thanks for watching. from the nasdaq market site in new york city in times square, this is "fast money" we have a special interview with the economist that started the infamous chatter this week about a possible second stimulus. it's an interview that could move the markets next week. you have to be on the right side of that trade. the stock market falling in the fourth week in a row since the first streak in march. how do you profit and protect against this correction. how let's get the word. key levels here, 870. >> we held it, tested it. you're in no man's land. i'd rather test 870, rally above close at 885 or so. this is some room. right straight to the levels and making it difficult coming in to next week. i don't think it will hold 870. it feel feels like a low here. a hodgepodge.

but if you're long on the weekend. it's good or bad things. >> if you look at -- talking about the big brokers there. 30% to 40% of the close were on the short side. we came in with china export numbers. if this was the engine for growth, that's not what they wanted to see. eighth straight month of lower activity. the ammunition is higher. i'm not sure it's there. we look like we forestalled a fall this week that's probably still coming. >> first half an hour, we came out of the gate, we wanted to rally. the s&p wanted to get back above 880. we talked on the show about the michigan consumer confidence came out. not so hot. we're not feeling confident about anything. go back to the unemployment report we saw at the beginning of the month. that's why this whole conversation about the second stimulus is occurring because right now there's no confidence that we're losing jobs at the rate we are. >> at the same time. we're talking to laura tyson

about this. if we did get word the this is floated out there. this is the possibility this is on the table, a second stimulus plan, would that be good for the markets or is that one of the things that the markets will say is it worse than we all thought. it's terrible news. >> that's the interpretation i would read is things are worse than we thought. i would not like to see a second stimulus for that reason besides the fiscal possibility. to me, though, of all of the data that we look at, the consumer confidence is one of the lesser important ones. and it isn't a measure of anything in terms of inventory, in terms of sales, in terms of -- it's just a measure of sentiment and sentiment can change quickly. we've seen in this market how you can have a flood of sellers become a torrent of buyers. so, i don't put too much in to consumer sentiment. >> the other part of the sentiment that was good this week, a big part of it if we have a stimulus which is the treasury mark. a strong week. the ten-year options, one of the record in s of demand, a

30-year option. foreign central banks more in the options than other weeks. we're buying and are buyers. is that a sign of a weak economy. i think it's more that. >> there are trades out there. avid labs are in for a long time. a great run since april. almost tested9 a couple of weeks ago. we talked about how 49 is going to take profits. now it's pulled back. guess what, they report on wednesday. morgan stanley raised the fiscal ten estimates, $4.11. you put the multiple on it, $49. the analysts lowered the price target to 46. avid ahead of earnings the name they want to dip their toe in to. >> you look at the entire market. oil prices do not stay above $70. the s&p is going to roll over. the s&p is going to roll over. what do we need from oil? we need stabilization. that's it. we need liquidation of spectors to end and oil prices just to stabilize. vacillate north and south of $60

and the s&p can trade a little momentum. >> we've seen crude oil drop 10%. if you separate out. in the halftime report, you were talking about the speculative premium that's been in the price of oil. you backed it out to $58 a share. you closed just above $59 a barrel today. >> watching the flows, watching oil futures trade today, you've seen significant amounts of selling come in. clearly everyone is moving to the sidelines on the futures side. but they want the exposure in the energy equity names. we talked about that. they are coming in. they're crafting the exposure anyway they can get it. they're looking at oil service names, they're looking at global integrated names. i tell you what, on the refiners, today, i bought frontier, a refiner. i know everybody came in here and started to talk about the negativity surrounding the refiners. it is priced for armageddon, folks. it's a great hedge against economic recovery. a hurricane. i like the refiners here.

the bad news is in the prize. >> have to be worried that chevron comes out and said the strong dollar is offsetting any gains it's seen in oil. >> the refining margins. >> the refining margins a quarter of their earnings. >> they're an integrated oil company. i agree with you. it's interesting it's notable on that day. it's down 23.5%. they're talking about the falling dollar overseas. they're the first of the guys to report and the first of the guys to warn. so i do think we'll see something similar. it's a different balance sheet. i feel fine in exxon here. >> more than any other commodity. oil is a commodity that did it a visual turn. did it at $70. did it at $35. will do it again for you. that being said, it hasn't shown it will turn back up yet. you'll know when it does. it hasn't happened yet. i stay away from integrateds. you look at the service names, you you have to be impressed. those are the stocks that have corrected much more than the price of oil. you can still be safe with some

of those names. that being said, if the tape is it going to break down, you're not safe in anything. but all services -- >> to put a wrap on this, melissa. the question is, do they come back to the oil futures phase? i mean, if oil ticks up again, do we see everyone pile back in and get the futures? or do they do as we have suggested on the desk and get equity explode euroin energy needs. >> there's a reason to invest in oil to begin with, the volati volatili volatility, the extra juice you can have you don't get from the s&p. >> it's so pure of a play where some of the equities are not a pure play. so many factors going to the equity prices. the market for one. oil futures a pure play. but i really think we have not seen the end of this derivative discussion. that's a really important aspect of who's going to be in these markets and what instruments are they going to use so you can see a further decoupling. it's been a couple of days. it's so dramatic. but a further decouple. >> you will expect a further

plea out of the futures markets even if we do see oil prices. joe brings up a good point if the oil prices go higher. they're able to leave it on the table. >> they may not be able to. they may not take speculative long positions in the oil if some of the things we heard about -- >> oil prices, just to give people an idea of where we are, where it could go. we're 8% below the 50-day moving average in the worst of oil's price down. it went below the 50-day average. oil was technical, joe will tell you that. we, either way, are not too far off of the bottom here. i would say 57 is your next stop. then 52. but i think we're going to rally off 57. >> you made the point this administration this, is the one administration that will get it done when it s to regulation. >> move on. time to take your position. we have a couple of earnings ahead next week. intel, google, ibm on deck. who will rise to the occasion? jim goldman joins us with a

preview. certainly, jim, it is interesting that we have the goldman sachs, downgrade of ibm shifts to the growth names ahead of next week. >> an interesting call. you're talking about a real slew of top tech names where we're seeing the earnings estimates creep up a little bit. guidance is getting exciting as far as the analysts are concerned. the call on ibm is interesting if you think about the enterprise is going or expected to go on the back half of this year. ibm's commentary is going to be key as far as where this stock goes. if you're talking about intel and google, you know, we've watched estimates creep up by key analysts on wall street in the past week or two, i'm wondering if there's too much optimi optimism. they're expecting good news. too much optimism and some of the estimates are getting ahead of ourselves. again, it's coming down to commentary to see where the companies see the rest of the year coming. intel is looking good, so is google. >> goldman sachs is playing a dangerous game of stock market

here with ibm. ibm on may 13 told us they were going to make between $10 and $11 a share in 2010. they have a huge recurring scheme. they're not a's cyclical. i'm not sure what they do here, but ibm, if it pulls back, you have to own this name. >> if you see any weakness with ibm because the company has been essentially much more bullish than most of the other tech companies out there, especially if we look at the third and fourth quarter calendar year in 2009 and 2010, this is a company that sees things start to pick up, among the top enterprise customers, not just here in the united states but internationally so. for goldman to make the call it's making now, you wonner where the information is coming from. you are got to think that ibm is going to meet expectations. the company has done well in the last couple of quarters. >> i'm curious what you think about this. what microsoft. if you look at what ceos are going to do, 40% of the ceos

interviewed are going to be upgrading to windows 7 in the first year. this has given these gips the kind of upgrade the earnings and growth that goldman is talking about here. i'm curious your view. >> well, yeah, i think the windows 7 upgrade cycle is going to be the key for so much of the technology community. this is not just a microsoft story. this is a netbook story, an intel story, an hp and dell story. this is going to be a significant upgrade cycle because of where it's happening in the economic time line that we've seen. so many companies have held off through this economic downturn of doing any kind of major purchases as far as computer or technology upgrades are concerned. windows 7 is coming at a time when companies are beginning to think, yeah, we want to upgrade our software and the process we're going to upgrade our hardware as well. maybe not in the third and fourth quarter this year but it will start to catch on fire in the first and second quarters of

2010. >> thank you for your time and your reporting. we should note that the goldman sachs note said the cycle would be 2010. >> to add to this, you have to look at the semiconductor spacement look at the durable goods showing ratios beginning to rise in terms of new orders versus inventories. a name i like, paradigm. i jump back in to it today. the semiconductor space is tethered in that demand. i think that on this pullback is an opportunity. >> do you like the goldman name in terms of switching to dell? or would you favor other computer makers or do you see ibm at $100.83? >> i think it's in a state of flux. i think ibm is a name i'm much more comfortable with. i like walmart. go-to value position right now. if the market rallies, you'll do fine. if the market starts to fall apart, you'll get much more

perks in the ibm. >> credit suisse reads numbers as well. if you look at the bernstein piece, that would be the big winner along with hewlett packard. dell didn't do anything. changed all day. it's okay, should have been higher. i know john likes it. dell is pretty interesting. >> a final thought on technology. if there's one sector that understands the deflationary environment that has been through it with the tech double in 2001, look alt technology. they get it. they know how to manage the inveb conciliatoi inventorie inventori inventories. they've been through this crisis before. >> financials got hit hard today. the financial etf using more than 3%. when you look at the calendar, which financials will set the tone. yes, goldman sachs is expected to do well. we have that upgrade earlier this week that saying the revenues could exceed 2007. but at the same time, they're best in class. that have ear a separate kind of breed.

they used their capital differently than other financials. they set the tone from the rest of the group. another. >> jp morgan is more of a bellwether. >> okay. >> hello, mr. diamond. >> aside from that, the training revenue, i think it's a one off quarter. look amount jpmorgan. some of the aspects. a huge recurring stream and bank of america and stuff like that. but to me, jp morgan is the bellwether. >> as a matter of fact, the training revenues are too good, all of the analysts come out and say there's no way to replicate. and they said it many times. listen, we like goldman but we don't like it at the levels it currently trades at. 134, 135 gets interesting. we saw this this week. it can easily get back down there. then you take a look. in the 140s. it's dead money.

>> goldman has not seen all of the drain the other guys have. look at bank of america. they were trading with the other guys, they're gone. some of the best brokers have left those shops. goldman is going to have record -- record payouts in -- for 2008 earnings. that's incredible. that will keep goldman on top because they are taking risk in a different way than the rest. >> i like morgan stanley, it's basically goldman sachs light. they're a leader in the m&a activity. gaining, acquiring people from ore entities. morgan stanley might be the play. >> the bigger question is, yes, they'll get the points next week. that will provide you with the trade. the outlook, fdr makes a good play here, the second quarter is going to be noisy. are we going to get a good picture of financials going forward in terms of beyond the past quarter? >> i think a lot of us driving the story is low provisions. what is the credit quality? is it continued deterioration. >> unemployment down or higher? >> it's not good for any consumer loans they have

outstanding and big credit card portfolios at bank of america and jpmorgan which goldman, for example, doesn't have much exposure. they should have commercial real estate exposure where a lot of banks have overlapping same credit issues there. that's going to be important which is why i come to jpmorgan as a bellwether. >> all of america is watching in awe. general motors promising that the fallen giant will be reformed and business is as usual. that is over. what does that mean for the industry and the economy as a whole? phil lebeau, our reporter joins us from outside of gm's headquarters in detroit. it's interesting they're trying to close a chapter on a company that's not known for acting very quickly in the past. >> it is. the fact they can be nimble and react to other companies. not only to market to different products but in terms of

changing perceptions with the american car buyer. they have a tall order in front of themselves. i said it for sometime. going through bankruptcy is the easy part. straighten out the balance sheet. that's the easy part. the tough part is changing perceptions of general motors being a plodding, slow company that doesn't have imaginative vehicles or when they do, it's one and then more boring vehicles. they're going to have to really run fast to change that perception. >> and beyond the per seng, at this point, they've lost market share to ford and to others. they don't have many new models coming it. what is their strategy at this point? they seem to be behind the game. >> as far as the models, they have a product cadence that is far more aggressive than chrysler. actually, it might not be as aggressive as ford. but it's not as though the cup board is dry. they have product that is coming. the problem is they have essentially for the last six months to nine months, no marketing at all. none whatsoever. and as a result, the public is

looking at general motors and say, okay, what chevy have coming? what's cadillac have out there? they have to reintroduce themselves to the american public. that's going to take some time. >> gm entered bankruptcy. nobody would buy a car from them. the warranties were -- people were uncertain about that. now they entered and exited bankruptcy. has that phenomenon come to pass? oh. >> absolutely. i think, karen, essentially that was put on the side as a concern once the president stood up at the white house and said, you know what, the federal government is going to stand behind gm and chrysler warranties. you'll never have to worry if your car breaks down. if you buy these vehicles, i want's not like you're going to be stuck with a vehicle you can't get repaired. once he said that, that put that concern to rest. now you have a company, along with chrysler, they've gone through this so quickly. you don't hear people talking about, well, maybe the residual values on these vehicles will plummet. chrysler's residual values have

increased since coming out of bankruptcy. lit be interesting to see if the same thing happens with general motors. >> got it. thanks so much. enjoy your weekend. that was "the word on the street." coming up next, she was the woman who rattled the markets after floating the idea of a second stimulus package. the member of the president's economic recovery board. she joins us live. and then the trade. is obama doubling down on stimulus? if he is, you need to get your money behind it. the member of the economic advisory board who first floated the idea sets the record straight next. and, are you down with the king? goldman sachs reports next week and you won't believe what they're going to say. >> oh plus, from china to clean energy, the winning way to play with fast fun. ♪ look at ts man ♪ so essed with inspiration ♪ ♪ i don't know ch

♪ but i know i love y ♪ and tt may ♪o know (announcer) stomers love ge aircftngines almost as much as love making them. innovation today for america's tomorrow.

welcome back to "fast money." live at the nasdaq market site. the "washington post" is reporting that according to sources familiar with the situation, the obama add administration is developing a plan, a initiative to take money out of the t.a.r.p. program, the bank bailout program and

allocate some of that money for help for small businesses. this is according to the wa post. "the wall street journal" is matching those headlines. so we'll bring you the developments and the stories as it progresses. time for the obama trade. the idea shook the stimulus package this week. could it happen? the economist who started the second stimulus chatter, laura tyson is a member of the president's economic -- economic recovery advisory board, and joins me from berkeley. it's a pleasure to have you with us. >> thanks a lot, melissa. >> first of all, it's so hard to comprehend talk of a second stimulus plan simply because only a small percentage of the $787 billion has been spent. how can you come to the conclusion that the second stimulus plan is need? we haven't spent the bulk of the first? oh. >> right. i wanted to set the record straight. >> okay. >> basically i think the following -- the economy is in recession. the recession is moderating. we have only spent one quarter of that original stimulus

package. and actually it's being spent out and having an effect more or less as predicted. it's kind of on track. but what's also true is that the economic outlook is very ? uncertain. and there are a lot of downside risks. i think it's premature to plan for a second stimulus, but i think everyone should keep in mind that what we need to do in a highly uncertain economic situation where there's a lot of downside risk, what we need to do is continue to monitor the economy, monitor the spend out of the first stimulus and how it's affecting things and make a decision of whether something more is warranted. but that decision won't be for several months. when i was asked about it, i said as a scenario planner if i were teaching a business course, i would say let's look several months ahead and see where the situation is and whether the economy needs an additional stimulus. we don't know that. >> put on youre scenario plannig

cap. what's the scenario we need it? what sorts of metrics we looking for? what would be the red flag? >> what you want to look at is -- today it's interesting to have this discussion today. to show how uncertain the situation is, we got a good indicator. the trade numbers are better than expected. that's the debt that the economy in the second quarter may turn out to be stronger or the third quarter than we expect. a lot of uncertainty here. so i think you have to monitor the real economy. it's like taking care of a patient that you're trying to help recover. you take care of the -- you look at the vital signs. the vital signs are the rate of growth of output, the unemployment rate, the greater growth of jobs. we've had already an improvement, now, an improvement from a dire situation. in the second quarter of this year, the unemployment -- the -- the increase in number of unemployed peoples, 1.3 million versus 2.1 in the first quarter. still a terrible number 1,.3 million people losing their jobs. it's down sharply from the 2.1

million. and economists do believe that number, the second quarter number would have been significantly worse had we not had the spend out of the first stimulus. by all means. we have to monitor a number of vital signs that have to do with output level, capacity levels, growth levels, up employment rates, rate of employment or re-employment or job loss. >> would you agree with vice president's biden's comments. you're sitting on the economic recovery board. did you also misread the depth of this downturn? >> i think everybody should know the economic recovery board is truly advisory. we all speak for ourselves. and second of all, i honestly think if you ask mostprofession al economists, they don't know right now what the second quarter is going to be. there's a huge amount of noise in these numbers. we near a balance sheet recession. we haven't gone through this kind of recession in most of the

lifetimes of the forecasters. by the way, the models that the forecasters use are the same model that missed the fact that we were going to have this recession. so let's admit a lot of uncertainty here. and i would say what is the case is that the spendout of the stimulus and its effect on the real economy seem to be in line with the expectation of those who framed the stimulus and predicted the effects, for example, on -- on slowing the pace of job loss or slowing the pace of economic contraction. if you look at the indicators. slowing the pace of a downturn? no one predicted that we were going to predict from one quarter to the next a deep downturn to a recovery. that was impossible. slowing the pace of the downturn and within the noise, i think the consensus is, and this is what most economists said, it looks like the stimulus is sort of working as expected.

the biggest effect of the first stimulus is really meant to be designed to be in the first quarter, the biggest effect on gdp growth. the biggest effect on unemployment growth in the next quarter. it will bring down the unemployment rate relative to where it would have been. it's not a good number. nobody's happy with the number. what you're trying to do is make a bad situation considerably less bad. >> right, right. >> dr. tyson, it's joe. real quick. i agree. it's balance sheet recession. clearly. but the real problem here, forgetting the stimulus for a second. all of the liquidity expansion. it's still trap in the banking system. how do you get the liquidity expansion out of the banking system to where it needs to be? >> well, i mean, you know, the problem with the balance sheet recession is that everyone wants to restore their balance sheets understandably, including the banking institutions themselves.

house holds want to do that, banks want to do that, businesses want to do that. what do you do? i think right at the beginning of the segment it was mentioned that the treasury was discussing using a -- some of the t.a.r.p. funds for small business credit. that's the idea that the treasury has mentioned. let's think about trying to direct credit to those parts of the economy who are particularly hard hit. we've seen that in the housing package that the obama administration has put in place. that is beginning to have an effect. we can imagine possibly using some of the funds for small business in a tight situation. so i think what you're going to have to do is think about how can you unlock credit to certain segments of the economy? oh. >> dr. tyson, it's karen. is theredy man enough out there

for a stimulus package, in terms of political capital, but also how does this affect the price for the government to fund the deficit? >> well, look, as i said, i really do think it's premature to speculate about a second stimulus. but i will say about to answer the deficit versus stimulus question in general. because people raise it vis-a-vis the first stimulus that we're now living through. we really need to make a distinction here. and the obama administration has made it over and over again between a short run, weakness in the economy, a loss of aggrav e aggravated demand where stimulating and tax relief is what's called for along with a tremendous expansion of liquidity and support for the credit system through the federal reserve. the obama administration and the fed and obama officials are working together, as they should, to try to stimulate demand and the truck -- the next

thing, the future. we have to get our long-term fiscal house in order. everyone recognizes that in washington. i believe the obama administration has made it very clear, the first order of business, of course, is health care reform. >> got it. thank you so much for your time. we truly appreciate it. hope you'll come back on the program sometime soon. time now to take your position. earnings season ramping up next week. it appears this time around, good enough will no longer be good enough for the market. can we expect any growth from the companies out of the second quarter reports? take a look at the chart of the day. this is a chart of the percentage of companies that beat revenue forecasts over the last seven years, indicating a huge dropoff over the last few quarters. in fact, the average was 69.9 last year with about 46%. so how do you position yourself ahead of earnings next week? christopher zook, cio of cac investments. good to see you in person. >> good to be here. >> what's the area you would be most concerned about that you would play. >> there's a lot of areas to be

concerned about. we saw on that chart, we're seeing earnings see expectations but there's no revenue growth. until such time, you cannot have real earnings sustainability. that's going to impact the multiples. >> are there sectors more at risk of the revenues? >> the financials are seriously at risk, as far as meeting revenue expectations. they're going to meet the earnings expectations because they are going to take the write-down that they would have previously. some areas, the health care names will be softer. consumer discretionary will be softer. as you have a lot of people hoarding their money as opposed to spending their money. >>ing looking at commodities, what are you buying? >> a stagnation forecast. be short or avoid those most sensitive to the economy, except for those who are going to reinflate, such as commodity names. the commodity names, whether it be all service or some of the copper and the gold names, i think there will be worldwide demand for those. there's an opportunity to

potentially take advantage of those. both earnings in a longer term view. >> i agree with the long-term progress know sils. you talk about top line. a lot of these guys' productions down. prices are down. i don't understand how the top line is going to grow. for these guys, it's been an earnings improvement even though the long-term commodities run. how do you justify that? >> that's a great point. i have believe that's what's going to happen -- the earnings this quarter are not going to be great. one of the ways to take a advantage of that thesis is selling puts of names that you would be willing to buy but buying spreads on the upside that we get premium that we take it, make money if nothing happened. >> how far down do you sell those puts right here. we're down 20% off of the highs. >> exactly. one of the things i talked about a month and a half ago we needed a 20% to 30% pullback. we've got b that. 10% and 15%, some cases we have

support like the aohs, maybe 5% or 10%, we call spreads out 20% depending on the volatility. >> safe travels. >> thank you very much. across the pobld, they cannot contain their excitement for joe's stock of the day. to tell you why the trade is still on, this is 46% rubup this year. be back in a moment. founded in 1984, the concept of selling computers directly to customers, this pc maker has recently hit some road bumps. >> had nothing but problems going forward. they just haven't been able to show anybody anything about growth. this is not a stock that's absolutely dead, however. >> today's pete's prophesy came true and the stock came alive on positive comments on goldman and credit suisse. who is it? the answer when fast money returns.

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on the trader radar tonight? dell, the pc maker was one of the most active names on the nasdaq today. welcome back to "fast money." here's what we have coming up in

the second half of the program. joe's stocks of the day and why oil saw this stock's gain. and we're heading to stocks to see trading after dark to see where options traders are putting bets ahead of earnings. final trade, one is betting big on fertilizer. fast funds, a slew of positive data out of china indicating the country's $585 billion stimulus plan could be starting to take effect. what is the best way to play this recovery? joining us is the securities president from colorado. christian, great to talk to you. we should note your specialty is etf. when we talk about china, we normally think of fxi. we've got another play. that's right, melissa. great to be here. love the new look of "fast money." china has done well. dr. tyson may want to take her committee and go at a you can to china about the stimulus that they've enacted there. the stimulus is working in china. auto sell as are up, 36%. home prices are now up as of june. factory orders are improving.

so i think china is the place to be. if we don't get our act together in the u.s., more money is going to migrate to china. one of the areas i think you need to look at when you look at china is smaller cap company names. these are names that are not state-owned enterprises. many of the largest investments like fxi primarily own these large state-owned corporations that aren't really for the shareholder, they're for the state governments. i think as somebody who believes in the entrepreneurial spirit, we look at small cap. a small cap etf hho done well this year up 50% versus fxi around 40%. a place to look at. >> you know i'm a believer, we know china has decoupled. small caps, i'm concerned about the corporates in china. the small cap level, it's as atrocious as it is anywhere in the world. how do you get around that? do you screen for people? how do we get more comfortable?

>> the etf goes out and looks at market capitalization and does due diligence on the financial relationships of the company. a lot of the companies are shares trading in hong kong or maybe even in singapore as well as adrs. so there's due diligence behind some of the listings that happened. small cap investment in china, there are risks. volatility as you know, mr. ambassador, but over the long term, higher returns. >> thanks for coming on. railroads a great economic barometer. are there enough rail companies out there to create an etf? >> we're looking at it. from the diversification standpoint, there's related companies that may be closely correlated to railroads that may be worth mentioning. an etf. railroads are something that we are looking at. >> christian, gra et to speak with you. christian lagoon coming to us.

stocks that are making move this is week. time for the weekly edition. the drops were down across the board. >> usually down with the markets down. hitting excessively hard this week was the fear of some regulation to inhibit or dry up completely. i don't know. >> depends on your political wish. a drop here with 35% on the week. >> they drop to the eyes before the stocks -- they're pushing the government still for $255 million in bonuses for the guys who did this and put it on the watch. i think it's absurd. >> joe? oh. >> google -- nothing to worry about. reality is, listen, stealing market sre, windows 7 is coming. melissa, i got back in today. which means it's going lower. >> drop here for stocks down 16% on the week, guys.

>> they were down 4.4%. down 11%. this stock has rallied 170% off of the 52-week low. huge interest. i wouldn't know it. if it gets to $3.50, you can grab it. >> you get a pop here for di dieting monkeys. new study on monkeys by simply dieting ones life stan can be prolonged and disease prevented. taken by 35% and other negative effects of aging can be delayed. it's the closest cousin in the monkey family. >> you had to do a study to figure that out. >> you want to reduce your coloric intake. >> i don't think it's the same monkey. >> let's move on here. we're up 12% on the week now, karen. >> some good results for them. nice week. maybe more to come. >> very good. >> first solar was down 7%. tim? >> despite the fact it's a

section that's making money when oil is going down 15% in the week. you know what's going to happen to solar. >> a pop here from carl west auto body. cnbc's funny biz blog writer reports that the autobody repair shop in danville, california has a new ad campaign featuring none other than steve wozniak who is the man behind the apple computer. he's a customer of the company's toyota dealership riding a segue and dancing. i don't know if that will be good for business or bad for business. >> is he not the cowardly lion? check out "wizard of oz." >> my, god. coming up, why are these guys hanging around? why are they hanging around? there we go. they're waiting for joe's stock of the day. we break down why the energy stock is poised to go higher even as oil heads wer. a legal lf bag can hold. room for balls tees,

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it is time to reveal the stock of the day. joe, what are you watching? >> whether you're a deep water driller, the key is to weather the storm. transocean, 200-day moving average, 66.5. look at the fundamentals of this

deep water driller. the best leverage in the space. what are we doing? we talked about balance sheet. they're cleaning up the balance sheet, reducing costs, raising cash. the second half of the year, you might see a share buyback. weather the sell in oil. transocean, great way to get exposure to energy. i bet you the hedge fund community is looking good as well. >> one of the best plays of this week. take a look. as the rally came to a screeching halt and investors wondered, where have all of the green shoots gone, our traders try to keep you quicker than the ticker. >> good stock of the day is yum, yum brands, the owner of kfc and pizza hut. here's why we like yum brands. play the growth of the emerging markets. the middle class around the world. >> the chairwoman putting her money where her mouth is literally. yum jumped 7%.

>> we liked the engine on the desk for a very, very long time. amgen is a great stock, a great stock you want to own. >> the liquidator betting big on this biotech name as the company's key experimental drug beat out a rival in the test. shares got a shot in the arm soaring 14%. >> products moved from 117 to 87 is within 5% of being terribly attractive. i think fertilizer is important in this growing cycle. those are two names, potash i would be buying. >> the ambassador believing fertilizer would play a role. despite lowering the second quarter outlook, the stock rallied 7% adds prices climbed. >> if they can get through the little hiccup that we're going through now, jefferies sets up very well for the new wall street. >> back in march, the negotiator making a bet on the future of wall street. the boutique bank's first quarter blew back estimates sending the stock up 120%. but the turn-by-turn trade

didn't stop there. >> jeffries went up 22 today. that's the stock that i think's gotten ahead of itself. it continues to move higher. there's something clearly going on there. i don't think you can initiate long here. >> as the rally stalled, jeffries fell, 16%. leaving us with two words that sum it up, "fast money." and going from the best to the worst, time for fast fire. we drill our traders on calls gone cold. first victim -- july 1, the negotiator. telling you to avoid this defense name. >> mine resistant ambush protected all terrain vehicles. they got a big contract from the army. this was a $4 stock in march, $18 now which is taking quick profits in this. quickly. >> after being awarded a military contract worth millions, it soared 16%. >> great story. kiplinger put a $30 price

target. it's hard for me to embrace it. i apologize if you got out of this early. my bad. i can't chase this name here. >> july 1, ambassador recommending this industrial name. >> if there are opportunities in information infrastructure and technology and everything that's related to both here and around the world, ge is as well positioned as anybody. i think it looks attractive and it has underperformed. >> ge took a big hit, dropping on 10% on the news. >> parent of our network of course. absolutely. they report next week which is what i was looking alt. wrong on the timing, i believe. >> so the liquidator sticking to this wireless trade. >> here's the story with risk. we spoke about it last week. i sold some calls against it. a pull back in rim, you have to be a byner this stock. goes down, $74, you have to buy it. >> it tumbled 17%. investors took profits.

>> the pullback in rim was much more than i thought it would be. it had to do with mean reversion, the s&p coming off. rim was owned. where it is in the 60s, you have to buy it. the replacement rates at rim last quarter came in at 18%. this quarter they came in at 30%. this week, we talked about the nice intra day reversal. i would own rim at 65. >> last but not least, the chairwoman looking at the left for dead retailer. >> i sort of think that radio shack is an interesting play here. the stock is up from the bottom. it goes up off of the balance sheet in good shape. introduction of new phones. they have a great relationship. this could be a little pump for radio shack. >> the stock stumbled 10%. >> you know, the thesis was that i thought it was going to be a less risky way to play the palm play. and we've seen mixed things the last few days in palm prix. it's not right. coming up next, the options

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time now for "trading after dark." it kicks to high gear next week and the slew of names are set to report. with us now, scott nations of nations shares, an options actions contributor. joins us on the floor of the cme. great to see you. you're focusing on intel? >> we are. as you said, options traders are looking to next tuesday. that's when earnings seasons starts for the options traders

where we have intel and goldman sachs. it's the sexy name, the thoroughbred. rejects from the petting zoo. intel will be important. had a lot of problems with the supply chain and invep conciliatory. that's when -- >> what's the train stop. >> that's where we'll get the bigger news. >> how are they -- how are the traders positionings themselveses? >> intel looks like it's set up for a 5% move on earnings. that's less than last year. we're not going to fight next year's battles. >> see you later on options action here at 11:30 p.m. here on cnbc. our final trade is the first winning move mday morning. don't go away. we'lhave it for you right after this. (announcer) we speak.

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or go to our website. i'll see you at 3:00! announcer: captioned telephone - enjoy the phone again! podash, get in. >> what about joe? >> love technology. qualcomm. thanks for watching. fast money replay followed by options action. see you back here monday at 5:00 p.m. on cnbc. ha a great weekend. could soe toss me an evesixteenths wrench ovehere? here you go. eleven sixenths... (announcer) fr designing some of the wod's cleanest and most fuel-efficien jet engines... to building more wind turbines than anyone in the country... the people of ge are workg together... than!

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