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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  February 29, 2024 7:00pm-8:00pm EST

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>> this is daybreak asia, we are counting down to the market open. haidi, it is the focus on where central banks go next. we have the fed coming in meeting estimates. that helps us think perhaps three fed cuts over this year. the boj, mixed messages. one of the ministers of the boj saying something different. haidi: how much will they temper the expectations set up from the previous signaling. the target is not insight but there is that sense, to borrow the words of mary daly from the san francisco fed, the readiness is coming into sight for a number of central banks. let's look at how markets are deciphering this at the open. annabelle: from the japan perspective, the tight labor
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market. we had those jobs numbers and the last half hour. the unemployment rate falling to 2.4%, revised 2.5% a month earlier. that puts upward pressure on wages. we want to see sustained salary gains for the boj to shift his policy settings. -- its policy settings. perhaps tempering expectations of the market. he has been in brazil after a meeting of g20 finance chiefs saying they are not in that position yet to see sustained stable inflation target countering what came through from a board member yesterday, saying the price target was finally coming into sight. just some of the different headlines about the boj, but ueda is saying the inflation target is not insight.
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markets wise, the japanese yen holding that 1.50 mark. stocks are a little more positive. that preferred inflation gauge for the fed meeting estimates, holding the 2% target for the u.s. but it does allay any concerns about researching inflation. -- resurging inflation. we did see u.s. stocks hitting record highs. breaking news we had south korea releasing its trade data. what we are seeing is exports beating or parsing what economists expected of a rise of 4.8% on the year. that is will pass the survey of 1.4%. it does play into the global demand for chips. it is steady but supporting economic recoveries in south korea. the import numbers
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better-than-expected on the year. exports, rather. imports has a contraction territory, down 13%, worse than what economists had been casting. and the trade balance, quite a difference. haidi: look at australian stocks in terms of the standouts, we are seeing the australian market soaring to a record high. this is a market set for a bull market coming off 20% on the 2022 lows. if you look at the market leaders at the moment, materials after session highs -- off the session highs for leading the pack. tech stocks are doing quite well. materials are based on the support of fact that we have seen a few weeks of weakness coming off that four-month low.
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that is giving some support to the heavyweight minors in sydney. the aussie dollar was give-and-take when it comes to the dollar index overnight, reacting more negatively to that inflation print. we are seeing treasury futures that extended their climb, aussie bonds rising in reaction as well. yields have retreated from the highest levels of the year after we had that preferred measure of inflation, preferred by the fed, we should say, matching estimates for january. the rate cut expectations begin in june have been remaining intact. oil headed for that weekly advance. we are waiting for opec-plus members to make their production decision early in the month. energy markets have been seeing
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steady rises. again, tight ranges when it comes to trading in crude. let's bring in our next guest. he is looking into gains in japan. marc franklin, managing director, manulife investment management, great to have you with us. what tactical long positions would you be pulling back from, and where do you see further opportunities for this market? marc: good morning. we have been positive on japan for a while. there was a strong run by the nikkei and growth in other parts of the market. the conversations that we saw in the market yesterday from the policy board highlights we are approaching a judgment point for the bank of japan. we have the spring wage negotiations coming up.
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if they prove to be positive, the bank of japan may conclude that would be an underpinning for price inflation to remain at the 2% target. that may encourage a modest marginal shift in monetary policy particularly around negative interest rate and potential yield curve control. what that might catalyze is rotation within japanese equity markets. at the lease what it might do is reverse the profound weakness in the yen, including the u.s. dollar in the last year, and that creates a short-term headwind for japanese equities. that is why we are selectively and modestly taking profit and looking into gains today, because we are approaching a point of judgment for the bank of japan. haidi: adjacent to japan, coming to the same themes and policy narratives, south korea has stage quite a turnaround. are you optimistic about the number of announcements we are seeing?
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we have scant details but a lot of investor optimism, is that a good option? marc: like japan, korea has suffered from a corporate governance for many years. it is a low valuation equity market. some of that is due to the fact it has a cyclical mix but it is due to corporate governments and shareholder return policies, or lack thereof. the governments and south korea is genuinely serious about creating a watershed moment. you will see more of the large companies reassess their shareholder return policies, whether dividend policy come across shareholdings, so we think this theme could have spilled over into japan but it may take quarters for this to be a widespread example rather than a few corporate examples. annabelle: we had that preferred
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inflation gauge from the fed overnight above the 2% target but not panicking investors because it seems like inflation could be coming down. three fed rate cuts are priced in, do you think that is the right approach? marc: if we come back to the beginning of the year, the market was pricing between six and seven rate cuts, and the fed meeting was for three, so the market took the view the fed was incorrect and there would be more room to cut rates. three of those rate cuts have been priced out. what that probably suggests is there will be a narrow window of relatively stable bond trading. yields being fairly range bound, that creates an opportunity for investors to get exposure to the elements of the fixed income markets, whether the u.s. treasury market or a high-yielding market such as new zealand and australia. we think for the time being, a
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rate pricing will be stable but as we head towards the middle of the year, the may and june meetings for the fed, they will be forced into reassessing whether current pricing and the tightening of the cuts remains appropriate. we will have more data around inflation and growth. one of the things we are wary of is the u.s. is running a large fiscal deficit with no sign of a more modest fiscal approach. financial additions a broader easy. does that catalyze a renewed pickup in inflation and the second half of the year? that may challenge rate cut pricing in the market not just for 2024 about 2025. annabelle: we are seeing that impact of higher rates playing out on the more regional lenders in the u.s. but smaller banks as well. nycb taking that huge hit to its earnings, around $2.4 billion. i'm curious what you are seeing
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in terms of that regional banking risk and whether you see that spilling over into asia, and those lenders that have high commercial real estate exposure, is that something you are tracking? marc: yes. one of the things that is apparent, those banks regional in the u.s. and overseas have significant exposure to the office commercial real estate market are being forced into valuation re-appraisals. that has hit nycb hard. we have seen write-downs, and a bank in germany has a lot of exposure to the office sector. we need to look at other real estate sectors because there is an occupancy issue. and a rental payment issue, that is also in commercial. some of the housing subsegments,
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what we would say is because of the percentage in commercial real estate being that much higher in the u.s. regional banks, we think it is more of a challenge for the regional banks than the banking system as a whole. we do not see it as a systemic risk yet but it creates an opportunity to express sectoral preferences on the long and short side in a small to mid cap space in the u.s. annabelle: marc franklin, managing director, manulife investment management. still ahead, we will speak exclusively as the international expansion plans gain traction and momentum. cheng siak kian joins us shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪ as the head of hr, i help lead a successful home security firm.
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our teams work hard to secure our customers' most valuable assets. and while they do that, i work hard to secure ours... ...our people. that's why we chose principal to provide the benefits and retirement plan that show our people just how much we appreciate them. benefits help us keep top talent. —hey mom. benefits help us grow. because we know how important security is to all. ♪♪ annabelle: china's top leaders
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have pledged to meet economic targets since the 24 member politburo met. our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle, looks at the challenges faced by lawmakers in beijing. >> the national people's
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congress is china's annual session of parliament, convened usually every spring and the great hall of the people next to tiananmen square in central beijing. the npc sets the political agenda for the year ahead when 3000 delegates from around the country get their marching orders on day one in the form of a lengthy work report. while regarded as the highest organ of state power, the npc operates under the direction of the communist party of china. the npc legislates and executes the directives of the party. the roughly two week affair is known as -- the two sessions. the npc is preceded by a gathering of the chinese people's political consultant of conference, an advisory body supposedly representing views from the broader society and business community. even though party membership is
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not required to be in the cppcc it is advised by the communist party. haidi: talks at the wto and abu dhabi have been extended for a fifth day. nations are struggling to reach agreements on key issues. paul allen joins us with more. it is quite divisive and complex, what are the sticking points? >> one is around this area of stock holding it has nothing to do with stocks but countries buying grains from farmers predetermine prices. that looks like a subsidy by any other name. india says this is about food security for 800 million extremely poor people. then you have trade purists saying this is distorting the trade environment and preventing these countries from exporting.
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there were issues around fisheries and the need to protect fish. indonesia calls this a matter of life and death when it comes to feeding people. the small fisheries are not part of the problem. then issues that are connected like around e-commerce. at the moment there are tariffs due to expire but in talks they can be used as a bargaining chip to get movement. it is a complex and intertwined issue. annabelle: given those complexities, the chance this conference ends without an agreement or stalemate -- or statement, rather, what is the chance of a stalemate? >> there is always a real chance there is no statement. it would not be the first. there is a chance to get a watered-down statement.
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as dark as it looks, you have to remember there were more than 100 60 countries involved in these talks. 17 paragraphs of text have been agreed. plenty of encouraging signs. some things are proceeding in a good way, others in not such a good way. but ireland's trade minister put it well saying there is a lot of pessimism but sometimes you get this before you get big breakthrough agreements. and that this has pushed into a fifth day, we are likely to get a resolution one way or another. there is a will for all member nations to keep pushing to see what can be achieved. haidi: paul allen with the latest. president biden says he remains hopeful about a cease-fire in gaza but it is unlikely to begin by monday. he is warning a deadly
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confrontation around in a convoy in gaza will complicate negotiations. these two are connected stories we are looking at because he had been hopeful but by early next week a cease-fire would take effect. >> that looked optimistic because of the mood music on other fronts but he did speak with the egyptian and qatari leaders yesterday, and there is a push to get going. the problem is, there were scores of palestinians killed or injured in the violence that occurred in northern gaza where some aid trucks came in from israel. they were swarmed by people desperate for food. there are conflicting reports on what occurred. some say there were aggressive
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moves towards israeli soldiers, who fired in response. others say the trucks were trying to escape. people were crushed. a lot of people are dead or hurt, and that makes it more difficult to square the circle. hamas says this takes the cease-fire off the agenda. we have to wait and see. the idea is there would be six weeks of a stop and fighting. hamas would release israeli hostages. israel release palestinians. there is more at stake if they can get it done but it is hard to see if this can be achieved or not. annabelle: you say the difficulty of squaring things up also comes out and other forms. we were discussing the wto not ending with the resolution but g20 was split over gaza and
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ukraine as well. >> yes, they cannot come up with a statement on those issues. it will come out as a statement from brazil, and brazil said the finance minister is not the forum for geopolitical issues but they have a lot of economic fallout. they referred bleakly to ukraine in the middle east conflict. there is a u.s. led group that has condemned russia and imposed stringent sanctions, and others who oppose the invasion have not done anything, and others who are sympathetic toward russia. on israel, most want a cease-fire, so there is more agreement but the u.s. is very powerful. they could not come to an agreement on that. haidi: you can get a round up of
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the stories you need to know to get your day going. you can customize your settings as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh annabelle: taking a look at how
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crypto prices are faring in today's session, it is pretty flat. we have not budged off that level for 24 hours. we are sticking around that point. it has been a big run up over the course of this week, and we are at a two year high. perhaps a wait and see for what is next but there are calls for
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bitcoin to go higher. the demand for bitcoin etf's and bitcoins, bitcoin minors cannot beat that with the supply in time. even at these levels, crypto is looking frothy. the bitcoin surged to its highest price in more than two years. novogratz expects the original token to end the year much higher. >> this is probably the first time in the history of bitcoin we have true price discovery. this is the first time anyone who wants to buy it has easy access. baby boomers have $85 trillion of wealth. their wealth is for the most part managed to investment advisors, half of them can buy
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the etf. you are seeing a step function of new owners in bitcoin which is driving a frenzy in the crypto ecosystem. bitcoin gets bought and some cell a little and try to catch up's and the altcoins. we have a frothy levels, you can see it in the funding rates of the altcoin market. and bitcoin and all the alts. you saw it in the equities, all the public sector woody bellwethers really went parabolic along with bitcoins. i would not be surprised to see some correction and consolidation but i am loathe to pick a bitcoin high because i think this is price discovery. will we test old high?
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most likely, and you will have some consolidation but i think we will end the year higher. sonali: what is the new low? >> we broke out from 45,000, so that would probably be what should hold us if there is a real correction. you never know what corrections come. some people shift their mindset. i don't think it will get there, it will correct to the mid-50's before taking off to a new high. we got pretty close. but i think -- partly this is, if you look at fidelity or big platforms that have so much baby boomer wealth, shifting 1%-3% of
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those assets encouraging customers to shift to bitcoin over time, which has been an amazing diversifier is a monster number. haidi: we have more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we want to avoid holding on all the way to 2%.
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then cause an unnecessary downturn. we are agile, and sitting in what i call the ready position. we are ready to make moves and adjust as the data demands us to do. right now the economy and policy are in a good place to do that. it will probably be appropriate if things go the way i expect, to see us reduce rates in the summertime. san francisco fed president mary daly speaking as the metric increase by the most in a year. take a look at what we are watching in the asian session. quite a bit of buoyancy, japan stocks extending gains by 0.8%. the topics putting out about a half percent. the rally in australia finally rising to the record high we have been waiting for for quite some time.
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lithium angle minors are dominating, but a little uptick when it comes to the iron ore minors as well. consumer staples also doing quite well but health care dragging. the sx up from the 2022 lows, we are set for a bull market close in this session. earlier we did speak to the governor who spoke about the need for patience and the decision-making that went into the ultimate decision to hold in this week's meeting. he is also speaking before the chamber of commerce in canterbury, saying inflation is too high but declining. expectations have declined but policy needs to stay restrictive for some time.
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he said 5.5%, the policy needs to stay at least for this calendar year. he does expect to normalize policy by next year. annabelle: just to recap some pmi data, pmi readings, private surveys pretty good update on the health of economies around the asian region. you are seeing those pretty stable across the board. not too big of moves in either direction. broadly a little bit of weakness has come into some markets. in indonesia, for instance, and thailand, slight deterioration. taiwan as well. others are picking up. not too much of a change. we track these closely because you want to see that south-north asia divide between the ones
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that can be more of commodity exporters, and the tech once in the northern asian region. they are all sensitive to what is happening in china's economy. asian pmi's just released here. haidi: the japan rating for manufacturing is the lowest since august 2020. it is an interesting macro picture that sets up for the bank of japan particularly as we head into continued tightness in the labor market. it will keep upward pressure on wages. governor ueda said wage growth is what they are scrutinizing. there have been mixed signals from boj policy makers about when they might pull the trigger on policy normalization. governor ueda says the price target is not insight. -- is not in sight. let's get more from our senior editor, on the balance of things
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in terms of the data, because we know central banks want to get back to looking at the data, what are the scenarios that could play out in the likelihood we are looking at? >> we had seen some conflicting signals from people over the last couple days, and to go back, the most clear signal was sent yet to end the negative interest rate. the boj price target has come into view. he said it would make sense now to downshift monetary policy gears. that is definitely a go signal. ueda came in a couple hours ago, he is in sao paulo at the g20 meeting, and he said mixed things. on one hand the weight situation is looking good, companies are coming through with fairly robust wage hikes, and in
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contrast he said the price view is not yet in sight. on that point going back to the data, let me point out that next tuesday we will get tokyo cpi stats for february. these are key stats, the leading indicator for national trend. in january the inflation rate came in at about 1.6%. we expect because of utility subsidies that kicked in a year ago that inflation will surge in february. the consensus says it will be about 2.5%. it is conceivable when those figures land on tuesday, that could be a really key component and piece of evidence that ueda could look at. it is possible he could say the goal has come into sight. that is a strong data signal.
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annabelle: would it mean the target is secure? over this week we have had a lot of japanese eco-points out, and they have been mixed. factory output, there was a plunge on the month. a tight labor market. what is the sense of japan and a technical recession? there is a lot to decipher. >> definitely. the recession was something we thought was a surprise. no one thought gdp would shrink for a second quarter at the end of last year, however since that time, ueda has set a couple of times that nothing has changed in terms of his assessment of the economy, he still believes the gradual economic recovery will continue and gain momentum. basically he is saying some of the bad stuff we have seen will not change the game plan for the
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boj at least in terms of the negative interest rate. it could affect what happens after the end of negative interest rates. if you thought they would hike again before the end of the year, maybe they won't do that. it is clear after the end of the negative interest rate policy settings will remain accommodative. and if there is another half basis point or couple basis points hike remains to be seen. haidi: we are due to get china's february pmi data in the next hour. bloomberg economics will see activity pullback due to the eight-day lunar holiday. china's top leadership plans to maintain targets. the politburo will submit work report next week to the national people's congress. global investors will look for
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more forceful stimulus measures as that npc gets underway. it is kind of a catch 22 because they have used the growth target to send a signal of strength and confidence. if they set it up too high and do not back it up with stimulus, they might miss it. i wonder what the right answer is. >> it is difficult to know what the right answer is as far as the target. what do they do to back it up? in general there is a growing sense that they need to do some big bazooka stimulus or at least moderately sized bazooka. but a bazooka. that is not something the regime has shown a lot of appetite for, however, they have done things to stop the stock market from falling. they have talked about helping
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the property sector. the central bank has made some using moves. they are getting to the stage where it looks like monetary stimulus has done about as much as it can. they need fiscal stimulus if you are going to significantly turn the economy around. you also need to find some way to fix the property sector which is not what you would expect to come out of the national congress anyway. that fiscal stimulus is needed. that would matter much more. if they could set a disappointing gdp target and go to stimulate, that would matter more than setting a more optimistic target and not providing that bazooka i was talking about. annabelle: we can keep with the theme of bazooka. what has not ended up being a
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bazooka is any sort of monetary stimulus from the pboc because there are a lot of concerns over the effectiveness of it. when funding costs are falling across chinese markets, are we setting up for a liquidity trap? >> yes, some people have said they are facing a balance sheet recession. there is skepticism but that does highlight that concern. a liquidity trap is win by lowering interest rates across the economy, you actually spur people to save more money because the flip of low interest rates for borrowers is low interest rates for lenders and depositors. chinese consumers are already facing a potential reason to save more because the real estate sector has not come down. that is were a lot of people have looked to put their money, invest in real estate. you say i do not want to invest
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in real estate, prices are coming down so i do not want big purchases, and interest rates are coming down so i need to put more of my own capital aside rather than spending because i am not sure what i will be able to fund my retirement with, how i will cope going forward. that is the liquidity trap that is looming. the low interest rates, the 30 year bond has dropped, that is unusual. all of that says we do not need anything much from the pboc. what we are looking for is the government to come to the party. haidi: next week we will be introducing a brand-new program focused on asia's biggest economy, bloomberg's "the china show" is your source for news and analysis.
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"the china show" premieres 9:00 p.m. more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. haidi: you are watching
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"daybreak: asia." a 4% increase in income following a year of international expansion. let's cross over to singapore. haslinda amin is standing by. haslinda: we are talking about -- he has been in that position for over a year. good to have you with us, first time with us in studio. looking at how the global environment is, you are in 12 countries, how are you assessing the business environment, and can you outdo the 4% increase in revenue you have seen? cheng: looking at the
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environment we are in, the increase we have seen is a big improvement for us. we have a one-off in 2022 because of the sale of properties. you look at the items, we are at 26%, and that is encouraging for us, but more importantly, we are seeing different signals and improvement, and that is an encouraging sign. if you look at the segments point-to-point, public transport and the adjacent business, we have something and we are growing what we have and winning real contracts in paris and stockholm. those are encouraging for us. haslinda: you have been expanding internationally. you bought a company in europe. other plans to raise more funds so you can more aggressively expand? cheng: we are in a fortunate position.
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the land transport business is a cash business. the balance is strong and we have enough credit lines. we do not need to raise funds. we are focused on expanding our strategy to grow the business. we look at point-to-point transport and public transport and this is where we look for opportunities. we will grow as appropriate. in australia we made a bid for the largest taxi company and that is in the process. we're going to go in march and hopefully april. haslinda: the bulk of your business, 60-40 is what we are seeing, is there any plan to counter that and get more off your revenue in the domestic market? cheng: singapore is a smaller market compared to the rest of the world but in that proportion we are not looking at whether it
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should be 60-40, but focused on a strategy. we are looking at where the best value is getting the best value for the shareholders. having a deliberate approach to growing the business. haslinda: you are increasing competition because of the deals that might go through. how might that play out for you, and how are you countering that potential competition? cheng: we have been very focused in terms of growing and strengthening our taxi business in singapore. we are looking at a good point-to-point business whether in the u.k. or australia. we see that is something we will continue to focus to deliver the best value for consumers. we see a position where the taxi will always play a role in the markets they are in. we know they provide better reliability and better value for
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the consumers in the long run. we want to make sure we deliver on that. we have to look at how to enhance the customer experience. we look at the typical taxi, and the delivery. haslinda: these are mega deals. might you won't have to come back with your own acquisition in singapore? cheng: if you look at singapore, we look at the taxi industry. how do we go forward? we focus on what we do to make sure we have an echo system to best bring value to the consumers. haslinda: no acquisition plans. in the chinese market we know the economy has been lackluster. is it back to pre-covid levels? cheng: in the past year it has been improving. it is not at pre-covid levels but we are seeing strong returns and recovery quarter on quarter in the chinese market.
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across china we have 9000 taxi's, 65% are fully electric. haslinda: the singapore market is undergoing a review. what do you hope to see? cheng: we want to see the ecosystem such that you have a vibrant taxi and market because the markets play different parts to fulfill the entire transportation sector, so what we want to see is making sure both parties have a right to compete on more equal footing, and allow us to strengthen the taxi market to serve the community better. haslinda: a lot of angst in the city about how difficult it is to get a cab despite the fact you have raised prices, why is that and how are you countering that challenge we are facing getting a cab? cheng: we need to get more taxi drivers, and we are looking for
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options to grow that, encourage more people to come in. haslinda: that is challenging? cheng: it is always challenging. haslinda: thank you so much for that. cheng siak kian, director / ceo, comfortdelgro corp.. haslinda: the angst, you cannot imagine. haidi: more to come here on "daybreak: a this is bloomberg. ♪ awkward question... is there going to be anything...
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-left over? -yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. empower. what's next. annabelle: jd.com is cutting
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price for its cloud services following alibaba's decision to discount as the ai boom helps trigger a growing price war in the hotly contested cloud business. let's get more. as we were discussing, this follows alibaba's move, they eased the market leader in the space david talk us through the size and scope of this price cut. >> jd.com posted yesterday and said cut all you like, we will fight to the end. they did not disclose percentages of the price cut but i think alibaba's price cut can give us a reference point. they said they would cut their price on over 100 products to is
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much as 55%. the average is 20%. jd.com promised the lowest price, and if you buy more expensive, they will compensate you. haidi: it is not just the likes of jd and rivals, the competition has been difficult for alibaba. how do you assess the broader industry and which plays we should be talking about? >> china's cloud computing industry has been intensifying in the past few years. alibaba has been the market leader but the market share has been shrinking over the past few years. this is mainly do to the aggressive mergers by china's state-owned players. that is also why this is the second time alibaba did a major price cut in a year. alibaba cloud has gone through a
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lot in the past year. the company announced reshuffles on the current group. then later they canceled -- there is really a lot going on with alibaba cloud. annabelle: it is not often you have the opportunity to exponentially grow the pie. could it be the case through ai there is more to go around for everyone? >> yes, almost all cloud computing players want to ride the wave of services. alibaba cloud gets close. half of china's generated ai firms are running on alibaba cloud services but the common challenge is china's economy and
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enterprises are more reluctant to spend on i.t. infrastructure services. that is the basic challenge here. haidi: bloomberg's technology reporter. taking a look at stocks we are watching, we are trading ahead of the china open, we mentioned jd.com cutting prices for cloud services triggering a a price war with state cuts with alibaba. game sales missed estimates, we are watching netease. china pmi data is coming up in the next hour. this is "daybreak: asia." ♪
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