banks likely in the spotlight tomorrow. join us on "closing bell." good night. have a wonderful evening. @ this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq mar set site in new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. these are the fast money traders. stocks making a rebound from the lows of late afternoon, but traders couldn't take their eyes off the oil trade which lost 4% today and another steep decline. can the market really rally without crude? time for the word on the street. let's go straight to the heart of the action. bring in a liquidator who's trading oil right now. we had a close in new york tradi trading, but it's still trading low. joe, characterize what the session looks like right now. >> i think this has been a wild four or five days in the oil market. it's been the liquidation of the reflags trade.

that's what we're seeing going on. the question becomes, is that over right now? it started last week when we had unauthorized trading. you had run up the price of oil above last year's high. what you're seeing right now is stability. stability back in the oil trade. and, again, it comes down to a question of what do you do now? do you go with this and play from the short side, or do you actually look for certain things in the energy sector to actually get long again? >> joe, what are you doing right now? >> right now i am closing out some positions that i had on later in the afternoon. i actually got a little bit long today, melissa. i think that was actually the trade. it worked well. most of the lower priced action was overnight. that's what you're seeing right now. when you came in after 9:30, oil really modestly rose throughout the day. what you also saw today -- you're seeing this now. you saw the s&ps rise. and we've also spoken about the dollar a lot. i've suggested the dollar as a vehicle to play as a hedge against everything rolling over. i've gotten out of my dollar trade. it looks like the dollar now

looks a little bit heavy. >> joe, two things. how much was the oil trade down? you saw it two times more down than brent. which i think is really the benchmark. the u.s. overall, how important was that today? >> i don't think the usl roll was as significant as it has been in prior months. really what happened, timmy, was the overnight trade was so overwhelming. oil opened up a dollar lower based on when it went out on friday. we had the holiday on friday. opened up a dollar lower today, and then you had significant selling throughout the night. you had to stay up last night. i stayed up all night watching it. they were selling it overnight, overnight, overnight aggressively. that selling was coming from overseas. once we opened domestically in america and the futures selling, you didn't see the open we saw overnight. looks like people got out overnight. >> we'll check with you later on in the show and see how your trading strategy is pulling through. let's go to the chart right now.

s&p in oil trading in tandem last month. actually, it's a long history of trading in tandem. who is leading this market? >> i think for the most part we'd all agree that crude oil going down is going to be good for the consumer. i don't think crude oil is going to go a lot lower myself. i saw a lot of speculation of buying out of the money calls in hk, petrol hawk. i am long in that name. >> the oih is well overdone. we started covering some shorts today. i actually think is a place you start to get back in. i repeat the fact that cheap oil is cheaper petrol dollars to drill again. the oih, probably the highest beta to the sector. i think this market can rally with the oil. i think today's ism day that this morning nonmanufacturing was very important. a 47 print was very positive on the upside. the order is part of the index. i think there's strength in the economy not for $75 oil, but certainly for $60 oil.

that's where the market should be. >> at what point does it catch up? at what point does the market see, yes, this is a catalyst for the consumer. >> i don't think that's what it is. >> i think it's a proxy for economic health. if we don't see an economic recovery and that's why oil trades lower, that's probably not a good thing for the consumer. higher unemployment, less growth, less dollars to spend for the consumer. >> i'm not so convinced this oil market is going to bounce. i wasn't so impressed with the actions today. the fact is it was down all day and stayed down. we said it was going to 63, basically getting close to it now. we'll see if it bounces. frankly, i don't think we are. i think the double comps we talked about last week will still hold up. if we have an update tomorrow, that's fine. but i think the trend in oil is lower. >> i agree. our friend tom mcclellan said the nice thing. the guy's got an oscillator named after him, the mcclellan oscillat oscillator, and tom e-mailed me after the halftime report today.

>> i wish i had my own oscillator. >> here's the melissa lee oscillator. we're going to see a bottom for crude oil in the epd of july, beginning of august. be very short term for this. it's like dance steps. john, you've got long legs. you're going to be dancing in smaller steps than the lovely karen finerman here, and for that reason, it leads for about four months, just like i would try to lead karen. >> we all know how that would work. >> we see the bottom of crude oil in august. zblend of july, early august is when he's predicting we'll see a bottom in crude oil. i'm looking for the same thing. as a trade, like joe said, you can buy it on big $3 drops like today, but i think you get out very quickly. i don't think we have a longer term bottom until that happens. >> stocks rebounding last half hour of trading on the heels of several defensive categories. dow closing the day higher by 44 points, helped by shares of merck and procter & gamble. also some very interesting trading in general mills. general mills came out last week

and raised its fiscal year forecast and traded higher on thursday. >> the thing about general mills, we talked about them last week. $60 was the high back in february, a lot of trouble there. right around now 59 1/2. general mills did great things. they basically said the same thing on june 7th raising guidance. they didn't tell you anything you shouldn't have known a month ago. i like general mills. it's a nice valuation. it's had a great run. 60 has been resistant. i think that would continue to be resistant. i would get bullish to close above 60, but i don't think that's going to happen. >> it seems that's the area of the market that is going to hold up. >> we talk about names like walmart, p&g, kraft. those are going to be similar to general mills. i want to be in that state. it is defensive, and it has not run up nearly as much as some of the other names that i think are expensive now, especially if we're going to see the sideways market for a while and a consumer that is uncertain. >> trade in that space which is more a spinoff even of the commodities base.

rio tinto's packaging unit is being bought by bms. they're up 5% today. consumer packaginpackaging, a l these food stuffs packaged by general mills, that's a good place to be. >> we're seeing it on the equity side but also seeing an expansion in the vix. consumers are getting a little more defensive when it comes to buying protection. >> that's what they were doing this morning because they sold it off too hard leading into the long independence day holiday. what i mean, of course, folks is people know we're going to have three days when we don't trade, friday, saturday, sunday. they priced in a monday date and didn't know crude was going to be down $3 and would pull the s&p and dow down with it. because of that, the spot price of the vix, the panic hit this morning. we did not see a move in the futures. in fact, the futures were lower going into the end of the day, and they were never up very much. what does that tell you? it was just a one day or two day event, spike in the vix, and we're coming right back down

settling in. we will be in the high 20s to low 20s. >> what is that telling snu the market is not too concerned about earnings here? in other words, we got to a place where the vix signals were almost saying sell. we've come too far too fast. you're telling me you think it's going lower, but you're telling you you think the market is going higher. >> alcoa is going to be a crap show when it comes out with its earnings. who is the big buyer of what they're selling right now? aircraft primarily, and who's building a lot of airplanes right now? nobody. for that reason, i think you're going to see -- >> boeing is trying. it's just not the way they hoped. >> they're trying. they can't get the thing off the ground. i say you wait two weeks from now because that's when the more telling earnings are going to beette hitting. that's when i'd be more judgmental on the quarter. >> we're checking on both sides of the options market. names that are actually long calls. somebody like petrobras, we're buying puts. this tells me i think guys are

still very nervous. guys are looking to buy protection. maybe they want to get longer on the down side. >> i agree they do want to buy protection, and they are buying protection right now. that's why they pushed up the spot. they're not buying the futures. >> alcoa to me, we talked about it last week, the aluminum market being oversupplied. aluminum doesn't go away. it takes a long time to diminish inventories. i'm not optimistic about alcoa's earnings. when i say 8, i think down to 8.5. then it gets interesting. other than that, i'd stay away. >> next trade here, tess cannot fight higher today. one-time performer closing to the down side. shares of microsoft, intel, apple, all closing lower today. >> intel, 92.5 million shares, traded up to $17.31. i remember saying time to get out. it overshot on the up side. it did. i still think the range of intel

down to 15.75 is your new bottom. used to be 15. i do own intel. i think it trades lower. you had may semi sales for $3.5 billion. it was up 5.5% month over month. good news. you know what, these stocks, people have been running to them and throwing money at them. i think they're a little too early. i think they've pulled back. >> i think i agree. you actually have a trade back. the nad diamondback bounced back up. this leadership was lost, and we've taken a lot back. a couple of names, microsoft, and we showed the chart, is a name where people are fundamentally getting excited going into the earnings season. with mr. softy, i would take an opportunity to buy it on the weakness. i don't think tech is done. i think it's your bellweather to follow the risk trade. >> what are you doing with microsoft, karen, these days? >> just regretting that i ever heard the ticker. we're not doing anything with microsoft. we do have a cisco position that

eked out a couple of pennies. i still think it's attractive. it hasn't moved much at all in the last six weeks or so. i think it's attractive. i think the risk/reward, they have a ton of cash. i would be a buyer here. >> dell today getting the benefit of a positive note out of sanford bernstein. also, we have ibm about $100 a share. >> close to $100.80. we said $100 is its value. they told you what they're going to make not only 2010 but 2011. we talked about it. a fair multiple for these guys puts you at $120 stock. i believe that although on a lousy tape they're clearly going to overperform. i like ibm. benign tapes, the stock goes back to 105. >> shares of the credit card names, american express leaving the group higher. upgrading stocks from hold to sell. saying the stock would be affected by new regulations that essentially caps increasing the credit cards rates that companies charge because they demand of their customers that

customers pay in full. that has been out for quite some time. still got a bump higher on american express. >> you look at master trust, charge-offs, 10.4%, april 9.9%, march, 9.7%. that's trending the wrong way for american express. they trended less than visa but much more expensive than massacre card. mastercard got down to $1.55 a few weeks ago. i'd rather own mastercard than american express. >> banch of america has tremendous exposure. credit suisse with a good note out today pointed out that bank of america is up 10.6% in their credit card debt. they will be writing them off. this is actually a trend that's not improving. going into third and fourth quarters there's additional concern these numbers get worse. this is your problem for bank of america, for jp morgan for credit. these are the place that's they're the most exposed. i do think that capital one --

again, who are the guys whose business has been made on credit cards? capital one is probably front of that list. >> later on in the show, we'll tell you which wall street whale made $177 million on that amex upgrade. first, a look at discover shares falling after hours. it did announce after hours it would offer $500 million in stock. we did see the after hours dip. any buyers? seems like a good time to go out on the market for the credit card companies. of late, they haven't been doing too badly. >> this isn't my favorite name. to me, they're a distant third. i'd rather go with the cream of the crop, either mastercard or visa or american express. i'm not sure why they're raising the money. they wanted to give back t.a.r.p. funds. i'm not clear. to me it's an also ran. >> i'm with you. i like visa better, pick of the litter. mastercard is number two. capital one would be the bottom of my list. >> another area working today,

consumer staples, procter & gamble, clark, colgate all closing higher. consumers looking to get a bit more defensive here. do we like these names? >> a lot of news out of russia, we heard about kraft last week and pepsi and some of these guys. there's growth in emerging markets, a place for a con suler base that a lot of these guys haven't tapped. the big issue for these guys is not only doing business on the ground in china and russia, but building out distribution networks, which is a big part of the logistics chain. i worry about that for people like pepsi and coke as they're trying to grow in places like russia. however, it's a very positive play, and i'd be buying coke on this play because of their growth in eastern europe and latin america. >> in terms of growth interin thely. yum brand is what we talked about. look at the stock today, $35, up 1.5%. that's a great day on a pretty benign tape. i still like yum. that trends upwards of 40. i like yum. >> next trade here, trading the globe. obama is in russia.

timmy made reference to this. companies making big stakes in that country. pepsi announcing a $1 billion investment in a bottling plant. interestingly, because companies are investing in plants over there, it doesn't necessarily reflect the realities of investing in the stock market. william browder of hermitage capital, which is a big investor in russia today, on "power lunch" saying he'd rather be in stocks in places like russia, but he doubts these companies, because if you invest $1 billion in the plant, you can't sell the plant. it's a liquid investment. >> he's done well in russia, but i wouldn't use him as the benchmark. but doing business on the ground in russia is tough. these announcements by coke and pepsi, these are clearly coinciding with the visit out there. two leaders that have ascended to the throne, replacing two leaders that didn't want to work together. and we're more concerned about the domestic constituency than working things out internationally.

the most important thing is the mutual destruction that we all at least attempted to set up in the '80s is going away. these guys are making progress on nuclear deproliferation. that's very positive. probably bad news for uranium producers. if you're trying to stretch a trade, ccj, some of the big uranium producers, know there's going to be a limited amount of uranium production and going to be controlled. today was good news for people that want to see us having sensible dialogue with russia. i believe obama is doing that. i don't think there's great trades. >> it's a story going forward. it's not a story right now. they actually have less business with us, as you heard perhaps on "squawk" this morning than with poland. less back and forth with russia, which is 20 times the size, at least 10 times the size of poland. for that reason, it's a growth story going forward. it's p happening yet. >> let's go back to the story of the day. commodities getting kicked. u.s. steel, alcoa, down more than 9%.

dennis of the gartman letter joins us from virginia beach. always great to talk to you. >> good to be here. >> did you use this ss a buying opportunity for the commodities? >> no, i was using last week as a position to reduce my positions on crude oil. i had been long on the high beta stocks and short on the low betas. that was the oil trade. that was the bullish commodity trade. i've been trying to get out of that since last week when they had the outside reversal. as we went to new highs, it began to widen. all signs that the commodity market was getting well overdone and likely to correct. even i have to say i'm surprised by the seriousness and the viciousness of the correction. is it a buying opportunity? i don't think so. >> what are you looking for in terms of a bottom here in the commodities base? we had a chart of gold being leader in terms of where the bottom might be. which places the low for oil at the end of july, beginning of august. what do you use? >> gold is as good as any. right now, everybody you know is

bullish on the gold market. the idea of inflation coming back has gotten everybody involved. the conspiratorialists are out there buying gold. gold, i think, acts rather poorly. i had been bullish for gold for a long period of time, but i have no position on it. if you made me do something, i'd sell it. i'd rather leave gold alone. right now it looks like it wants to go lower. >> quick question. in oil, would you be looking for a specific dollar mark, or will you be looking for a change in sentiment that would make you decide to get long or get shorter? >> i think we can take gold down to 880, 875, just enough to make everybody angry. >> and for oil? >> for oil? markets have a way of going to what i call the obscene number, the number that nobody believes possible. i guess i really wouldn't be surpriseded if we put a five number up as the big number, just enough to make everybody upset. just as we got above 75 last week on an mistake, on an error we find out now drove it above

$75. i bet you put $59 up there just to do it, just to make everybody angry. >> dennis, that guy i was quoting from earlier, you know him, of course, tom mcclellan, mcclellan oscillator. he was the one saying gold proceeds crude by about four months. he was looking at time and not price. you've just kind of given us a price. maybe we can get a washout in the high 50s before we get back to buying it again. >> i wouldn't be surprised if that that's what happens. watch what goes on in the term structure. watch the term structure. watch the relationship from one month to the next in the crude oil market. if we're starting to go weaker to the bottom and all of a sudden the term structure starts to narrow, that will be the signal to start to be a buyer. my guess is we'll get down in the other 50s just to do it. >> alcoa reporting tomorrow. what are you doing with your position at this point? >> i still own a bunch of alcoa. i wrote calls against it last week. i'm glad i wrote some calls. i wish i'd thrown the whole thing overboard.

i think we're going to see awful earnings. alcoa has given us bad earnings the last several quarters. we're going to get bad earnings again. i still own some, but i've reduced my position dramatically by selling calls. >> coming up, we're breaking down ways to profit from corn. you heard me right, corn. how big media is starting to get in on the action. and a second half recovery in america, not so fast. this man is about to give you the foreign trade from emerging markets on the fast track to recovery. >> even the administration admits it. the recession is worse than we thought. while the u.s. economy struggles for footing, "fast money" trades the globe for countries on the fast track to recovery. and want to trade like the big boys? a money manager is the hot hand on how he's staying on top of this volatile market. plus it might be too risque for some, but a $13 billion industry is too hard to ignore. here's how to get behind the porn trade. when americpost market show

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here? we've got news for you. the u.s. isn't the only place to make money. all this week, the global stimulus plans that are working so you can ditch the hometown blues. mike gerka is a global and power strategist in international funds. mike, what market is about to explode? >> explaining it's not all about us, bustamante not about the u.s. but the dynamic of our environment is you can invest abroad and do it any time you want. at the same time, you have to use good common sense to see where the advantages are right now. for much the same reasons that we saw earlier this quarter as we started to unfold into the summer, i think taiwan and southeast asia is a very good place. not only are you getting great demand right now but technology is king over there. from a price perspective, we know wages are low, profits are high, and right now we're seeing huge allocations into that part of the globe. >> what is it specifically for taiwan and southeast asia? are they feeling any benefits from the effectiveness of

china's system lus plan? >> you hit the nail on the head there. what happens is you get the back draft from china with taiwan. there's such a close assimilation between the two countries, but yet if you want to look at tax structures or at least how the market dynamic of small cap companies becoming very large overnight or at least getting in-flows into capital into those firms right now is such an advantage. >> isn't this, though, heavy reliance on china for a stimulus package that a lot of people think is money going straight from the banks into the market. if china falls down and and isn't real -- i don't think china is a mirage, but i think this growth is temporary. i worry about taiwan. we'll see what happens with tech here. >> i think it stands alone right now. it's a very good point. we know what an important dynamic china has in that environment. for the same reasons, i think on a daily, quarterly, monthly basis, however you look at it, taiwan is starting to stand on its own. it gets the back draft of china, but it still has the conglomerate of these companies together as a basket.

it's very exciting in technogyñ right now. i think that's where the doldrums hit on the hardware side here, or some of the microsofts of the world and who they're doing business with. what happens is you're starting to see one focalization of where this money is start to go go. >> is it just tech and taiwan you like? >> i'm keeping it to tech ough now. the reason why is you start looking at se of these return, just on the basket, on the index itself and how they've done this year, you think, man, this has really topped off. much like the commodity play you were talking about, i don't see that. i see more follow through and independence. that's what it comes down to. >> mike, just quickly on south africa, you mentioned the commodity play getting tapped out. if you were a believer of that and looked at the fundamentals of south african economy, unemployment in double digit rate, what is the thesis in investing there? it seems like it's downhill. >> the last indoor recession and is not the brightest of futures. maybe the smallest midget in the parade or the fiasco, but the point is what you're seeing with

south africa is they have more than just mining out there. i think what i'm seeing right now is an allocation of actuallñ a continent.ñ you're looking at who's the leader right now. what happens is from an infrastructure play there's a lot of american companies that want to geographically distribute out of this area, and at the same time they see where the dynamic of where they can go from. i think the outrage just alone into asia, north up into europe, and of course the amount of money coming in from the united states on these etfs is really being beneficial on the return. again, there's a big difference between how the stock markets are doing and the economies are doing. >> got it. mike, great to have you with us. time for rising star. each week "fast money" picks a small cap stock that might be poised to break out. this week, karen, who, as you know, a mother of four, looking at a retail name near and dear to her heart. perhaps you bought a few outfits at this place. >> i have. i don't have a lot in retail space, but this is a name that i

do, and this is children's place. the reason i like it is i love their target customer. it's a mother. mothers are loathe to cut out spending for their kids, especially where it's a value proposition like children's place provides. they have a $730 million market cap, and they'red traying at about ten times earnings, which is very attractively priced. in addition to that ten times earnings, they have a fantastic balance sheet. $6 a share of net cash. so this is -- there's no leverage at all obviously. it's a great balance sheet. excellent cash flow. and the valuation here is good, but there's a couple other things that make it interesting as well. the ex-ceo ezra java, he and his group have 22% of the stock. he is a director on the board as it his father in law, i believe. he is putting forth a slate at the july 31st annual meeting to replace three directors with three of his own. if, in fact, he does win, then he will have five seats out of nine. i know he would like to change management. the company did see some of

their best growth under his direction although i don't believe he's going to be ceo. to me, the risk/reward seems very attractive. i don't see a ton of down side. it hasn't moved up a lot with some of the specialty retailers. and you have potential for a catalyst here. the one thing i would buy, i think you could buy it at this level here. i think thursday you're going to see same-store sales. they might not be great. that's okay. that would give an opportunity to buy some more. plce is the ticker, children's place. >> time for a fast forecast where meteorology meets the market. our investor tells you whether to break out the umbrella this week. >> hi, melissa. blue chip day in new york city weather-wise. however, that's not the case in the u.s. equity market. we've been in an eight-week consolidation. we're turning over even more as of last thursday and today. my fear is we go from a cloudy weather condition to full out rain storm if we close below

874. we need to hold that level. turning to crude oil, i have a mixture of sun and clouds at this point. we are turning over a little bit. we've traded down $9 a barrel in the last week and a half. really following the coattails of the equity market. very good support at the $85 level. i don't expect crude to get below that. we could stay between the $68 and $58 level the next few weeks. nikkei index, you can see the nice ski slope coming down here, 10,500 resistance traders, came right up to it a week ago, we backed off. i still think 8,800 holds its support, but you could fill between those two levels. let's take a look at the recap. s&p 500, still price pressure, cloudiness. not a full rain storm until we get before 874 on a close basis. crude oil, still clouding the picture. not a rain storm until we get back below $62 a barrel.

nikkei, more backing and filling. i think the market ranges between that 8800 level and 9500 for the next few weeks. >> cloudy s&p, partly cloudy oil, partly cloudy the nikkei. tim, what do you see for the nikkei? partly cloudy? partly sunny? >> partly cloudy. again, it's a glass -- that would be a glass half empty. i'll call it partly sunny. the nikkei has probably outperformed the last couple of weeks. ewj is a great way to get exposure if you're looking to buy the nikkei. i do see more risk if we see the dollar unwinding. that kills the japanese exporters. this is still a huge export market. last week, the tan kan survey which is japan's state of the economic union was not necessarily bullish. they haven't turned the corner. they need g3 growth, and they are the big two in g3. they're not there yet. >> there you have it. coming up next, don't get angry, get guy adami's stock of the day. there he is.

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trader radar tonight, footlocker. the nation's largest retailer of athletic footwear was one of the most active names on the nyse today. we are back. welcome back to "fast money." we've got a big second half for you tonight. two stocks on the dow that could have made your money today. one is the fast slash, and the other one helped wall street whale earned 1$175 million in just a few hours. we'll tell whau the trade is. plus trading after dark. oil continuing to move post market. j.t., the liquidator has not left the screen. he's watching one trade he's making now. and the porn trade. you may be tempted blush, but we

aren't, and corporate america isn't either. they are making a killing off it. i'll tell you how you can as well. oil is rising. feeling like you're missing the rally? you're not alone. guy has the solution. it is the stock of the day. guy, what is it? >> thanks, melissa. >> you're welcome, guy. >> june 11th, slumberger. i said look for a pullback, you got it. just as the stock will overshoot on the up side, it will overshoot on the down side. 52-week low of 35.50 basically. a correction that i just told you about is 49.50. i think we'll get there, and you want to gobble up schlumberger at those levels. this is a stock that's now down some 20% in the last couple of weeks. shouldn't be down here. i think they're going to overshoot. $49.50, you buy it.

>> karen, this is a name you like? >> i don't have this particular one. we have rigg. but i like the oah. as far as where it goes on the short term, i don't know. >> this is one of the best short terms over the last few weeks. i go with guy. get back in. >> time now for today's edition of pops and drops. pop for data domain. >> that's an old fashioned bidding war. emc upping their bid. i don't know if this will be the last bid we'll see. i'm not a buyer here. >> sensec down 3%. >> probably close to 8%. they're going to drop a lot of this growth. up to 10% of gdp, not very good. earnings still positive in india. >> drop for u.s. steel, down 6%. guy?

>> is it a run-up of function of demand or a function of speculation? inventories in steel make you believe it's speculation. i think it has room on the down side, maybe 29. but u.s. steel gets attractive below 30. >> pop for dendrion. it was up for the session. >> had a target of $50 on the stock. provenge is prostate cancer treatment. people wishing they bought it, not only investors but companies like glaxosmithkline and bristol myers. i think it does get bought by year end. that $50 target is a good one. >> pop up 3% for nextel. >> hopefully, the s.e.c., which is contemplating a meager upgrade of broadband will include sprint nextel products. >> with a lot of fertilizer makers, mosaic down 3%. >> these guys will be getting a big look. g8 will talk about farming

rather than donating food. let's grow the stuff. very good for ag. >> drop for solar, which was down 10%. >> the johnson move last week was ldk solar on thursday at $4.20 lowering guidance thinking no one would see it over the weekend. wrong. down 10%. should have done worse. i like elsr much better. >> the johnson move. >> thad what i said, the johnson move. >> horse race still coming. drop here for regis, down 21%. dr. j, i don't know they would give you this one. >> i don't know why they gave me this one either, except they are the parent company of hair club for men. as you can see, i'm not a member, never have been a member, don't plan on being a member. apparently a lot of people have made that decision as well. earnings down 4%, and they're refinancing. stock down 20% today. >> you took it better than pete would have taken it. >> pete might have done the flip over. >> how do we know the goatee is

not an implant. >> thatted can be. >> just kidding. it's a very good looking goatee. >> i feel a picked on coming. >> if i prick, why not bleed? joey chestnut. you know who joey chestnut is? he's a hot dog eater. this holiday weekend. >> it's carried on sportcenter. this is ridiculous. >> competitive eating is a sport. this weekend, joey chestnut, the 23-year-old from san jose, california, set a world record at nathan's famous fourth of july international hot dog eating contest on saturday, stuffing down 68 hot dogs in ten minutes, beating out his rival kobayashi for a fourth year in a row. both of them are fairly skinny too, oddly. >> kobayashi used to be undefeatable. not so anymore. >> not so anymore. >> he got caught up in the fame and glory of it all. >> apparently, he leaked out that secret sauce that goldman's been using. >> coming up next, what you've all been waiting for.

the porn trade. is there a way to profit from this recession proof -- supposedly recession proof, $13 billion a year business in the united states alone. plus the dow component that's rallied 5% in the last month. the overall market has fallen 5%. why is this name working? is it too late to get in? stick around, we'll tell you. finally, good news for peo2 diabes or at risk for diabete introducing new nutrisystem the

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welcome back to "fast money." time to reveal the fast slash. we are talking about merck moving almost 3% on today's session on basically no news. set to hit a three month high over the past month. it's traded up 3% while the s&p 500 has been down by just about 5%. why the sudden love affair with merck, john? >> why the sudden love affair with merck? i really couldn't tell you. >> caught you a little off guard there. >> like you say, defense, consumer staples, healthcare, big pharma. those are areas you want to concentrate on. those are the reasons i have for merck here. >> valuation caught up to it. merck is fairly high valued. it's had a nice move. i think you take values on me k

merck. i would reevaluate it on a closed book 8.50. >> whatever business you're talking about, a simple rule always applies, supply and demand. as long as there's a market for sex out there, there will be an appetite for porn. we are at the porn trade right now. we've got to show you how corporate america is also trying to cash in. even from times from antiquity, the enjoyment of adult entertainment has had a fervent following. while the passage of time hasn't dimmed the controversy, these days the porn business is as mainstream as must see tv. with about $13 billion on the line, you can't blame corporate america for looking for a piece of the action. one sector looking to capitalize on a steady stream of income, cable and satellite tv operators. from on demand offerings to hd channel selection, big media is capitalizing on the after hours action. with erratic hits accessible at the touch of a button, cable and

satellite operators are hitting the sweet spot. with a bountiful selection of free content on the internet, will the pay for porn providers see a letdown where it counts. here's your best ways to play the porn trade. all right. there are very few figures out there because a lot of the companies that operate in this world are privately held and a lot of the publicly tradeded companies are not forthcoming with their numbers. but we do know it is a $13 billion industry in the united states. nearly $100 billion globally. a lot of that is in in room entertainment, for instance, through these cable companies. pay per view. >> in room entertainment? >> that's what it's called. >> bigger than legitimate. >> more money is made from in room entertainment than is made from mini bars. and the mini bar was basically one of the things that helped them get through some of the tough times. now they've got both those to draw from. most of the chains offer it.

>> they go together. a couple of hits at the mini bar, and you could find yourself with in room entertainment. >> for the cable companies, just to turn this into a serious business conversation because this is a serious business out there. it's at the cross-section of mainstream culture as well as big profits. and we're talking about pornography. the cable companies specifically, not only do they get the play from the pay per view, but also they're providers of broadband service. they've also got that increased revenue from people who are seeking to download porn. there certainly is a lot of free porn out there, isn't there, guy? >> i don't know. that was a loaded question. in terms of in room entertainment, buy a back gammon set, folks. it's much more interesting. i think cable vision frankly is probably the best company out there. it pains me to say it. having trouble at the 19 level. this was the level that broke down back in october. they have a lot of things going for them. frankly, it's a great company. it's not as well-run as they'd like it to be. they spin off madison square garden, you might see a pop in the stock. i like cable vision above 19.

otherwise, you buy it at 16.5. >> from dot comes to smartphones, we'll continue this discussion. >> i have one more. >> absolutely. always. >> netflix. can you get porn on netflix? >> actually, i do not know. >> i know blockbuster had taken away porn or never had it maybe. >> interestingly, we are seeing the reverse, where we're seeing big student yoeios out there re bic budget porn movies and stripping out the sex to make different versions to further monetize what they shot. for instance, we have r-rated version ins blockbusters. >> is that still porn? >> i don't know if you consider it porn, but it's from a porn studio. we'll continue the discussion as we take a look at the industry from smartphone makers to dot com, take a look at how they're capitalizing on porn. which leads up to my documentary, "porn business of pleasure," wednesday, july 15th, 9:00 p.m. eastern time. do not go anywhere.

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time now for trading after dark. joe terranova following the tick by tick in oil after the clock. he's following the day's biggest mover as it continues to fluctuate in the market as oil does trade around the world. joe, what's the trade you're putting on right now? >> i think it's important to focus on the overnight activity. over the last four or five sessions, the overnight trading ranges have been larger by a two to one ratio than the day trading. you heard dennis gartman talk about it. and the mcclellan indicator. everyone is talking about the low beta versus the high beta. they have been long the high beta and short the low beta trades. what you need to do is get long. play from the long side, the low beta trades. take a look at petrobras. look at what they did today. take a look at the interday chart of that. take a look at hess. they both were supportive throughout the day and closed near those highs. those are the ways you want to play it now. avoid the high beta names, avoid the oil futures, exposure

through the uso. look at the integrated low beta plays, and that's what you look at now in terms of playing energy from the long side. >> i just want to point out. joe, i disagree. i think petrobras is an extremely high beta story. i also think that petrobras is a high risk under the discovery that drove a lot of returns. i'd be cautious. >> takes two to trade. joe terranova, thanks so much. >> coming up next, this trading guru never leaves home without it. today it paid offhandsomely. we'll tell you who made the most money. us the final ade tomorrow morning. we've goit forou. todathere's a way to save more for retirement,

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time to tell you who made the most money today. oracle of omaha taking the top spot as his bet on american express paid off. how big? stock rallied 5%, he made a cool $177 million. ed good for you, oracle. time for the final trade. tim? >> mvt, best seller out there. improving operation margins. great story. zbi? >> yum. >> put my money where my mouth is, children's place. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you back here 12:45 for the

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