haidi: market just come online.

annabelle: we are cutting down to asia major market trading opened at the top stories this hour. the s&p 500 closes in historic high as the federal reserve signals its on track to cut rates for the first time in two years. haidi: officials maintaining the outlook for three cuts this year suggesting that the reason of tech inflation -- is an uptick in inflation. annabelle: reddit is at $34 a piece, it sold more than 15,000 shares in the offering. breaking news at the top of the hour, the hkma keeping its base rate at 5.75%. no big surprises given the hkma is not an independent authority, it follows that that in its policy changes but certainly the organization has been under pressure given this is an environment that has been part

of the baha'i fed rate environment and the weakness in the chinese economy, something not easy for hong kong to be in, really. haidi: not at all, we monitor the singling out of the fat and in a lot of ways perhaps the fed meeting, the guidance, the tweaks to the dot plot did not change much of anything. probably anticipated despite the absence of any expectations of the rate change which speaks to how powerful forward guidance is in terms of being a policy tool. the forecast, the dot plot offered it being quite neutral. we expect that to play through in a positive way when it comes to the asian trading session. it is creeping online, broadly we are expecting equities across the region to rally in this thursday session and we have u.s. stocks and a fresh high indicating that the fed would meet expectations with three rate cuts this year. they're saying quite a bit of

upside when it comes to pressures including gold, take a look at the aussie dollar, holding pretty steady at 65.96, i want to take a quick look at new zealand because it has been a little bit of negative headlines passing through today. the economy new zealand frank in the final three quarters -- final three months, there was a reaction when it came to the kiwi dollar. my minute rate cuts, the double-dip recession amid tightening policy by the rbn said it was flying up now, we saw gdp dropping .1% in the fourth quarter following the decline of .3%. expectations for .1% growth and we got that recovery. the dollar-yen looking close to the 1.51. divergence is the theme between

the bank of japan and the fat and there seems to be that wide gap there. try not futures looking mildly positive -- china futures are looking mildly positive. annabelle: we have the u.s. futures coming online, taking a look at the s&p 500 in particular here, the level he talked about in the session overnight a closing at the historic 5200 mark. it has been a series of record highs for u.s. equities over the course of this year, really being led continued by the magnificent seven and again it was not the nasdaq, the heavy index which rose two point 2%. investors breathing a sigh of relief given we got the continuity around the expectations for fed because over the course of this year. treasuries, we saw a rise in those and we are continuing to track those. particularly the reaction in bonds.

want notes are a little higher, one of the key commodities we tracked was spot gold and we saw that rising to 2000 an ounce for the first time and it is down to what the fed chair jerome powell said around the expectation for rate cuts. spot gold actually has been up more than 10% so far this year. as we said the focus very much on the meeting, we got from jerome powell under pressure -- and the oppressor and here are some highlights of what he said. jerome powell: the timing cycle are likely to b -- the tightening cycle may be appropriate to dial back this year. ongoing progress bringing down the -- stronger inflation in the first half of the year. i do not know if we know this is

a bump on the road or something more. they're looking for data to confirm the readings we had last year. my instinct would be that rates are not going to go back down to the very low levels that we saw. haidi: let us a spring in the former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. is good to have you on the day after fed day -- it is good to have you on the day after fed day. jerome powell hit the nail on the head when he said we just do not know. >> i think chair powell stuck to the narrative that we have been hearing for some time, both in terms of the direction of the economy as well as the direction of policy. no real new ground was broken in this meeting. there was not a strong hawkish pivot, although there was the

migration of some of the dots in the summary of economic projections. more in the direction of three, very strong consensus now of three great cuts this year. haidi: three cuts on the dot plot, does that seem dovish given the revisions we have seen to unemployment? >> i think -- most of the members of the committee are staying with their views going into this meeting and that is that the number of cuts would either be three or two. what was interesting in looking at the dots is that there are four people in december who actually had uppercuts and that group moved out. there is only one left of that four.

they all moved into the three or the two category. i think they are gelling around a view that will depend of course on the data. most importantly, the inflation data. haidi: this is following an unhurried stance from jerome powell and you talked about the need for more tightening and i understand it is always data dependent. how do you feel about the strength of the data we have had so far? does it tell you that it is a bump in the road? maybe it is a sinus only more structural? >> we do not know really yet, the fourth quarter historically has been somewhat odd or quirky over the years in many cases. it could be first quarter quirkiness, seasonality that is not captured in seasonal adjustments. that kind of thing. i think they simply have to wait for another meeting or two or another month or two at least

to get another perspective on the recent inflation numbers that we have seen which in cases of the consumer numbers have gone sideways. the producer price index actually shot up a bit. and of the reports have been consistent with the disinflationary story. it will take a little bit of time for them to understand what was happening in january and february. annabelle: we got those outboard revisions as you said to the growth and the right or cast, beyond this year, there is the suggestion that policymakers now believe that the mutual interest rate has moved higher, does that mean it takes a higher fed funds rate to achieve that given level of restrictiveness? >> i think what it means is as of today, looking forward, and believe me, it is difficult to look much beyond one year.

these are speculative numbers. the sense of the committee is the resting point when they actually bring this whole cycle to an end. that is a rate cutting cycle, it is likely to be at a higher rate than perhaps previously believed. haidi: we have seen the market reaction to this, u.s. equities pushing higher and the movement treasuries off of the back, given what we have got and the boost to financial conditions as well that is running counter to the fed's price mandate that we need to have more of a hawkish adjustment today for that? >> if you want to take the froth off of the market, then, something very hawkish even suggesting these are holding the current rate setting or even the rate increase would probably do that. that is not really in the cards at the moment and i do not think

the committee sees that future. they see a future in which the real decision is going to be when did they cut for the first time? they expect that to be sometime later this year. it remains to be seen whether it is may, june, july, september. november or december. it appears to be a pretty strong sentiment that they are going to start that cycle later in the year. annabelle: it does seem though that policymakers are sort of less -- they have less conviction rather than saying two bases or two cuts would be appropriate. how much conviction is there on the committee as well? >> that conviction is in my experience, the conviction is always a little bit shaky, simply because you cannot predict the future and you do not know how the data is going to come in. given what they can see today

and their sense of the way things will play out, it appears to me that we are seeing increasing conviction that they will do three cuts. none of 18 people rested on 3 -- 9 of 18 people rested on three cuts. i think it is easy to convince four or five more. it is a clear majority that are circling around three cuts. some preferring two. nonetheless, i think it will be -- you have to say that there is strong conviction at this point, early in the year and the committee. haidi: how worried one day be about the have and have not situation? when it comes to consumers and businesses it feels like a tale of two economies, those who

account for the most spending are pretty flush with cash but at the same time we see increasing delinquencies, smaller businesses. budgetary policy is a pretty blunt tool. is this something that would be top of mind for the committee and for the fed chair? >> in a certain sense, they are always simply trying to do the best thing for the broad economy. which is where most people live. most people do not live in the financial economy. the broad, mainstream so-called real economy. they understand that there are many people who would live pay paycheck-to-paycheck and the economy and if they allow inflation to surge, it is harmful for people living in tight household budgets. at the same time, they cannot target monetary policy to help one group or another.

it is a blunt tool in the sense that it can only deal with the broad forces of demand across the economy and they cannot help one group at the expense of the other or favor one group. haidi: we heard from jerome powell three years ago and of course it was at the height of the pandemic times talking about the inequality of the downturn and the inequality of the uptick in the economy, do you think in that sense there would be more angling for reasons to cut? >> the question. -- good question. in the mind of some members of the committee, if you cut you are making live each of people who are power and they are making ends meet using

credit cards or young couples were trying to buy a house or whatever it may be. i'm sure that is in the minds of some people on the committee, having said that, i do not think that is how the decision is made. it is a decision made by stepping back and saying what is the best thing for the overall economy? which would be all income cohorts, all social groups. on geographies. that is the way they make the final decision on the setting of the policy rate. annabelle: dennis lockhart, a former atlanta fed president, great having you following the fed decision. coming up, legal trouble brewing for apple as the u.s. justice department prepares to file a lawsuit against the tech giant over antitrust violations. we have more details, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh haidi: bloomberg has learned

that the u.s. justice department is poised to sue apple for antitrust violations as soon as thursday. sources tell us the laws it would accuse apple of walking rivals from the software features on iphones. the reporter is among -- our

report is among those who broke the story, it comes as apple is facing scrutiny in europe and this is not the first time apple has been up against the doj here either. it is a lot more scrutiny on big tech? anna: we have known this complaint was coming for a while, the justice department started this in 2019 during the dollop of administration and took a backseat to other cases they were working on and we have learned of this complaint is ready for prime time. one thing we know about jonathan kanter, the attorney general in charge of antitrust is he is focused on crafting a compelling narrative in his complaints. it is not just what we see tomorrow, it is not just who has legal language, he is going to form a narrative of how this is harming consumers. haidi: this is the third time the justice department has sued apple for antitrust issues over

the last 14 years. what sets this apart? what kind of resident and continuation of woes could this mean for the company? anna: that is a great question. it is in line of what we have seen from other countries whose laws have related to apps, like south korea. they have had cases from the european commission. there is this global discussion about how app stores like apple and google can really craft the rules of the stores to benefit he own products. hurting their competitors. their competitors products like apple music depend on accessing customers via those app stores. there is a global examination of these business practices and what it means for market competition. haidi: you mentioned the compelling narrative that the doj wants to put together, what

is likely to be the compelling narrative and response from apple on this? anna: apple will say that the majority of market share is among smartphones -- you do not have a share of the market. that monopolistic behavior. haidi: they seem to be having some technical difficulties, there speaking to anna that was our security reporter. much more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo haidi: read is pricing -- reddit is present at 34 dollars per share, it says in psalm 22 million shares, katie joins us

from san francisco. take us through the appetite for this launch and how it was received? >> read it priced --reddit price at the top of the range, they are marketing at a valuation of 6.4 billion which is lower than the 10 billion that was valued at in 2021 at the height of the tech boom. at this current marketed range, it looks like there is investor demand. annabelle: investor demand but there is a sort of shorting plan that is taking place as well. thousands of members of the wall street bets form are shorting the stock or talking about that -- forum are shorting the stock or talking about that. perceived deficiencies in reddit ? what are they and how valid are

those concerns? katie: the price of reddit was determined on the investor roadshow or baggers are meeting with institutional investors, ones that will be the major anchor investors and they are saying we will buy it at this price and this much. that is what is calculated. as for the part about rumors on reddit, shorting this, it could impact the software was to begin the training. it will not open until tomorrow u.s. time. then, they can begin training it -- trading it. this is only for the insiders. unless they are one of the top reddit users which reddit allowed to participate in the actual ipo, they were not even have the opportunity to shorten it yet until it begins trading -- short it yet until it begins trading. annabelle: i was asking about

the concerns of the lack of profitability at competitive concerns. talk us through those? katie: yes, i think if you care about profitability, reddit is not the best one. they have been around for 19 years and it is a struggle for them to turn a profit. there are a lot of people that are skeptical about reddit. even if you look at snapchat as a comp, their ad revenue has not given them that great of a multiple. it is hard to say, what will happen right now, it has been a really difficult couple of years for ipos, reddit said in 2021 they were going to ipo, they were on file and they have been waiting. maybe it is still not the perfect moment. at the end of the day they have shareholders and employees and investors. the need to provide liquidity

for the shareholders so they decided now is the time. haidi: some of those shareholders are users, 8% being reserved for these users. how risky is that given the essences of revolt that we have touched on -- instances of revolt we have touched on? katie: if some of these users are to buy shares and quickly turned them around and sell them, that could put downward pressure on the stock. the idea behind this is because the ipo price is seen as a discount because of the bankers trying to price a pop or gains for day one, it is supposed to be rewarding their top users. by getting them access to this price that is not available to the broader public. haidi: that was katie roof in san francisco and you can learn more about reddit's ipo from the

ceo happening later on thursday at 11:30 in new york. another stark debut we are watching us the discount store chain operated crown holdings had to drive you in tokyo. this is after the ipo raised $256 million with shares at the top of the range. it is the largest listing in japan since october. trial's listing cons as investors flocked on japanese stocks after corporate profits. we will have more to come back

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>> i think this is a signal and the market is taking it as that, it will tolerate slightly and higher inflation for longer. >> the threshold to cut rates is

higher than many people thought but they are not talking about raising rates even though they have higher inflation. >> i think this is a fed that wants the soft landing to continue. >> they also are not willing to raise rates again and i think that's important. >> we think they will cut rates this year, and we've said it depends on the data. >> it's closer to a two cut situation. >> the fed is still trying to get the inflation down to 2%. i think how things monetary policy is restricted. >> some of our guests reacting to the latest fed decision and looking at markets online this morning, the asx 200 half an hour into trading, seeing that strong rally so far in the session it through -- in the session.

attracts through overnight. there's been a series of rises this year. the sectors moving the most overnight, the story of big tech and you're seeing some strong gains coming through for i.t. nikkei futures also to track it, singapore contract starting to trade and there is that focus. perhaps we will see another record high for the nikkei after we passed the 40,000 mark for the first time ever. a very strong day and it was the focus on big tech, given we have the expectation reaffirm we will see rate cuts over the course of the year. one of the names we are watching is micron, look at the surge. what has driven that is a strong revenue forecast for the corn -- the current quarter. there seeing revenue will be up to $6.8 billion. the average estimate was for

$5.99 billion. that's a very strong beat. let's discuss because our next guest says memory chips may look at a super cycle of growth. daniel joins us. demand for anything ai chip related seems insatiable at this point in time daniel: it will proceed every part. people are starting to wonder what is after nvidia? memory chips are one of the areas and we saw with micron it was a huge turn, from over a billion dollar loss last quarter to nearly a billion in profits this quarter. we are seeing it with others. broadcom had some compelling

data that showed their numbers are going to see a big raise because of ai. it's everywhere, contagious, exciting and driving a lot of speculation in the market. haidi: in particular, high-bandwidth memory chips are becoming more and more critical in this space. where do you see the competition in that? daniel: we will see samsung and sk i and micron all playing with this high-bandwidth memory. there will be partnerships announced. we saw nvidia and samsung. testing performance numbers showed more performance, lower heat is the patient -- heat dissipation. the point is they're all pointing toward higher bandwidth memory and it will enable these next-generation ai workloads.

as you see the demand for ai chips continue to grow exponentially, you have to understand there are things like memory and networking that will move alongside them. if you are an investor and you say i missed the nvidia wave -- you probably haven't long-term but short-term -- you have to be excited about the jump micron is experiencing. haidi: what are the downside risks? we talk about a super cycle but what are the downside risks that could derail the narrative? daniel: you are seeing a lot of ai bought by a small subsection of buyers like aws, microsoft,meta. they need to find ways to monetize what they are building. they are building ai factories and this means consumers need to be using this technology, consuming it or you can start to

see the investment. all the buying we are seeing of gpu's and infrastructure could slow down and that would hurt the ecosystem down to the software providers. they are building the software ecosystems and they need to sell. finding ways to get the enterprises to consume more ai, consumers to consume more ai. we haven't really seen that yet, most of the numbers have been on the gpu side, how many chips are sold into these data center providers. we need to see them consumed by beginner price and everyday consumers. annabelle: i was wondering about this yesterday, i was speaking to someone in the industry talking about how the competition for large language models is sort of done at this point, it will really be concentrated among big tech firms. do you think the concentration risk we talk on a customer base for things like gpu chips is

overblown? daniel: i think the amount of compute required will continue to grow. the amount of compute and networking required, and you will see all the proprietary data. you heard justin long talking about nims. not getting too geeky about the technology but they're trying to get closer to the proprietary enterprise data, whether it's health care systems, understanding diagnostic data, financial services, understanding fraud or transaction data. building models that are more specific to industries as opposed to these large language models or image generating models using the same set of data for seemingly everyone. that market is somewhat defined already. we will want to keep increasing the compute power, reducing latency, making the experience and better but you will need compute for all of those enterprises and that enterprise

opportunity is where you will see productivity gains and efficiency created but we need to see that turn into a real number. total cost of ownership and return on investment is what investors and cfos should be looking at. haidi: a note on china, the restrictions of the market are massive for major players and conversely for the restrictions coming from the geopolitical overlay in the longer since for beijing. we seen huawei perhaps prove it can still progress and excel despite restrictions. daniel: if you are thinking about china and saying they will somehow acquiesce to the u.s. or west with chip controls, you have to understand that's not how china is doing business. china is finding ways, with some of the things they've been able to do in some of the software

they've developed on mobile devices that has taken meaningful market share from apple. of course it will be pushing process faster and will be part of the performance but china is not just going to wait and step aside. for u.s. cup and is there's a ton of demand and china, you've got u.s. companies from your qualcomms and intels. having said that, there's so much a demand on the leading edge ai chips that china, if it delays further is not necessarily going to hurt numbers yet but it is something to watch for sure. annabelle: daniel -- haidi: daniel, great to have you. let's get back to the fed.

garf, expected to be a boring meeting, more or less met expectations. if you look at some aspects of the reaction, was it may be more dovish than expected? garfield: short-term dovish i think is the key message. really important moment for markets was when powell pushed back against the idea that the january, february inflation readings, while robust, there were bumps in the road. there wasn't anything that indicated the road was about to change in its direction. given that in the last two weeks or so when we had the quiet period, there were strong expectations the fed would seriously consider increasing its dot plot, taking one of those projected rate cuts out from this year, that was a relief.

i think in particular for equities, maybe a little less so for the bond market. he also stressed he doesn't see rates going back to where they were in previous times, they will likely be higher, and they did take a rate cut out of the 2025 projections. annabelle: that short-term dovish sentiment has been giving a boost to stocks, what we are seeing for asia today in the u.s. session. how likely is that to last based on the latest survey? garfield: the latest survey somewhat surprisingly was not that bullish for equities or bonds. it showed the immediate expectation was yes, stocks would make fresh highs, but however with something like just under 5400 -- 5450 or so, that's

where the s&p is seen as ending this year, that's only a little more than a 4% gain by that stage. we've already has stocks up about 4% this year, a significant loss of momentum, or perhaps a move significantly higher but then to come down once things start to go badly enough for the economy that the fed does move to cut rates. for treasuries, the peak for 10 year yields is not yet in. that is something of a surprising forecast from the survey, given the fed sticking with 75 basis points of cuts this year, is not particularly worried about inflation, that would be more than 20 basis points higher than now and above the year to date peak of 4.35%. trouble is still brewing for the bond market is the message from

respondents. haidi: what does that tell us about the dynamic between the boj and the fed and where they are at when the dollar was weaker against everything except the yen? garfield: that speaks very strongly to the still lingering impact of this very dovish hike on tuesday. they said they would stick with a combination the only thing that seemed to get the yen motoring overnight was a nikkei report that was pre-sketchy -- pretty sketchy, putting out there the idea that the boj could get deliver one or more hikes later this year. if you get that you would get the yen rising. the survey helped underscore that and the dollar is not seen as gaining as much or declining by the year's end and the yen is seen as the most likely major

currency to outperform this year. that's in the backdrop. the worst major this year down almost 7%. the potential is there for the yen to gain but it needs more than just the fed tending toward accommodation, it needs action from the boj. there was some commentary after the boj, meaning the fed was back in the driver seat for the yen. i think it's more of a dual drive dynamic at the moment with the boj to some extent holding the casting vote on where japan's currency goes. haidi: garfield reynolds there could we have much more ahead on "daybreak:australia." ♪

when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh annabelle: a top u.s. admiral says signs suggest china is sticking to its ambitions to be ready to invade taiwan by 2027. he says beijing is building its military nuclear arsenal on a scale not seen since world war ii. let's bring in our correspondent in washington, d.c.

this is a very sobering assessment and runs counter to some of the other findings lately that have suggested china wouldn't be ready for such military action. roxanne: hello, thanks for having me. it's a very sobering assessment and much more clear and we have heard in the past u.s. lawmakers, officials and military leaders have debated whether president xi has intentions for taiwan, especially in light of his 2027 target for his nation's military to become a world-class force. the same admiral nearly a year ago testified to congress it would be everyone guessing what the chinese plans are. today when he spoke before the armed services committee, a key

defense committee in the house, he said a sickly the defense buildup, the money china is putting behind its defense enterprise, the fact it has 400 aircrafts, more than 300 ships which is more than the united states has now, and have done various exercises and simulations to simulate a potential invasion of taiwan, this all points toward an effect that it is readying to do so. haidi: we know military spend has been increasing the past few years but military readiness and investment is different to strategic readiness. what's being discussed when it comes to beijing having domestic distractions at the moment? roxana: that's part of the question, the corruption, the

economic downturn. however, the admiral a sickly said despite the economic downturn, the defense budget has increased significantly basically since he started, grown over 16% so this is a very focused attempt to build up defense despite the other challenges. the intelligence world and defense world in the united states is very torn about whether china is going to be able to invade taiwan. haidi: a lot depending on happens after the u.s. election.

roxana with that story. china's foreign minister is in sydney to meet with business leaders as part of his trip and also a prominent critic of australia's stance toward china. paul allen joins us. this is about the former prime minister, a bit of a thorn in the government side. paul: definitely, the question is why, it's someone who stopped being prime minister 28 years ago. but you are right, he's been a critic of his own parties china policy. he also says taiwan is not a vital interest for australia. in that context, per drops -- perhaps not surprising the call for meeting has happened. it has been said that he has his own views but he doesn't speak

for the trillion government. others call it a calculated humiliation of the government as china policy. while he is in sydney he will meet with think tanks, he's met with a number of businesses, some big mining companies. this underscores the strong economic relationship australia and china have a but in some respect they are miles apart. haidi: we are watching the press conference taking place in canberra. the defense minister is speaking at the conference saying the nuclear submarine packed is proceeding at pace, as we saw australia and the u.k. signing the defense and security cooperation and we have that statement from the defense minister, saying the somewhat

controversial packed progressing at pace. with the trip ending, we have this british delegation, it is going on? paul: its interesting timing. he has this other meeting aimed at containing china in many respects and the agreement you referred to, that's a status forces agreement. britain hadn't signed anything like this with anyone not a nato ally and it establishes a framework that allows the military to operate in foreign countries, in each other's countries. it's a very unique in special extension to australia. the u.k. defense secretary is in australia, as is the foreign secretary david cameron. they will have a defense ministers meeting and then they will head to adelaide, which is where australia's warships get built. we are expecting an announcement

, the national broadcast is saying that it will likely be the submarines. annabelle: we've had breaking numbers coming out from japan, trade figures for the month of february. the export level have come in better than expected, exports rising 7.8% on the year, the survey reading have been 5.1%. imports pretty much in line with estimates, a gain of 1.5 percent, meeting the consensus, but certainly in improvement for the month prior when there was a contraction of nearly 10%. the deficit narrowing to 379.4 billion yen. looking ahead to the open of japanese equities at the top of the hour and futures indicating we will see a strong pop at the open. more ahead, this is bloomberg.

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>> we still think monetary policy is tied, we still think we will get more confident about getting inflation down to 2% and we still think we will cut rates this year. i've said over and over again it depends on the data. haidi: taking a look at that

reaction. we are hearing from bill dudley. we are looking optimistic in terms of the carry through to the asia session, to echo the big u.s. gains. a fairly dovish set of signaling from the fed. benchmarks across asia looking to rally after that near-the s&p 500, raising gains nearly 8%. new zealand despite the double-dip recession data that came through, so seeing s&p futures positive as well. ♪

annabelle: we are counting down

to asia's major market opens and for any investor that was out there concerned about a hawkish adjustment from the fed overnight, it did not come through and the markets seem to be reading a sigh of relief right now. haidi: in fact, when you take a look at the upgrades to pc expectations, gdp and unemployment, perhaps more dovish than we expected and you see that playing out. wit come to japan, watching the weakness in the yen, what we potentially see for the gps, coming after the holiday as well as a new record for the nikkei. annabelle: a lot of different levels to be tracking, and the japanese yen getting closer to the 151 mark. you got the broader index moving higher, strong gains across the board for japanese equities at the start of trade. we are all about the levels but the level to