're like where's all the spacs? >> yes what happened to the wealth effect you have money coming out. you're getting pretty good return but i am shocked that the wealth effect hasn't cut in. >> that's the level of excess savings, runoff, how long it will take. although i know you saw revolving credit maybe people are relying more on

cars >> they should be. look, i just think -- i look at the stocks that came public in 2021 and i say, well, are people just brain dead if you own one of those -- if you own any of those -- there are so few that are up not even talking about spacs >> the ipo performance that came public in 2021. >> where is the accountability >> on the part of the underwriters >> us. me i don't know people got away with -- >> it was a different time people were willing to pay multiples. >> where are more people reporting on multiplans? how about that that's fabulous. a guy, michael klein, we all know, who will be on the spin-off credit suisse and he crossed away

now, you can say he didn't sofi i like -- >> i i know you do >> it's been lost in these things i get them in the lightning round >> how is wheels up doing? $1.59. >> listen, we can skwuft sit here all day and call people out. >> i sat there every day questioning spacs. every single day >> i will give you total credit. with when they mattered. maybe lucent isn't worth -- >> it was one of the great ones. >> i think if you pull the tape you would hear us saying this is not normal what's going on. >> i always feel bad >> i would always go, oh, they're going to make $700 billion. >> remember when you endorsed

quantum scape? you said we would be safe in quantum scape. >> terrible. >> we have muted action on this election day as we wait for returns tonight. above 3,800. >> good morning. dow up three days in a row well, tech still holding in there. semi is up nicely here nvidia news. working on the chip for china. that's helping them. materials and industrials advancing. industrials have been one of the big, big stories the last three weeks, really since the middle of earnings season energy has had a good run. but that's down a little bit today here i want to show you some of these industrial names rf up at the open. union pacific. caterpillar was up earlier on. lochhead they have all had tremendous runs big global industrials are the winners since the middle of

earnings season was announced. i'm just picking a date here caterpillar up 25% boeing up 18, honeywell up 18. lochhead up 12 it is nice to see this because this is a period where we have had tech fluttering around a little bit it's nice to see new leadership come into the field. this is one of the reasons we had that horrendous down run yet the s&p wasn't down nearly as much because we had other sectors, lug industrials and a little bit of health care, picking up the slack that is tremendous to see. they are getting overbought. nonetheless, nice to see that here as for the midterm elections, we have said everything we need to say about it a couple of quick things since 19 50, all 18 midterm elections followed by an up year for stocks this is why the bulls are happy about this the following three months they

all tend to be on the up side. pneumonia reduce combinations you can have four years where the best occurred that is a democratic president and republican house and senate. two-year return up 41% and that is a strong possibility that is the combination we are going to be having but don't kid yourself david mentioned this earlier listen to david, folks it is not going to matter if the macro doesn't cooperate. scream all you want about the strong seasonals we have a little bit of a three-bagger going here since the seasonals are santa claus rally, the end of the midterm elections. okay that's positive. all the things being equal, this would be a great end of the year but it's not we are dealing with macro, including fred and inflation, recession risk and gio politics. it's the macro that matters. to or that to change, we would have to see two-year yields come

down they're not. they are stuck at 44.6% if we get a 9% print on the cpi on thursday, carl, and we're expecting eight and people want a seven handle, meh, we get a nine, that will negate any gains we have in the next couple weeks. >> bob, good point a quick programming note tune in tonight to election night special, business on the ballot at 7:00 p.m. eastern time the midterms, what's at stake for your money a really good lineup with scott minerd, dan niles. >> as we go to break, take a look at bonds. cpi a couple days away watching yields and the picture there. overall, dow up 150.

a big part is amgen. be right back.

take a look at some nasdaq 100 gainers this morning we mentioned amgen far and away the best dow component. a moment ago it was worth about a third, at least, of the dow's overall gains. followed by palo alto, lam research, asml we'll keta a break and get back we'll keta a break and get back with

at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized. jm based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. what's worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. don't go anywhere.

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ™

jim, what's on "mad" tonight. >> fallen angel, zoom. we have max levchin, affirm, that stock's been down a lot and mr. osanloo. i don't know if you've been to portillo's, chicago food going nationwide and it's a fabulous story. we're going to have the truck here i have to tell you, their food is legendary and fantastic >> maybe david and i might come back. >> what fim is the truck getting here >> the whole staff is asking

i say portillo's is the best meal i've ever had it is so good. >> chicagoland sausage >> so good not disruptive >> not disruptive? >> if it's disruptive, it's dangerous. that's tonight's show. >> i'm glad we inspired you. david, michael klein - >> might be disrupp ty to my intestines. >> no, this stuff is good. >> we can't wait we'll see you at 6:00, "mad money. when wcoe me back, wes edens

is talking the y

good tuesday morning we will he welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange dow is up 200, s&p holding light on the macro data but plenty have corporate results and watching for the midterm results beginning tonight. >> that's right. let's get back to corporate results, shall we? 30 minutes into the trading

session, here are three big movers starting with dupont rallying. the company posting strong results despite higher costs for raw materials and energy those shares are up 8% plus, two tech names getting crushed post-results, take-two and lyft both down double digits we'll have more on their quarters later this hour finally, we will end with trip adviser, plunging after quarterly results came in below street forecast. the travel website operator citing currency fluctuations and as a meaningful negative impact on revenue but also saying that travel demand does remain strong you can see those there's are down almost 24%. kicking off the hour with the midterms in the markets, the major averages are higher as investors await elections results this evening let's bring in chief investment strategist greg paulson and michael azisz. a lot of talk about what change

in policy direction there may be if congress goes red how important is it over the next 6 to 12 months? >> i think if republicans take one or both chambers of congress, what you're going to learn there is there's limited possibility for further fiscal expansion in the u.s why that's important is because it takes off the table any type of risk that fiscal policy and the fed policy would be working against one another in fighting inflation. that ultimately is probably pretty friendly for the bond markets. now, i don't expect you would see a rally in bonds in the short term on that outcome because this very much the expected outcome with polls and prediction probabilities heavily flagging already this is the likely outcome. >> interesting jim, you had a great piece yesterday, speaking of the bond market, and how it's changed over time. and yet the s&p has managed to hold onto the flat line over five months. sort of being able to absorb a

lot of negative news >> yeah accidents can't. this mactiondz orket fell straih for five months since june now it's held flat you think about all the bad news we've had over the last five months the funds rate in june was 1%. now it's 4%. we've had four supra 75-point basis hikes by the fed the bond yield has gone to 4, 4.25 two-year yield has gone up even more we've had a lot of bad inflation reports over that period of time we've had just a persistent, you know, hawkish talk from the fed cabal. and then we've had, you know, the corporate community has come out with a regular talking point about how we're headed for an imminent recession yet, here we are, flat over those five months. and i think that may be a signal that this bull is starting to repair and the leadership of late has been better, too.

it's been more cyclical sectors, small cap, low quality stocks. not the headliner tech issues. it looks more like we're headed to a new recovery than a new recession. >> michael, i'm just reelding your note. a republican win may not create near term market volatility but creates situational volatility in 2023. you talk about a budget control act of 2011. potentially rematerializing. it's something i pay attention to pretty closely given the defense sector and military spending that i cover on this network. walk me through what those risks could be >> republican leadership has been pretty plain about the idea that they would like to use debt ceiling negotiations and other government funding deadlines as leverage points to try and reduce overall government spending now, we've seen these types of events over the last decade. typically you don't have substantial market reactions to them you did back in 2011

i think it's important to pay attention this time because these types of events would be happening amidst a weak economic back drop like you had in 2011 what that means is risks are skewed towards fiscal tightening, which is sort of pulling in the same direction as monetary policy. goes back to the original point, which is if republicans take one chamber of congress or both, that gives you a divided government the net policy outcome is probably friendly to bond markets. >> jim, let's get back to your -- i just heard kind of a market call from you the new recovery cycle seems to be at least what you're pointing to so, if you're correct, what are the things you actually want to own in that recovery >> yeah, david, i look at this like we've been in a recession and we're coming out whether we have a recession or not, we have in most people's minds. we're coming out so, i look at early cycle stocks my favorite sector is probably consumer discretionary

it's the one that was hit hardest by inflation because it destroys not only its operating margins but its customer base because it destroys their confidence and with that reversing, i think they'll be a leader. some of the other cyclicals, too. the industrials, the financials, i like a lot i'm okay with growth stocks. i don't think they're going to lead us off the lows here but next year when the economy gets really sluggish, which i think growth is going to get pretty sluggish, i think some of that steady eddy growth stocks will come back into favor and then i would look offshore a little bit here. emerging market ex-china the reason i say that is because the dollar has had such a big safe haven bid, david, as inflation rolls over and confidence returns, it's going to take the safe haven out of the dollar and that will make international stocks do pretty well in the next year. >> back to 110 today finally, michael, just on china, obviously the chipmakers are

adapting nvidia with this new gpu piece in "the times" last night about apple and just how smart it was to put your supply change and what they call the number one cyber threat to the u.s. how do you think, if the midterms -- if congress goes red in the senate and the house, does china, does the stance towards china change >> yeah, i actually think this is one area where the midterms don't matter much. there's a real bipartisan consensus amongst elected officials and amongst voters that u.s. policy should be more confrontational with china when it comes to export restrictions, investment restrictions, those things really spring from choices made by both republican and democratic presidents and by laws passed with bipartisan support. the executive branch ultimately kind of holds the lever on how tight they want to pull those restrictions but the trend raz heal been bipartisan and towards it being tighter. i don't think that's going to change with the midterms >> interesting we'll find out more tonight. obviously, the conversations will continue, though.

jim, michael, appreciate it very much great to see you both. >> thank you >> thanks. let's stay with those midterm elections. let's bring how much money has been spent in this campaign, so far. a few more hours to go >> that's right. spending on the midterm elections is projected to hit a new record high this cycle according to open secrets, federal candidates and political committees are expected to deploy $8.9 billion, blowing past the previous record in 2018 and when it comes to money, republicans have an advantage. overall, they're on track to spend about $4.3 billion democrats are slightly below that at $3.9 billion not surprising, the most expensive races are also the closest. control of the senate remains a tossup "totoday and both parties are spending big bucks to win in pennsylvania it's the most expensive race in the country, clocking in at $343

million. the georgia senate race is second with $255 million, followed by the arizona senate election at $220 million now, one key dynamic, a lot of these big donations were front-loaded that could be because there were some contentious primary races but it could also be related to the fact that so many people are now voting early 44 million people have already cast their ballot, according to the u.s. election project. as of now, more democrats have voted than republicans guys, that breakdown is to be expected democrats are generally more likely to vote by mail and vote early. republicans tend to vote in person and our own nbc polling tells us both parties are extremely engaged this cycle back to you. >> ylan, the results we get, 35 senate seats up for grabs, all 435 house seats. we've also got governors in 36 states as well the results that we get from this midterm election, how much does that tee us up for 2024 and the presidential election? >> yeah, absolutely. i think this dynamic that's going to be put in place today

is going to be absolutely critical to 2024 i've been calling it sort of the season pilot, as we look toward the presidential election. you know, if republicans do take one or both chambers of congress, it's really important to note that the republicans who have been running tend to be more conservative. many of them have been endorsed by president trump and that is going to be an important dynamic heading into 2024, especially if, as expected, we hear trump make some sort of announcement about his plans next week. >> all right thank you for bringing us the latest of course, you've been traveling around the country and seeing everything in action in these weeks leading up to today as well. as we head to a break, here's our road map for the rest of the hour, including a closer look at lyft's quarter down double digits post results. plus, we will talk tesla shares they're under pressure again we mentioned this in the last hour touching what is a 52-week low

an - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) d leading to no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

chief michelley $■%■

welcome back to "squawk on the street." we're checking in on the transportation etf ticker xtn. that's down more than 20% year-to-date fractionally higher this morning. one name in the etf to watch is lyft that is plunging post results. currently down 19, almost 20%. deirdre bosa joins us with more

on the quarter >> the number that stuck out most to me was active riders that came in nearly 1 million short, suggesting what some have been fearing, and that is lyft is losing market share the company admitted as much on the call to uber's driver incentives that means uber and lyft spend to compete while pitching a path to profitability to investors that still has a ton of caveat better unit economics, they're working towards that they both still have huge amounts of stock-based compensation, surcharges for riders, a potential labor battle and combined billions of dollars in gap losses this year. in terms of uber versus lyft, though, take a look at this chart. the market has certainly become more clear this year these two names used to be very closely correlated this year, though, they have diverged earlier cost-cutting measures is winning over investors of late he was able to spend most of

uber's call talking growth and demand, subscription products. lyft, meanwhile, had to spend most of the q&a portion on the call last night fielding questions about costs and being on the defensive, guys >> so, does this mean lyft could potentially have to or are ininvestors and analysts positing to lyft, should they consider diversifying not only beyond north american market but beyond ride-sharing given this divergence as well >> it's a good question but it may be too late. uber was able to do that in a much different market environment. they were able to spend to invest they used their stock price and that created a lot of dilution for investors. for lyft to do that at this point, it's in cost-cutting mode to make a strategic acquisition or invest in new areas is the opposite of what it's been doing. it's been scaling down and talking about this focus on ride-sharing, on transportation as a platform. but, morgan, in the end, i don't know, you cover this space as well, maybe that is a good move.

i mean, those targets it laid out for 2024, $1 billion in adjusted ebitda, $700 million in free cash flow the margins would be better than what uber is targeting the question is, can they get there? i think that's what investors are skeptical about as shown in its stock price, which is down, look at that, 80% year-to-date -- or over the last year, rather >> yeah. you see obvuber, it's down 40%. >> it's outperforming but both these companies trading well, well, well below those ipo prices well below what they were in the private markets. >> absolutely. yes, very key context there. thank you. i know you and the team will have a lot more in thenext hou on this quarter on "techcheck. we'll see you then. meantime after the break, we'll talk kohl's as its ceo is set to step down next month and head over to levi's. check out bitcoin, under pressure pressure down 70%

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq of trading to adapt in a fast changing world, you could hire a professional pit crew. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster.

on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. ami for a accelerate your decision-making world. workday. for a changing world. if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, rumors and news today and this week medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare

supplement plan. what if “just an idea” could become a family tradition? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

shares of kohl's, as you see, are up nicely this morning. this on news its long-time ceo michelle gass is going to step down as ceo in december. she will then move to levi's where she eventually is expected to become the ceo within, let's call t 18 months here to discuss, cnbc contributor and jay rodgers kniffin. we're also joined by dana telsey from telsey adviser group. jan, i'll quickly start with you. give us your reaction to both sides of this, a positive or negative for either or both of these companies. >> last i looked, kohl's shareholders looked happy. levi's not so much that's the same way i feel michelle has done an okay job at kohl's her ideas didn't turn kohl's around

she had a good idea with sephora but refused to sell the company as twice what it was trading at. i'm not surprised she's leaving. i'm a little surprised she's stepping into the role at levi's. >> dana, your take as well >> i think overall, i'm not surprised that michelle is leaving after what's happened over the past year or two. i think the success planning at levi planning. michelle knows the brand well. i think she basically can bring innovation and i think it's going to be -- if it's a good move for levi's and i think it's what was merited at kohl's i don't think it's a surprise to kohl's i think what's driving the stock up is third quarter earnings guidance is better than expected due to margin. >> i'm glad you mentioned it january, you mentioned the opportunity. perhaps it was there to sell the company. although financing was always a question in terms of those bids for kohl's but they also bought back a lot of stock under her leadership and at far higher prices i'm curious as to what you think

with the new leadership and the opportunity that presents itself for them >> i think tom king is going to step into the role he was good at burlington. at least they're in good hands as they decide to what to do whether there will be a transaction or a new ceo or even both, i don't know but this is certainly going to open that door again >> so, dana, i want to get your thoughts on gass going over to levi's what does it mean for the strategy unfolding at levi's as we see direct-to-consumer being a bigger and bigger piece of the puzzle for that company. >> i think overall they can continue to open new stores. theydon't have a lot of new stores in the united states. number two is on the direct business, which she has experience with direct business from kohl's and that digital expense structure can be looked at even closer and i think there's a global growth opportunity i think on the global growth side, that brings her experience from starbucks, where she was in charge of the asian business

i think there's a bit of each of it and i think it's very few leaders today that possess the ability to understand what a brand is and be able to deliver growth at the same time. i think kohl's was much harder i think a brand can shape their own destiny. a retailer shaped basically by the brands they have in it and what they can do to enhance the expense structure. >> so, jan, let's expand this conversation out a little more i want to get your take on retail more broadly. we've been hearing about inventory builds it does seem like there's been a bit of a shakeout at certain companies and thinking about bed bath & beyond and the news we've gotten this week it's no longer a situation where a strong consumer and strong margins coming out of record stimulus is a tide that lifts all boats. how would you gauge the sector where would you be putting money to work? >> well, i don't think it's surprising to think that the home side of the business, bed bath & beyond, for instance, is struggling bed bath was already struggling,

but that whole sector is struggling a bit we'll seal electronics struggle. i think apparel, luxuries, apparel, cosmetics, shoes will be strong for holiday. i don't know if we'll get a recession in the second half of 2023 but as of today sales are good in those sectors and will be good through holiday in apparel, accessories, shoes, jewelry, cosmetics, right on through into 2023. at some point in time, that may fade back. right now, the upper end businesses and those categories are quite strong the consumer seems healthy in those spaces they're getting pinched by inflation but they're still spending on going places and buying all that stuff to take with them. i don't see that changing through the end of this year we're going to have a solid fourth quarter >> and, dana, finally, back to kohl's and its future, as we note the stock is up, in part, perhaps, because of the better than expected numbers. longer term and under new leadership, whether it's the interim ceo or somebody who replaces him, what are your

expectations given it's been a very hard company to seemingly turn around? >> totally agree with you, david, it has. they need to move operating margins higher you can't sit here at 4% plus operating margin when the business used to do 7 to show improvement to get the stock to move higher, you need some sales growth even at a low single digit level, given the number of stores they have but you need to follow through and leverage on those expenses so you deliver the operating margin of the 7% to 8% they once talked about not just talked about, but that they did in 2018 and previously. >> okay. well, there's a blueprint. we'll see if they actually have an opportunity to follow it. jan and dana, thanks to you both >> thank you >> thank you after the break, billionaire investor wes edens joins us on set at post 9. we'll talk the outlook for energy, maetrks, midterms.

we're back iyy

i'm kristina partsinevelos here's your cnbc news update at this hour. polls are open across the country as americans cast their ballots in the midterm election. good weather could help turnout in many states voters in orlando, florida, are lining up to decide on three amendments to the constitution. in pennsylvania, dr. oz and john fetterman have voted. their races is one of the most competitive and closely watched today. both parties see it as a must-win contest in their bid to control the senate. powerball numbers have finally been picked. the drawing was delayed until this morning because of technical issues the jackpot grew to a world record of $2,040,000 because of strong ticket sales. lottery officials have not yet said if someone is taking home the grand prize. and got some breaking news

chris evans has been named the sexiest man alive by "people" magazine he has played captain america for nearly a decade. taking over from a fellow superhero actor, paul rudd carl, back over to you >> very good thanks very much, kristina partsinevelos. dow is up 300. session highs are awfully close to it as the bull rally enters a third day. interesting, got the dxy below 110. vix getting awfully close to 24. and the two-year has come down to 46. we'll watch all of that. meanwhile, we're watching natural gas, coming off off the highest level since september. our next guest says the global energy outlook may be more dire than we think. his lng fortress energy out with new results today, and here to discuss more is ceo and founder wes edens. glad to have you back at post 9. >> glad to be back. >> there's a lot to get to with you but i want to start with the fact that you are fresh off a

two-week tour in europe and middle east last month there's been this collective sigh of relief that seems to being breathed, whatever the word is, around natural gas prices and the fact we've seen storage fill up in europe ahead of this winter those prices have come off you're saying 2023 might be a little more dire than everybody's realizing. why? >> the name of the game is energy security. in the short term things look pretty good. it's still november so we haven't had much of a winter to deal with. this year supplies are very full but it's largely filled with russian gas. and the one thing we're quite sure about next year, there won't be russian gas just the math of getting to next winter, i think, is going to be hard and i was in europe for 12 days. met a lot of different folks on both the government and utilities and energy side. there's a lot of concern and justifiably so >> what type of shortfall are we talking about? what does that mean from your standpoint for natural gas prices, not only in europe but in places like here in the u.s.? >> so, the total gas they got

was about 40% of their supply came from russia, so it's a big chunk of it. to replace it it has to come through the oceans there's 30 terminals in europe that accounts for 60% of what they need. you need infrastructure to bring the gas in infrastructure doesn't come overnight. it's really hard to make the two things sort out. i think you're going to see some big supply >> talk to me about what this means for new fortress energy. you came out with earnings this morning, it was a mixed picture but recently you upped your guidance how are you working to combat this and add more capacity online >> well, we had earnings today that i thought were great. we are on the verge of creating our own supply, which should come online as early as next summer we think we'll be a major supplier into those markets over the next year or two or three when there's big demand for the product. it could be a big wind fall for us. >> what is the strategy right

now in terms of germany? you hear reports that vessels are sitting there offshore right now, waiting for prices to rise again. is that true >> i think it's more they don't have access to the pipelines to get into those countries, you have to go to the terminal and the terminal is connected to the pipeline and there's only so many of them the problem is the choke point of the terminals themselves. we put a ship into the first terminal built over there since the whole invasion in the netherlands. that's the first there's 15 or 20 that are needed it's judge cust going to be a while before they really connect those dots >> and, you know, you mention obviously russian gas. we know the pipeline has been shut down. what about the lng on vessels, is there still some being delivered? is that going to end as well >> there still is. there's no talk of imposing an embargo on that. you do have this first rivet of other lng making its way over there. the rest of the world has energy poverty. while china is shut down, that's a big part of the whole picture as well. if they turn back on, that would

be a big increment of demand there's a lot of factor that could make it worse not better. >> in september, zelenskyy said talks with russia would be impossible and last night he tweets out some conditions under which he might be engaged in talks. you really think a year from now there's zero chance of russian gas returning? >> they blew out the pipelines even if they made an agreement tomorrow, it would take time to put those things back together i don't think there's a good chance you'll have a meaningful amount of supply for next year certainly beyond that, i'm hopeful as everyone, that the conflict ends and ends in a peaceful way but i think the actual infrastructure is harmed right now. >> when we hear about he can talk of potential recession, not just here in the u.s. but globally, your thoughts on that? >> you know, i think that the era of cheap energy which has fueled economic growth in europe, germany in particular, is maybe in the past i think that's a real challenge. here, obviously, you have these two -- inflation on one hand, the fed is raising rates to slow

that down, as they should, without tipping the economy into a recession. that's a very delicate balance to strike. but i think it's a challenging time in the world. i really do. there's probably more things that can go wrong than right long term. energy is a central part of it energy security in europe, energy poverty in the rest of the world, climate change everywhere those are three complicated things we're all trying to juggle getting that right requires a lot of coordination and a lot of good judgment on government's parts. which is not easy. >> on election day, your thoughts on policies as they have been, i guess, materializing from an energy standpoint, especially when you talk about fast lng, which you're focused on, bringing this capacity online and the midterm elections and what those outcomes could mean for the policies >> i give the government credit for what they've done, the renewable act, there's a lot of

good things, hydrogen, battery, carbon capture storage that's all good. less on the fossil fuel side while everyone wants a clean future, you have to have a balance of the energy security and the energy you need. i would like to see more coordination coming from the government on both sides and have more of a balanced approach i think that that's necessary. from us, we're just looking to get permitted and out of the ground or out of the water to get on there that's been a great process for us here. i was in new mexico friday i spent a few hours with the president and signed agreements with the mexican government to put liquefiers down there. so, there's definitely movement on the topic it's not as fast as everyone would like from our standpoint, it's have very, very positive movement for sure. >> do you think we're going to produce -- we still have an issue of where we can get natural gas to, on pipelines, and then on the oil side, there are people saying we aren't producing enough and could produce a lot more do you agree >> the overall investment is down 15% from 2014 that's the problem

there's no easy fix. you have to encourage people to do it. even the climate activists that want to see things improve on the climate side, you is it i will have to get a bridge to get there. there's too much ideology, not enough action -- >> a lot of shareholders want their stock to be bought back or they want a higher dividend. they don't want it necessarily to go into production. >> when you're making long-term infrastructure investments, you want certainty you invest for 10 or 20 years, you want to know certain outcomes are there when the government has uncertainty that leads to 50% -- >> if we make this huge transition, if you believe in, say, peak oil, so to speak, what's the incentive to invest at all how do you end the cycle, the last cycle >> i think you need this balance. balance has to come back into the equation the first place it will come back is really in infrastructure we're talking about exploration and whatnot. you need the pipelines, you need the terminals, you need to get to the markets that need to get them around the world. we're ignoring what the needs are for the rest of the world.

we talk about europe, but that's great but energy poverty is a real thing everywhere. >> how do you balance it and thread the needle as a company we started this conversation talking about lng, but i know you're making investments towards hydrogen as well. >> we do we think both are actually very, very important i think that in the long term, i really do believe in hydrogen. i believe in a carbon-free future i just think the transition to get there is not going to happen overnight. jeff currie at goldman has these numbers. 2011, 82% of all energy was fossil fuel based. we invested $3.8 trillion in renewables since then and 82 has gone to 81 it shows you how complicated it is to get to this point and the other. you can't solve it with ideology you have to solve it with reason and have a plan. >> does that make you pessimistic? you were relying on governments to be rational >> i'm wildly optimistic about our business i think we're in an incredible place where we're going to have excess supply at a time when it's desperately needed around the world. what we do long term is provide

power in these places that need us i feel like we are absolutely on the right side of the supply/demand equation with respect to how this will realize, you know, a conclusion in europe, i'm not pessimistic but i'm a little skeptical it's going to happen easily there's a lot more to come and probably more downside than upside. >> in europe >> in europe, yeah. >> i want to shift from energy to another piece of the infrastructure puzzle, brightline, the railroad in florida. you have plans to build out another railroad out west between california and vegas as well has ridership recovered? >> it's recovered. we're up -- 50% higher than pre-covid. the product -- we built the southern portion of the railroad in florida as proof of concept to get it out in front of people, show them the quality of the services and whatnot it's been incredibly well received that train line to orlando should open next summer. it will be the first end-to-end

passenger railroad built in the country. vegas has tremendous promise and we hope to break ground on that next summer. >> given the fact that you do operate in the credit markets to the extent you do, i want to get your thoughts on rates, the trajectory you see there, and the health of the credit market more broadly. >> it sounds like things are closer to the end than beginning on the fed raises. that's all -- for everything we hear and we see, i think that's probably appropriate and that's where it seems like it's going the credit markets themselves are pretty dislocated. you don't have the same instability you had in the banking business as in 2007, 2008 that's the connected tissue and i don't see that at all. it's hard to get financing unless it's something essential -- >> leveraged finance market is pretty tight, right? >> they are. dislocated in some cases okay, in some cases not so good. it's a challenging time on the debt markets. >> last question for you soft bank reports earnings on friday there were reports this summer it is looking to sell fortress any truth to that? >> as far as i know, there's

nothing definitive that's been agreed we've been part of fortress, i started fortress many years ago. we still manage funds for investors and myself, my partner, we're deeply committed to those investors and i'd like to think we will continue to work on their behalf that's not our -- that's not our decision, so we'll see. >> what are you saying, though, that softbank may be considering it or you expect they are? >> i've read the same reports you have read so i would guess there's truth to it. our initial management contract is near the end. sf as far as i know, nothing definitive has been done. >> wes edens, thank you for joining us today. >> it's great seeing you guys. make sure you tune into cnbc's election night special. business on the ballot we'll break down topics at play in the midterms and how the results might impact your money. a great lineup including scott minerd, carlos gutierrez, suzanne clark. tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time

as we go to break, session highs. dow's up 360

somey y péj6 cf1 o right here.y ]

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm frank olland stocks are mostly higher on this election day with the material sector leading the s&p within that group, dupont is higher after the company beat estimates on eps and revenue despite higher costs for raw materials and for energy ablemarle, raising price target. and fertilizer stocks are jumping as mosaic missed estimates on eps and revenue due to damage from hurricane ian and lower fertilizer prices. now back downtown to you guys. >> frank holland, thank you. still to come, tesla touching a new 52-week low today. it's down about 4.5% there's a recall in the mix in terms of news headlines this

morning. i promise - as an independent advisor - to put the financial well-being of you and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship we'l charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.comlu

be moving the stock. we're back in two.y prtg n ty

nvidia shares moving up as

much as 2.5% this as the company offers a new chip to china that will meet u.s. export controls joining us now is former cypress semiconductor ceo tj rodgers first, let me get your reaction to that. nvidia seems to be trying to get creative as quickly as it can to meet chinese demand, but do so, obviously, without running afoul of u.s. regulations. make sense to you? >> sure. the chips they're making are not state-of-the-art and complexity. they need to be cheap, so they simply go up to a node that's bigger than the cutoff, the small cutoff node the government set and there's no problem they can make money and not give the chinese technology we don't want them to have. >> what is your sense, overall, in terms of the continuing deterioration of the relationship between china and the u.s. competition, obviously, when it comes to quantum computing or ai, how bad is this

going to get what kind of a threat does it pose for u.s. manufacturers of chips and/or those around the world? >> okay. how bad it's going to get, i don't know you know, we roll the dice year to day for what it means for chips, i can talk about that china had become the biggest, if you look at a country customer, the biggest customer of the chip industry by far. and that's because everybody, washing machines, cars, you know, people make stuff in china, and, therefore, chips in china, they are assembled into boards and products there and come back in the finished form and since we're withdrawing, and that withdrawal has become much more potent because the u.s., international companies have started pulling back from china. so, china -- gus rushard is an analyst that uses long covid china has long covid

what's going to happen is they're going to -- they're going to be less of a customer and that rearrangement is going to take a couple of years. we'll still make the chips people still want the end products but they're going to go to some other country or get made and used here in the united states. going to get made and used here in the u.s >> tj, we keep coming back to this piece in the times last night, but it's all about how in their world, apple built their empire in china, a huge dynamic in apple's assent aand now they're stuck with this enormous supply chain in a country that could well be an eventual threat how do you get out how do you get out in time do you think some of thee incremental moves to india or vietnam, for example, are just the beginning of a wholesale replacement of their supply chain? >> they're just the beginning.

wholesale, sold out is too negative a world, but wholesale moved to china i was once at a conference and i sat with five ceos and i asked where are you going to put their next plant, everyone said china. you have to develop alternatives we're looking at, not looking at, already coming out of thailand, vietnam, malaysia. and china's going to have to have competition they're getting arrogant, strident they steal things. in terms of i.p., it's difficult tos you any other word but crooked the way they work. they need to get slapped upside the head and start being good international citizens which they are not because of their government >> so the question i keep coming back to, especially in light of the chips act, is how much of the supply chain, the tech supply chain, startings

semi-c semi-conductors, can reshore here in the u.s. is that realistic, can it happen quickly, what does it look like? >> in some cases, it's realistic. there are certain parts of the supply chain that add enough value that you can bring to the united states. the idea that we're going to bring $2 jobs back to the u.s. is a joke. morris chang founded tsmc, and he's building us a plant in arizona. thank you. but he's already said that the idea of reshoring semi-conductors in the united states, particularly commodity semi-conductors, is not going to happen, and he's right because at the end of the day, the companies competing to buy chips will buy the most economical product, and that in many cases can't get made in the u.s. we're going to bring some stuff back we're not going to lose strategic things like we have before and we're going to rely on other

low-priced alternatives offshore, and that is a glacial kind of change as supply chain is like cutting off your arm when you put it back on, the bones have to get set. the muscles, the vessels, the blood vessels, the nerves. a 12-hour operation. and that's what's going to happen to us, and you can't break before you make. so we'll keep going with the way we're going, but all american companies right now are looking at how do i have alternatives so i don't get surprised one morning when i read the newspaper. >> t.j., always appreciate your insight. thank you. >> you're welcome. >> coming up on "tech check," a lot more on those results from lyft and take-two. lyft down 20 is not an all-time low, a little lower in mid-october, but take two is the lowest since 2019. that all begin

i started as a single mom with $2000 and a passion for new orleans.t i'm lauren haydel owner of fluerty girl. today, my tiny online shop has grown into eight stores. we're a must-stop shop for unique nola-inspired gifts. lauren doesn't just create she creates opportunities.top

small businesses like lauren's open doors for neighborhoods to thrive. support your community. support small business. don't go away.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." americans are continuing to battle inflay as a growing number of struggling to make their monthly auto payments now. phil lebeau has more on that for us hi, phil

>> hi, morgan. this is new data from transunion looking at auto delinquencies. where things are with the auto loan market in the third quarter, and no surprise as the economy has slowed down, we have seen an increase in auto loan delinquencies. this is the highest point in at least a decade a couple things. one, it's primarily subprime and some of this is because people who were in loan accommodation programs are no longer in those programs >> there's been this effect where a delinquency that may have occurred in the last few years is pushed out or delayed because that consumer didn't have to make payments. so now some of those are hitting. >> take a look at shares of carvana, down again today. this is one of those stocks we have been watching over the last three days since the company reported its q3 results on thursday jpmorgan out today, cut its price target in half down to $10, saying carvana is not yet

out of the woods speaking of q3 results, today after the bell, we'll hear from lucid, we'll get the results after the bell shares of lucid well below when they had their spac ipo in 2021, and then there is tesla. we're showing you tesla going back to august 4th, the date shearholders approved a 3 for 1 stock split. the stock is down more than 30% as people continue to say, okay, where is the next leg of growth? what's going to get the stock moving again >> yeah, phil, that's where i wanted to ask you. you know, we were speculating on the reasons behind the weakness, particularly as it diverges from the rest of the group. do you think it is simply that question and the fact that it still trades at something close to nine times sales? does it have anything to do with this idea that musk is distracted with twitter or might even have to sell more tesla shares to help fund certain initiatives there? >> i think it's all of that, david. i think it is all of that, and this stock, as we tracked it over the years, when it moves

higher, it moves higher very quickly, and it's primarily because it's driven by a story, a theme. something has happed there there is nothing, if you look out over the next couple months where you say, this is coming. this is going to be a big catalyst for tesla's growth. the actual growth of sales hasn't slowed down but there isn't a story right now. i think that plays into why a lot of investors are saying do i need to own this right now >> speaking of companies that are making big moves, or stocks are making big moves lordstown, the injection by fox con in terms of investment, expectation we're going to see more of these investments, more consolidation in the ev space? >> we will see more consolidation. there is no doubt about that look at arival out of the uk ev commercial vehicle maker. it said today, it issued a going concern warning. these guys are not turning a rauf profit yet we have been through this before you're not turning a profit and

we slide into a recession, that's when you start to see companies go belly up or conso consolidate. >> at some point it actually becomes important to generate real cash flow phil, thanks for a rundown of all those different names. continue to focus in part on that loss of market cap in tesla. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. send it over to "tech check" which starts right now >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "tech check," i'm carl with deirdre. jon is going to be with us in just a bit he's wrapping up a conversation with the fcc chair at the paly center for media, and i'll bring us those highlights in a minute. in the meantime, lyft, take-two, trip all plummeting on the heels of their results we'll dive into the state of the consumer and discretionary spending on a day where the dow hits its highest intraday level since august take-two, activision reporting we're joined by microsoft's head of gaming. and then b of a cutting its target for apple the analyst behind that call