katie: we have 30 minute into the u.s. trading day. here are the top stories we are following. slow growth. hot inflation. first quarter gdp misses estimates. measure of underlying inflation accelerated for the first time in a year. it is the fed to do? marious's new york debut. the british commodities rocher begins trading on the new york stock exchange after deciding against a london listing. we talked through the decision with the ceo. and dow chemicals. the chemical company reported a drop in sales and adjusted operating earnings. he joins in just a bit.

i'm katie greifeld in new york. welcome to bloomberg markets. it is a down day in the markets right now on this thursday. the s&p 500 currently off by about 1.5%, and the story only gets worse if you take a look at big tech, with the nasdaq currently off by about 1.7%. we know a lot of that is coming from meta reporting earnings last night. the stock is down double digits right now. that is what we are seeing in the stock market in addition to the economic data which we will get to in just a bit. you look at how it is filtering through the bond market. you have 10 year treasury yields higher by eight basis points. firmly above 4.7% for the first time since late last year. that is after u.s. economic growth. we learned that it slid to a nearly two-year low last quarter while inflation jumps. optimism for a soft landing. michael mckee joins us with the

details. walk us through how painful that dynamic might be for the fed. slow growth, hot inflation. michael: the problem is that it is not necessarily slow growth. on a headline basis, it is. there is a lot going on under the hood. take a look at what happened. gdp came in at 1.6%. the anticipation was for something around 3, 2 .5% to 3%. underneath that, consumer spending worse than expected but still strong at 2.5%. if you do final sales, 3.1%, still very strong. business investments stay relatively strong. what it was was inventories. the inventory built very small this quarter. trade. exports were down significantly. it could be the strong dollar. imports were up specifically. that subtracted almost a full percentage point from gdp.

also, federal government spending down for the first time in almost two years, probably because congress delayed passing the israel and ukraine military aid package. it was the inflation numbers that caught wall street's attention, particularly the core on a year-over-year basis, up 3.7%. what you want to look at is on the far right, the white line and the blue line going up. that is not the direction the fed wants to see. is it because we saw january and february numbers revised? or is it because we are going to get a big surprise tomorrow? tomorrow, we are expecting 3/10 for the headline and the core. this is for the march pce, which is in this quarterly number, but we don't know what it is yet. they are expecting the headline to rise, the court to go down a little bit. if we don't get that, you may have another market selloff

tomorrow. we have got some other news just breaking now, a home sales up by 4% -- a significant beat. the forecast was for just a 0.4%. the forecast is worse than it was last month. home sales still in a bit of difficulty because of mortgage rates. what is interesting is, on a percentage basis, home sales were up significantly in gdp, what on a dollar basis, they barely moved. when you are that low, it does not take much to move a percentage. katie: to your point, the inflation numbers in today's gdp really moving the markets. somehow, the stakes got even higher for pce figures, which i'm sure we will be talking with you about in 24 hours. mike mckee, thank you so much. let's turn to these markets and the selloff that is underway. we are going to do that with david sowerby.

you look at reactions right now. we had disappointing earnings and disappointing figures when it comes to the economy and what is going on with inflation. a lot of questions for the fed. a lot of big questions for portfolio managers. how are you thinking about markets at this juncture? >> it always goes back to know what you own when you look at cash flow, earnings, and the health of the balance sheet. in 2024, we are going to see free cash flow growth for the s&p 500 of 14% to 15%. that is still a very good backdrop for portfolio management, even in the face of slower gdp, higher inflation -- a federal reserve monetary experiment that we are three plus years two and we still don't know exactly how it is going to turn out when the fed grows money supply at tony 5%, and then has negative money

supply for the last year. it is still playing out in the economy. but i defer to companies still creating relatively good cash flow and double-digit dividend growth. katie: is that the real focus, the real ticket -- cash flow growth versus earnings growth? david: it is, simply because cash flow, a lot can happen between revenue and earnings-per-share on the income statement. in particular, free cash flow, which is after you do your capital expenditures for a company, how much they can allocate to the shareholder -- companies are still very good allocators of capital. they are growing the dividend. they are buying back shares. there creating shareholder value in this period when global uncertainty can lead investors to seek the asset class of putting money in the mattress. that does not work.

katie: take that focus to big tech, to the magnificent seven. think about them powering the rally so far this year. what are you expecting when it comes to cash flows there? david: the free cash flow margin, that often touted magnificent seven, is still above average. where i have greater hesitation is if you look from 2022 through the present, valuations have expanded, price to revenue, price to sales. it has gone up more than 60% for the magnificent seven. it has not been matched one for one with the profitability measuring on return on equity. that is where i think pockets of the magnificent seven could have issues, as we are seeing this morning. that is why i think you need to broaden the base of your

portfolio, because the rubber band is pretty tight on a valuation basis. katie: let's venture outside the magnificent seven. where are you finding those pockets of opportunity when you think about maybe where cash flow generation is maybe outpacing the growth in valuations? david: to borrow from bloomberg, the bloomberg spinoff index. 26% this year. it has rallied quite well since the lows of october 2023. aramark, the food service company -- they spun off their uniform business. tonight in detroit is day one of the nfl draft. aramark does a significant amount of their food service business at sports venues. that is a spinoff stock. travel and leisure -- people still want to travel with their discretionary dollars.

the spinoff out of wyndham hotels -- it's resorts, it's vacation properties -- i think that is another good place. they are growing their earnings. wyndham is one of the few stocks that is up today. it is up about 5%. it is in our portfolios, leading to the mid to value side. i think those are all opportunities for investors. katie: i did not know that bloomberg had a spinoff index. you will have to send me the ticker after the show. and you walk me through why that dynamic exists, why spinoffs are doing well? is there anything to extrapolate out of that? david: i believe so. over the last 25 years, spinoffs are a terrific formula to create value and small-cap stocks. you typically have a large company spins off a smaller company. now they stand on their own.

they are no longer cash flowing to the bigger entity. it unlocks value. the large-cap investor may be cells off the spin. value is created. it is back on its treadmill. spinoffs historically are a terrific place to add value in the small-cap area. we know they are trading with some of the largest valuation since we saw small caps go on a five to six year run where they outperformed large caps. in has been a long time coming. but i think the ellsberg -- the iceberg is thawing in the small-cap value area. katie: really enjoyed this conversation. our thanks to david sowerby. that us look at what is moving underneath these markets on a very busy earnings day. we have to start with meta. what is going on?

>> the biggest drop since 2020 24 meta. people are focused on the second revenue forecast missing estimates, but also the company saying they expect to spend billions more than previously estimated on ai efforts. we had mark zuckerberg saying to investors, "be patient, please." it will take a long time to see results from this. he said if you are a smart investor, you will understand that. but the stock is down. it does not seem like that messages holding this morning. i thought mandeep singh from bloomberg intelligence had a good sum up of what is going on. he said the increased cap spending could be tied to the investments in generative ai. when you look at the losses in reality labs, it suggests the company is unlikely to see upward revisions to the free cash flow in the near term. the stock still has 67 -- 62

buys, seven holds, and only three sells, according to bloomberg. katie: if there is anything we know about markets, it is that they are not patient. tell me about caterpillar, also having a rough morning. >> down over 8%. they said they expect deceit second-quarter sales fall. dealer inventories fall. the adjusted eps for the previous quarter did beat. the revenue missed, but only slightly, $15.8 billion versus estimates of 16.12. it seems the bar was just very high for caterpillar coming into this. that stock was already up 23 percent year-to-date, so the market does seem to be punishing mrs.. we also know that as a manufacturing company, heavy machinery, they are kind of an economic know whether. they said they see weakness in the asia-pacific and -- not so

much china, but other regions around the globe. katie: let's end on a good note. what is going on with chipotle? >> record high. they are doing this stock split, hopefully in june, because that is a really large number. earnings were good for chipotle. comp sales beat. they looked at the full year outlook as diner traffic seems to be increasing. the demand for chicken is so high that chipotle told employees to not buy any chicken because they have to conserve the supply. katie: just insatiable demand for chicken. i don't know where that came from. emily griffey oh, thank you so much. brian nickel will be on later today with the bloomberg markets close at 8:30. but don't go anywhere. u.k. futures broker is going public in the u.s. we go live to the nasdaq with ian lowitt, next. ♪

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♪ ♪ - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu. visit snhu.edu. katie: u.k. futures broker will begin trading on the nasdaq. it will sell about 15.4 million shares for $19. that will raise just under $300 million in the ipo. joining us more is in lo-- is s an lowitt, a u.k. futures broker. your primary listing is now in the united states. why the united states? ian: thanks. that is rbc a great question. we are a global company. we service some of our clients out of 35 offices around the world. we are proud to be domiciled in

london, which provides us advantages in terms of time zone. when it came to listing, we were sort of hugely impressed by the depth of knowledge of our space and of market infrastructure companies, of which we are one, here in the united states. there was great receptivity and we have been able to assemble a sort of fantastic book of high-quality investors who are all very knowledgeable about our space. i think that is what drove our decision. katie: two years ago, you tried to sell shares in london. did not go through with those plans. weak demand was part of that. what does demand future look like in the u.s. versus the u.k., especially now versus two years ago? ian: i think the company has really transformed from where we were sort of three years ago when we did try to list in london.

the firm is four times bigger than it was then. we have had a much longer track record of growth. we have been able to grow our profit consecutively for a decade. that extra few years has made a huge difference in terms of the receptivity from clients. we just had a fantastic reception from investors here. the deal was massively oversubscribed. we are extremely pleased with the decision to list here. and the reception we have had from potential investors. katie: it is really interesting, this trend that is growing. you have u.k. and european companies coming over to the u.s., switching their listing, or going ahead like you are with the primary listing. flutter is about to put it up to a vote as well. what can we extrapolate about the relevancy of u.k. exchanges

from that growing trend? ian: i think there are vibrant exchanges in the u.k., and i'm sure there are many companies for whom listing in the u.k. will beat the right decision. for a global company like ours, and a company in our particular space where what was important was having investors who are familiar with market infrastructure -- that was sort of telling. i'm sure that both locations will thrive, going forward. katie: it will certainly be interesting to watch. you talk about compared to two, three years ago, your company' is transformation. if you can take us into the details of some of the changes you have put in place, that would certainly be illuminating. ian: we have been able to affect some acquisitions which have made a big difference to our scale and scope. we have been growing steadily over a long period of time. there have been tailwinds over

the last couple of years, particularly with interest rates rising. that certainly helped us. what we have is a firm that has a terrific organization. it is capable of taking advantage of the market opportunities we see. we have been attracting more and more clients, increasing the amount of business we do with them. have been diversifying, growing the number of products we can offer clients, the number of geographies we can service from. the combination of those things, the organic and inorganic growth, has transformed the scale of the company and provided us with a terrific platform to continue with our growth. katie: you are raising about $300 million in this public offering. what do you plan to put that money toward? what will you be investing in, the next couple of years? ian: but when he 5% is primary.

the remainder is secondary. of the primary, we continue to see very substantial opportunities to continue to consolidate in our space, and continue to make acquisitions. we are very excited about how the extra firepower can be deployed to continue the growth of the company. katie: i appreciate your time on what i know is a very busy day. ian lowitt is the ceo of merrick's. we will talk with the chairman and ceo of cantor fitzgerald. he joins bloomberg television at noon. but still ahead on this program, we take a look at the companies making the most social buzz today in our "social climbers" segment, up next. ♪

katie: it is time now for social climbers, a look at the stocks making waves on social media this morning. first up, americans are skipping the frozen pizzas and hot pockets, and that is resulting in a very tepid earnings report for nestle. the swiss outlet, lower than expected growth in the frozen food category. it is a sign u.s. consumers have started to change the shopping habits in response to high prices.

up next, royal caribbean cruises riding the high seas after boosting its full-year profit forecast thanks to high demand, with bookings at all time highs. the cruise operator is able to charge more for trips. finally, we have hurts reporting a loss that was almost three times worse than analysts had expected. the car company is accelerating sales of electric vehicles to reduce its fleet of tesla models. that has weighed on profits this past year. you can follow the news on your bloomberg terminal. a very heavy markets day. we are in the thick of earnings season. also the thick of economic data. you can see the s&p 500 currently off by more than 1%, one .2%. you look at the nasdaq 100, tech down by 1.2%. meta reported earnings yesterday after the bell. currently, the stock is down

double digits, with investors clearly worried about maybe the efficiency from one of the year's highest flyers. can see concern rippling its way through the benchmarks. mark zuckerberg has asked for patients. at least today, he is not getting it. the economic data was pretty interesting. slower growth on gdp, but you look at the price index, the core pce price index coming in hotter than expected. 3.7% working its way through the bond market and adding to those fears that maybe the fed is not going to deliver that big bonanza of rate cuts that had been expected a couple of months ago. we will continue to talk about that. coming up, dow chemical is reporting a year-over-year drop. we will speak to the chairman and ceo, next. ♪

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katie: chemical maker dow is indicating sales below estimates things to weak demand in europe. abigail doolittle has the details. abigail: sales of 10 point $7 billion in line. one thing relative to sales what was in line. it was down on a year-over-year basis. in addition to what you're talking about with the guidance. lots of strength. they benefited from lower feedstock and energy costs. if we look at it relative to

some of the competitors on the year we will see the dow was underperforming but one real bright spot is after the january quarter which was where the stock diverged from dupont that you could see it is recovered and close this gap a lot. one reason to be positive even with that sales guidance if we break down materials and i think it's glossy coatings we are going to see that declines we've had in growth really on an upswing still down 5.4% closer to 25%. a lot of it depends on strong demand for construction. so not a bad trend here if it continues in that direction? katie: thank you so much for that set up. let's keep the conversation going with the dow chairman and ceo joining us now. abigail ran us through the quarter that was. of course the chemical companies

when you think of the inventory glut you guys were some of the first to feel and that filtered through a range of industrial companies, where are we in that cycle when it comes to demand may be starting to pick back up and what it means for inventories. >> great to be with you. that is a really good point. as we look back to mid 2022 coming off of a record peak in 21 we started to see a slowdown in the economy and there was a lot of discussion around d stocking. --de stocking. this quarter is the second consecutive quarter we've seen a volume growth. a 1% volume growth this quarter if you exclude hydrocarbon and energy sales, byproduct sales off that complex. you'd see 5% on street demand growth. that's pretty strong and with

the guidance we gave for the second quarter which is about a $200 million improvement in the second quarter that would get us to positive year-over-year and so to me that's a bit of a sign we are starting to see the turn happening. we typically in our industry lean into a slowdown in we tend to lead out of it when things start to turn. katie: maybe it is already here, but let's situate this conversation in the macroeconomic backdrop. if you look at what markets are pricing in, the first rate cut has been pushed to december. i remember people would say it start -- it would start in march. does that delay a stronger round of demand for durables, construction for your customers. how are you thinking about that? jim: we have strong demand growth in several sectors right

now before any rate cuts that i think will continue through the year. if you look at automotive i think we've seen very strong growth. industrial electronics whether it is through automation or data centers or chip production, a lot of our silicon business which goes to thermal management, our infrastructure business and our packaging, especially plastics business are seeing strong demand growth. pharma in our industrial intermediates is seeing strong demand growth and than the core of our business, our packaging business is seeing good volume growth so our polyethylene portfolio was up. chemical shipments were up in the first quarter. 4.3 in the month of march. so that is a good sign. on a global basis up 3.6% so i think you are starting to see in

the industrial markets, the telecommunications market, automotive packaging we are seeing real resilience there. when you get to housing those affect things like our business for paints, our polyurethanes business for insulation as well as for furniture and bedding and durable goods like appliances. those tend to start to move when you see existing home sales move up. permits for new homes are starting to inch up. existing home sales relatively flat. in our experience once you see a couple of rate cuts you see a pretty immediate step up in those demand drivers for those businesses. you mentioned earlier lower feedstock and energy cost. we saw a 10 percentage point increase in operating rates in the first quarter. a big portion of that was in europe. energy costs were 47 euros per

megawatt hour one year ago. they were 27 in the first quarter. we took advantage of that and with our low cost positions in europe we saw profitability there. >> a big improvement in that measure. let's go global. you've got some of the global influences but let's talk about global chemical prices. when it comes to the last 18 months they have been pretty depressed. you had some excess supply from china. how confident are you we are past the bottom. or is there more to go? jim: we saw pricing move up through the first quarter in our ethylene and polyethylene franchises so that's a positive sign. we also saw prices move up in our silicon's business and operating rates move up as well.

so two positive trends and that leaves the construction related businesses who have yet to move up. we see that underlying demand strength in volume in our industrial intermediates business and in our polyethylene business we were up by double digits in the first quarter in china. i think that shows what a cost advantage we have in the americas to be able to supply that demand. >> interesting comments, there's been a lot of fear about china that sounds like you are moving past that. when you think about europe's chemicals industry what does the earnings cycle look like. we know chemical companies in the u.s. have been going through it. what about europe? jim: we have a bit of an advantaged position in europe because we crack light in europe, we crack more propane in

our crackers and so propane spread has increased dramatically. that is a cost advantage that we have that others in the market do not have. we focus on the domestic market so the thing we want to watch long term is can these energy costs stay low like they are today. what happens to the downstream demand. we've some -- we've seen some announcements, we've seen some announcements on energy intensive industries like steel shutting down, we watch the demand and see what happens with our downstream customers in places like appliances and automotive and make sure that our footprint is sized to serve that market long term. clearly the cost advantage is in canada, the united states, latin america, middle east. with europe having moved into

the high cost position last year and asia-pacific at the top end of the curve. what sets the pricing for them is the price of oil. katie: you look at your u.s. gas cost advantage, this is from bloomberg intelligence. that versus your global competitors. it appears to be heading back towards record levels. how much of that was curtailed to your first-quarter earnings? >> over 100 million dollars of improvement in the first quarter just from lower feedstock and energy cost around the globe the european numbers i quoted you on an electric to -- electricity standpoint as well as the u.s. natural gas advantage. >> really appreciate that. he is the chairman and ceo. for more insight on the c-suite be sure to tune in monday when we will be joined by the lamborghini ceo, of that is

coming 10:30 a.m. eastern on monday. before we get there into the weekend let's get a check on these markets. abigail: there's one stock with a check on the markets. meta-shares plunging. really quite a stunning cliff dive believe it still the worst day since october of 2022 and this on the fact the growth of the current quarter not as strong as the growth for the past quarter which was a great quarter in the overspend or the big spend capex on ai, investors not liking that. maybe a reminder for the efficiency that the year before was the year of the metaverse and that did not go so well from a spending point. as for the other markets let's check in on the s&p and see where that is at this point. i believe the s&p 500 is down 1.3%. microsoft and alphabet ahead for earnings. meta-not setting a good stage.

the outlook for tesla was good. interesting how these come in. the cloud unit, will they achieve the 28% growth many are expecting for alphabet their revenue is expected to decline for the first quarter by 5%. the traditional search business and of course ai and what makes this so interesting we have this two year yield almost at a 5%. despite the fact we have stocks down there is not fear. you could say the two year yield up another weight on investors as perhaps we are certain to think ahead to the fed next week. i don't think the fed will raise next week but nonetheless we color. when we put this together let's look at the chart we looked at yesterday sometimes it's helpful to do this and as a refresher this is the beautiful uptrend out of the october lows. if you were to put this in a longer chart you would see it's not quite parabolic but now we are starting to see over the last three weeks this decline down.

they got pushed back down by resistance affecting the moving average. more earnings the fed next week it's not really clear what that will be. it could be this bearish sentiment. we could see the s&p 500 go all the way down from the 4700, 4600 and that's as close to the russell 2000 days. another reason we don't have the s&p 500 breaking out of that range there have been some companies that have beaten but the day after beat is paltry almost 2/10 of 1%. closer to 1% when you put that together with some of the negative tech earnings that's why we have this s&p 500 in a near term downtrend. katie: bloomberg's abigail doolittle thank you so much. we will hear from the computer treating chairman and ceo on the pressures of facing big tech. this is bloomberg. ♪

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abigail: you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. the airbus ceo joins bloomberg tv and radio, this is bloomberg. katie: it's time for our wall street week daily conversation and today we are focused on inflation after another hot print today. computer treating chairman and ceo spoke with wall street week host david westin about what commodities can tell us about inflation trends. >> the seven seas are relatively consistent that inflation will be persistent for longer. you are starting to see some of the seasonal commodities potentially break out.

corn, the other c that had been week. the stronger c's have been relatively stable after having fairly large moves. >> what's driving that right now? why do you look at these? >> i look at them as the ac which is the consumer. in terms of is the consumer going to have to substitute their spending for more on staples where demand is inelastic and that will then lead to less discretionary spending across the board and so i look at bigger picture stocks like visa, mastercard, costco, target, to see if the consumer strength is still there. those stocks have demonstrated a little bit of weakness so that

is the conundrum of the pressure on commodities and potential weakness of these consumer stocks which puts the fed in a box. david: if there's a breakout that puts pressure on visa and mastercard. they have to spend it on food. >> yes. those stocks in particular are a good measure of consumer strength and you see that in weekly data and you get that from jp or bank of america compared to week over week or year-over-year that's the strength of consumer spending. >> some stocks of felt a lot of pressure just recently have been the big tech. what's going on with them do you think? >> there's the trading aspect to it. so there's the old saying what goes up must come down.

so you've basically had a really big move. you've corrected, technically a number of these stocks have broken key levels and if they do not reject those levels and start their uptrend again, that could mean that the weeding aspect of the technology relative to other stocks is ending which can hurt the large-cap indices because they are such big waits. >> what does this all say to the fed. i could speculate a little bit of a tightening in financial conditions would not be a bad thing right now because it would be going the other way. >> i think the fed is sprinting in place. very challenging. because you have this tug-of-war. but it's hard to save but you should be easing when you've just had record highs in bitcoin, record highs in

equities and you have seen gasoline prices go up and potentially now these other commodities breaking in. they are stuck, in my mind, of not doing anything probably the rest of the year. david: gold does not begin with a c, but we have had record highs in gold. is that a useful indicator of where inflation might be heading. often you think that's where you are going. peter: i am not one that particularly favors gold as an indicator of what's going on with inflation. the correlation between gold and the s&p has been fairly high so you think that's a cross term. people tend to look backwards so in the 70's when gold was strong and inflation was high there weren't a lot of instruments to use to hedge against inflation.

but today there are many more instruments. you can short bonds in the futures markets. you can participate in individual commodity markets or you can participate through options or futures in the equity market. i do not think gold is as much of an inflation indicator as perhaps the supply and demand question for uncertainty in the global geopolitical and non-u.s. central banks may have added to gold demand recently. that in the last week or so has had a pretty significant correction. katie: let me go back -- david: as an investor, how do you invest in the conundrum. what do you do? peter: it depends on your timeframe. if you are younger and you of long timeframe do you sit back and that's the nature of markets.

on average there's a double-digit decline in the s&p every year. of course i'm always mindful of the six-foot tall man that drowns in the water at the average height of five feet. but in that case you stay the course. if you are more like me and you have a good run, i think the hardest thing in portfolio management and discipline is selling a winner or taking it down and rebalancing your portfolio. is this a time to rebalance your portfolio when you have this conundrum combined with fed uncertainty i think that makes a lot of sense. katie: do you -- david: do you see a reasonable prospect of the fed cutting where the economy is right now. why cut, what's the impetus for it? peter: i do not see the fed cutting at all this year. i have been a little bit of an

outlier and i think it's become just a drop more of consensus. i do not think they are going to raise either. there is a necessity to raise because you still have a lot of geopolitical uncertainty which can slow the economy and if you end up cutting in my mind that's because the economy has weakened because either of the s&p has gone down back negative. or there's more geopolitical uncertainty. katie: that was peter of computer trading and wall street host david westin. tomorrow we will hear from carnegie hall executive and artistic director about the business of fine arts institutions. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie: let's take a look at some stocks hitting highs and lows today. chipotle giving a 52-week high after lifting its full-year outlook thanks in part to its chicken promotions. shares of the restaurant chain in the midst of a six-month rally that seem the stock surge close to 70% of another 2.6% today. on the other it did hit a two-year high that was after reported first-quarter revenue that blew past expectations but currently down about 2%. on the others bowing hitting a 52 week low after s&p revised its outlook to negative. the troubled airline with a tumultuous quarter. headlined by its 737 max crisis share. coming up next we had bloomberg

technology and that does it for bloomberg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. ed: i'm ed ludlow in san francisco. this is bloomberg technology. meda says it will be the world's leading ai company but investors do not like the romance -- the roadmap to get there. a massive drop in zuckerberg's stock. from earnings to ipo's we speak to the ceo