will fall 10% and rise about 2%. that's the news now. >> i'm erin burnett. big money at the fdic. the private equities meeting to say let us buy banks. are the nation's banks fixed or do we need this money and now? then a big bet by the american indian seminole tribe on gambling. 600 room, europe's biggest casino, huh garry and the ceo is with us exclusively. as american states get more desperate, they may tax the internet. that is that could hurt us all. the show starts now.

we had been lower and up nearly 5% now. commodities are a big story and oil remains down as it has been through the session and nasdaq and s&p are also low. see if the dow withhold through the gains. find out what names they are focused on. rebecca jarvis is here and we want to start with you. the name you are focusing on is a significant mover. >> up 2.4% and the nasdaq index, the biggest of the big names. two things i want to point out to viewers. maybe not as bad as the previous recession. he said if there was a rebound here, dell stands to benefit and the second thing is there was a customer service survey that came out and outperforming

everybody. when we are down 1.1%, every big name is in the red. >> i know your name is linked to the commodity story and earnings central. >> alcoa is really a good signal for how commodities are doing which isn't well. of course alcoa is the first to kickoff earnings season and some of the important things to think about when we talk about commodities going forward, it's important to note that commodities in many cases have been sought by traders to be a rebound play. a lot of hope and optimism. alcoa is one of the names. what traders and analysts are looking for out of the story is not only a question about pricing. their outlook on where aluminum will go from here will be important, but also demand. the question of demand is not only here in the united states, but demand overseas. where is it come for example and

is it rebounding and can we trust it in the second half of the year. one of the things about commodities, we heard from ceos throughout the industry. people are saying it's not coming. the rebound and demand is not coming and it will be an important test to hear from alcoa whether or not they see it in the second half. will the economy pick up or slow down? there is all these different facets of the issues, but if banks are not fixed and ready to lend, we may not have a recovery. as we speak today, many of the biggest names are in washington, trying to find ways to perhaps get the fdic to make it easier to buy banks. they put what they say are

arduous restrictions. is that good or bad? are the banks sick? the senior fellow at the center for american progress. regulation studies at the kato institute. good to have both of you with us. we have an investor joining us and we top the start off with the key question. let me ask it to you first. it's interesting because right now the meeting, we have about 55 minutes left where they are strenuously arguing that the fdic is making it difficult to put capital into banks. it does beg the question as to whether they need that capital or not. >> that's an open question. it hinges to a large degree on the state of the economy. we no longer have the prices we had six months ago, but clearly we have credit quality and there is an issue that's important between the liquidity and the

credit quality. there is some money flowing in the market and investors willing to lend. we don't have to run after every dollar that is willing to be invested in the system. we think that requires and gives policy makers leeway in terms of how they designed the rules on to which money is invested in the banks. with the equity firms week don't want to replace the systemic risk. we have a problem with the private equity firm that they are looking to flip money quickly. that's contrary to what we need and there is a lack on the private equity side. >> that's an interesting thought because by definition we are in this for three to five years. they put restrictions that they invest in banks. propose. >> that's the private equity investors and contrary to what

we need it's counterproductive. we need to have a longer term visual of our financial system. the fdic is not saying they can't come in and they have to come in on certain rules and they are up for discussion. >> are the rules onerous? >> the current rules are, but they are up for discussion. we are talking about loosening them and it's a matter of degree. most of us would agree that having a loosening of some sort, we are not trying to get rid of the rules, but i think it's important to bring private equity into this. if they can be source of capital, that can be worthwhile. i am not convinced if they come in for a short amount of time that they can rebuild a bank and sell it to someone else in better shape? i don't see that as a bad thing. where we disagree is an economic

problem. we have an economic problem and have somebody whoa is willing to come in and play the and the taxpayers are playing and we need long-term investors who are willing to stay with the banks in a strategic partnership for more than a year. >> i want to bring in more of the investors. just so you know his background, he has the top performing fund this year. good to have you with us. you heard the commend there from christian and mark. do the banks need this and are the restrictions such that they get the capital they need and go to the right bank? >> first of all, i think the 19 have close to enough and you can't access the public markets. the private equity is not a factor for them. they are below and some of them need additional capital seriously. the private equity may be one of the only sources out there.

you want to encourage the flow towards the issue and less government intervention and less money. you need rules to be reasonable and i think they are onerous. they are still too strong. there is no clarification if you recapitalize the banks and ipo it. why not? as long as that's it's debt to capital, they need to be outline and commendaried as such, we need to make our comment. >> you have an example of a company and i don't know if you own it now, but you did for a long time and it was one of the best performers. that went through this process in some way before, right? >> people didn't reach out. they raised more money and became public. people have a great example that benefit by the owner restrictions. banks that have kootoo much capl and private equity will drive

the prices higher. we will try to drive the taxpayer with more bidding? >> how do we deal with another problem which is u.s. taxpayer money supposed to go to strong banks. it's hard to determine which was which. no one is alleging a conspiracy, but a lot of weak banks got taxpayer money and may not be able to pay it back. >> that's always going to be the problem. how do you steer the money in the right direction and make sure that it goes to the right place. don't sit on the cash. i think we are learning this is a crisis like any other. you earned it in the past few years and at this point there is no good recipe of how you can make sure the money goes to where it is supposed to.

the government program has done what it's supposed to do. as antoine mentioned, we are getting to the point of the 19 banks that were part of the stress test and they need it to raise money. there is enough capital here for the large ones and that was often the biggest fear that the credit crunch continues or we have a repeat. despite the directional changes, i think we are going in the right direction. >> an ton, first you. mark knows bank of america and cd are in lots of pr o trouble and what is the top five. which one you are holding in the bank. >> bank of america has $40 billion of preearnings capabilities and the ability to with stand any further credit

crunch is strong and they raised a lot of capital. the position is strong and they trade at three to four times normalized earnings. i think it's a great buy here. >> the final word. you say this ppip partnerships, note a lot of demand. you are saying you hope it remains that way and we can't rely on it? >> i think the original play and the guide mer plan was at the backdoor way to build equity and overpaying for assets. some of the restrictions on it will be looking to sell debt unsubsidiz unsubsidized. it has to be minimal and not a plan that would have worked anyhow. >> appreciate you taking the time. let us know what you think. should the fdic be letting firms go into the banking sector without restrictions.

right now the proposed ones and the key ones impose leverage and say if the firm buys into a bank, you have to hold on to that for at least three years. is that something that will help or hurt us? let us know what you think. chicago and new york have nasty weather, but seemed to turn around on the east coast this weekend. did the weather actually impact trade? we have the hidden trade as we look forward and if you are going to build the largest casino in europe, where would you put it? do you know where this is? we will be back.

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now the daily dose of street sense. institutional services director. before we get to your trade, we had a fun thing we wanted to do about the weather. here in new york, average temperature in june is 67 1/2 degrees. that is 3.7 degrees below normal. that's mammoth for grash yers. this is the eighth coolest on

record. the second wettest june on record. 10.06 inches of rain. chicago had a nasty year too. we know all you do is send nasty stuff to us. we had the most precipitation since records started being kept in 1871. you had 25.3 inches of precipitation from january to june. it's not apples to apples, but it sounds like a lot. does the weather have anything to do with trade something. >> it does. the consumer drives the economy and the weather controls the consumer. is it a huge effect? probably not, but how it affects your personal behavior. the golf course is my area and they are drowning. when people are not playing as much golf, the power companies and people are not running air

conditioners because it's cool and wet. it seems to be sill to quantify us with the exact dollar. people are making money and people affect the retailer. my dad used to wear ga loshs. you tried to take a look with the cold here in new york and june. you had interesting correlations. >> and an interesting data point, we saw the second high of difdens in history. 1958 and you guessed it where we had the same miserable weather. this year is 1958, 272

deductions. that was interesting. >> coreration. let's get to the other one. >> we are going to chile. they had a huge surplus from copper exports and they didn't spend it like the other stimulus program as a percentage of gdp. 2.8% of gdp. it's 2.0 in the u.s. and it's money that they had. we couple that with the back to the basics trade and beer comes up on the radar. if the personal budget cuts will be cut, this is a company that parades out of chile and they sell wine and know they chilean wines are gaining in popularity around the world.

they are in this country. they have generous dividends and seems like a solid play. the dollar is stronger and we are seeing a pull back and probably a good time to buy it. >> peter kenny, your hidden trade of the day? >> tao and i tell you why. we have been looking at the unrest and a lot of it has gone under the radar. western part of the country and significant part of the country and a great deal of the trade from central asia to china and russia to china. there will be development left behind in the overall development. a real estate play that speaks specifically and only to china. chinese breathes and under control like hong kong and areas of that nature. a wreath that speaks to a

growing middle class and the fastest growing country in the world. in an area that will see the fastest growth within that. >> thanks very much peter and jim and make sure that's fridays at 11:00. >> today on this monday, cash-starved states and retail giants like amazon on the other. is it time to finally say goodbye to tax-free internet shopping? it is pretty amazing we still have it, but doesn't mean people won't fight to keep it. ever hear of hold on? this sleepy town may be the las vegas of europe. hard rock is big. the ceo is up next to tell us why the indis are betting on rope.

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about to become the hard rock franchise. that's something they own from vegas around the world. they are think a hotel and casino. i'm sure anyone from there is e-mailing. it will be the largest casino in europe. the total investment is more than $6.5 billion. that's a lot of money to invest in casinos right now. why are they doing it? we have the chairman here to complain. the story caught my imagination. why eastern europe and why now? >> europe europe is the government of hungary. they caught a class one license that enabled us to build a true casino. if you are familiar with europe, most are small and more of a laid back environment. we truly want to create an entertainment capital.

>> most of them are not destinations. >> correct. >> you go in and do your thing. >> and i don't know what the right word is. they are not high end. this is the goal to make this into a complex where you have entertainment and hotel and you have spas. >> the world's largest collection memorability and we think this is more than the traditional model. >> what are do you mean? >> we have 72,000 pieces of memorability which is the largest in the world. >> not all of that goes to hungary? >> no. we would have a lot of people upset. >> what i find interesting is many things. one is the fact that you are doing it $6.5 billion over a decade. why austrian partners?

is it that they knew the market better or firms don't have the money and don't want to take the risk? >> it's both. one of the beauties is we partner with people in 52 different countries around the world. our motto is the brand and number two is management and equity investment. because of the relationships you need, it made sense to partner with people who understood the way to do business. >> around the world. you are the chairman of international and there were announcements that they were going to be doing lots of casinos in asia. is all that was on track? >> we opened in the city of dreams so that was a success. we still look at other ventures, but obviously in this economy we look at things more conservatively than when we performed three years ago. >> when we look at gaming around the world and hard rock in vegas, what stands out in terms

of trends? we will have an analyst. >> i think game suggest an international business. once the u.s.-based companies that are so highly regulated can create trust on an interesting basis. that's beneficial for our brand. is that rate of decline or no? we certainly bucked the trend, but no doubt when you look at the leverage that allow the countries that, created a lot of challenges they are going through. >> you don't have the debt? >> no, investment grade for everyone. >> and gaming. kind of an oxymoron. thank you very much. we appreciate it. let's bring in david as promised. club oppenheimer with the trade.

it's great talking to you and the story did catch my imagination because of where they put it and the timing. what's the reaction to what jim had to say? >> it's not a surprise for a couple of reasons. number one, jim and his organization are as the first native american tribe in gaming are sophisticate and successful organization and what they have done in florida with the hard rock facilities and we have seen them acquire the brand from the group is investments they aric maing, it's not surprising they are looking to grow the business. it's opportunistic in a way because we have seen many of the u.s. peers hold back on the growth plans because of balance sheet issues. this is opportunistic in the sense that now at hard rock they can step in where there is an appetite. there is probably three casinos with more than 1,000 slot machines in all of europe. the number in the u.s. is up in the hundreds.

>> if i wanted to trade that, how do i do it? >> number one, we will be focused only on the u.s. casino stocks. at the moment, their growth efforts are really going to be minimal with the exception of one name which is penn national gaming. they were there 2 to 2 1/2 times leverage. they are in a category in the markets that they have that is holding in nicely. they have the balance sheet to pursue growth and most will be within the borders of the united states. >> with that slot machine growth, there two ways to play that. if you wanted to go for the growth and the international slots. >> they are building their business. they sold a third of the slot machines. looking to grow it.

>> thanks so much. we appreciate you taking the time, david. david, as we said, jim allen is with us. we will take a break and when we come back, jim cramer will be along with this trade and will be reacting to another bizarre headline out of an airline. then arnold passing out ious. there is a way to trade on the likelihood they become real cash wrch over here?

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welcome back to "street signs". oil ends the day at a five-week low. the final trades coming in around $64 a barrel. you can point to the demand weakness or the fact that there ecomic uncertainty and you have to pay attention to the technical factors. we can't blame it on the dollar today or have much influence there concerning it has been in a tight range around that $80 level. if you can use an if then statement. if the s&p stays above 880, oil

prices won't fall further. the level will be key and probably will be trading around $65 a barrel going into that weekly data coming up on the energy department on wednesday. >> thanks to you, sharon. time to stop trading because he is back. i hope rest and relaxed for day. >> you have a lot of things you want to talk about and we have a couple of fun things we are saving up. we missed you. let's start with gold. we are looking at commodities and gold knocked down a lot. you focused a lot and that's over the last couple of months. >> we both said when we met with the ceo, that was the to be in and it had a huge run. when they got high, we said whoa. come on. now they are coming back and i

remember this gold has just the perfect leverage to buy under 890 for gold. that's the one i business to be in. i think you will make money. we have to buy the stocks when no one wants them. >> i will throw in the first. the goldman one. this guy gets arrested because he is stealing trade secrets. this is a great story for me because it makes me believe in my amazing black box. maybe they even went ahead and planted this. >> there is a rolling stone conspiracy that is the worst article i have ever read. i feel that this guy -- they nailed him really, really early. in order to get the trading program of goldman up, you have to do the man with two brains and capture the brains of the

people who do the trading. the fact that they may have a system, everyone has a system. you have to know how to use the darn system. >> they are acting like goldman has the secret formula like heinz catch up. >> that's what happens. >> he was just good. he wasn't even that good at it, but other people are able to do it. that goldman is not spreading this and spreading the rolling stone piece. it didn't say they were part of the ladder or for that matter the relations. >> tim, i'm glad you are back.

i miss the non-loaded commentary. i wanted to squeeze two things in here. below 50 you buy? >> yeah, we know that everyone feels like they went to 73 and some guy spending $10 million. under 50 it has been a good buy. transocean under 60. it would be a good buy. they are having a pretty decent quarter i believe. i don't want to leave this because the price of crude came down $10. >> final question to you, jim. he hadn't flown it, but he liked it. this guy is good at getting attention. he may charge for people to use the bathroom. this is the irish carrier. might have people standing up and have barstools coming down.

>> that's stupid as wood. i like aer lingus and every time i have flown it, i love it. >> i like the tails. >> the food. >> i almost -- you had to think there for a second. >> i was going to say safety concerns, but what do i know about those? >> jim, thank you. so jim, i know you will be here tomorrow and sun valley later this week. we have special stuff. >> i'm going to summit and ocean grove. >> a hot hand with cool bargains for investors. the top pick is coming up and amazon trying to attack onle shopng. find out who is going to win this battle. amazon, ebay, anything.com versus the state. sehow-- see?

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willie supposedly robbed banks because that's where the money is. now states loor beinging to tax online shopping for the same reason. states are desperate for money and right now if a retailer and you have a website anywhere in the country, if you don't have a physical score, do you not pay tax. it's tax-free. should that change or not. joining us to talk about that, internet analyst with citi and steve is the executive director at jet choice which is an organization that represents commerce companies.

good to have both of you with us. first if we could let's set the parameters here. if the states moved ahead and we saw shopping taxable, you would be taxed on amazon. if everybody was taxed, how much money would the states get. >> the shrinking tax gaps. forester research estimated if every online seller was required to collect for every state, it would only amount to $3 billion nationwide each year it would come out of consumer pockets. >> $3 billion does note sound like a lot with california's $23 billion just on the deficit. >> i am a california resident and i'm sure all the money would respect. 7% of all retail sales now or

online. that's the activity that is not taxed at the state level. there is an open gee as to whether they should be exempt from taxes. >> that seems to be the issue mark. i want you to make the case and respond. if i have to pay on a purchase on polo.com which is ralph lauren, but i don't have to pay on amazon, it would appear that that's unfair. >> there a couple of reason yes people purchase. there is price savings and there is a tax advantage too. there is convenience and selection and a retail experience that we all experience. there is a bit of a tax advantage that companies have at some level benefitted from and amazon in areas especially international is showing hyper growth. >> why do the retailers care enough to have you making the

case some. >> the internet has never been tax-free and is not today. they select a sales tax from you. the supreme court found that the state system with 8,000 jurisdiction was an unannual burden. the system was complex and no way they should have to collect until the states figured out a way to make it simple. that was the gauntlet they laid down. >> they are fighting over whether you pay? >> that's part of the debate. another is whether there would be one rate per state when they differ from where it was sourced. would they be allowed to have a sales tax holiday that they would need to know about? >> none of that represents the simplification we have seen. >> a final word to you, mark. would you trade on any of this like an amazon and ebay?

>> you clearly have. >> and they use the weakness to build and they are negative catalysts going ahead. >> thanks to both. >> thank you. >> we are continuing our look with the hottest money managers in the country. this is the manager of the $2.5 billion thornburg fund. good to have you with us. ace limit and eli lily are all on the list of top holdings. you have a few key ideas you are focusing on. we started with banks in the program and u.s. bank corp. you are buying why? >> thanks, erin. u.s. bank corp did not make the

same mistakes as the competitors. they never ventured into the subprime area and didn't make unwise acquisitions and didn't buy third party loans. we think they are going to come out of this downturn with more market share and higher profitability than they went into it. >> we bought the stock early 2008 and it hit our price target in october and declined 60%. peerp able to get in in early march at just four months later at a price 60% lower and reestablish our position. today is up about 70% and we see this as a stock that has more upside to it. >> ubs and a couple of others. let's talk about this convertible bond. anyone who bought them last summer, i happen to know people. we got crushed.

what would you buy right now? >> last year with huge withdrawals from the hedge fund community were forced to sell what they own. a lot of them owned convertible bonds. we saw the prices of these bonds collapse to where you could get the equity conversion feature pretty much for free. at huge discounts. we are always looking for the promise which is the upside which this feature has and the discount. in this case these bonds were selling at great discounts to their underlying value. we invested recently in a shanty bonds. the upside is related to gold and they have a strong balance sheet. hertz is the leader in their field. they actually are a well-managed

company and we like the equity, but we like the bonds better. they give around a 5% annual yield that gives you a downside of making money. yet the feature is at a 25% premium. it's paid for by the bond coup on payment. >> we appreciate you tyking the time. coming up on the closing bell, our hot hand series continues. the best performing managers of the year will keep it secret, but i believe it's international. just when you thought the budget could not get worse in california, it does. an internet sales tax will not save t. >> the michael jackson story and the california budget crisis have come together in financial fiasco and the california ious a good investment? when we comeack. so, katy kickeoff the conference call.

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there was a worldwide internet ticket lottery for 11,000 tickets for that memorial. the winners notified last night. they were allowed to exchange them for tickets at dodger stadium today in a drive-thru. but just this morning those vouchers were being auctioned

off for $25,000 apiece on ebay. the going rate right now is about $1,000. proof that if you give a market a little bit of time it will find a clearing price. an additional 6,500 tickets were given away for seats inside the nokia theater, next door to the staples center. so you're seeing it on tv there, like you would at home. and if you thought the cost of a funeral ticket was a lot, even with the clearing price, wait until you hear how much the memorial service will cost the city of los angeles. in a state that has already -- are we still saying it's on the verge of economic collapse? to be sensitive to jane, we will keep it on the verge. jane? >> yeah, i guess we're still on the verge, erin. i mean, you know, i'm still here. but you know, not only are people trying to sell their tickets to the michael jackson funeral online, or the memorial online, but if you look at this video there are people on sites like craigslist, would-be investors wanting to buy california ious, paying cash, which the bank will not do after thursday. why? the interest rate is 3.75% annualized. that's better than the bank. but unlike the state general

obligation funds they carry a higher risk. they're much further down the repayment food chain. but there could be $3.3 billion in ious issued just this month without a budget deal. >> there are a variety of people who are being hurt by this. it's going to -- it is. it's going to harm thousands of people, and it's going to cost the state millions of dollars. >> now, one idea being floated again to cover the budget hole may be to force local governments to lend the state perhaps as much as $2 billion to be repaid later. that is hard. l.a., the city of los angeles, is already a half billion dollars in the hole, and it now has to scrounge up an estimated $2.5 million to cover the costs necessitatesed by the jackson memorial tomorrow. >> the budget anticipates for those events large in scope. this only applies to the police department. it does not apply to the other departments such as ita or sanitation or transportation. >> now, the city is asking others to pony up some of the

costs, whether it's the jackson family or aeg, who's putting on -- paying for the costs inside the staples center. or maybe some of the private donors, erin, who helped pay for the laker parade we had just a few weeks ago. so far at last check no offers of help yet. >> jane wells, thank you. and california, as you know, or may know, will issue more than $3.3 billion in ious this month. what will people do with these pieces of paper? some will try to cash them in at their banks. others will try to sell them. that's where jeremy smith comes in. a second market which will provide a market for these ious. explain how this works, jeremy. basically, these are promises from the state of california to pay us back, or to pay someone back, right? at some point. >> that's correct. that's what the ious are. >> so are you allowing people to bet on whether california will make good on that money? >> right now we're still in the process of monitoring the situation. and to the extent that people

aren't able to sell them to their banks or as people start to doubt california's ability to pay back at least in full those ious we are going to be able to provide a marketplace for the ious where holders can list them and have buyers competitively bid on those ious. >> all right. so how are you going to get pricing? we were just talking about it with the michael jackson memorabilia. it can be hard on anuction site to get a real price. and gosh knows as a country we have learned that. with bad bank loans. how do you get a right price on these? >> that's the power of a marketplace, the wisdom of crowds, if you will. if you put enough smart people in a room, so to speak, and give them the appropriate information, they can figure out what the right value is for that asset, whether you're talking about a mortgage-backed security, private company stock, or an iou. >> all right. so where do you go from here? when are you going to decide whether you'll start the marketplace? >> i think on july 10th once the banks really determine the long term or at least medium term

what they feel they're going to do, that's when we can react. and if it looks like the banks aren't going to continue to take the ious and it looks like people are going to be frozen holding those assets, that's when we're very seriously going to consider launching the marketplace. and we've done it before in the past with an asset class that we have called auction rate securities. we launched that marketplace within ten days, and now are the marketplace for auction rate securities. >> thank you so much. we appreciate your taking the time, jeremy. >> my pleasure. thank you. >> and stay on "the closing bell." you're going to hear from the state treasurer of california, bill lockyer, maria's guest, and they will talk about the budget crisis in california. playing throughou

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