tom: this is the european close. the cap and starts right now. european markets off the estimation. not lifting european stocks. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is a bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. tom: happy memorial day in the u.s. bank holiday in the u.k. as well . across the european market, the

focus on the politics of spain and washington, d.c. chinese equities etched closer to a bear market. here again, the relative and conservative optimism around that that deal in washington dc has not lifted european stocks. they are looking for the next catalyst. in spain, losses of pre-3% on the news of a surprise election bid in july after the ruling. euro-dollar 1.0 seven. there is money moving into german debt, benchmark 10 year 2.4 two, lowered by 11 basis points. let's get to the politics of d.c. president biden and kevin mccarthy confident that their agreement will pass congress.

others echoed that sentiment and waiting on the deal's impact on u.s. and global markets. >> everything i am seeing come out of this negotiation gives me optimism and thankfulness that we will get past this. >> zeek huncho is over. there is a 100% chance this passes week. we are done with this for the time >> being. >>it is not perfect, but no deal ever is. democrats should be satisfied. >> global financial markets and economic watchers will be reading a sigh of relief. >> when the u.s. market reopens on tuesday, there will be a bit of uncertainty about whether this passes congress. that will hold the market back. >> it will be a positive development. tom: there we go. the clown show is over.

joe mathieu joins us. what was in this deal? joe: it raises the debt ceiling beyond the presidential election. that has to be the most important part of this deal. we are not one week away from what janet yellen declared default day, the fifth of june. we that out of the way for two years. and this addresses spending. we were hearing about caps as opposed to cuts. this is a far cry from the steep cuts that conservative republicans were asking for. it preserves defense spending, increasing 3%, exactly what joe biden wanted. veterans care is fully funded. there was arguing about what might happen to veterans. it does also expand some work requirements for food stamps and

raises the age from 49 to 54 and back unused covid funding, which is going to help take care of the math in a lot of areas. it does not include the $139 in cuts throwing back to fiscal year 22 that speaker mccarthy and conservative republicans were demanding. it is likely he will lose seven votes on the right flank of the host public and majority, much like president biden could lose progressive democrats who oppose the work requirements, which are not as strict as some had proposed. but it does seem to be a real compromise that will likely be limited to the house and the senate. tom: let's stay on that. what is the process for those of us not in the weeds of d.c. politics? what happens over the next few days to get this across the line? joe: lawmakers will be back tomorrow. looks like we will have a vote

in the house as soon as wednesday. we have got one week. assuming it passes the house -- and that is not a sure thing -- we have just gotten legislative text out and there is 72 hours for lawmakers to read it -- it then goes to the senate. there is a question whether the senate will be a republican -- a rubberstamp or will some republicans hold it up? mike lee has threatened to do so. but i did not expect anyone in washington wants to see that happen. both sides know they will not have all the votes they want and this will likely be passed in a week. tom: how much relief should we take that this has been pushed back? the idea of a debacle seems to be out of the picture until 2025. joe: we will be be on the presidential election at that point. maybe there is a greater

conversation about this. there was talk about whether the 14th amendment would be a more durable solution, but i would not read a lot into it. they will have to deal with this on a congressional level. the question is whether they reform the debt ceiling to confined us to coincide with the end of the fiscal year in the budget negotiating process. that might eliminate a bit of the brinksmanship. tom: interesting about on that front. joe mathieu. do not miss balance of power tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. on bloomberg tv, breaking down what has been happening and how things could unfold. we will continue with this story with lester munson. he is a former staff director of the senate foreign relations committee. good morning. thank you for joining us. let's drop on the depth of your experience. what is your expectation that this deal is indeed in the can? lester: i do not think it is in

the can, but i agree it looks good for house passage on wednesday. the senate will type to remind folks that it is relevant for a couple of days and then pass it by friday or saturday. then we will be in good shape. tom: is that assuming -- we hear on twitter some in the freedom caucus in the house pushing back -- is there an assumption mccarthy will lead to lean on democrats to get this across? lester: absolutely. you will need a majority of republicans, meaning 110 may be north of that. then you will need democrats supporting this as well. is this has been a non-thing for quite some time that speaker mccarthy was going to need to rely on democratic folks to survive his first big-budget foray. that is what we will see this week. the question will then be will

somebody call into question his role as a speaker. i suspect not but that remains to be seen. tom: is it right to assume that it is within the republican party if there is pushback, it will be most acute versus those on the left of the democrat party? is that where your focus is, the right wing republican party? lester: to be fair, there is tension with both the left-wing of the democratic party and the right wing of the republican spread then it goes to the character of those discredit the far left group has generally complained but then supported joe biden. the republicans have felt free to go against their leadership. it is a little more like herding cats on the republican side. i suspect we will lose more both on the republican side. there pressure these days have a better esprit de corps. republicans are more scattered. tom: who comes out of this

better? lester: i think mccarthy comes out looking good. he has prevailed in a number of instances recently when a lot of people counted him out, including myself to be frank. it has been surprising the speaker has done well. he is now in many ways the most important men in washington. tom: when the senate, joe manchin is important. is it going to be plain sailing in the senate? lester: it will ultimately be successful vote in the senate, there will be drama. mike lee is that he wants to stretch this out and delay the process as long as possible. that will probably give them about 48 hours of speeches. in the joe manchin question is fascinating.

his seat next year could swing control of the senate. if joe manchin is reelected, democrats are likely to hold the senate. if he loses, it could beat the republicans who are controlling the senate in 2025. tom: let's say on that. that is fascinating in terms of the implications for one individual. what is the read more broadly from this debate around the debt ceiling and this deal to that race? any other key takeaways? lester: you are seeing the victory of the metal. the moderates in both parties -- and i would include president biden -- and speaker mccarthy have shown there is a broad metal. they will show in the next week that there is a broad metal in american politics. there has been this calendar foot in the land that only --

tail that only extremes determine things but that is not true. we will see a new way forward for u.s. politics to some extent where the middleground is more important. notably, ron desantis has been criticizing this deal from the right. former president trump has not been criticizing the deal. if that holds, his de facto endorsement will have an interesting impact on the primary one forward -- going forward. tom: not every day that you see the middle is winning in u.s. politics. i want to draw on your experience in international relations. looking ahead to that presidential vote and the prospect of continued support of fort ukraine as we look at another day where kyiv has been bombarded. how much confidence do you have that who ever ends of the ec as president -- whether it is a republican -- will continue support for ukraine? lester: i hope we do not need to

ask that question in 20 pretty five. i hope ukraine prevails before that. but if we are in that position, it is likely that the republican president will continue to support ukraine with the military assistance it needs to bring that fight to the russians. that is where the broad swath of the republican party is 70% of elected representatives support robust aid to ukraine. i think the next resident will be in that same spot. tom: appreciate your sites this memorial day. on the victory for the middle where it comes to u.s. politics on the back of this debt deal and the expectation it will get across the line. we are waiting for live pictures of the president. you can see pictures live from arlington cemetery as we await comments from the u.s. president this memorial day. those are the live pictures.

we will keep this for you. the wreath is being presented but members of the u.s. military. you can see the president there holding that wreath. we will listen in. we are expecting him to give a comment or speech. you can see the vice president standing alongside. there is joe biden, are familiarly on the back of -- arguably on the back of what some construe as a domestic win when it comes to the debt ceiling, but this is about the memory of those who have served for the u.s. military. you see the president thank his respects -- paying his respects at arlington national cemetery. stay with us. this is bloomberg.

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global markets crying something of a relief rally after a tentative debt limit deal was reached in the u.s. thank you for joining us. let's start with the debt ceiling deal. if they get it across the line, does that open up further upside for u.s. equities? >> absolutely. already on friday, the signs on friday that a deal was kneeling was starting to give that just to u.s. equities. now that this noise is out of the way and seemingly for a good period of time, that victory of the middle is good.

all that polarization and rhetoric served as a noise that markets did not need given their fragile state. tom: do the fundamentals support the upside we have seen year to in u.s. stocks? aoiffinn: even though u.s. stocks added index level art strong, there has been remarkable dispersion. atrial concentration among life cap tech stocks, even when you take them out, you can see they have been flat even negative year to date to me, that suggest a safety trait going on. large caps tech are seen is that safety. there is that broad-based left in markets. fundamentals suggest there should be something more broad-based. we should see small caps starting to rally. because of consumer demand is strong. the fact that we are not seeing a broad-based rally suggests

investors still have something to fear. tom: they make the money on the side as well. it also sounds like you are pushing back on the wilson of morgan stanley view that we face and earnings recession down the pipe and that we need to start pricing it in. do you agree or push back on that? aoiffinn: i pushed back in the loop. it is all about telegraphing and market expectations. even though we did see earnings weakening already in line with expert nations, there was generally a beating of expectations. it is all about what the market expects. we will seem margins compressing, that in placing pricing power will not -- inflation pricing power will not last forever. and we are already seeing some wins below the surface of distress entering in as something interest payments become unsustainable. that weakness suggests pressure on earnings. also, the consumer will run out of steam if they do other spending this summer. i push on the recession point it

will be weaker but will it manifest in weaker stockmarkets? i do not think so. tom: how do you play the ai rally? aoiffinn: large caps text cannot get enough of ai. that is where investors are afraid to bet against right now. the interesting point will be how ai starts to trickle through. there is no element of a hype right in there right now. anything and everything with ai in the name is being bought. there will have to be some discrimination between those stocks that are a play on that or more of a hype the way we saw blockchain entering the rhetoric around many stocks a couple of years ago. steak or. do not bet against hector -- against attack. it is become the safety trait, a little counterintuitive given how volatile growth can be. tom: and then high rates and high yields at stake. before we let you go -- the

emerging parking -- market play, is it back in turkiye? morgan stanley predicting the funk could go further down if erdogan does not move back from these unconventional policies. aoiffinn: there has been a reinforcement of this new axis of power. we have seen that between russia and turkiye. half-sister has not changed in turkiye. that there may be a little bit of hope in turkiye. emerging markets remain part of our portfolios. however, we recognize it has been a precarious play and has done poorly with the strong dollar. i would say we are underway in emerging markets, even though they are part of our portfolio. you have to be tactical and how you employ it. we like active managers and index. tom: be cautious around e.m..

a reminder of that today with the victor on -- victory of erdogan of turkiye. she also makes the case to stay with court tech in -- core tech in this environment. coming up, more from istanbul in terms of politics. 31 celebrates his election -- president everyone celebrates his election win. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

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i am tom mackenzie. this is -- european equities currently down .1%. futures in the u.s. looking bright. politics of turkiye, everyone extending his -- erdogan extending his rule into a third

decade. many posters thought that is unlikely just a few weeks ago. what is the reaction on the ground in turkiye to everyone -- erdogan getting a third term? >> it was uneventful. erdogan delivered two victory speeches. his followers were jubilant but in the financial markets, the lyric dropped to near record lows. stocks on the other hand rose on optimism that this lack of uncertainty is probably a good thing for turkish companies. tom: interesting in terms of a mixed reaction from turkish assets. the turkish lira under pressure. what are some key issues facing

erdogan in the weeks and months ahead? >> the economy. he did say it himself. he did acknowledge that rapid inflation is a problem. in his second victory speech, he pledged to curb inflation. he said he has done it before, knows how to do it and can do it again. to increase the appeal of that promise, he also did promise a new economy cap with international credibility. we are not your with that means yet. a former finance minister under erdogan, can someone really well-liked by international investors. if that happens, that will happen from of monetary and broader policies. it will indicate -- is possible return will indicate an adjustment if not a complete tournament in turkiye's economic policies.

whether that will happen is something we can talk about with great certainty at this moment, but it is a possibility. it is being talked about. we are looking into it. tom: thank you for the latest when it comes to president erdogan sealing his victory and what it means to the markets and for international relations. the proximity of turkiye politically to russia is one for the europeans and the u.s. as they face up to the conflict in ukraine. let's look at where european markets are trading. not much of a lift from the optimism out of the sea on that deal circulating european markets. more of a concern about spain. but looking for traction. investors in europe have crossed the benchmark. the dax is up. over in france, losses of .3%. and in spain, that is down about .1%. u.k. markets closed.

then and looking at potential recession in europe. more context in the next couple of minutes. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm lauren, i lost 67 pounds in 12 months on golo. golo and the release has been phenomenal in my life.

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this is a bloomberg markets: european close. stocks finishing the day in the red. a couple of key things play in the session and have played in the session. one is the concern about a lack of uplift from china. chinese equities getting close to a bear market. then you have the surprised news around a spanish election being called for the end of july. debt ceiling optimism has led to green on the screen in asia. phone flows on friday has not filtered through the european

session -- solid close on friday has not filtered through to the european session. u.s. and u.k. closed for the holiday. closing the session down about .1%. we can switch over and see how things are playing out across the grr. euro-dollar the focus for us as we wait the next steps from the ecb. we will get arguably another two hikes from the european central bank. data pointing to fragility across europe. a bit of a safe haven tilt. utilities gaining .2% for the session this monday. it is also gaining .2%, very modest. technology down after nvidia and ai. on friday, you had u.s. markets. nasdaq causing us, over 2.5%. futures as well. s&p and nasdaq futures pointing

to gains when the u.s. market does reopen on tuesday. u.s. teachers gaining .2% for the s&p. we are revising higher our views on the s&p given the debt ceiling default concerns seem to be put to the site at least for now. many moving into german debt. the benchmark 2.4 week, lower in yields in german debt. this is the currency to watch, falling to a record low, down .6% the turkish lira as erdogan seals a third term. it has been a mixed picture in terms of asset reaction to the politics of turkiye. equities gaining for the turkish lira under pressure. morgan stanley sees maybe further downside for that currency if erdogan does not switch up his financial policies. a lot of european data to watch for this week.

we start with spanish cpi tomorrow. of course, it comes on the back of the recession that was confirmed out of germany. there is this stagflationary environment in europe where inflation remains sticky but growth is slowing. holger, is this stagflation in europe now? >> i do not think the term stagflation will hold over the summer. we will probably get in the growth in europe. all these concerns about gas shortages, gas prices have fallen and also inflation is likely to head down significantly. come july and august, we will likely have growth outpacing the rising prices, which means more purchasing power for consumers. all in all, i think the insulation bit of stagflation will lessen and stagnation will

give way to modest growth over the summer. tom: interesting call on inflation and wages outstripping price rises. and it is important for households and businesses in europe. unpack that. what gives you optimism that inflation is on a sustained trajectory lower than the second half. is it all about energy? holger: most is that we measure inflation is a year-over-year change. we have lots of big affects kicking in. energy inflation is now roughly zero, may be negative in coming months. food inflation has he. inflation for nonenergy goods is also peaked. next wages will support service inflation. inflation will not fall back on the way to the ecb's target. we should be at rates of 3% to

4% by the end of this year and around 2.5% by the middle of next year. tom: can the ecb afford to go another two is markets are expecting two more hikes from the central bank, given the fragility we have seen in the powerhouse that is germany? holger: in the ecb afford it? that is an interesting way to put it. they will probably go ahead and await. inflation -- go ahead anyway. inflation is not close to target. it means we restrain the pace of growth going forward. i think the ecb should not do that, as insulation will decelerate -- inflation will decelerate on its own. the argument of the ecb is we have to show our hand, fighting inflation while it is still high. the likely result will be two more rate hikes, 20 five basis

points each in june and july, and growth is staying slower than otherwise it should have been, but not quite stagflation. tom: to what extent is china a factor in the surprise? we were surprised by the resilience of the european economy coming out of last year. now we are surprised by the softer data. how much of that case directly to the disappointment around the impulse out of china? holger: briefly on germany, the biggest reason why german gdp contracted earlier this year it was the end of covid measures. a 4.9% plunge in government spending. that had nothing to do with the underlying health of the economy, indeed the major factor now is we have been hoping for a post-pandemic reopening bounce from china who upset part of the

slowdown in the u.s. this post-pandemic reopening bounce from china does not seem to be happening. more precisely, it is happening in china in some services in retail sales but it is not happening for chinese imports of the things that especially germany serves such as cars and machine from the german perspective and the european industrial perspective, the chinese reopening bounce has barely materialized. tom: that takes us to the next major writing partner for europe, the u.s. there seems to be the idea that you skip june and come through with a hike in july. that debate's lives. how are you thinking about the u.s. economy as we weigh that debate? it becomes sharper. holger: yes, the debate is a sharp. inflation in the u.s. is

resilient. the economy is resilient. what does the fed make event? most likely probably a pause in june but it could easily be another hike in july. what it means for the u.s. economy? good news that all in all the economy is turning out to be more resilient than expected, which is why the fed needs slightly higher rates to combat inflation or have enough of a downturn to get inflation out of the system. from a european perspective, we see that in the u.s., services spending is holding up nicely, where's the manufacturing sector is struggling. as your mostly sells many -- europe mostly sells manufactured goods to the u.s., this u.s. economy is not benefiting europe as much. from the european perspective, both china and who usa there they headwind for the

manufacturing sector of europe. tom: hence, the divergence between services and manufacturing data when you look at numbers across the eurozone. always cover headset on the global economy, chief economist at ehrenberg. thank you valuable and important insights. now to spain -- the prime minister has called a surprise election for july 23 after his socialist party suffered heavy losses in local and regional elections. joining us is ben sills in madrid. get us up to speed on how this has positioned pedro sanchez? ben: yesterday was regional elections in 12 of the 17th regions in spain. essentially, the socialists got a kicking. the main opposition claimed

controlled. they will probably take 8 of the 12 regions up for grabs, worse than expected. sanchez came out this morning with a statement on the steps of his official residence. he announced he is dissolving parliament and will have an election in about 6 to 8 weeks. tom: it seems counterintuitive to call an election after you have just suffered significant defeat across regional ballots over the weekend. why not play for time and try to rebuild support before calling and election? what is the outlook for these main parties? ben: probably two reasons. one is from a strategic perspective, things are more likely to get worse for the socialist than debtor over the

next seven months -- then better over the next seven months. there is an argument that if sanchez goes now, he potentially gets the vote done for the pp can consolidate their position and potentially forming majority. the second is tactical. sanchez has shown he is a gambler. he likes to take sharp decisions, likes to take a risk. in this instance, he is aiming to catch his opponents off guard. i suspect that is in the pp headquarters may not have their election campaigns fully drafted. i do not think some of sanchez's left-wing coalition partners are ready yet. they have issues to resolve. by calling and election now, he retakes initiative, as his opponents on the back foot, 10 shakes things up a bit.

tom: interesting. maybe that is the political risk, the rolling of the dice from sanchez and implications for the people's party. what are some of the other challenges for the opposition? do they have to form a coalition? how does this play out for them? ben: it is complicated for the pp. polls suggest they will probably finish first in this election but that is no guarantee. first, as you state, they have to rely on a far right party has emerged in spain over the last five years. the problem with that is if you get into a coalition with them, that rules out deals with the nationalists in catalonia and the basque country that vox emerged to fight. while the pp weight -- may well finish first and have the first

crack at a coalition, exactly how they will get over the line is not clear. they could be in line for an extended standoff like we have seen several times in the past with spanish elections since the traditional two party system broke down a few years ago. tom: thank you, ben sills joining us from madrid on the surprise election being called in spain for july 23 and how different parties jockeying for power will use this time. let's check in on where european stocks settled. we are looking for a catalyst, downside of about .1% across the benchmark. the cac 40 off about .2%. ibex down about .1%. then the, thin liquidity. markets looking for a catalyst. they did not get the up the asian session in the green.

we are looking for european data in the next 24 hours to give a direction for the ecb as it weighs further interest hikes. losses across european stocks. coming up, memorial day weekend marks the start of the u.s. summer travel season. we speak to the ceo of best western hotels and get his take on the demand for those hotels as we head into the summer season. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ miracwas a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation.

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european close. the summer travel season is

officially in effect, great news for lodging companies expecting an influx of demand over the next few months. president and ceo of best western hotels joins us for more on the trends his brand is seeing. thanks for joining us. is it beating expectations? in line with expectations? below? what does demand look like? larry: thank you for having me. we have had a strong winter and spring season. demand continues to be strong, which allows us to increase average daily rates because of demand at best western hotels. tom: on the question of rates, we speak to airline bosses here in europe, the ceo of ryanair saying he sees prices continuing to go up over the next 24 months. is that the same picture within the hotels industry?

or are you reaching a level where it becomes unsustainable? how much of is there around pricing? larry: pricing is in relation to two things. one is demand. the other is our hotel years that hoteliers being reasonable when it comes to prices and operating costs? consumers have been understanding of i will call it reasonable rates, especially at best western, where we are strong in midscale markets where we see demand from families who want to travel during the summer season. we are very cognizant of making sure we are adding tremendous value when someone stays at a best western. tom: what is your sense as you look at input costs, whether it is wages, food, power and energy

, as to the dynamics of inflation? are you starting to see an ebb? does it look like it is on a lower trajectory for input costs? larry: i think so. there are some headwinds associated with the summer travel season. inflation and interest rates, which has some effect on consumer decision-making with regard to summer travel. we have seen demand not materially impacted by inflation or experiential travel. i do not think it is picked up demand anymore. people realize the importance of travel, to go to exciting places, spend time with family. children are out of school, it is the ideal time to travel and stay at our hotels. tom: as you look ahead into 2024, are you concerned about a

recession, about a slowdown in growth and what that the need for consumers? larry: we are hopeful that on the federal government in the u.s. recognizes the impact that inflation has and have taken appropriate means to try to control inflation through interest rate adjustments. we are hopeful that their most recent increase was the last as we see interest rates hopefully moderating as inflation also moderates. it is tremendously important for us in the u.s. that there is an agreement with regard to the debt ceiling, such that we can have positive future growth and they -- there is not that the impact of a mild recession on travelers. tom: your business caters to both business and leisure travelers. is there one part of this

segment that outperforms the other? how strong is business right now? three you expect that to continue in the six months ahead? larry: post-pandemic leisure travel came back more quickly as businesses moderated travel. leisure travel came back strongly. as that came back more quickly, the of site at this point is business travel, which -- the upside at this point is business travel, which did not come back as quickly but we now see as having greater potential for future growth. tom: across the international picture, we see u.s. travelers back here in london. where is the demand coming through? where are u.s. travelers headed to at this point? larry: as we look at forward-looking data and bookings, france, great britain, germany, and italy, across the

european market, we see tremendous growth. we estimate 10% to 12% increases year-over-year in the european markets for toddlers and us western hotels. -- best western hotels. and there is that experiential travel making a difference in paris, rome, london, milan. we think leisure demand will be tremendously strong. tom: president and ceo of best western hotels and demand for u.s. and international markets. still ahead, what investors need to watch for for tomorrow. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back.

this is bloomberg markets: european close. here is what we will be watching -- 10:00 a.m. u.k. time, final greeting of euro area consumer confidence in may. at 2:00 p.m., robert holtzman will speak. ed 4:45, the ecb's franz wild gilroy will deliver comments on further hikes from the ecb. and fed speak later at 6:00 p.m. u.k. time thomas barkin will speak on monetary policy online. that is u.s. -- as it u.s. futures looked to be higher when trading resumes tuesday. nasdaq futures up by .3 percent on modest optimism that a deal has been reached around this debt ceiling stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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