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tv   The David Rubenstein Show Peer to Peer Conversations  Bloomberg  April 24, 2024 9:00pm-9:30pm EDT

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david: this is my kitchen table and it's also my filing system. over much of the past three decades i have been an investor. the highest calling of mankind i've often thought was private equity. then, i started interviewing. i watched your interview so i know how to do some interviews.
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i've learned from doing my interviews how leaders make it to the top. >> i asked how much he wanted, he said to 50 and i did no due diligence. david: i have something i want you to sell. and how they stay there. you don't feel inadequate being only the second wealthiest man in the world, is that right? for many years, the most successful insurance company in the world was aig, than the great recession came. aig required 183 billion dollar bailout from the u.s. government. that bailout has been repaid with interest. aig has reshaped into a smaller but successful insurance company being led by peter savino -- peter zaffino. i had a chance to sit down with peter to talk about the new aig. for those who aren't familiar with the property and casual insurers, what do they do? peter: we ensure small, medium, large businesses for property insurance, auto or financial lines, which is directors and officers. we also have a business that
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does business such as contractors or businesses that may not find its way into the conventional business. we also have a lloyd's syndicate and we are a big part of lloyd's as well. david: the insurance business has two parts to it. one is the part of assessing the risk and charging premiums that hopefully, from the insurer's point of view, cover the risk. the second is taking the premiums and infesting it, hopefully getting a good rate of return. let's talk about the first part. in the first part of assessing a risk, is it harder today because inflation is so high to assess the risk you might have in insuring someone's home or property? peter: the property company is more -- to get right than it is the investment site. with inflation, complexity of cyber risks and other factors, such as global warming,'s catastrophes, the dynamic of what happened after the pandemic with density and piques zone
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areas such as florida, california. understanding your balance sheet and your aggregates with what you are underwriting is complicated. you need people with a lot of experience and a lot of good judgment in terms of making underwriting choices. david: somebody says climate change is not here, they haven't talked to a property and casual insurer. peter: that is right. five out of the last six years we've had $100 billion of natural disaster losses. david: what about artificial intelligence? will it enable you and others to say we have enough information to know when -- what something will be worth in terms of ensuring it or not? peter: artificial intelligence is finding its way into the business. the first piece is getting better insight into data that allows us to make better decisions on underwriting. it's a great opportunity to service business better in terms of call centers in different ways of using robotics and ai would be very helpful.
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but it is an emerging practice within the industry and one that is evolving very quickly. it's also going to present risks that other companies, how they use it and how they use large language models and making sure the decision-making is very sound. it's complicated but it is benefiting the business. david: the insurance industry has a reputation for -- let's say, somebody has a claim house burned down on the insurance adjuster says, it really wasn't worth as much as you think are the damages and as great, is that a big problem anymore or is that an unfair image? peter: i think it's an unfair image. it was probably true years ago, but today, the contracts are much more clear, paying claims, that's what we do and underwrite risks, but we have to show up in moments that matter what we have to pay claims in the amount of disputes are very small with the percentage of our overall portfolio. it's not a fair assessment. david: when you make a judgment
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that you will charge a certain premium, you would probably figure you would make some profit on the premium, are you doing that now? peter: that has not been aig's past, in 2009 to 2019 at last over a billion dollars in underwriting. coming into 2017 with a great team that followed me here, and we began that underwriting journey. so now we do make underwriting profits. for every dollar, we underwrite risks. we make $.12 a profit. david: let's talk about investment income. you bring in these premiums and all insurers invest in you get great people to invest for you. what kind of return are you looking for on your investment portfolio? peter: 70 5% of the portfolio is fixed income. this new interest rate environment the investment income is going up. the remaining portion will be a form of alternative investment, such as private equity or commercial real estate. that is done conservatively. but we are not going to win just
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the investment income, you need to make an underwriting profit. we balance both very well. david: i should say private equity, my own firm has a relationship with aig. you can't put too much money in private equity, right? peter: absolutely, they do a great job. david: in terms of investment returns, are all insurers making money both on investment return and on premium underwriting? peter: the business is making underwriting profit and it's on the investment side. david: it's often said lloyd's of london would often insure. are there things you won't ensure if somebody says i'm worried about my wedding being rained out or something like that? is there any insurance you won't provide? peter: we are specific in terms of what we want to underwrite. it has to be where we can deploy capital and get a fair return.
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we don't reflect the way lloyd's can insure almost anything. it's much more a traditional specialty company that would have real strong expertise and scale in the areas that we underwrite. david: housing insurance is a big part of your business, i assume. what is the biggest risk for you in providing insurance for people's homes? peter: complexity has been the density built up in areas with significant exposure. you think about the southeast of the united states for wind or wildfire in california. what happened as an effect of the pandemic was, people moved into those areas and make it up, two and a half million dollar house cost 5 million during the pandemic and people put up a tent. all of a sudden you had all this density in areas that were already challenged to have enough insurance to be able to respond to the individual homeowners. it has become more complex, add in more frequency of hurricanes
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and wildfires, and you have a market that is under stressed. david: property casualty is separate than automobile insurance. do you joke -- do you do automobile insurance? is that a risky business to be in these days? are drivers getting better or what about people who don't have cars that don't have drivers, are you worried about that? peter: driverless vehicles are a big exposure, but with ai, quality vehicles, it's more predictable than it was in the past. david: for your own home, who provides home insurance for you? peter: aig. david: if you have a claim, do you have a problem getting it claimed? peter: i haven't had to have a claim. ♪
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david: let's talk about how you got into the insurance business. your father was in the business. did he say, peter, when you grow
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up you should go in the insurance business? peter: there were -- the myth of him reading the insurance books at night is not true. he encouraged me to pursue what i wanted. i went to boston college, graduated. the reason i wanted to enter the insurance industry was because i wanted to stay in boston at a company owned by itt. it did offer me a job. i thought would do training elsewhere to come back to boston, that's why i took the job. david: some people might say insurance is a worrying business. the way private equity is. is that not the case where you found it would be interesting out of college? peter: i found it interesting. you aren't doing the same thing every time. you learn to build relationships. you understand the quantitative nature of how to -- how to underwrite. i liked it because it had a balance of different things. david: what did you do after your first job in boston? peter: i never made it back to
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boston. i stayed in new york, early on in my career i do not think i could work in new york city, which is a predominant portion of my career. i have always been at big companies. i worked at itt, then i worked at general electric. david: you were working at marshall clinic on september 11 2001, where were you on that morning? peter: that was my sixth day of work at marsh mclennan, i was on the 53rd floor of tower to that day to work. david: what happened? peter: the first plane went into tower one. i had seen it and colleagues and i started to evacuate. nothing urgent, but to the stairwell to make our way down. we made it to the 40th floor when the second plane went into the building. i didn't know what it was at the time. i figured tower one had tipped over or something else that come
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into the building. we had a sense of urgency of getting out. david: was there a rushed down the stairwell? peter: it was orderly but it started to get panicky to get out of the building. david: you got out of the building, how much before the building collapsed. ? peter: i was probably 20 minutes north of the building. i was never in danger of having soot or other things on me once the building collapsed. david: as soon as you got out of the building you didn't look up there, you ransomware? peter: i met a few -- ran somewhere? peter: i met a friend and we walked north to 125th street to get out of the city. david: how many of your colleagues died? peter: almost 300 that day. david: 300 colleagues died from marsh mclennan. you did not say i've had enough of wall street and insurance, i will go into something else? peter: the unique part of our
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business is in major disasters or things that happen like that, our clients need us. it was immediately calibrating, focusing. i was in the reinsurance business, so helping insurance companies get back into business and helping raise capital and helping them assess what they needed to do going forward. david: today, aig over the years has been an gigantic company. maybe the largest at one time market cap insurers in the world. during the great recession, it had some problems. ultimately, the government had to come with a bailout, 100 $80 billion guaranteed loan or bailout. have you paid that back yet? peter: that was paid back well before i arrived. david: did the government make a profit? peter: yes. there was interest in a profit. david: what caused that was too much insurance on high-risk mortgages? peter: it was a financial products product that was credit related that created an impact
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on liquidity. david: peter, when you took over as the ceo of this company, it wasn't in as good a shape as it appears to be now, what did you do to turn it around and what are you most proud of having achieved in your time as ceo so far? peter: the thing i'm proud of the most is the number of people that came to aig and people that stayed to come together as an organization to try to improve our underwriting, operation capabilities and financial performance. we had to shed one point $4 trillion of exposure since we started. that was a dramatic change. we had to do 10 operational programs at once to get the foundation stability for the company for the future. i actually think that part of the pandemic benefited us because we compress that transformation and did it very fast and made dramatic improvements for the company. financial performance started to
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manifest itself from the efforts that we made on the underwriting side of the operation side. it's been a tremendous effort. david: you are now pretty much in the pnc business, property casualty. you are getting out of life insurance, explain why the life insurance business wouldn't be a better business. you know people will die, it's predictable. actuaries tell you when they will die. why is that business not as good as the? -- peter: it's a spread business and when that has dynamics to drive its outcomes. david: i see lots of ads for home insurance, but i don't see a lot of aig ads. are you appealing to people like me watching television or are you going to institutional market? peter: we have a distribution of agents and brokers, we are a business to business.
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we source our business through that distribution channel. advertising to the young consumer has limited value than the products we underwrite. david: today, the insurance business in the united states, would you say it's a healthy business? peter: i would. balance is strong, returns are, there's positive momentum. david: you see a lot about what's going on in the economy because you underwrite activities, what is your biggest worry about the economy? are you worried about recession, inflation, high interest rates? peter: i work on it all. inflation is one. we carry reserves for many years on our balance sheet. and what the effect is of inflation as we pay claims over the long term. the investment rates, as i said, with fixed income, that strong for us in terms of reinvestment rates. it allows us to do very well in the investment side. i do worry about the global
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economy, gdp has been holding up. but in the united states, a big part of gdp's health care and tech. we see consumer spending and driving excels through retail is something we watch frequently. david: what percentage of your business are overseas and what percent is in the united states? peter: it's about 50-50. david: what are the number of employees? peter: 30,000 at aig and 20,000 employee equivalents in terms of what we outsource in back office or through technology. david: today your market capitalization is 45 billion? peter: yes. david: do you spend any time in washington, d.c. saying to regulators, you are not doing a good job regulating us are members of congress do a better job taking care of the debt repayment? peter: i spent time in washington with lawmakers. the complexity of insurances that we are state regulated. spending time with various state
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regulators and fca and fsa in the u.k. and japan, respectively, is where i spend more of my time. david: when you meet with members of congress is it an uplifting experience? peter: getting compromised and talking through specific issues is more challenging than it has been in the past. we are trying to make progress. david: you go to a lot of co gatherings, things like the business roundtable or the business council and things like that. when you talk to other ceos, what are they worried about today? the inflation, high interest rates, what are people most worried about? peter: i think those three most ,. geopolitical environment, state sponsored cyber attacks, what does that do to a company. all of that is getting attention. it doesn't matter the industry. also, global expansion. the resistance for acquisitions and support for companies to be
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able to acquire big businesses outside of the united states gets challenging as well. david: why should someone come in the insurance business? what makes it exciting? peter: it's an industry that does not get its full credit for all that it does. we show up in moments that are critical for our customers and clients. ♪
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david: as we talk today there are lots of problems around the world. one is what's going on in israel, another is ukraine. how do you assess those risks? did you ever provide insurance to people in ukraine? peter: we had a business in russia prior to the russia-ukraine conflict. we do not have a big business in ukraine. but through lloyds, we did have exposure to some classes of business through the war.
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assessing that is very complicated. it's one that you need to manage how much you are going to underwrite a specific class that could have political violence or a war or terrorism. david: let's suppose i own a big factory, semiconductor chip factory in taiwan and i say to you, i want to get some insurance against the possibility that china might invade and destroy or take over my plant. is that the kind of thing you would do or is that too risky? peter: that would be too risky. there are some portions of what we call political violence coverage, but in areas where we know there is an exposure, it gets very hard to underwrite that. we would have very limited capacity to do something like that. david: you don't provide war insurance, pretty much. peter: david: no. do you provide flood insurance, i have a home in nantucket, i'm always worried of when the flood will come. is it hard to get? peter: it's hard to get but we
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do provide flood insurance. david: what's the fastest growing area of insurance? what are people most interested in, home insurance? peter: home insurance is a complicated one across the united states. one of the biggest growing areas of excess and surplus lines, it's alongside the regulated market. that has been growing significantly across the industry, as well as for energy. david: what has been the biggest challenge for the insurance industry over the last five or 10 years? peter: i think it's understanding the unpredictable risks of whether it was the pandemic, understanding what could happen with potential war break out. but also climate change. as i said before, having that type of hurricane activity -- we've had 100 natural disasters reported through nine months of this year. that just hasn't happened in the past. david: if i'm trying to learn the insurance business, what's the most important thing to
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assess if an industry is a good industry to invest in? what should people like me look at? peter: depending on how sophisticated the person is looking at it, is the strength of the balance sheet, consistency of performance is important. if you get surprises from catastrophes or other variables, it's very hard to predict what will happen with that insurance company in the future. then i look at the leadership in terms of the track record and developing business that have sustainable long-term profitability. david: the insurance business has been a strong one in the united states, are we still the leader in global insurance or are there companies that are more significant now? peter: very big companies in china, very big in japan market and big companies market i in europe. i think those of the four areas, including the united states, that have very large market cap multinational insurance companies. david: in aig, what is the
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biggest challenge you face as the ceo of aig? what are you most worried about? peter: all of what is happening geopolitically, we have just come out of the pandemic, the complexities across the world on their fragility of what might happen in the future is what i worry about the most. if you told me five years ago you are going to come in and be the ceo and deal with a global pandemic, to wars, potential political tension across the world, and also dealing with financial challenges, that is a lot. making sure that we focus and deliver on what we can do as an insurance company and adapt to all the changes going on around us. david: for young professionals at my watch and say, i'm looking for a job, maybe i should get in the insurance business, what makes it so exciting? peter: i think our purpose and what we do for a living is very meaningful.
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we keep businesses inside of cities moving after natural disasters or moving claims and allowing companies to build. a lot of times, in order to lend you need to have insurance. i think it's an industry that does not get its full credit for all that it does. i think our purpose is incredibly meaningful and we show up in moments that are really critical for our customers and clients. david: you have done a good job with dealing with a complicated situation because aig has been at a turnaround around ever since the government bailout. today, you would say it's financial shape is pretty good? peter: i think it's very good. the progress that we've made with having so many tremendous people here that have had a single purpose of putting aig back to being an industry leader, that we've strengthened every component of the company, the balance sheet, underwriting capabilities, our investment portfolio is simpler, the
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company is simpler, operations are streamlined. we've made enormous progress and i feel like we have a lot to do still. ♪ when you own a small business every second counts. 120 seconds to add the finishing touches. 900 seconds to arrange the displays. if you're short on time for marketing constant contact's powerful tools can help. you can automate email and sms messages so customers get the right message at the right time. save time marketing with constant contact. because all it takes is 30 seconds to make someone's day. get started today at constantcontact.com. helping the small stand tall.
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