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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  June 18, 2023 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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shery: you are watching at daybreak asia from new york, sydney, and hong kong. haidi: a positive but cautious turn as u.s. secretary of state has talks in beijing. the meeting was described as candid and constructive. hoping for positive sentiments. the yen is losing ground against almost all major currencies. and pete buttigieg calls for the de-risking of global supply chains. shery: u.s. futures are gaining 2/10 of 1% after losses on friday. markets were challenged given
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massive options expiration friday not to mention markets are closed for the u.s. holiday monday and you have to put this into context. five weeks of gains already for the s&p 500. the longest winning streak since 2021. treasury yields climbing across the board in the friday session. hawkish comments from fed officials. this week we will watch the semi annual testimony to congress for hands of where monetary policy could go. pressure on wti prices in the asian session after a week of gains for oil given speculation more stimulus would come from china. annabelle: a lot of investors putting their hopes on it. you mentioned jay powell's testimony this week. the bank standing well apart
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from the fed is the boj and we see reaction coming from the currency space with the yen trading lower against a lot of currencies again the swiss franc sitting at the 40 year low and the kiwi dollar versus the yen also trading at the weakest with the japanese yen against the kiwi dollar and eight years and the weakness is coming through in japanese currency this morning already seeing japanese government officials talking in the last week so we will monitor over the coming days trading closely at 142 the seven months low for the japanese yen against the greenback but let's change up because the expectation from china we could see for the stimulus coming through is something a lot of traders have been buying the rumor on probably not a fact as yet but watching closely and the aussie dollar picking up some what we
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saw u.s. futures headed a little higher and it is more down to what we are getting in terms of regression in the sign of u.s. relationships. haidi: u.s. and china have described antony blinken's meeting with the chinese foreign minister in beijing as candid. for more details, stephen engle joins us in hong kong. 7.5 hours of candid and constructive. we will take it as positive sentiment given how low expectations were going into the meeting. >> i look at it like i look at work. under promise and out deliver. going into the talks with blinken as the state department essentially lowering expectations saying there will be no deliverables, essentially this was designed to get dialogue going. the foreign minister walking
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with antony blinken, essentially said the relationship right now is at its lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic relations in the 1970's so they can only go up. they could go down but at least they will try to put a floor on that and they talked for much longer than scheduled, seven point five hours yesterday in beijing and they were candid and constructive and the readout from the state department was that communication is needed to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation but taiwan is the central issue and the main reason why relationship has gone so sour. china says it is the core issue. the biggest problem on the most prominent risk in relations so i
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will give the benefit of the doubt that they talked constructively yesterday. today the discussions get elevated a little bit where blinken will be meeting with the top diplomat in beijing and there is a glimmer of hope. a glimmer of hope that he could meet with president xi jinping. that is not on the schedule but there is always a possibility. he met with bill gates friday and has met with other people. will he meet with blinken? it's a lot trickier at the time of such impasse. shery: you know signs are positive when you are talking about talking about diplomacy. do we see anything concrete? >> tangible, i guess you could say the most tangible results of the talks would be reestablishing lines of communication and having dialogue.
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xi jinping and joe biden have not met in person or even had a phone call since the november meeting on the sidelines of the g20 in bali which we covered. we thought that would usher in a new age but then the spy balloon happened and there were incidents surrounding taiwan and a lot of built-up rhetoric am i guilty as charged as well on television because that is the only narrative we have been getting so i guess the deliverable is you have the foreign minister of china and the u.s. secretary of state my blinken's first trip to china as secretary of state and the highest level to visit in the biden administration so it is progress. they agreed on some of the low hanging fruit like increasing flights between the countries and other cultural exchanges by getting xi jinping and joe biden to talk again either face-to-face or by video is
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probably a higher framing -- higher hanging fruit but at least there is a possibility. a glimmer of hope. shery: another big week for monetary policy. jay powell will be in the spotlight on capitol hill days after causing the most aggressive -- pausing the most aggressive tightening campaign a decades and awaiting policy decisions from central banks this week. paul dobson joins us. some central banks including swiss and the england's, [indiscernible] having to reposition already, at least in the u.s., and steepening the trade doesn't seem to be paying off anymore. >> central banks have been so aggressive and we have seen a lot of it this month where you have the surprise hikes from the
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boc and rba and some hawkishness in the bed forecast and the ecb sounding hawkish and determined to keep raising interest rates so the bank of england facing probably the toughest inflation challenge of all of them with four or five more hikes priced in by the market. it will be hard for the boe to out hawk of those expectations but we will see determination to get inflation back in check and we will get inflation figures this week in the u.k. that will either push the boe to go harder or maybe allow them to be more comfortable depending on whether we get the expected slow down there. overall for the bonds market it has been at the start of this year it was all about the short-term interest rates would start to come down again and
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long-term interest rates may be would be comfortable but because we have seen the huge raises in the two-year yields in the back of the bank of england and the rest of the central banks more hawkish positioning it has not been trading off for investors so at least push it back for another three months and, again when things have calmed down a little bit. haidi: that is the hope. is there a sense that rethinking is not coming with a lot of consensus when you look at the threat of expectations? is there increasing fear that as we get to the endgame the risk of a market misstep could be more likely? >> the risk of a policy error is certainly prominent. the error for the policymakers would be leaving inflation to get out of hand. get inflation back in the bottle.
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if that causes something of a recession, so be it. the number one objective is to achieve this so they would probably see the greater error as being unable to rein in inflation regardless of what it means for the economy that said the market is worried about if central banks will trigger a big recession. at the moment you could be painting an optimistic picture at least for the u.s. where inflation is slowing in the economy is holding up and withstanding higher interest rate and company earnings are still looking pretty healthy but the window to achieve that reduction in inflation without triggering a recession is closing all the time it would seem based on market observations. haidi: paul dobson. it still ahead we talk with the
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financial landscape in japan with james riney. and wells fargo believing the fed tightening is not over. we get that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> core inflation is not moving and that will require probably some more tightening to try to get that going down. and that is where the risk is going to come in going forward. haidi: that was christopher waller talking about the central banks continue fight against inflation. joining us from singapore is the head of global market strategy at wells fargo.
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you say the fed is not done yet. does it hinge on whether last week was a pause or a skip? is the language significant? >> pause, skip, hop. all interesting terms. it matters how the fred -- the fed frames it. if you think about the path of inflation, it is always hinged on how quickly inflation gets there and they don't know if it is the policymakers of the fed, rba, bank of england, but it very much matters in terms of whether the guidance from governor waller is right or from chair powell, we are probably not done. it matters a bit to financial markets. haidi: does that mean you are playing with identifiable opportunities?
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or are you turning to what the pboc is doing or other compelling stories? >> a bit of both. in developed markets, a couple things stand out. we have been puzzled for a while why the markets are pricing so much more easing by the fed, especially next year, relative to central banks. said versus ecb, the fed, 125 basis points for next year. for the ecb, 55 or 60. that differential does not make a lot of sense to us. bank of england is probably a different story but at least in terms of the fed versus ecb we think the gap narrows, what does it mean, a positive for the u.s. dollar versus the euro we think also when you look at the japanese yen it has been beaten down way too much. we think that probably slows down somewhat soon, maybe a couple months out.
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and in the rate space, you can look at opportunities to buy assets in markets -- we think the market will price less so plenty of opportunity in developed markets. i think there is a lot going on with respect to central bank policy being replaced. shery: i have to ask about one of the toughest monetary policy decisions this week from the bank of england. what were you expecting given the wage growth continues to accelerate? >> boe is in a difficult position. as a firm we are calling for 20 five basis point hike. 50 will not surprise anybody. the future path is unknown so the economic team looking at the run rate of core inflation for the u.k. early next year, we think it is 4%, which is high but it could be 4.5% and the risk is to the upside so really
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difficult challenge for the boe. the inflation problem is not under control. in addition to the other factors, there is brexit. 25 this week but probably more on the way. shery: what does this mean for emerging markets? >> typically negative. you can imagine why. rates going up and people say all right, it probably means the u.s. dollar and g10 currencies are doing well, we will send more capital that way but the interesting thing about this cycle is in terms of hiking policy, not so much last year but the year prior if you go back to 2020 one there was a lot of hiking but not much in developed markets but in the next year develop market central banks caught up so there has been a seesaw battle and it is not a straightforward comparison.
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this one has been so different with timing. shery: will we finally see a much needed hike this week? >> a messy situation in turkey. new leadership with central bank. anything is fair game. does president erdogan want tighter policy? it's been a losing proposition for a while. so i would take a distant view of that and not put a lot of risk on it. haidi: looking at the japanese yen or japanese equities, 8/10 straight week for that of gains. is there for -- for the nikkei 225 of gains.
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>> rate differentials. when you think about the yen versus the u.s. dollar you can compare it with respect to equity prices and rate differentials and you might say it is a risk off current the so in the last 12 months it has been rate differentials telling the story. a strong correlation between the dollar-yen and this dread -- the spread. jgb has been fairly constant. so it is a rate story now and i do not think we will see a huge shift with respect to the yen but we think it will end soon so if you go forward for months the yen does better but until then they will do relatively poorly we think. shery: michael shoemaker, head of global macro strategy out of
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wells fargo. more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: pete buttigieg says he wants to de-risk global supply chains. he spoke with bloomberg on the sidelines of agc -- g7 meeting in japan. he was asked about the challenges posed by china's ownership of international container ports. >> as we seek to diversify our supply chain and economic relationships we want to make sure the capabilities are not concentrated with any one country. certainly with a country that might demonstrate a willingness to use them in ways not connected to what is best going forward commercially or in terms of international order. we want to make sure that at least when we can agree on
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matters that we are operating on a basis that can be understood to be for the benefit of all. >> are there any other sectors that need de-risking? even the drug sector. the world is reliant on basic drugs when it comes to china. >> i do not want to wander far outside my own portfolio. these subjects are active conversations. regarding supply chains i can say we have seen if there is not enough diversification, you see extraordinary levels of geopolitical lists -- risk and logistical risk in the u.s. because of the extreme variation between closures andriy openings in asia and china specifically. there is a great deal of unevenness in terms of the arrival of goods where ports are
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not ready to take it in all at once and one example of the kind of wake-up calls the u.s. and global community in general have been experiencing, especially in the last two or three years. >> semi conductors front and center. u.s., japan, korea, taiwan investing heavily in their own semi conductor sectors. could that lead to overcapacity? >> right now overcapacity seems to be the least of our problems when it comes to the race for semi conductors and we saw how problematic it was when we came up short. this is a process where the very intentional direct and ambitious use of policy has to match the unique ability of markets to allocate resources and help make sure the capacity is tracking the future of demand but what we know is semi conductors are going to be even more important in the future.
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we think about the automotive sector, the fact that a car is increasingly as much a computer as it is a vehicle on the same could be said of so many other sectors. so rather than allow ourselves to be in a situation where we come up short, we are making sure both in terms of relationships with friends and trading partners and domestic capacity, which has also benefited from foreign direct investments helping to create jobs on u.s. soil while strengthening our partnerships and relationships across the pacific that it is something that makes sense for the future and can help us to question some of the geopolitical risk. >> towing looking to resume deliveries of their max jets to china. how are you trying to push this along? >> our focus from the faa standpoint is on the certification and safety. the rest is a market matter, one
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where there is obviously a lot of interest from the trait perspective but we are very cautious in my department to separate trade questions from safety questions and safety is our top focus. >> looking at dvds, gm and ford are saying they are ready to adopt tesla's chargers. how will you look at that? will it make it more difficult for your department to have oversight of teslas over part -- autopilot? >> we view the relationship with chargers as a positive development. our biggest concern is to make sure a good strong charging network is available. we are not picking winners and losers to say this company standard is better than others. we established a baseline in terms of access to certain connectors to make sure everybody knew what to expect but that was designed to be a
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floor, not a ceiling. haidi: that was pete buttigieg speaking exclusively with bloomberg. on the topic of ev's, ford's executive chairman says the u.s. is not ready to compete with china get on tv production. he told cnn china's ev capacity has developed quickly and in large scale and his company is taking an all hands on deck approach to prepare to take on chinese competition. they stirred controversy earlier this year when they installed a ev plant in michigan with technology and support from china. our next guest says prospects for a constructive improvement in u.s.-china ties remain slim. in u.s.-china ties remain slim. how it is p it's an amazing thing
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when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. ♪
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>> intense competition requires sustained diplomacy to ensure competition does not move into conflict. again, that is what the world expects from both the united states and china. haidi: the u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken speaking before his trip to china. of course after his meetings, he talked about having a candid conversation with his chinese counterpart. our next guests as an investor sentiment in china remains strained with a community facing mixed signals. eurasia group's director, anna ashton. great to have you with us. despite the fact that these conversations were called candid, we did not see anything
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tangible between the two countries. how much will the opening up of communications again actually help in improving sentiment, especially about investments into china? anna: it could help a lot. you know, i think that the issue is there really are two things going on. one, mixed signals on the china side for companies in the market come on the one hand hearing repudiate -- beta messages that foreign investment is encouraged. on the other hand, they are seeing crackdowns and raids, some concerning signs about whether the government is all in on boosting the economy. then there is the u.s. side, the politics around china in washington are really fraught. and the relationship is as strained as it has been since
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the 1960's. so, the fact that talks are back on probably will actually be great news to companies, because it begins to create a little more certainty, but do they feel like they can rely on certainty coming out of this? probably not. we have been here before and each time the floor gets lower. haidi: yet we have top business leaders heading to beijing -- shery: bill gates actually speaking to president xi. can we have these two track conversations and relationships where you have geopolitics on one side and business leaders doing their own thing? anna: it is a complicated time for business, not just in china, but globally because geopolitics has become a front and center issue. and for doing business internationally in a way has not been for the last two plus decades.
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i think businesses will continue to try to do that exact thing, because of china market is important for a lot of them. they have 20 or 25 years of investment in china. and they have staked future plans and profits on china. they are reluctant to give that up, understandably, and shareholders are reluctant to see them do that. haidi: the stakes perhaps have never been higher when it comes to doing business in china. how much of it is down to uncertainties over the geopolitical relationship, as you talk about china and australia, china and the u.s.? and what about the domestic agenda? we have seen perplexing policy moves and crackdowns over the past few months, which have had huge implications going forward when it comes to foreign investor sentiment. anna: yes.
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and certainly with u.s. investor sentiment, because the majority of them seem to have been focused on u.s. companies, micron not being able to have its products in chinese infrastructure anymore after a record-breaking investigation and findings that they were not trustworthy. it was clearly retaliation. and i think that we are seeing the chinese government rail lie a little bit more and a little bit more on these retaliatory tools it has been signaling it has for some time now, early in the trump administration. there was restraint about using those tools for several years but restraint is loosening. for u.s. companies in particular, i do think the domestic situation is quite uncertain. but the geopolitical aspect of the situation also cannot be understated.
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and, i think it is the biggest factor overall here. we have a u.s. government that is talking about china in terms of a cold war. that has been moderated in recent weeks as the admission has underscored the need to avoid conflict, but that is the fundamental issue right there -- where this relationship is, the top goal is avoiding conflict. shery: if -- haidi: if that is the one takeaway we can hope for. as a result, are you seeing more evidence of --because you can see what happens when the relationship reaches a top. that relationship is improving now, but after how many years of a great deal of difficulty? do you see evidence of companies moving away from wanting to deal with the uncertainty? anna: companies do not want
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uncertainty in their supply chains and they have a keen awareness now, especially in the wake of the pandemic, that they need to have duplication for their supply chain. they cannot be overly reliant on anyone country for too much of their supply chain. so, there are moves to -- they are looking at more diversification. but the global supply chains are really dispersed right now and it will take time to change those. shery: anna ashton with the latest on the u.s.-china relationship and diversification when it comes to supply chains. intel and micron are planning to spend billions on new plants outside of the u.s. of course, this is an attempt to diversify supplies. we will bring am vonnie quinn. we have been discussing with
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anna all the risks related to supply chains. what are we seeing from these companies? vonnie: it is the theme today. we heard pete buttigieg talking about supply chains. and companies do not want to be in a position at the written during the pandemic. they do not want supply and demand completely mismatched. they are derisking and moving supply chains away. intel, for example, is committing $4.6 billion to a factory in poland. it is also a green to and large -- to a green enlarging plants in israel. it is being expanded to a $25 billion investment there. the project already had 12,000 employees, so this will be adding to intel's presence in israel. it will also expand in ireland, another $13 billion there to double manufacturing. so investments were already in
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these countries, but they are getting expanded. micron, even as beijing is cracking down on their infrastructure, it is committing about $600 billion to china. but also india. at least $1 billion to a packaging plant in india and it could rise. haidi: it is not just diversification away from china because there are some incentives they are considering. vonnie: obviously, china and taiwan is a critical factor, but governments are competing to have these companies come to their countries and offering subsidies. the u.s. alone is offering $52 billion in r&d research subsidies to different projects, but europe is competing as well. we have the prime minister of germany meeting with intel on monday. we have the indian prime minister visiting the u.s.
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and it is all for the same reason, they are willing to spend money to have companies expand in their countries. we have seen for example some countries say they will not try to compete. south korea is one of those saying it is not going to offer incentives or perhaps cheap land leasing or what have you, in order to attract some of these companies away from china. haidi: ok, let's take a look at how we are shaping up with the markets. >> in asia, we are looking at the run up from chip stocks. japan, of course, a benchmark we have been tracking. just on friday, rising for a 10th street week, the longest win streak we have seen in a decade. a few factors, but they are issuing a set of government reforms, or corporate governance
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reforms. and we had heard from the boj because the bank of japan is very much an outlier on the global stage. boj continuing with easing policies until there is more sustained inflation. i mentioned the boj staying with its policies. but there are ramifications across the currency space because the yen is weakening against its peers. this morning, looking at the pound versus the yen, trading past the 180 80 mark. the -- 180 mark. >> given all the optimism over the japanese markets, we will be talking about venture capital and the start up ecosystem, coming up. we have more. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪
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♪ haidi: it is time for japan ahead. leaders from japan, south korea and of the u.s. are planning a summit in washington by the end
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of august. it will mark the first meeting held independently of international conferences. support for the prime minister in japan has dropped to 33% in a recent poll. the disapproval rating also rose to 58%. the nikkei is reporting that huawei is requesting licensing fees from companies for the use of -- technology. we are fixated on two stories, one is the direction of the yen as we look at that area above 142. it's trading up just against -- up against just about every partner. the worst performer for the g10 space, down by 7.5% against the u.s. dollar. so much of it coming down to the policy divergence between the boj, still cautious. the fed with more hikes to go. we are watching where we go when it comes to the broader equity
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rally. last week was the 10th street week of gains for the nikkei 225. shery: the longest streak since february of 2014. this is foreign investors piling into the equity markets. our next guest says we will see more money allocated to venture-capital opportunities. joining us in tokyo right now, the ceo of cortland capital. james, good to have you with us. we have seen some funding challenges last year, so will 2023 be different? james: uh, yeah. 2023, i cannot say whether it will be that different from last year, but i think that what is important to note is when it comes to venture-capital investment in japan in 2022, globally you saw basically a sell off where the market froze over. in japan, what we saw was an
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uptick, so venture capital investment group. it can be introverted to a number of factors, but first and foremost of note is because japan is such a black box for foreign investors, we do not have crossover funds or mega funds bidding out prices. in 2021, we sell relatively higher prices, but not at the levels you saw with the other markets. the hangover afterwards was not as severe. and another thing i will note is that firms that were early in japan built up a reputation, like coral, we have been investing here since 2016 and we have been able to raise much larger funds, we have been able to support startups here, and we are backed by institutional investors. they are thinking on 20 year time horizons, so the short-term fluctuations, it is not exactly top of mind.
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investors have said we will be investing for the long term here. haidi: last year, startups in the later stages actually saw decline in yield values and perhaps foreign investors were not too comfortable with those. are we going to see a rebound in that sector? james: whenever shifts like this happen, basically you have a world of haves and have-nots. capital gets concentrated into the best-performing companies. it is not unique to japan, this is a worldwide phenomenon. relatively speaking, japan has done well when it comes to the startup market. haidi: how lynch has the broader policy environment helped? -- how much has the broader policy environment helped? how much the government wants to spend on innovation -- do you think that is making a meaningful difference? james: it definitely is.
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first of all, prime minister abe basically should be credited with starting this initiative to support startups from the top. when it comes to a culture like japan, a lot of the pressure and engagement really needs to the enforced from the top, where they are making a policy to engage with startups, and that trickles down across japan. so, prime minister -- the prime minister now has taken the baton and has announced a five-year plan to basically invest and support startups. there's a lot of things in there, but it is important to note by 2027 they want to get venture investment up to $100 billion. that's 10 times what it is today. and so, whether that is too ambitious, that is probably up for debate, but it is clear that
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the japanese government has made it a priority to invest in startups and they will do it for the long term. relative to china, one thing i have noticed is that not only is the japanese government pushing startups in japan, but u.s. investors have started to take more interest in the japanese market. it's looked at like a reallocation within the asian portfolio to the japanese market. and, one thing that people tnd to misunderstand about japan is when things happen, things change, and it tends to be gradual. before any big change happens, you have a lot of deliberation, preparation, a a lot of heads up, so things do not happen all of a sudden. but when you think about neighboring china, things happen on a whim. it seems like they were so gung ho about startups, then there was a complete change with a crackdown in the market.
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when it comes to the long-term, investors want predictability. china is not offering that. japan is offering that. that is why the attention has been shifting to japan. shery: policy execution has been fast and furious in china. haidi: i think what you are saying is it is slow and steady in japan. it still kind of confounds me that outside's reaction, talking about the nikkei 225 with 10 straight weeks of gains, and not a lot has changed other than the inflows from the u.s. these expectations of more reforms. you think this time it is for real? what are you hearing from investors about the optimism we are seeing in the nikkei? james: people sometimes get frustrated with japan because they think things happen too slowly here. but these things do not happen
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all of a sudden, where like i mentioned with china the crackdown happens and you cannot prevent those things. that is unlikely to happen in japan. so right now there is more attention on japan and may be a little bit of hype, but directionally it is on the right track. and warren buffett also thinks so. warren buffett is not exactly known for being a start of investor, but because he has put the spotlight on japan what has happened is basically investors are looking at different asset classes in japan and naturally they will get venture capital and private equity. so we think that this interest will benefit japan as well. shery: james riney, great to have your views on the startup environment and ecosystem in japan, as we continue to focus on monetary policy there, especially monetary policy
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divergence between the bank of japan and other central banks. this is really having an impact on currencies. we are talking about the japanese yen against the u.s. dollar, making it the weakest since november of last year. the weakest level against the euro since 2008. the pound, the yen at its weakest level in about 80 years, since 2015 -- eight years, since 2015. you can see the weakness as we continue to price in more hawkishness and rate hikes coming from the federal reserve, ecb and boe this week. watch us live into see past interviews on our interactive tv function tv , you can also dive into the bloomberg functions that we talk about and become part of the conversation by sending incident -- instant messages during our shows. check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research. get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. shery: we are looking at the currencies. downside pressure for bitcoin towards the 26,000 level. a little better of a picture for other tokens. and this of course is after we saw two weeks of losses for the biggest cryptocurrency, despite
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the fact the bitcoin share of the total market has grown to its highest in 20 months. this as we continue to see regulatory pressures in the crypto industry. and -- is agreeing to sell its -- business. there is a management team led by svb. it is also backed by funds managed by the ball post group. the group will have a combination of cash, debt, note repayments and a 5% equity instrument. binance and the fcc have reached an agreement that avoids a total freeze while a law supersedes. binance customer assets will be repatriated and is prohibited from spend -- setting spending corporate assets, other than to fund operations. u.s. customers are permitted to -- from the platform.
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binance says it will defend itself against the sec lawsuit, alleging misuse of customer funds. and these are some of the stocks we will be watching when trade opens in japan and australia. shares of chipmakers could be moving after -- had half of its sales tied to headquarter clients could be affected by a probe. suppliers of aircraft components in focus after the boeing ceo said that will accelerate production of the 737 jets. right. coming up in the next hour, tribeca investments still views the chinese market as an anonymous opportunity. they will let us know why. and, the chinese consumer in focus as we speak with wpic.
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shery: we are counting down to major market open. we are looking for clues on market sentiment from asian trading this week on the u.s. is away on holiday on monday as we set off toward this busy week of global central-bank action. >> were not done after last week. we had the boe and more commentary from fed chair jay powell. all of this looking to potentially create more of a divergence between what we see from global central banks like the fed and the boe and japan. >> japan really the outlier on the global stage and we're seeing that reflecting this morning in how japanese yen trading across oregon's is g10 peers.
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we do have the juneteenth holiday in u.s. and we can expect thinner trading but at the start of the day we have the nikkei coming online. we are coming off of 10 straight weeks of gains for the nikkei in japan. it is -- the weaker yen we are seeing in trading past 140 level. we are run a seven month low for the yen against the green the. the other currency we are watching and the pound, even in focus among others. the boe set to hike again for a 13th straight time. if you change on now, something else we are focusing on in asia and will have global ramifications. other signs of tension starting to ease somewhat between u.s. and china because we had officials holding several talks
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over the weekend but importantly as well agreeing to maintain high-level ties. something that could help boost sentiment throughout the day trading even though we are seeing trading weaker, because deck. -- we know this week we can expect more expansionary policy to come in with banks set to cut loan primaries on tuesday. they can be something that helps benefit the that is under pressure this morning. china's economy in focus. government sites essentially cutting their growth forecast for china to 5.5 percent down 6%. a significant reduction coming through this from goldman sachs who had been bullish on the recovery in china at the beginning of this year. let's change on in australia. we are also watching some more domestic factors. s&p 500 looking fairly flat but
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we are expecting more measures around housing affordability. that's played into inflation. essentially the government announcing plans to spend $1.4 billion to address housing affordability. we're watching brent crude this morning under pressure as we get trading underway. traders focus on the second half outlook. >> our next guest sees inflation softening. she is still bullish. let's bring in jun-bei liu. it is great to have you as always. the difference between last week was a skip or pause. does that make a meaningful difference to you in terms of trying to work out what comes next? jun-bei: absolutely. the fed is problematic. it was to see whether inflation continues to weaken as well as
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the impact of the high rates. that is a very positive sign for where that might be in where the peak rate might be. i know there's a couple rates to be priced into the market but that a sitcom. it will be data-dependent on where inflation will be. shery: even though we see downgrade the consumer, you still like opportunities? jun bei: we still think there is more downgrade to come. next must agree to be tough though sectors. u.s. market we are see downgrade in store the next -- last 12 months and another six months out rate to come. markets like australia we have yet to see the numbers come through. there's further to go. these are your times were you looking at opportunities. cyclical businesses will do better wants the rate peak happens. you can buy some of the real bargains in the space. time is yet to come. next three months is where you
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probably bite those bargains. -- find those bargains. shery: what does that mean for asian markets and where the opportunity are given the trade? jun bei: i do think asian markets look very attractive aside from the valuation differential in the emerging. it is also u.s. dollar is to weekend. it is going to help support the risk appetite into those markets. if you look at the inflation across the asian market, i do think they are going to's often quite quickly -- soft and quickly because if you look at china, service inflation and wages never reach the strength we saw across other markets like u.s.. the good inflation continue -- his started to weaken because of the low commodity prices. we do think asian markets look
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attractive in the next six months. >> we are getting goldman sachs called gdp growth target for china will be cut the analysts to 5.4 percent from 6% and also saying china's ongoing stemless cannot generate strong growth impose. where does that leave some of the trades we were so optimistic about earlier in the year like china reopening stocks? jun bei: i do think goldman sachs is too aggressive. they are saying china's not going to be its growth target and i think it is wrong. the government has picked up its stimulus and intention clear to stimulate the economy back into the growth target. what we have heard is recently from travel to china there is a lot of project just on hold. it is not about starting new projects. all you need is an extensive into local government and to restart those projects and they can switch on quickly.
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we think the rate cuts is going to flow through quickly in the next few months. shery: we sawtek -- saw tech. does that continue? do you go for growth at this point? jun bei: china tech has reached a significant valuation discount. it is consumer oriented and growth oriented. we do think the next 6-12 months they will be the outperformer simply because how differential. if you look at nasdaq, it is reasonable market the last six months. china tech certainly looks good value. haidi: i have to get your views on japan. how much we are seeing broad-based for the yen and how much strength we are seeing in the enthusiasm. are you partaking in the rally? jun bei: it looks interesting. i am probably sitting on the
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fence a bit. corporate reform is incredibly interesting. we have to see more evidence to come. but could shipped investors diversification within the space but my view is asia pac we have to have some china and japan looks interesting but australia sits well in that space. haidi: tell me about the ways you want to play australia because the china australia story has gotten better. jun bei: incredible amount of opportunity. australia -- commodities as the simple way to play it and have been devalued. there is a bottom up stories like the treasury where shareprice was heard by the tariff and now with the trade relationship improving it looks like that company in short-term positive catalysts is meaningful. there are other stories. like a two and education business like idp.
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australia is a good hunting ground for the leverage to the china reopening. haidi: is that your favorite story with australia given the concerns about new zealand obviously and-concerns go a hardest lending is cash value? -- ca hardest landing in australia? jun bei: consumer confidence and corporate confidence falling. it is also the way path to rate expectation is going now. there is a high risk for australia to be over tight end. we have a hard landing. it is seem like the risk and reward is on a downslope with australia domestic focus businesses. haidi: always good to have you with us. this gives you back for a look on the early movers. annabelle: we are focused on
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signals or signs we are seeing in improving tensions between u.s. and china after we had officials holding high-level meetings over the weekend and suggesting we see more talk succumb. this morning we are focusing on chip stocks and supplies micron. micron the biggest u.s. memory chipmaker and the reason we are doing that is because micron put forward a filing on friday saying several of their customers being contacted by officials in china. this is a part of an ongoing investigation by the cybersecurity administration of china announced earlier this year. some of their sales being deemed at risk. analysts a given micron -- saying given micron retains its revenue outside of china, this may not have too much of a bearing on long-term but we are seeing these two things looking weaker as we get trading on the way. another sector we are focusing on this morning, supplies and aviation link stocks and this is after we had boeing saying it is
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preparing to accelerate part -- production of its 737 jess. no exact timeline on that but the company is making progress to addressing a supply defect. has slowed deliveries. some styles looking higher off of this news. shery: we're watching consumer stocks. still ahead festival may reflect stronger consumer sentiment despite other -- undercurrent of the week economy breed more on this later. plus, u.s. secretary of state talks with his chinese counterpart in beijing. we assess the impact of antony blinken visit next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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intense competition requires sustained diplomacy to assure competition does not rear into confrontational conflict. that is what the world expects about the united states and china. >> u.s. secretary of state speaking just before his trip to beijing. after his lengthy meeting with foreign minister both u.s. and china have described this conversations as candid and constructive.
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for more details this break-in -- when i say late think, i mean really mean it. seven hours. what they talk about? >> it was much longer than either side expected which is a positive sign under these conditions. we saw the first row take away from meeting which they announce would come to the u.s. at some point in the near future. there are plans for more talks which given the state of u.s. china ties is progress. what we are looking for today? is a meeting -- there is a meeting and room on the schedule for a meeting with xi jinping. blinken secures that, that would be positive. another take away is to resume military talks which i've been suspended since pelosi's visit
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to taiwan last year -- have been suspended since policies visit to taiwan last year. that might be trickier. overall the vibe seem good so far out of beijing. shery: there is also corporate talks with the ceo bill gates meeting. >> invested a positive tone and unexpected. -- vested a positive tone. he talked about his building the first american he has seen in beijing this year. he talked about possible cooperation in technology. and health issues. for china these are issues where they have been hit hard the past couple of years. export controls denying them and chips from u.s. and with the
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pandemic, it has been a political nightmare for them. in some sense of being accused of spreading the pandemic across the world and the talk about cover-up and every like that. having a meeting with xi jinping kind assess the trajectory there on two key issues china wants to put behind them talking about corporation and trying to get back into the global supply chains with technology and bill gates going there to portray the message china is not the scary into seat needs to be feared but rather they can be trusted with this tech. >> daniel kate there with the latest on antony blinken's visit to beijing. those talks and conversation
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between xi jinping and bill gates. were also watching the backdrop of these conversations have been -- happening at a time when the chinese recovery story has not done in a way aging has wanted to. after the flurry of the year, we have had these expectations of upgrades to economic growth and we are starting to see cuts to economic growth. goldman coming out expecting china to lower their rrr. also about the ongoing stimulus being unable to generate a strong growth inflows. we have talked about this at length, the narrow space policy makers in beijing have in terms of effective and productive stimulus. we know that part the -- productivity has been a downtrend the past few years as well as the buildup of local government debt as a result of paying for covid zero.
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it is a difficult situation being faced by policymakers in beijing you are seeing that reflected in the gdp growth forecasts. >> no wonder we are seeing the chinese policymakers come out and try to boost the economy through monetary policy and fiscal measures. when it comes upon -- monetary policy we see divergence from commercial lenders were expecting. we likely to -- give any cut in the one year rate we saw from the pboc earlier. not surprising, sykes regionally came out and said the chinese yuan will probably continue to decline given week growth, policy support momentum. goldman expecting dollar you want to be around 7.1 and 6.9 over the 3-6, 12 month. . it is a change from previous
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estimates. >> their vision down for second-quarter gdp had -- their vision down for second quarter gdp growth. growth target when it comes to the third quarter. potentially seeing that impact of whatever stimulus package we do get. there were reports state council might looking at discussing the packages of stimulus last week. we continue to watch out for that but we are starting to see that having a risk off for markets price at the moment. will watch best stories. -- we will continue watch best stories. bloomberg described in get that under terminals available on the mobile anywhere. you can customize the settings. get news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> can we avoid a hard landing? yes, with careful calibration of monetary policy. it take the pause and look at the data and then decide what to do next. it is possible but the path is narrower. >> managing director they are on avoiding a look at how futures are opening at the moment in euro. we're watching for another big week when it comes to the ecb continuing trajectory of what we have seen from the fed and ecb already. potentially having to hike higher and for longer. this is what we are watching for
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stocks in europe. we saw the weekly gain potentially coming off positivity. euro stocks down about .5%. dax up just about the same amount. goldman note when it comes to expectations of the impact of china stimulus and calls for further monetary policy easing from the pboc and the extra commentary of just how useful some of these easing assemblies measures are going to be. potentially casting more risk off sentiment. watching yen pairs in europe where we see steepest magnitudes of the weakness in the ian in terms of trading. the low is in 44 years as we see that g10 mental the worst performer taking by the japanese yen at the moment. >> we're watching intel and micron. there planning to spend billions
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of dollars of new plants outside the u.s. highlighting a global rates diversify supplies of critical components. we have been talking about geopolitics getting in the way of business. what are we hearing from these two companies? >> they're getting out in front of any problems that might crop up. where see activity as he to different countries to build plants, to expand their present there. intel most recently has said it is committing 4.6 million dollars to a factory in poland and agreed to build a new manufacturing plant in israel where it already has a presence. that is a massive project $25 billion. $10 billion has already been committed a couple years ago. planning to expand its presence in ireland neco is in germany -- as in germany to talk about
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probably figuring out whether they can do some business. micron is the other one that has been announcing commitments. interesting one is billion-dollar project. india packaging project and that might even be as much as $2 billion according to some sources. micron recommitted $600 million to china in spite of the fact china is cracking down a bit on micron and what companies can use micron chips. we have been hearing the administration talk about this de-risking the supply chain. it is not just coming from corporate america and not just -- and in opposite direction. we saw tsmc commit huge amount of money to the united states. >> is not just about diversification was from china. there are other incentives being
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considered. >> governments are competing and why we do not want to have a massive multinational company in your back garden? germany is offering intel as much as a potentially $11 billion to build that plant it is helping to build. we have israel offering friendly tax rates essentially 7.5% tax rate for that new investment in israel. the supports have a what janet yellen wanted as a global minimum tax almost wonder 40 countries agreed to although it is not actually come out that way. companies not really pay that 15% even if it is the global minimum. u.s. own incentives. the chip packed all about that $52 billion in terms of paying for our indie projects and other projects although that money has not been to specific companies more like local governments and initiatives.
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>> the latest on diversifying supply chains. a look at how markets are trading across asia because we are seeing bit risk off sentiment now take over. we're talking nikkei falling about .5% with declines being led by information take and communication services although energy and utility still. this is after 10 straight weeks of gains for japanese markets. perhaps worth putting this into the context but even the kospi falling .6% reversing the games we saw in friday's session. qe stocks are down. we have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are getting more insight
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into antony blinken schedule while in china. we knew he was meeting with the top foreign affairs official in the communist party. we are hearing this will not happen at 9:30 a.m. local time. this comes after where the u.s. and china have described as candid talks between he and the foreign minister over the last 7.5 hours. we are looking forward to his schedule in china for monday including the conversation with the communist party passed top foreign affairs oficial to start a 9:00 a.m. local times. we are watching t see if we can get a clue or not on his meetings with xi jinping. we are also headed toward the chinese market opens as markets in asia seem to be a little bit
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hit right now. what have you seen? >> i think a lot of trade is going into the open see her today. we have been looking a bit more positive ahead of the sessions given we had seen some sort of a brush between the u.s. and china. holding that multihour 7.5 hour discussion, signaled it would be more to come because you have the latest line that blinken is meeting with wally in about an hour. we are starting to see stocks turn a little bit lower. perhaps own taking place here. japanese stocks for instance. coming off sick street weeks of gains. a eyelid stocks. as well, we are seeing australia and new zealand looking a little bit more muted with these as we get underway. we are certainly seeing a lot of reaction in the currency space. particularly monitoring the
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aussie dollar. they had been will be higher throughout the day's trading with this move with the u.s. china talks. we are seeing that we can against the greenback. possibly something else is playing into it. essentially they have cut their gdp forecast to 5.4% for the year down from 6%. that is something i came out on sunday. maybe that is just feeding and. we are keeping our eye on the japanese yen this morning. the focus on china and what we can expect in terms of relations with washington and any expectations around stimulus trying to generate a little bit more movement in the momentum there. chris especially comes to generating more confidence for the consumer sector. let's look at that. one of the main gauges here. it is a summer online sales event.
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of course, the original one and china led single day. jd has not disclosed the transaction volumes. the company is exceeding expectations. there are 11 plans for the next 20 years. jd says it wants to grow seven listed companies each with a market value of at least $14 billion. submit your applications in hong kong, sherry. >> chinese consumers have been cautious since the pandemic through several other metrics. some encouraging signs. let's bring in the ceo of marketing and technologies. great to have you with us, jacob. what are you expecting from the 618 shopping festival? >> we are not expecting these numbers overall. we are looking at a force plays.
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we are coming of relatively slow consumption growth. certain niche boards have already been doing well. without that stimulus, we are still seeing very slow recovery compared to what happened in the u.s. and canada. >> earlier in the year, we were concerned about discounting by all of these retail tech giants given the competition as well as , is that going to be an issue? >> we have seen bigger discounting than previous years. some of the brands also had a reluctance to use some of those bigger life streamers. they are keeping a lot of that
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margin internally. retailers in general are probably going to have to have a higher margin this year. just a change of tactics in general of how they have been doing things before. >> what you see as that change of tactics in terms of the longer-term trends? close we are seeing a lot more content and social commerce focus. as opposed to using the big celebrities, there has been a real effort to build up those channels. now it was trying to do that as well, it can be the complete circle that everybody is going down that road. that will lead to allow higher margins. things can be pretty expensive even though they do have incredible reach. >> in terms of sectors you see as being more resilient do you
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see a softening of the post-covid early days of the recovery? where do you see the most resilience? because i think that we are seeing in terms of household necessities, those have all been very resilient. we had a couple of data points we see with cosmetics and luxury doing quite well out of the gate. we don't have the final numbers until the sales finish tomorrow. if you look at the presales numbers, a lot of them were record-setting even compared to where they were last year. it is a good sign. both of those sectors were quite disappointing. close when it comes to social content, who is doing it well? >> you see that of course, t-mobile and alibaba are going to focus less on the overall dmv and increasing ddn you use of
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the average user. they were the first company to get there with short form video for shopping. that is the triple digit growth for a long time. i like to focus, i like what they're doing with that. i think that is really going to catch up in terms of replicating that shopping experience. alibaba has always been very good. they have are the replicated that i have gone to the mall to shop and maybe i did not know. i found some good offers an interesting product. alibaba will catch up in that area. what they have announced should be pre-successful. >> what is the earnings recovery looking like to you? >> for the brands, i think it will be pretty good. i think it is a strategy of the brands coming in. to focus less on getting the
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overall market share. that will be different because with this for horserace, it could be tough for them. they are certainly fighting it out. it is going to be tough on the earnings lines. they indicated they will fight for this market share. now there are a lot of horses in that race. the brands will be focused more on profit and less on those big-name influencers. grace great to have you with us. hong kong is betting that a new program allowing investors to trade equities in the u.s. will help provide in the stock market. tell us about this move. what are the market applications? -- implications?
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>> we have a size stocks. we are talking about the hong kong market cap. 1.9 trillion stocks. i think the consensus when we talk to people is that it will boost liquidity. because it will remove the foreign exchange risk, foreign investors will attract a lot of chinese investors through the trade in this at later stage. it is going to boost the usage of the chinese yuan and the actual market in particular. that is in line with beijing's ambition. >> does not mean it was for hong kong stocks as well? we saw the hang seng index rally recently but not nearly enough.
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crossway. people still thinking a lot of investors are still thinking the market sentiment is a different thing. it is still capital a lot of policy in america counselors. in the longer term, when this is expanded to the entire southbound universe which allows investors to buy those hong kong stocks with the chinese directly, it will improve the liquidity and potentially it will narrow the pricing gap. coming up next, the u.s. transportation secretary says washington is seeking to cut into china's advantage -- more from the excuse of interview with people or just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the u.s. transportation secretary says he wants to de-global supply chains. pete buttigieg spoke exclusively to bloomberg's hoss linda. she began by asking him about the challenges posed by china's
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ownership of international container ports. >> as we seek to be risk endeavors by our supply chains and their economic relationships, we want to make sure these capabilities are not concentrated with any one country. the country may demonstrate a willingness to use these in ways that are not connected to the best going forward. we want to make sure at least when we can agree on members from -- matters from climate change to public health, we are operating on a basis that can be understood to be from the bennett debt for the benefit of all. >> you talk about the risking, are there any other sectors that need the risking? maybe for the drug sector in china. the road is reliant on basic
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drugs when it comes to china. >> and make sure not to wander too far outside of my own portfolio. when i can say with regard to supply chains is we have seen how if there is not enough diversification, you see extraordinary levels of geopolitical risk or just logistical risk. because of the extreme variation between the closures and reopens. there is a great deal in terms of the arrival of goods where ports are not ready to taken all at once. i think that is one example of the lack of calls and the global community have been experiencing. especially in the last two to three years. kueng since we are talking about supply chains, we had the u.s., japan, korea, taiwan investing
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heavily in their own respective semiconductor sectors. could that lead to overcapacity? how are you looking at this? >> overcapacity seems to be the least of our problems when it comes to the race for semiconductors. we saw how problematic it was when it came up. this is the process with an ambitious use of public policy has to match the unique ability of markets to allocate resources and to help make sure the capacity is tracking the future of demand. we know semiconductors are going to be even more important in the future. we think of the automotive sector. the fact that the car is increasingly as much a computer as it is a vehicle. in the same could be said of so many other sectors. rather than allow ourselves to be in the situation where we are coming up short, we are making sure both in terms of our relationship and our domestic
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capacity which was from foreign direct investment helping to create jobs on u.s. soil while strengthening her partnerships and relationships across the pacific. it doesn't even make sense for the future and can help us to question some of the geopolitical risk. >> going, looking to resume deliveries to china. is there a sense of when that might be happening? how are you trying to push this along on the chinese government? >> our focus from the faa standpoint, the u.s. department of transportation is simile on the certification and safety. the rest is a market matter. there is a lot of interest from a trade perspective. we are very cautious. certainly in my department to separate trade question from safety questions. quick you talked about ev's, the big boys, they have come forward to say the ready -- they are ready to a topped tesla
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surcharges. will that make it even more difficult to have oversight of tesla's autopilot? chris we view that as a positive development. our biggest concern is input to make sure that a good and strong charging network is available. as a u.s. government, we are not out to pick winners and losers. we did establish a baseline in terms of access. >> u.s. transportation secretary pete buttigieg says speaking is cozily to bloomberg's hoss linda almond china's plan to expand its ev market is facing challenges. it has to do with the lack of charging infrastructure.
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we have seen the chinese government pushing ev's into rural areas. what is behind this? >> in china, we are seeing the artist market growth slowing and the ev sector has been doing really well. coming into 2023, growth is also slowing. the chinese government is trying to find the next driver for the sector and also to get more of these people living in china to get into these clean cars. because i thought china had the world's largest clean car market. i guess that does not necessarily apply to small towns being able to adopt ev's as fast as a government would like. >> china has been doing really well. in small towns, the adoption rate is still relatively high.
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it is about 20%. compared to the big cities, it is still there. there is about 40% of new car sales. small towns in china are facing a lot of the same challenges around the rest of the world. dressing up some of these models is still quite high. there is also the lack of charging infrastructure and dealerships for selling ev's not just there to help customers but the models that serve them. lastly, a lot of the models that we find in urban areas like slick sedans with a lot of tech features, they are not the models that suit will customers rather well. they need more rugged, bigger models to help them transport goods or work tools. i think the chinese government is pushing to get more models to
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these customers. >> what did they want when they are looking for an ev? >> as i said before, they really need bigger models than what we have seen, telling really well in the big cities. there is a ridesharing driver that transports customers to a neighboring manufacturing hub. he really needs a big fan that seats at least seven people. for a price of about 200,000 yuan. for what he needs right now, the price is still too high. they can go at least 300,000. as more models come down, as
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well as some more light truck and band models come online, i think ev's will take off in rural areas. request that is bloomberg's asia transport reporter with the latest on the ev penetration across china. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the days's big newsmakers. get in-depth analysis from the debris team. listen through the app, radio plus, bloomberg radio.com, stay with us. ♪
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>> if you are watching the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken schedule in beijing, he has a full plate to continue his visit to china. 9:30 a.m. local time. he is meeting with the communist party's top foreign affairs official. we are also watching his meeting in a roundtable with u.s. business leaders. this comes after the u.s. and china both said lincoln had candidate -- candid talks with his chinese counterpart. that was with the foreign minister. those conversations lasted 7.5 hours. he has a full day today which includes a meeting with the communist party passed top foreign affairs official.
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we will be watching heidi if he does in fact get to meet with president xi jinping himself. that could happen. that might happen at the last minute. >> very interesting. especially after a 7.5 hour meeting with the foreign minister, for dinner today. some of the stocks we are watching ahead of the market opening in china, the story is top-tier. shares of asian chipmakers here. they may be affected by the cybersecurity pro. the consumer story as well. they drew a record number of vendors to the online shopping festival. supplies of airplane components and tech stocks men moves as well. the plane maker prepared to
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accelerate production of its cash cow 737 jet soon. on the commodities front, they are receiving approval from that listing committee. to spin off his copper foil technology sherry. next we could see some pressure in chinese stocks. given the center, today seems to be priebus gauff. the nikkei is down 10%. also giving up those gains we saw last year -- last week. look at how u.s. futures are trading. we are now in negative territory with s&p futures down after five weeks of gains. that is it from daybreak asia. our market coverage continues. this is bloomberg. ♪
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