jonathan: friday, the second of tuned, much to talk about in europe. yes we are watching the payroll story, we are watching what happening with the dt story but the big story in many ways today for europe is what is happening with the china stimulus story. guy: we need to discuss that. europe is having a good day on the back of it. the count onto the close stars now. announcer: the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets," european close with guy johnson and alix steel.

guy: stock 600 a, a five 1.44%. by the end of the market, you have the deutsche telekom sector because of the amazon story. there is also a property story in here as well, much to talk about. we need to talk about china and the effect it is having. it is having a big effect on names like the copper sector, it has had a good day, which is interesting considering iron ore is a but copper has rolled over a little bit. do we believe the stimulus story out of china? is it going to have a market effect or will it fizzle like the previous ones have recently? svb is another -- sp bbb is another one i want to talk about, rising rates. we now know the seo will be stepping down, i think on the

fifth. we also had a story or -- story earlier of early stays talks about a company portfolio. look at the reaction. obviously a lot of shorts in the mix so a bit of a squeeze going on but the stock is up by 53%. alix: let's track that over here. the s&p is up by 1.2% so dish outperforming and that goes to the headline amazon is thinking about offering a phone service with prime membership, t-mobile and verizon and potentially good for dish. the other part, look at the vix, under 15. you have to wonder if we see short covering, if there is promo after the jobs number, if it is a goldilocks scenario selling bonds and buying the dollar and buying stocks. is that what we see continue to play out? we see a big jump in the front end of the bond market, lots of selling up by 12 basis points and that is not hurting tachy, that is not hurting the interest-rate sensitive sectors. speaking of copper, guy was mentioning this is where we are,

8200, off the highs, you mentioned the china trade and we have to wonder how much is the dollar. the dollar index hitting its high in the last hour on the jobs number but nonetheless, do we see stabilization? some of these commodities. guy: crude is up strongly today. we are going into opec and talk about that later. let's talk more about what is happening here in china. it is having an effect in europe. it's having a big effect in europe. as alex was shane, copper was up earlier and that has had an effect in the sector. some copper names are up eerie luxury names have had a good day today. is the market getting ahead of itself? this is the china property investment story. china's property investment started to pick up over the last few months but is fading. they are throwing sort of some stimulus at the sector right now . the question is if they keep doing what they are doing, will it have an effect or is this

rally we see at the moment going to fizzle out, is the impact of the stimulus ultimately going to fizzle out? we have all been anticipating the big china recovery story and honestly we keep being disappointed by it in some anyways. i wonder whether the stimulus story is a trap in the same way the market is selling for itself -- setting for itself. alix: which is the question of the day, how do you play it and do you play the china stimulus? joining us is eddie vanderbilt of markets live in michael mckee joining us to do double duty. and jobs on china growth. eddie, i want to start with you because the rally in commodities. do you play the china rally and should you be playing it through that? eddie: this is an interesting reaction. i think if they stimulate the property sector, that means more building and copper wire and that is good for commodities. the china story lately has not been one of stimulating that kind of growth. china i think will be a lot more

suspect about the way they stimulate unless the consumer [indiscernible] at the moment, bad pmi's are all in the manufacturing sector. the nonmanufacturing pmi's are above 50, even though they are creeping lower and lower. we actually had the big split between manufacturing and nonmanufacturing pmi's, negative split, since the global financial crisis. that has narrowed a little bit that i think that is because we see the consumer come back a little bit too. i think that is with the hope is, people are saying if we see china really coming up and really stimulating a broad-based economy, that is going to be great for the consumer, for the bond overall, and they would perhaps also have commodities. european luxury is much more of a beneficiary year -- beneficiary here that is copper and other commodities. guy: the copper stocks are up a

strongly as there are. that is the point, they are being cautious, they are inching towards stimulus, they are doing it wholesale because maybe they learned the lessons of the past but nevertheless maybe that is what is required and we are very excited about this idea we were going to see stimulus but i wonder if it is not big, does it fizzle? is it a trap for investors? what is your assessment of the substance and size of this at the chinese are potentially talking about? michael: it doesn't look bad in comparison with the things they've done before in the property sector. remember, china has billions of unoccupied and unfinished apartments in many cities around the country. so it is not clear that boosting more real estate building will do a lot for the chinese economy which may be why they are keeping the stimulus sort of small. the real issue with the chinese economy is people are not spending money in the way they were expected to when they came

out of the pandemic. retail sales falling off and nobody wants to borrow, which makes it hard to stimulate an economy aggregate credit falling. at this point, the chinese economy seems to be stuck in low growth mode, which for them is higher than ours, but still much weaker than it has been there and it is not coming back in the way people thought. it is clear that government stimulus can make that happen. alix: he raises an interesting point because, guy, what the west had but china did not and summer specs is the ukraine war. that spurred on shovel ready projects. you gotta put shovels in the ground and do stuff. it is that stuff that requires the aluminum and copper. in addition to the checks that were cut that we then go buy lvmh bags. china did not have that former to do. guy: but europe, we have not done that yet. alix: sort of. guy: at some point we will get

there but we are not there yet. china needs a vix now -- fix now and the housing markets, i was reading the bloomberg intelligence economic peace, still really sick. eddie, what kind of scale are we talking about here? if you want to fix the chinese housing market, put it back on a stable footing, how much will it take? eddie: i think china is looking at his property sector the way the u.s. is looking at its banking sector. it is saying this is something potentially systemic and therefore we've got to keep supporting it and keep it -- because if this falls over the whole of the economy will suffer. but i don't think they are looking at this as a broad-based stimulus for the economy. i think if they move in that direction, in that sense, i think the market is over interpreting what we've got today. but it just underscores that china is still an economy that likes to stimulate, an economy where they like to intervene and

keep growth on the past they want to -- path they want to. if they see them in nonmanufacturing pmi's come down sharply, we saw the klein this month, if they see that coming down, i think this is a signal that they will continue to stimulate the broader economy and maybe even in the way european and western economies did with direct checks or something along those lines. we are not seeing anything like that yet. alix: that is interesting, that the west now is leaning when it come -- leading when it comes to stimulus. when you are talking infrastructure stimulus like with the u.s. where they cut checks, that is different than the world we were use to after the financial crisis. guy: the chinese have been stimulating investment for some time. particularly in the housing market. the government is developing technology and state owned companies and the energy industry also in particular. the u.s. and to similar extent not quite as much as the

europeans, basically it is sending checks to people. during the pandemic, where the chinese liked everybody down. so you have a caution among chinese consumers and a desire to keep saving money. of course they do not have the safety nets the u.s. and europe have. there is impetus to save in china that there is here. will they stimulate? probably. it's essentially controlled economy that has gotten more so under xi jinping, and their goal is to keep civil unrest down. we have seen reports of job creation slowing significantly, people with a lot of education unable to get work now. that will be a real problem for them unless they can get the economy moving again in some areas. guy: the lesson from all of this is the philosophy of money to basically had zero because it is hard to get the engine started again. the chinese are learning that

lesson. final point to eddie, lvmh going to china, tesla, muska, jp morgan, dimon just been there. what do you make of that in terms of what that is telling us about how the chinese are viewing their economy and how important these folks are to that economy? eddie: it is clearly still an economy that is important to them. it is still an economy that these companies still see as a growth market. i think the big worry even for china is a lot of companies are pivoting away from china. they say we see india growing strongly, looking toward the new growth engine and that is something that we are starting to see emerging at the moment. i think that is another reason why in china they want back

stimulus sooner rather than later. particularly when the consumer starts to struggle. guy: more on this conversation next. eddie vander walt, michael mckee, think you very much. coming up, the question of the day, do you play the china stimulus? this is bloomberg. ♪

>> china passed a law and 21 he won to protect national data -- 2021 and they have been doing this quietly but they have restricted foreign access to parts of this database, which are really need to understand china. this month, they are putting personal data restrictions into

place. you need new alternative sources of data to understand china and also is the risk premium to invest in china getting so high because you don't have the tools to do the analysis anymore that it will make china harder to invest? guy: rebecca patterson, a strategist at bridgewater associates speaking yesterday. the texas -- they are going to deliver stimulus for the housing sector. mining stocks got excited, luxury bounce back a little bit. to rebecca's point, do we understand what is happening here? is this an investable story? james athey joining us now. what do you make of the china stimulus story? feels like muscle memory in a past china stimulated, it did it in size and had a meaningful impact. is that what we are seeing here?

james: not at all. i agree with eddie previously that the chinese are looking at the property sector of -- as more of a downside risk fan engine for growth. rhetoric from president xi has not really changed, properties are for living in an speculating. there's a massive overhang in terms of residential properties and the damage done and has the potential to spiral in the opposite direction if it is not managed. i think the chinese are trying to draw a line under risk rather than drive growth forward. alix: it reminds me of opec. you are trying to find a bottom to prevent the follow but not actually boosting for growth for example. as an investor, do you play that at all? james: i would not and have not. i have been opposed to -- this is similar to what eddie just described, potentially training and vma makes sense because there is a reopening of consumer

trade but that is already fizzling it would seem anti-structural growth rate is one of the biggest structural issues the chinese need to deal with if you want to drive consumption. but this is not 2015-2016 stimulus and not 2007 to 2009 stimulus, not something that was see massive demand for commodities given the starting point is obviously very high demand from china for some of these industrial commodities in recent years. so again i do not think china wants to go back to debt-driven unproductive infrastructure and residential investment to drive growth because, ultimately, that is one of the problems they face at the moment, this massive debt overhang that has largely been invested things that are not necessarily productive and not driving growth on an ongoing basis which is ultimately the name of the game. guy: we can debate whether or not a handbag is a productive use for economic spending

another day, but let's use the example -- alix: have you looked at the resale? this is a whole different segment but come on now. guy: that's a whole different story. i guess the point that maybe i want to go back to the thing rebecca pattern sin was saying, -- rebecca patterson was saying, do we understand china enough to make decisions on the effect it will have. i think the lvmh handbag is a case in point, we don't have the data or as much data on the chinese economy so we are looking for the impact that stimulus has in europe. it is like dark matter, you don't know it exists but you can see thefect on other things. it is the lvmh handbag. alix: to that point, for a while it's like do you trust the data? but the idea the data will become even more constricted and not even that but you cannot operate as an investor, operate in china or have the visibility to make an investment and i can imagine how much more difficult

it is if you are a ceo trying to do business there. what do you think about that idea, jim? james: it has been an issue. in ways there have long been question marks around the data. the data uncertainty can be solved by the idea that it is smooth over time and not necessarily stated their time there any given period there might be smoothing effect. i will take a bigger picture view of china here. this does not necessarily help investing in lvmh or not but if you think of the economy like a bucket and growth it is the flow of water and the name of the game is to fill your bucket as full as possible, if the bucket has holes, you can increase the rate at which you pour water in but ultimately as soon as you stop pouring, the bucket will start to md again. that is the idea of structural policy, it is fixing the holes of the bucket and fiscal policy and monetary policy are increasing the rate you pour water into the bucket.

china has holes in its bucket and it knows that is not gonna fix those by solving -- throwing money at the problem. if you choose debt to try to solve your problems in the short-term, you create bigger problems in the world. that is the story of china for me. guy: let's take the next step in that. the beneficiary of that bucket leaking to a certain extent has been europe. and i'm wondering, if we do see china stimulating, if the right way to play as zero, if the bucket is leaking and raining in europe, isn't that the place to play it rather than in china? james: well know, again, the form of stimulus matters. what china has been trying to do is rotate the economy to more western-and focused on consumption. consumption is not an evil, there is this value attached. production in and of itself is not virtuous. we produce a we can pursue ultimately the end goal is

consumption. china has not consumed enough given its motivation because it has a huge savings rate and i think that does relate to one tongue policy and the lack of social safety net. what has happened in china in the last 20 to 30 years is you have this increasingly large, wealthy or middle or upper class who have been gay -- engaged in conspicuous consumption. that has been good for luxury goods. on the others, you had china stimulating the infrastructure investment and that has been great for german heavy machinery exports. i do not think either of those is necessarily expected to grow rapidly from this starting point. i think that is maybe a headwind for europe through both channels. alix: what about for the u.s.? james: obviously the flow is largely in the other direction, u.s. generally has been a consumer of china, china produced goods. there is not necessarily been a lot going in the other direction. the reality is chinese potential

growth is probably lower than rates of gross we have been -- rates of growth we have been used to and that is going to weigh on the global economy. i think you can see that in chinese -- chinese ppis, cbi's expected to be negative soon. we could quite easily be back to china exporting disinflation and the u.s. has largely been the world consumer of last resort and we can see in recent data that large consumers are holding up but doing so by services more broken or domestically focused so that is another engine of growth. in that respect, china and the u.s. are more likely to feed off each other in a native fashion over the next months. alix: which may not be the worst thing if we expert disinflation. maybe the fed likes that? maybe it helps to some extent? thank you for joining us in thank you for saying consumption is not evil. james athey, aberdeen investment director. this is bloomberg.

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>> it's time for the bloomberg business flash, some of the biggest biggest stories -- business stories in the news. global food costs fell in may, dropping to the lowest level in two years and reviving hopes inflation on supermarket shelves will ease. the united nations index and food commodity prices fell 2.6% in may, and grains, vegetable oil, and dairy offset grains in sugar and we costs. the gauge of prices for internationally traded agricultural commodities has fallen 22% from its peak last year, following russia's invasion of ukraine. a drug reduce the risk of tumors recurring by 25%. nine out of 10 people who got this as well as hormonal therapy

after surgery where disease-free after three years compared with 87% of those given hormonal therapy. according to trial results, the drug today at the american society of clinical oncology's annual meeting. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy? guy: thank you very much indeed. counting to the close, let's look at the european stocks of the markets. the miners are having a good day on the back of china stimulus torrey. these are all up really strongly. five to 6%, all doing good business today on the back of the story that we will see whether or not it has legs. take it as you will today, adding a lift to the market. there are other stocks stories focusing on ashworth focusing on. take a look at sbbb. i'm never ever going to pronounce the name so sbbb is up . alix would nail that, wouldn't you? alix: i would crush it.

i can speak english really perfectly like all of the time. guy: swedish, not so much. that is deftly a compound. 51.54%. brookfield look like they are interested in some property in the ceo stepping down. this is bloomberg. ♪ lags like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

guy: a strong finish for european stocks driven by number of factors. payroll in the united states is one of them and china stimulus is another. you have stock in the idiosyncratic stories boosting the story as well but nevertheless you can see bright green, very bright. most markets having one of the best days they have had in a long time. the dax is an exception, deutsche telekom's a drag on this idea amazon might be getting its business via t-mobile. anyway, that is the story and this is what we are watching in terms of the way the story has developed the last five days. we are basically back to where we began.

while we are getting excited about day today, on the week, there is nothing to talk about. we are absolutely flat. midweek a little rally friday, that takes us back to here where we are up 5.2% since the beginning of the week. it was a holiday monday so maybe you can take that out, holiday here in the united states. real estate up by 3.6%, that is the svb effect, i will call it sbbb and it is up by 50%. the sectors up by 3.6%. basic resources of the china story is having a good day, media sources also up. you see weakness in the telecom sector, down by 3.2%. amazon might be and might not be getting into the telecom business. that could have a big effect into the u.s. market. that is the story in terms of sectors. the me show you the single stock point of view. we already mention the names we are watching. rio is up by four present -- up

by over 4%. these are heavyweight stocks, up by 3.23%. we have not mentioned much around the luxury sector, lvmh imported to the upside and svb up by 53.3%. that was a week that was an let's talk about the week coming , some events you will watch out for, the oil story is front and center, sunday we get the opec meeting, monday i will be in istanbul for the agm, the airport transport association. this has been a sector on a charge recently. is that charge going to be sustainable? will people be flying and paying high prices? tuesday, great guests lined up there, she sunak, the bridge prime minister's in d.c.. wednesday we will have coverage of the and thursday a pension debate in france and then we get to the data, friday, china's cpi will be interesting. the inflation story is not going away.

that is one of the stories we are watching carefully in the united states, cbi plus service sector ism that we need to be watching. but monday is my super bowl, sunday is yours, isn't it? alix: totally my super bowl. oil, brent up by 2% at 75, but it puts opec in difficult position. when they announced cuts in april, oil has not been able to rally above 80. we have seen more weakness despite the fact actual numbers of inventories are not that bad. that puts them in this bind. joining us for more is ag parmer , hsbc oil and gas analyst who joins us now. what do you expect from opec sunday? >> as you say, this is all eyes on opec-plus for sunday and it is their first meeting since they announced surprise cuts to the market in april. do we expect a series of because this time. from us it is a no. opec-plus have only just implemented their latest round

of cuts beginning of last month and we are waiting to see the full effects of those come through into the market but also we are seeing a much tighter market in the next quarter. this quarter is a fairly balanced market overall, we are expecting three q for the market to tighten considerably, 1.5 million barrels per day deficit expected, opec themselves are expecting 80 deficit in the second half of this year. we expect that will help lift oil prices. we think opec-plus will take more of a wait and see approach this time around. guy: is that why opec believes it will hurt the shorts? we heard the saudi minister talking about this a few days ago. ajay: they said these comments this time and also in the past as well. we are ultimately exciting the price to rise in the coming

quarter, regardless of whether there will because this time around. they do not need to cut. the market will tighten, china's oil demand is coming up, it is already at all-time highs at 60 million barrels per day, up from 15 million barrels in the firth quarter of last year -- fourth quarter of last year. we think higher prices, regardless. alix: what i find interesting on a point is the fundamentals do not seem to necessarily be reflected in the actual price in that yes you see demand holding up ok. it is a supply that we talk about that is coming online and non-opec countries but that is not necessarily reflected in the price and increasing a confusing environment. guy: i don't think a lot of people know how much oil is in the markets. i think a lot of people will be confounded with how much crude and russia continues -- how much crude russia continues to produce. how unified is opec-plus?

what's the problem between saudi and russia? are they on the same page? are there interests still alive? alix: to that point, will there be fracturing in the opec behind closed doors? hobby or had a great piece out talking about the uae and how in theory they want to have a higher quota. ajay: an answer to your question, i do not think there will be a fracturing of the world. we see differences between saudi arabia, russia, and the uae, we've seen those pop up every now and then over the past few years, in particular the uae case as well. ultimately opec-plus as a whole needs to act in a coordinated manner. all of the members know that this is the case and even if there are differences here or there with russia not wanting to cut to the degree they had agreed they would do, i think in reality they -- the cartel as a

whole know they have to remain united to maintain influence in such a huge global market. guy: what you think the patients of the group will be if oil prices are not significantly higher in six months time, what then? ajay: very good question. i think we are expecting the market to tighten the summer and that is when we expect oil prices to rise more significantly. and we do not expect as a result opec's -- opec to make cuts coming this sunday. if that does not transpire later into the summer, we think opec-plus will maintain flexibility and could come in with another cut once again. they are only cutting now by around 3.6 billion barrels per day and cut by almost 10 million barrels per day in covid. they can cut more if they want higher oil prices. alix: what leads to your bullish oil supply thesis in the summer? supply or demand? ajay: mainly both but mainly on

the demand side. the cut is roughly one million barrels per day coming in may helping on the supply side through the rest of the year in terms of helping with the deficit overall. it is really demand we expect to come once we get into the summer. china oil demand is pretty strong right now. we are expecting the jet fuel demand to recover and diesel demand to recover a little more as its manufacturing sectors improve in the coming months. also in the west, the west has been there in terms of oil recovery in the past few quarters. we think that will change once the summer comes and we get the usual summer demand bounce from the driving season in the u.s. and europe to some degree as well. that will help deport the demand-side globally but overall that is where we expect that to come from. guy: great stuff, thank you very much for your time, appreciate it. ajay parmar, oil and gas analyst

from hsbc. oil certainly having a strong day today, going into the opec decision. commodities driving the london market up by 1.5%. a tick lower during the auction process and holding the decks back a little bit but luxury, cac up by 1.9%. coming up, we look at the fight for talent on wall street. the battle rages. we will find out who is winning and who is losing. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com advancing flight for future generations. ♪ welcome to a new era of flight.

>> i'm simone foxman. coming up, craig packer, blew out capital cofounder and copresident joins bloombergtv at 1:30 p.m. new york time. this is bloombekeeping up-to-das from around the world, here is the first word. former vice president mike pence is off the hook. bloomberg learned the justice

department ended its review of whether he mishandled funds -- classified documents with no charges filed. the demand -- the parma did the view after pence found a small number of documents marked as classified in his home and turned them over to the fbi. he plans to launch a challenge to his former boss, donald trump, for the republican presidential nomination. the chinese ambassador says it would be difficult for russia and ukraine to currently hold meaningful talks to end their conflict. as beijing tries to broker a peace deal. he has been tasked with promoting beijing's efforts to negotiate an end to russia's war and ukraine, part of a wider blueprints be are padded by president xi jinping -- spearheaded by president xi jinping. elon musk is getting more firepower for his electric? price war. tesla and its founding partner are poised to really ash $1.8 billion in production tax credits under the inflation reduction act. according to forecasts from

researcher at benchmark funeral intelligence. the windfall far exceeds an estimated $480 million hall from general motors and lg energysolutions. ford motors will not begin to reap any benefits from the laws manufacturing credits until 2025. global news, 24 hours a day on bloomberg originals and on-air, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am simone foxman and this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. the labor supply, labor market is surprisingly really hot. on wall street, there is a fight to retain talent and that is just getting started and even hotter. joining us for more, sonali basak. we had a great piece on the bloomberg the talked about how hedge funds were scooping up the talent with huge payouts. what do we know? >> huge payouts, 10 to $15 million -- $10 million to 50 million payers and -- 50 million

dollars. they are making more of the top five nba players are making at this point. so hedge funds rbc a hot job. i will say this is not for everybody. there are a lot of hedge funds that are past models. they have flex ability. in terms of how they pay employees because they can charge their investors. that only works for hedge funds and they have been growing assets meaningfully so they are looking for talent and willing to pay for it. guy: so the buy side good, sell side? >> bad. it is not as easy as that but certainly the sell side in particular has seen a lot of pressure. the buy side outside of the large funds have also seen pressure including on when it comes to staffing. it is early in the year so i would not be surprised if you saw pressure in the hedge fund industry. there are massive closures as well but the south side serious pressure, goldman embarking on his third round of job cuts in less than a year.

the morgan stanley job cuts are trickling out as well. we spoke to citigroup this week as well and they said they are trying to keep a handle on it and have not at down to anything else -- have not announced anything else. it depends on whether the environment goes and they are clear about that. they are striking this balance. alix: what i find interesting, when you talk about the ceo speaking at a conference, goldman did not sound great but bank of america seemed positive, morgan stanley did not talk job cuts, they say we may see sales trading softer but it was not a clean read. >> very bifurcated in terms of the tone you hear from bankers. that is certain. goldman did seem quite cautious, negative even i would say. they had a lot of concerns about the environment the rest of the year about to the point you're making, citigroup was saying deals might come back at the end of this year. with that said, none of it will come back to what we saw before. you layer on top the musical chairs you are seeing and the townhall you see for example at barclays where they talk about

addressing the exit is to see of a number of top bankers to jeffries, ubs, the talent more still expert he hot, even in the tough market where many banks are letting people go. guy: so it is really big signals, isn't it? we are struggling on trading, deal close not coming back, looking at the ut today, stands up because it is an anomaly. so why are we still seeing the musical chairs? what are they need to do to retain talent at barclays when others say we will lay people off and things are flat. that is the bit i can come head around. >> some of this comes down to pay and winning. if you look at the tables on mergers and applications, barclays fall -- has fallen off the top 10 and the top 10 you see a lot of -- they can potentially pay their top dealmakers more the same as for investment banking at hedge

funds where there is a sense of letting go of your underperformers at a faster rate so you are not taking from peter to pay paul, you can just pay paul more and you need to keep all when deals come back. guy: ok. peter is not having a good day, paul much better. we all his have a good day when you show up. sonali basak wringing us the latest from wall street. coming up, market venture check is going to return to the turkish finance ministry. we will expand with that means for the country postelection and talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: stocks are still flying higher and you see us deep selloff in the bond market, particularly front end yields up by 15 basis points. abigail is tracking this. >> flying higher is a good way to put it. take out -- check out the gains,

1.2% higher, up, the third week in a row. this network, the biggest percentage gainer of 23% or 22% on the possibility. this was actually a headline last week i believe that they could potentially create these mobile networks. now we have this announcement and idea that amazon for prime members may be offering global services so amazon up 1.5%. before today, dish network on more than 50% on the year but clawing back losses. lululemon, the best day since 2018, up nearly 13%. a great corridor, they boosted the outlook and it seems demand is strong. especially in china. gross margins moving in the right direction so good stuff there. with stock higher, let's look at the vix, extraordinary. we have the vix breaking down. it is below 15 and in fact it has a 14 handle. the old days of complacency is growing. i was talking about the possibility of a move up and

that does not seem likely. if we connected the s&p in the weekly chart we have taken a look at, we will see the s&p 500 breaking out of its range, a weekly range, pretty significant. we have three fan lines showing the downtrend has been reversed, it is now today this week above its 100 week moving average. you can see it very clear, breakout, i think there is a possibility it goes back down into the range but that is clearly not happening right now. guy: we will wait and watch. thank you very much indeed. let's talk turkey and figure out what is happening. the president, erdogan, wins the election. then what does he do? what does have -- what happens with the economic policy? he may be a now -- he may be about to announce a new treasury and finance minister. he is much more orthodox, x merrill lynch, i've had numerous

conversations with him and he voiced frustrations about economic theories talked about in turkey. the idea is he is there to shore up confidence or i mean kind of build market confidence. joining us with more insight is a turkey economist for bloomberg economic who joins us from ankara. does he arriving at the minister of finance imply a change of policy from the president? is that what we see here? >> simsek is a finance minister and served in top positions before. the new steam reported he might be joining the new cabinet and that is to be announced saturday. the new minister of finance. in our view, we think that appointing officials like mama sim set cook can restore confidence, a pivot we see

overdue. declaring a firm commitment to independence would be the next central bank would then do a credibility exit -- credit ability building exercise. including regulation and self currency market intervention. alix: i understand this is like the first step toward this potentially but do we have real insight as to whether or not president erdogan once substantial economic change? >> the country has been following the president view of policy framework shaped around the president's view i should say on how high interest rates actually lead to higher interest rates -- inflation rates, sorry. this approach led to a surge in inflation beyond 85% last year, negative real interest rates, taking a painful toll on the lira and seeing a finance cap

ballooning. so you feel the build in economic vulnerabilities imminently calling for policy pivot. we are coming out of the presidential elections and turkey is now facing another in 10 months march of next year for the local world. that means very rapid tightening in monetary policy could have implications on the growth and also unemployment. in the lead above a vote. that means probably -- guy: if we were to -- let's talk about the fact if we get interest rates going significantly higher, to bring inflation lower, as you say that will have a big impact. how much fiscal room does memo sim set have if he were to be finance -- ma'am it sim sack -- mehmet simsek if he were to be

finance minister. >> that's a valid question and coming at a point in time where turkey had two devastating earthquakes earlier this year. the rebuilding and release going toward that as well as pre-election standing and promises of rate hikes coming later in the year, that leaves very much room on the fiscal state. mehmet simsek is known to be a tight -- to hold a tight fiscal stance as well. so we think that could lead to not having much room in that scenario. guy: great stuff. thank you indeed. we appreciate your time. selva bahar baziki joining us from ankara. i will be in is tim bill the next few days -- in istanbul the next few days because we have an event taking place there. the big ceos will be coming in. we have several like kirby of

united and the list goes on and on. it will be a busy few days. we will be hearing from the president later on. we talk about that obviously on bloomberg. ♪ x with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh some things in life never feel good, like paying your property taxes.

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