guy: thursday june the eighth. we talked about football yesterday. the weather is dominating the headlines in new york. equity markets are going sideways, we are waiting for things to happen. take a look at what is happening in the currency and bond markets. single stocks are interesting. there is lots to talk about despite at the index level, there isn't. the countdown to the close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson

and alex steele. ♪ guy: that is the right graphic. excellent. stock 600 is doing nothing. single stocks a little more interesting. i read the numbers the first thing this morning and they fitted with the narrative i have been hearing over the last few days. demand is pretty good, the story looks pretty good. the issue is when it comes to the cost story that a lot of airlines -- it's going to be tricky. the top line is roaring but the cost. wizz air holdings down for .28%. railways and buses, first group

is up 14 point 41%. the bus business is doing relatively well. the coach business. that tells you an interesting narrative. there is a strike story we need to worry about and people are trading down and using transportation differently. transport cost have arisen significantly. wizz air down with first group up. alix: what we see tech into cyclicals. the nasdaq up one percentage point. the russell down .88%. as we seen valuation mean

reversion you could see money and cyclicals and high beta names. will it be sustained? the fix out of 13 handle once again. and the two year yield is down by five basis points. you are seeing a people steep in her more buying coming in to the renin. that is set up after those initial jobless claims. guy: makes wonder what's on those notes. it's all appear. alix: there we go, alex takes this very seriously. guy: you're going to drop it and then the show was over because we don't know what's going on. let's move on. talk about what is happening with the eurozone economy. data out confirming what many people log suspected, we are

going sideways. the data don't really mean anything because the latest iteration of the gdp data points that we did have a recession over the winter. we have moved a really small amount but it's embarrassing that suggested we wouldn't have a recession this . a whole bunch of politicians dumped a whole lot of money into the economy to prevent this from happening. does it matter? no, what is important here is what is it mean for the ecb and what is it tell us about inflation? this was a period that we had a recession but sticky inflation. is this the recession the ecb needs or do we get a bigger one? to try and answer this question,

, i'm going to start with you. why should we care that we've moved out of a recession. >> for ecb policymakers this might be worrying because if you think about it, the first quarter we thought it was 0.1 growth but it's just 0.1. headline inflation was already slowing, core inflation was accelerating. if a recession is not enough to bring it down. guy: it was a little recession to be clear. zoe: the ecb don't want to bring down the economy. alix: they are clearly trying to

thread that needle. what kind of recession does the ecb need to see. oliver: it's not the recession they need but the one that they want. when you dig into the numbers and look at what drove the recession is down to final consumption by the consumer but that is higher than it was in the fourth quarter. consumption is going up higher which is an inflationary pressure. you also have the release of the sideline, gdp down to 0.1% employment is up 5.6%. this is another thing that will be supportive as you seek growth slowing but not at the rate you need. guy: part of the stock today was inventories and part was government spending backing off a little bit.

maybe the ecb needs a recession but how that recession is driven as an interesting conundrum. his raising rates helping going further urges the government need to spend less which slows down consumption. oliver: will they be able to do this if you have exogenous shocks from the outside. we had a 30% on dutch futures. we have a dam that has busted that flooded 500 hectares of land. this is a major concern, wheat prices. food is still the biggest contributor in terms of the percentage move. can the son of a effect? plus opec is not happy where oil is right now. alix: you can look at ed is

transitory do those become embedded in the psychology of people? the ecb can't do anything about those things. guy: it can hit the economy very hard. alix: you still have to eat, he stopped to pay for your house. guy: that is where the challenge really lies. the ecb has hit the economy really hard. the fed has had the economy very hard. the consumer is holding up. maybe this is becoming embedded into the economy. are we trying to fight this inflation with one hand tied behind her back? we have the ecb trying to do things on the other hand you have government spending significant amounts of money and that ultimately may perpetuate the challenge that we are dealing with right now. zoe: christine the guard has said repeatedly, what they want in these government measures is that they are temporary, timely

and temporary. that has not been the case. just yesterday, when it produced its economic forecast they had this charter showing the proportion of measures in energy that were targeted and half of these measures were untargeted and that is the kind of thing that will drive inflation and yet it is upsetting for the ecb. the next rate decision is just a week away. then another 25 in july. what they do in september, who knows? we have had inflation slowed down but that's only because of the base effect of energy. alix: i hear you. the target of fiscal stimulus is important. oliver, you left your own going away party to become a

correspondent. so thank you. do we get the impression on the physical front, more targets stimulus could be in the cards? oliver: there are discussions of germany on what to do about energy costs long-term and businesses need subsidies. let's not forget the structural inflation pressures in germany. we want to reassure things and bring manufacturing. we have all these policy levers pulling in different directions. we spoke with volkswagen and this will all cost more money in the short and medium-term. you have the structural side as well as potential shocks. guy: we don't want to recession but spent a lot of money to avoid a recession. jeremy hunt said he would take recession and he would back the bank of england raising rates in

order to get inflation out of the system. is that true in germany? would they rather have a recession in this point, a deepening recession or whatever other continue with what is happening on the inflationary front? oliver: that's a challenging question to answer. what you see in germany now, the political polling, not all of the parties are doing great with pulling. when you look at the far right, that afd is polling higher than each constituent parts of the coalition. this is all stuff the government needs to be conscious of. you can't say hey we need a recession because we needed. it has consequences politically. are we bunching up all of these risks? we have these pent up rate hikes, tighter credit conditions. are they willing to spend through the summer and then what happens when the winter comes? there are lots of concerns that

we don't have equations for. alix: we were saying that a year ago which brings us back to the weather. 25 seems like a done deal for next week. what, turner will we be looking out to see when there will be a whole? zoe: we will be getting a new forecast from christine the guard and we will be looking for christine the guard though they always say they deliver things meeting by meeting in the past. she has been away what the next steps are. they always say no forward guidance but they sneaks the men. the press conference next week will be more exciting. guy: surprises have a big effect in terms of the market impact. think you very much indeed. oliver it's sunny outside, go and enjoy yourself.

alix, we have lots coming up. we will go back to the bloomberg invest conference happening currently in new york. stay tuned for that next, this is bloomberg. ♪ mmmm, your morning coffee hot delicious comforting. but by the third or fourth cup, your stomach might not feel so good.

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alix: you are looking at a live shot of the white house. we have prime minister rishi sunak scheduled to come any moment and meet with president biden within the next 45 minutes. it is going to be a lot of stuff on the table.

check, ai, ukraine, trade, a lot on the agenda to sift through. guy: that is the eisenhower building with the oval office on the left side of the screen. the conversation has moved on from a trade deal and we are moving in the direction of the u.k. trying to find a role for itself particularly in the ai story. that will be fascinating to see what comes out of those. the u.k. has a pretty good footprint with ai. a huge amount of technology resident and the u.k.. what kind of role could play in setting the ground rules going forward. rishi sunak trying to solidify a alix: this situation will be so volatile over the next 1.5 years you have to think european

leaders will be nervous about any consistency of relationships involving. guy: we don't know what is going to happen. we had a difficult relationship with the united states during the trump era. it does not continue? i don't know. i think it will be an interesting question going forward. they will be watching carefully to see what happens. in the here and now the challenge for the u.k. is to stabilize relationships with europe. we seem to be doing that and there's some evidence of that. and maybe stabilize the relationship with the united states. i think at this point in time we don't really know what is going to happen next. i think we exist in the here and now. alix: i feel like the problem

will come creeping high fast. anything that comes across from that meeting we want to update you on first word news. yahaira: giving out today with news from around the world. the sec started to change its tone and it's questioning last year before filing this lawsuit against the crypto exchange. the firm had been forthcoming but was unfortunately met with silence. >> this was not unexpected. we have been a discussion with the sec for a long time going back to before we were a public company we started sharing how we operated our business how we listed assets, and through a large number of dialogs they allowed us to become a public company. we had many discussions in the past year and their tone started

to change. yahaira: the sec widen its crackdown on crypto accusing coin base for running an illegal exchange. i do pride event at the white house he will announce federal efforts to counter book bands and state and local laws targeting the lgbtq community. the department of homeland security will undertake a program that offers safety training to lgbtq centers that have come under increasing threat. a blanket of heavily polluted air covering the eastern u.s. is likely to linger until tuesday as the impact of canadian wire buyers -- wild fires stress out. flights at laguardia were grounded today due to low visibility. philadelphia and baltimore are facing the worst quality in the country. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am yahaira

jacquez and this is bloomberg. alix: we are improving air quality but yesterday was unbelievable. i was walking by people walking outside without a mass, smoking and eating outside. i wonder what the longer-term effects because it could take until tuesday to sort this out. guy: the one positive we could take away from this is people probably do have some masks that are holdovers from the pandemic. at least they are relatively well distributed and have the option analogy to protect themselves. as you say, a shock to people is how bad it is. alix: we are not set up for it. just like california got snow,

talking about money we want to go back to bloomberg invest. >> there is a hundred percent certainty we will have a recession. it is just the timing, thus a harder thing to call. a tcw our view is we will have a medium to hard landing and i'll impact that as to why we think that is the case. we have had 15 years of uninterrupted expansion and the longer the recovery the more access we have to work out of the system. something we look at on our team is m2. it went all the way up during covid and we told ourselves the story that would be transitory, transitory inflation and that turned out not to be the case.

it has come down dramatically to the bottom of the chart. a nice story to tell ourselves is we will get a nice landing. we think it will be tougher than that because of the excess to work out. the second thing i would say is we do have a global call on the quiddity. we think rates will go up but in addition to that, if you look at regional banks which are an important source of financing. they are much more constrained for the issues we know with deposit flight. when we look at our portfolio companies they are struggling to renew loans and that will have an economic impact. we are already hearing that. dave held back in areas of lending. you expect that to increase? we need a recession to show up in the job market.

we need that to get worse. the way that this works is that rates go up, financial conditions tighten and consumption drops, investment drops and then we get job destruction. that's the general ark of the recession. are we following that cycle now? is going to be challenging and it will lead to a hard landing. what are rates doing. will this call on liquidity's be quite as severe in the final comment i would make is when capital re-prices this aggressively, things to break and we have seen some signs of that and there are more things to dislocate ahead. i tcw we are value oriented investors. this can create tremendous opportunity to identify those dislocations and lean in on behalf of our clients. >> in this environment that

comes with a certain amount of risk. katie: from an asset class perspective, i want to talk about private credit. it gives me a chance to make a new headline. when they interviewed me about private credit and the headline they picked up his big accidents ahead. it was amusing because my head of distribution was there and we had just done 40 lp meetings and you said you know we are trying to raise capital? this is my second chance for my bloomberg headline. romaine: i hope everyone is ready. katie: private credit, enormous opportunity. i eventually did get that

message out. it will be an opportunity because whenever capital withdraws there is an opportunity for outside returns and we think that is the next decade. manager selection matters is two quick things to say. 96% of private credit at borders started post global crisis at a low 20 rate environment and we all get to be geniuses when capital is free. when you look at the loans that exist now, they are at three times as high a volume and we are starting to see cracks in the private credit market. we have a second quarter where defaults have ghana. that is where private credit matters. it helps give you a sense of what to ask your managers. our primary credit team is led by rick miller he is an

incredible investor and one of the few people that has been doing this for 20 years. we have invested through three recessions and made 300 investments and only lost a handful of money. there's a lot of wisdom from that team and they would say covenants matters, diligence matters, origination matters in this asset class and the ability to have restructuring experience. i would spend a lot of time, if people are looking to make capital work and private credit. what are the covenants you put in place when things go sideways covenants give you a seat at the table. have you due diligence this asset correctly. origination, if you're reliant on big equity that will be much harder deal flow because fundraising is down and origination. restructuring, have you been out a credit meeting at 2:00 a.m.

and fighting over an asset. have you gotten it back? romaine: unsure of what a restructuring cycle looks like. you mention more than a decade of uninterrupted growth. that means coming out of that, whatever this new normal will be. can you bank on that restructuring cycle to look similar to what we saw prior? katie: i think these things work the same way. we talked about the opportunity and private credit. the real estate market could mean opportunities as well. working the excess out of the system and perform when the economy recovers. one thing i certainly learned in investing is that the best opportunities are coming on the others of them. that is a great opportunity for asset owners of their position

correctly. romaine: you mentioned real estate, there are mixed reviews on whether there is opportunity in the space. people think there are structural changes coming in the commercial space. a lot different than what we've seen in our lifetime. katie: to state the obvious, it's a good place to start. there are always opportunities in real estate, is the world's largest asset class. sector selection matters and continues to matter and enormous amount. i will start with securitized part of it at tcw, we run 95 billion on behalf of securitized assets and clients. i have this conversation with eliza cohen, the way that we are positioned for clients is that we are positive on residential for obvious reasons. it continues to be an undersupplied market and for those of you who are fortunate

enough to be homeowners with a 30 year fixed mortgage are probably not thinking about moving because you're in a good position where rates are. we expect people to stay in their homes. on the commercial side, there are real challenges ahead. if you look at the market, it's up to be extended for points higher. that will cause some real issues. just to dig into that for a second. the area we are most concerned about is office. it's important to think about these things in historical parallels. what happened with retail provides an interesting lens for thinking about what is happening in office and across the cap structure. in retail, we had the internet, amazon disrupted the market. brick-and-mortar strong dramatically in terms of

square footage but there were still some winners. through selection, you can find good assets. on the others of the spectrum we have done malls.com. they are now trampoline parks or data centers. romaine: i wake up every morning with the website. you mentioned brookfield, we also talked about the support from the mall comes from the offices on top. what gets back? there is this broad discussion about hybrid work from home. we talked backstage, martha stewart was railing against people working from home. which i thought was rich considering she shoots from home. but we still haven't sorted this out. katie: to extend that to the office, square footage will get taken out because we have

collectively move towards a more hybrid working model. it will not go to zero but it will have to adjust. there will be some great opportunities because in the offices, the equivalent to the best malls and offices. we need to give people a reason to come in to work. you guys have the sixth floor. that's why i come early to get that free coffee. romaine: i saw you scrounging around. katie: don't look in my purse. you have a reason for people to come in here. the free food, the activity and we need to provide those amenities and offices. there will be opportunities for great properties and a lot of square footage that goes away and that can be converted in some circumstances. in some instances and in some markets it can be converted to multifamily. if it's a cheap source of energy it can be converted into data.

romaine: you are smart enough to understand those potential opportunities. for investors approaching you, are they looking into that space? do they have that same sense of understanding? katie: in real estate there's going to be an incredible opportunity. selectivity matters in the public equity and private equity markets. in the same thing on the credit side. we are trying to attack up thoughtfully for our clients. romaine: there are issues about when we reach the end of the rate hiking cycle was the on the other end of that recession? will it be growth at a level we were used to prior? there has been talk about stagflation. i'm not quite sure of the context but we have heard this from a lot of folks before. katie: i'm a believer that growth will recover. i believe we will continue to innovate and find new paths for

growth. that is been the long arc of history. we will get a recession and then recover to growth levels. we don't have to talk about ai because everyone's part of that. generative ai is another example of how we continue to innovate and push forward. in greater opportunity for expansion. i'm optimistic we will recover to new levels. romaine: you have seen a lot of investors. guy: romantic conversation with katie koch. you continue to watch that on life go on your terminal. what i want to do now in terms of the market is. we are winding down this thursday and we are basically going sideways. there is not a lot really happening at a headline level. take a look at the volatility indexes. taxes up by .2%, italy a little

better today up 5.9%. in aggregate, nothing to see here. on the stock 600, we are perfectly at unch. we climbed back to unchanged on the day. index level, nothing to see here. i keep reiterating this, this turn. the car market is up strongly today, the mining sector doing well, energy having a good day. bottom end of the market, telecoms down by .9%. the grocery sector a little weakness in there. is not doing anything at a headline level. single stocks are getting some volatility their.

orstead and the energy space, a company that looks like it doesn't have to raise additional capital. this is a moment worth noting. first company to issue a blue bond. they are designed to protect the marine environment. thus their focus. that stock up 5.14%. lottomatica group is up today. there were six restarts of ratings. they were all basically buys. the company did relatively well. for the rest of the day, it's reasonably quiet. we are going into a relatively quiet friday. we just saw the british prime minister arrived at the white house. alix: rishi sunak just arrived at the white house. they will be holding a press conference.

josh, what we expect from this visit? josh: it will be a show of strength for two countries that have had a long history of the special relationship but biden has been pretty cool to prime minister sunak he doesn't like the thatcherite school and it is kept them cheap to joel over the time of his presidency. big focus expected on the next steps with respect to ukraine and how they continue to support their. a lot of questions with the incident over the dam. they will try to put on a good show. biden's democrats are not in step with reduced conservatives and that will be left behind closed doors.

we will have to turn in tomorrow for reporting on what went down. guy: the british will be attending an fa sports game. i don't know when he will be seeing this game. it will not be happening in the new york area. major league baseball suspending the game. he looks great in that jacket. what is the president saying about the issue of the smoke coming down from canada, it's drifting down the east coast. new york is heavily affected by this. major league baseball had to postpone games. other things are being canceled as well, what is the president have to say? josh: i am being canceled, i am a token canadian and people are canceling me. president biden spoke to trudeau

last night promising unspecified resources. we have to send whatever we can to help canada get these fires under control. as a brutal fire season. the smoke is still over canada, cities like ontario and the same in new york and washington for a few days. new york air quality has improved to unhealthy. i suppose that's a mark of progress in one way. right now they are saying but search the covers for whatever we can. we have not seen a lot of detail on if that means they will send anything more. u.s. firefighters have already been in canada. that's comment that country share firefighters when it gets this bad. what we are seeing now is this fight in washington over the rhetoric pivoting what is driving these extreme fires and democrats using the republicans

who say this is not due to climate change. guy: i am being told the yankees are at home versus the white sox. i will not blame you despite the fact that you are canadian. thank you very much indeed. it takes us back to our question of the day. what needs to chains as new york chokes? monica defend from amundi sgr spa , we have seen these pictures all down the east coast. talk to me about how investors should be viewing what is happening here. we are looking at a moment where seismic change will be necessary due to what is going on. how should investor look at these pictures and thinking about long-term and may affect

their portfolios? monica: today, we are focusing on what is happening in new york but this is just one of another example of disruptive weather events that are happening. a few weeks ago, we had floods with the disruption of people losing their houses, people dying. it is a global issue of global warming that we have. it is not just about to get to net zero. we are not just talking about climate change in temperature is rising. there is the need for policymakers to run really fast and trying to target whatever is happening on the climate front. for an investor, whatever is related to infrastructure,

health care might be the sectors that can be profitable in the circumstances. alix: you bring up a couple of points, a lot of money globl bey transition in the next 10 years. hundreds of billions of dollars, are we spending it on the right things? investors are taking sides on where to put the money, what do you do? monica: there is no clean convergence, it's more entry genius. -- heterogeneous. eventually, the benefit will be global. as an investor, we will need to focus on the countries and regions that might be ahead in the process in all the sectors

that i was mentioning that are related to create this transition. guy: in terms of what that is going to mean for inflation, and terms of what that will mean about the way we think about how we will see inflation coming down, what is the story here? monica: it really depends on the willingness of the countries to be serious in the transition. let's suppose that this is going to be the case. this will create demand for some commodities and the idea that we have inflation that we stay above target for these reasons. one of the issues that i see is not inflation but how to finance these transitions. alix: at the same time, some central bankers in the ecb we need your help to tame inflation. then you have all the spending

that will come into the market that could be inflationary and you have the u.s. with the ira. how do we wrap this into a central bank and inflation outlook? monica: inflation, you need to disentangle. the central banks are focusing on inflation but they are working on the interest rate side. on the balance sheet, they might use this layer in order to help and work together with the fiscal policy in order to engineer something to trigger the energy transition. this is not just the public sector but the private sector that needs to be engaged here. guy: thank you very much indeed. it is great to have your insight. head of the amundi institute.

not much to write about. ftse 100 unchanged. jack's up but not by much. alix: coming up, it's a sequel no one wanted to see, the return of the basque. you have canadian wildfire smoke billowing on the eastern seaboard. we want to get to the application for some companies like companies that make air purifiers and masks. this is bloomberg. ♪

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yahaira: this is bloomberg markets, coming up elsa lignos joins us tomorrow. this is bloomberg. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word time yahaira jacquez.

overreach is getting greener. 100% of food delivery trips will be emission free by 2040 with an earlier target of 2030 in european cities. it also pledged to scrap all unnecessary plastic from deliveries worldwide by 2030 and eliminate 80% by 2025 in europe and asia pacific. a blanket of heavily polluted air covering much of the eastern u.s. is likely to last until tuesday is the impact of canadian wildfires ripples out. illinois democratic senator dick durbin responded to those who said climate change is a hoax and spreading conspiracy theories about the wildfires. >> is very serious, we don't want to overstate it and say that those who say it has nothing to do with climate change is naive. we live in a dangerous world

with the environment. we have a dangerous situation with these wildfires in canada which is endangering public health across united states. let's take it seriously. yahaira: there are almost 450 active fires with 100 still burning out of control and canadian officials say a new risk of fires could break out in quebec and ontario. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am yahaira jacquez this is bloomberg. alix: let's stick with the wildfires that have affected people on the east coast. this is a live shot of d.c.. joining us now on-site, we were taking this around earlier. we have a lot of money in the ira spent on things on carbon capture and hydrogen. are we spending money on the right things for companies to have the right incentives to do the things we actually needs?

>> i think you need to do both. he played the clip of dig turban and that's an important part of the conversation, you have to acknowledge climate change is causing these events. you need to ice and advise companies to invest in this but the business opportunities are incentive enough. we see higher demand for indoor air quality. once you start paying attention to this you don't forget it. once you start realizing what is in the air you breathe whether that's in your home or out on the street you are much more cognizant of it and don't just move on from it. it is like learning about germs as a child. what we're experiencing here on the east coast reinforces that business case. the carrier's ceo this a 10

billion dollar opportunity. they're investing in opportunities to make the air inside your home better. guy: we learned that many of the systems were up to the job. are they up to the job we see with the wildfire smoke today? brooke: there is a range of technology, sophisticated hvac systems that are skilled at purifying the air and getting those ratios perfect in terms of how much outdoor air they allow when in their ability to screen out viruses and pathogens. those are expensive and tend to be used in commercial industries by large buildings. there are things consumers can do to upgrade their filters or you can buy air purifier which can help in terms of improving the quality of the air in your residence. alix: a lot of industrial make things for electrolyzers and

that is where a lot of the spend and r&d will be. our companies doing equally enough r&d to do the stuff we need today to manage floods and manage wildfires, etc.? can they walk and chew gum at the same time? brooke: they are incentivized to do so in trying to do so because there is a business opportunity. if you're an hvac company, as a consumer is worried about the air quality in my home i will be motivated to find a better hvac system then keep using my old one for another decade. i will be more motivated to update my filters where i'm replacing them every month inside of every six months. there is a natural incentive for some of these companies and they would argue that this technology is sustainable.

i can do both at the same time when you tack on digital technology. it can tell you your air quality needs improvement but if you adjust your energy usage you can save money and be more efficient. you can really do both with some of these latest technologies. guy: i saw dyson and other options, i think they call it the visor or the zone you have to get from aid to be. would you invest in a sophisticated mask at this point? alix: i don't know. i don't want to ever wear that but i have to say yesterday i wish i was wearing that. after coming out, anyone who is outside at 2:00 probably can empathize with that. guy: it feels slightly apocalyptic. you watch movies about this but it does suddenly feel remarkably real that we could be walking around with personal hvac

systems that will manage our airflow and what we breathe and what we don't. thank you brooke sutherland the bloomberg opinion. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> likewise, the fact that there's all this across current this is the best predicted recession that has not happened yet and may not happen. we are dealing with a lot of crosscurrents. guy: that is the president of coo of goldman sachs speaking at the bloomberg invest conference. you can follow this all day on your bloomberg terminals. this is what we will be watching the rest of the day. president biden and prime minister sunak will be holding a meeting right now.

janet yellen is meeting with the u.s. china business council. alix: that wraps it up from me and guy. coming up, bloomberg technology with ed ludlow. this is bloomberg. ♪ ahhh conventional thinking delivers conventional results. at allspring, we break away with purpose. harnessing data-driven insights and boundless curiosity. we dissect the market from every angle. helping to build portfolios that redefine what's possible. ♪ because investing isn't one size fits all. ♪ allspring. purposefully divergent.

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announcer: from the heart of renovation, money, and power telekom valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology" with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. ♪ caroline: i am caroline hyde at near headquarters in new york. ed: and i am ed ludlow in san francisco. caroline: we talk all things crypto. a letter of lawmakers