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>> i am shery ahn from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. >> i am annabelle droulers. >> jamie dimon says the u.s. banking turmoil is near its end. we will get reaction live from the bny mellon ceo. treasury yields rise on a wave of corporate debt offerings ahead of the fed decision. some big interviews coming up this hour from the conference including top executives look at how futures are trading. downside pressure after we ended the session mixed. muted on the s&p 500 but there was broad downside pressure on stocks as wall street is gearing up for what is expected to be the 10th straight rate hike from

the federal reserve happening at a time when the regional bank index was down again late in the afternoon session despite the fact j.p. morgan decided to buy first republic bank. this is the second-biggest failure of a lender in u.s. history. it is the fourth u.s. bank to fail since march. we saw that resolution helping a little bit of sentiment and weighing on fixed income markets. the treasury selloff was broad, we are talking about yields up at least 13 basis points because we had u.s. factory data contracting again for a six month. the inflation side of the gauge climbed, not to mention the corporate debt offering. a very busy day today. we have the u.s. dollar gaining ground weighing on oil prices. right now in the asian session, not doing much.

>> keeping a focus on the currency space, the general read through from this decision for jamie dimon to acquire first republic bank is it will give the fed bandwidth for the rate hike in may. we see the japanese yen trading at a two-month low on speculation the boj made make some policy tweak midyear. the dollar is flat with perhaps weakness ahead. the vast majority of economists saying policymakers for the bank are going to keep rates on hold for a second month. broadly, we are looking weaker on the session. the kiwi already trading to the downside. shery: the transaction makes the biggest u.s. bank even larger.

sources tell us j.p. morgan was the only bidder that offered to take the entire bank off of regulators' hands in the cleanest way. it acquires about 170 $3 billion of first republic loans, $30 billion from securities, and $92 billion in deposits. the ftse looking to overhaul deposit insurance. regulators have laid out three options including switching to a targeted coverage approach. sources tell us morgan stanley is preparing for a fresh round of job cuts. senior managers are said to be looking to eliminate about 3000 jobs by the end of this quarter. now to beverly hills to join romaine bostick covering the conference who joins us with a

special guest. romaine: i am sitting down with the ceo at bny mellon, the oldest bank in the united states of america, on a day when everybody is talking about the stability of the banking system. jamie dimon said it is still very sound. are you seeing that as well? >> i agree with that. we are the oldest bank in the united states. we have been around 239 years. i think as we step back and look at what has happened over the past couple of months, we clearly saw a lot of focus on a small number of banks that have had struggles from asset liability management. now we are seeing resolution of this particular chapter. i think this is great. romaine: what is ahead? what are you anticipating? >> we have a lot going on in the world. we have the debt ceiling coming up in the u.s..

that is an important focus. there's a lot of geopolitics in the world. that is an important focus for the fed continues to work on inflation print that is another important focus. as we navigate through that, what we are focused on is helping clients navigate that environment. that is what we are all about, helping them to make their way through that financial world. romaine: you talked about bny mellon being a port in the storm for those seeking safety. why do you think they gravitated to you? >> we have been around for a long time. we have been a stabilizing force in markets. it is also the nature of our business. we have a very high credit rating. we have a very stable balance sheet. we have put a lot of effort into that. for us, resilience is commercial. that might be technological resilience. it might be how we run the platforms our initial system.

but it is also about making sure we are there for clients when they need us. that is exactly what happened in march. romaine: a lot of the money flows coming in, do you anticipate that will stay or will people rotate out when they think that chapter of the banking crisis is over? >> there's a lot going on in money markets. you have the fed on its hiking cycle. we have had 475 basis points so far with probably another 25 this week. you have clients thinking about how they can get the best yield for their money. that might be a retail client thinking about optimizing. it is also true for institutional clients. across our platform, we touch 20% of the world investable assets. we had $281 billion in deposits at the end of the first quarter. but we touch $1.3 trillion worth

of liquidity assets across money market funds. we have an ecosystem around money and we help clients however they want to invest. romaine: you should probably have a good read on economic conditions. do you anticipate we are headed towards her session, and if so, when? >> a lot of that will be dependent on inflation. as the fed has said, data is everything in terms of observing what they will need to do and their subsequent policy meetings. if we can have rates stay here, that would create one outcome. we are not in the predicting business. i'm not trying to call the top in reits. we are trying to make sure for our clients that they are prepared whether it's go higher or lower. we want to be prepared come what may. that is what being resilient really means. romaine: they are looking at economic conditions from the

clients' side and business side but also your own internal business with staffing, your own costs. are there additional costs cuss down the line that may be necessary? >> one thing we committed to investors at the beginning of the year was we would be a disciplined steward of expenses. we have had significant expense growth the prior two years. we made a commitment we would slow that growth in a meaningful way. what we can also be an investor. that is what we are doing. they are investing in real time payments and the future of wealth management with a new product for it is absolutely possible to be a good manager but also be investing in the future. that is what we are doing. romaine: i want to talk about future opportunities, particularly on the custody side. the big announcement last year was opening up to crypto and other digital assets. things have changed a lot from

last october when the announcement was made to where we are now. are you sticking by keeping that door open for digital assets? >> in short, the answer is yes. we think there are interesting underlying capabilities in the technology with blockchain. we think those could be interesting advances. it will take years, maybe even decades, to see it fully play out. but we have heard from our clients they would like our help navigating that world. as one of the most trusted institutions in the world, we cover 93% of fortune 100 companies, they want a partner like bny mellon helping them on that journey. we want to be there for them. romaine: let's talk about the expansion of the wealth management business. how is that going? i feel like every bank is trying to beef up that side of the business. there has to be a lot of competition. >> wealth management is a very important space and there is a

lot of competition. we have two big ways of looking at that business. with a large wealth manager our self, but we also have a large wealth management infrastructure business where we provide platforms to wealth manager clients who want to be able to run more efficiently. if you put those together, that is $2.5 trillion worth of wealth assets on our platforms. and we are investing in them to do new things. they have been growing. last year, our large wealth management infrastructure business group by 5% and that continued in the first quarter. it was up 6% in new assets. romaine: potential clients, what are they asking you now given the economic environment, what are they asking you most before they make that commitment to you? >> one of the interesting things for us is we have so many of the world's biggest institutions as clients already.

actually, they find they do less with us than they could. the breath of our platform across all the things we do, that is what it means to touch 20% of the world investable assets. we are the world's largest custodian and collateral manager. we do all these different things. historically, they have not done them all with us. now, we are trying to open our doors to make sure they can do more of those things with us. that is exciting for us. romaine: i want to circle back to the overall state of the banking sector. maybe it becomes a footnote, no contagion, but there is a concern about how this has affected lending standards, the appetite to lend, and business activity overall for banks looking at regulators and the potential there could be much more of an umbrella over them

when it comes to the regulatory environment. >> we want all of our interests to have a safe, sound, trustworthy, reliable banking sector. it is important. it helps to power u.s. growth and gdp. it is to know one's benefit to have an unsafe sector. one thing we have seen over the last 15 years since the global financial crisis is more liquidity and capital in the banking system, safer banks, that allows us to help clients whatever comes in the economic environment. i think that stability is to all of our benefit. romaine: is there a willingness to move that money around? >> there is a high velocity of money. we have a report that leverages our data assets and touch points in the financial system.

we absolutely see people moving money around. that is for us having that ecosystem where a client may want to make a deposit or put it in a money market fund or repo, it does not matter. we touch that at each point of the transaction and help wherever they may go. our focus is helping our clients navigate because the world is a complex place. romaine: that is a great place to leave it. we appreciate you taking time to stop by our stage at the beverly hilton in beverly hills. that is the ceo of bny mellon, robin vince. shery: great conversation with romaine bostick. let's get to vonnie quinn with the headlines. vonnie: president biden has called top congressional leaders inviting them between may 9 meeting to discuss the standoff. the invitation came hours after janet warned the u.s. risks

running out of cash as early as june. the treasury has been using special accounting maneuvers to stave off multiple defaults. sources say the white house is considering promoting philip jefferson to vice chair in addition to naming a latino to an open board slot. the move is under consideration after pressure from senator robert menendez. kevin mccarthy says he supports sending aid to ukraine. in an exchange with a russian reporter in israel, he also told moscow to end its military operations. he previously called for scrutiny over how much aid washington provides kyiv. >> i support aid for ukraine. i do not support what your country has done to ukraine. i do not support your killing of the children either. i think from one standpoint, you

should pull out. i do not think it is right. we will continue to support because the rest of the world sees it as it is. vonnie: may day protests in france saw a large turnout fueled by anger over pension reform. a labor union says the turnout may have totaled 2.3 million. police made at least 180 arrests and several officers were injured. macron has pushed through raising the retirement age to 64 despite months of backlash. i am vonnie quinn and this is bloomberg. shery: we are at the conference in sydney with a busy day ahead with guests. who are you speaking to? haidi: a busy day ahead of a busy week. thanks are kicking off behind me. we will brief speaking with a gold focused minor who has seen

fortunes rise across the banking sector. before that, we are joined to discuss rising demand the australian property market and whether prices have bottomed out. this is bloomberg.

haidi: this is daybreak: australia from the conference on day one. the surge of migration and the tight rental market seeming to signal perhaps prices have bottomed out. let's discuss this with the head of one of australia's largest developers who joins us exclusively on day one of the mcqueary conference. potentially, we are heading into signs of stabilization. are you feeling more comfortable gauging where market levels are at? >> we have seen quarter over quarter sales increase but we are still below long-term averages. in the last 12 months, we have had the sharpest volume correction in the housing market in modern australian history because we have had interest rates rise at the fastest rate

in modern australian history. we are seeing the chronic under supply of housing and rents are rising. somewhere near the bottom is where i would call the cycle. we are seeing encouraging signs. conversion is where our customers are still dealing with affordability and delivery issues in the market. haidi: did you leverage those lower prices to boost stock? >> we are certainly looking to restock. we do sell a little over 6000 homes a year so we have a constant need to restock. we are looking at buying opportunities over the next 18 months. it has beena period where demand

has come off. we are starting to see recovery. affordability in sydney and melbourne is a key issue because prices are high. it will take some time for the affordability to ease. in markets like perth and brisbane where there are affordable markets, we have delivery issues with construction supply chains and labor. we are still dealing with post-covid disruptions to the fundamentals. we do see that easing over the rest of this calendar year. haidi: the fundamentals are about to get skewed given we are seeing an incredible amount of migration. how does that skew the supply and demand outlook? does that make you more keen to allocate capital to residential? >> immigration is required for the country. that will help in the long term. in the near term, demand is

subdued. longer-term, we are i locating to our living or residential sectors. we used to be less than 20% of capital allocated to residential. we are looking to increase that to about one third of our capital allocation. we are pivoting towards more affordable models like manufactured housing estates or land lease for the over 50's. that is an affordable segment where we are supplying a lot of new product. haidi: you have talked about the unusual rate environment. we still see higher rates. how has your strategy been to deal with that in terms of higher investment hurdles? >> the cost of capital is going up. rates have gone up. we have adjusted for that.

we are seeing good opportunities in our strategy. a couple of years ago, we were over allocated to town centers and retirement living. going forward, we are pivoting to up to 70% of our capital allocation being in living or residential sectors and logistics. both sectors are offering good long-term fundamentals and he returns outlook is positive. we have seen capitalization rates starting to move because the cost of capital has moved across the industry. haidi: is there a strategy involved of selling lower yielding assets? >> we have been selling some town centers. we have done about $600 million over the last two years. from here on, we are looking to allocate more capital to residential sectors. both are showing good medium to long-term fundamentals.

haidi: with that logistics focus, industrial focus, when you look at external tradewinds, does that inform how optimistic you are about that part of the business? >> the just ask is supported by structural issues that have been underway for some time and we anticipate -- logistics is supported by structural issues that have been underway for some time. the move to e-commerce, supply chains are moving to "just in case" from "just in time." because of population growth, every new migrant needs six to seven meters of logistics space. supply is constrained on the eastern seaboard, so we see strong fundamentals for logistics. currently, rents are rising around 20% on new leases. we do see that moderating. that is a very high rate of growth. that is showing you the

demand-supply imbalance in the market. haidi: thank you so much for your time today. much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: u.s. futures under pressure early in the asian session after we finished the regular session down. wall street gearing up for the 10th consecutive rate hike with inflation numbers in the manufacturing sector climbing and surprising to the upside despite the fact j.p. morgan agreed to buy first republic bank, we still saw the regional banking index down. we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams)

let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch.

>> it is always a sad day when you see if they fail, but we are all very pleased that the major source of uncertainty was addressed. that is a good thing. fundamentally, the u.s. financial system is sound. >> the citigroup ceo speaking there, and let's discuss with us we heard. annabelle joins us now from the morning cause. baking stress was a major theme, no surprise there. >> absolutely. this conference brought together a lot of high-profile investors in the industry, and the broader readthrough is that the worst of the stress has been contained, but that has not stopped a lot of speculation as to what could be the next on the default, and pain could be felt for owners from office building -- billings. you have this rise of remote work, and vacancies at a record high. that is also compounded by

rising financing costs. this has been a theme of the events. here is what we heard from the apollo global management ceo. take a listen. >> part one of the crisis is over. we have a second wave in commercial real estate. a system that has government guarantees where there -- people's money is entrusted, losses create concern. it will be systemic, but not concentrated. regional banks are the primary lenders to many real estate issuers. >> what about the implications of the banking stress for the fed? >> this has been something else investors have been debating. how much of the banking stress is doing defense work for a. this was something that came up in our interview with the guggenheim and park -- guggenheim partners investment cio. we heard that the fed can be

expected to hike at its meeting in may but over the course of this year we can expect a significant economic slowdown to appear in the midpoint of the year. we also spoke about this environment where capital is being rationed had investors with cash to comply will be able to demand more production. whether this is a systemic risk, take a listen. >> the question is does it become systemic. by that we mean does it bring down the system as we saw in 2008. i don't think so. i don't think that is based on hope. i believe it because there is still so much capital in the system, elected to where we were in 2008. -- relative to where we were in 2008. >> vanessa hudson will succeed alan joyce as qantas ceo in november. alan joseph will be retiring in november and vanessa hudson has been named as successor.

there has been a lot of speculation as to his future after jones attracted the ire of a lot of customer -- the customer base. the next ceo and managing director will take the role in november 2023. her current role will also be continued, this is the 13th ceo in 103 years. we will be hearing about the new cfo as well. it is interesting that given a week -- about a week if so ago, qantas was standing by the idea that joyce would stay at the helm at least until the end of 2023. we had a local media report that said that a successor could be picked soon, and to hear this is something of a watershed moment for qantas. we continue to see how much that

change means given that a new cfo will be named as well. that enrichment of shareholders is one of the big takeaways in terms of the focus here. >> breaking news out of singapore. a one time items index coming in at 1.27 billion dollars -- $2.57 billion, estimatedpse. fees came in at 365 million dollars, and we were expecting while assets under management to show growth for the bank given how credit suisse is -- credit suisse is outflows weight in -- wave in-- weighed in. the performance is in line with estimates, the loans ratio at 1.1%.

they are saying a loan growth of three -- .325%. is this growth remains healthy with pockets of moderation according to them. -- business growth remains healthy with pockets of moderation. >> australia's central bank is expected to extend that positive and -- in its rate increase cycle on tuesday. most economists at bloomberg think that they will keep the cash rate at 3.6% as we see signs of cooling inflation. let's get more from swati pandy. this might give the rba some breathing space is that true backup -- echo --? >> what we are seeing with the rba is that they have become data dependent, they paused in april and they did state that does not mean that it is the end

of the tightening cycle. but they are moving cautiously and inflation came and lined with their expectations, and that is reason enough for them to stay on hold. >> and they are still going against the current, especially among developed economies where we are not seeing the fed move as of yet, we are not expecting the ecb move -- to move as of yet. what is the reasoning for the governor right now? >> the rba has been done is compared to other central -- david compared to other central banks-- doveish. the reason is that wages growth is not as strong as we have seen in some of those other countries. and inflation pressures are also not as strong.

we are already seeing signs of inflation easing. there is that concern that services inflation will be sticky, but compared to other central banks, the rba is willing to be patient. the governor has said that he is not in a hurry to bring inflation down to the target. he said it is ok for inflation to be within the target by 2025, which is their forecast. i think that is the biggest difference. the reaction of the rba compared to the fed or the rbc. >> swati pandy with the latest. here in new york, we have vonnie quinn with the headlines. >> the treasury is boosting its borrowing estimate for the quarter to $736 billion. an increase of more than 750% from the $278 -- tortoise $78

billion at the start of the year. congress will either raise or suspend the debt limit, they say. it also affects their estimates of revenues and spending. elon musk has agreed to pay $10,000 to settle a defamation lawsuit. tesla's rocky production was called out on twitter, and then the defendant accused elon musk of defamation. the imf chief says china is shifting its thinking about restructuring after getting burned by creditors. china has joined traditional western lenders in the paris club in recognition of creating a debtor debt mechanism. many low-income nations are near debt distress. >> we are seeing some shift in this thinking. why?

for a very simple reason. because they are now being burned. nothing makes you more eager to understand that restructuring that when a country says no, i can't pay you back. >> global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i have vonnie quinn and this is mover. >> coming up, emerging market equity bulls betting that china's reopening will drive a year of performance are seeing their hopes for. the managing director of credit agricole gives us her outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the benchmark for developing nations stocks has brought out losses of more than 7% since a peak in january but is also underperforming by the most in three years. chinese shares have contributed 70% of those losses. let's bring in tonya chan in hong kong. how is the trade stalling and affecting ems? >> you have investors who have grown skeptical about the china recovery. we have seen pockets of positive data come through, but there was negative underperformance in industrial production. and so i think now investors are

a little bit skeptical to see if this is kind of the renormalization of covid disruption or if there are signs of more sustainable growth ahead. you have a couple investors who are looking for not just a broad sweetener, or using capital injections but looking for ways in which policymakers will try to reach excite -- re-excite youth on up -- youth employment and other factors. >> is there any consensus in terms of how long the underperformance will last or is this a blip? >> i think investors are looking for two more quarters are dated to see how things shake out. a lot of the benchmark is going to be china, and a lot of the rest of the country is very much -- countries are impacted by china's growth. south africa, south korea, they will be looking to see how the exports outlook looks like for china. and there is this broader

negative sentiment around investing in china that is still there. keep in mind, late last year we had this rally when the reopening was announced and that was a lot of bearish positions being unwound. but right now, a lot of these investors are looking at what the next hurdle is to actually put their money back into work in china. >> tania chen there. this this -- this next investor says that the rally was given by liquidity, but that is expected to recover. olga yangol is here with us in new york. great to have you in the studio. was the rally that we had in the margin markets this year, everett was so optimistic, was that a had fake -- everybody was so optimistic, was that fake? >> there were multiple factors. on one hand we had the u.s.

government being able to borrow and driving down its savings, the cash cow of the set -- the federal reserve. in the wake of svb, we also had the federal reserve supporting financial stability through the provision of temporary loans. in both -- both of these factors have been quite important supporting risk assets. >> so you are saying that if we see the debt talk in past work out that is going to draw more liquidity out of ems? >> perversely, that is what we expect. it can actually be explained simply. the government usually borrows and spans, or it taxes and spends, or it can draw down its savings. and all these things are liquidity neutral or liquidity supporting. when the government starts to borrow and save by stashing the money away, that is liquidity withdrawal. that is not the only factor, of

course, we also anticipate that slowing the economy and persistent inflation would keep the fed cautious and keep rates high. >> tania was telling us about how china's reopening seems to be stalling and it isn't having the desired effect. how are you positioning for the changes we are expecting in the chinese economy? >> what you see in the data is quite interesting. because the nature of chinese recovery, it is very domestically driven. that is why non-manufacturing pay lines are very strong. that is partially because of sentiment, and also data about pre-pandemic levels. manufacturing pmi's are more externally oriented, and not as strong. basic be signaling to us that external demand from developed economies is not going to be supportive. so, you know, even that -- in

that sense, yes, the chinese economy will be strong but not necessarily positive for the rest of the world. >> we were really surprised when we got china's pmi's and we saw manufacturing contract for the first time this year. we do have slashing pmi numbers later today as well. given this environment, how are you positioning if you are trying to be defensive because we have seen that huge rally in currencies like the peso, and a lot of optimism for some of the smaller economies as well. >> absolutely. in fact, our main thesis at the moment, we want to be on currencies that have been favored by investors. we didn't do that because there was something wrong with mexico, but because it has been a pristine story, pesos have been most favored, we look at

indicators to suggest that it is the most crowded currency. and to the extent the investor sentiment reverses those currencies would have to go first. . >> where there currencies that sold that are at the upside than others because of optimism over china? >> we think that once the dust settles and valuations just there could be opportunities. even in the case of mx and it is about violations. when people asked me what will make you go along, i say that there is always a price. >> olga, argentina. it seems to be reaching a breaking point with this at this moment. are we going to see a devaluation? >> argentina is interesting because we thought that this volume has been closed and now we have to dust off our argentina books.

i think this is going to be an interesting time in argentina because we are having an election upcoming in the fall and for the first time in over 100 years we could actually have a not -- new government. that could mean a number of things. as it is, if you look at the state of argentina it is not good. the country's expensing the worst drought in six years, reserves are running very low, inflation is over 100%, and the exchange rate has been under a lot of pressure. the parallel exchange rate has been trading over 100% weaker than the official one. and ahead of the election, the current government, which is actually not very popular, is try to support the exchange rate the various unorthodox measures. meanwhile, the other candidates, the leading candidates and the candidate that is most popular

is suggesting dollarization. especially what that implies is that one way or another we are going to let currency go. either we let it go and keep it or replace it with the dollar. >> before the ego, geopolitical fragmentation. you don't like the dollar so much at this point. >> this is only part of the story. we have the dollar in our portfolio, but one recent we are reluctant is because of the negative carry. you would pay for shutting it because of that negative carry. in the wake of global slow down, we expect that the demand for taiwanese exports will decelerate as well, and that is the second reason. i would say lastly the taiwan dollar is susceptible to voltage of political headlines given the china taiwan situation. >> ok, great to have you in studio here in new york.

head of emerging markets and research. for more what is happening -- on what is happening in the market -- margin markets, be sure to turn into here more, including debt analysis. broadcasting live from hong kong. listed through the app, and bloomberg radio.com as well. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪ go to getrefunds.com to learn more.

>> a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. meta-has emerged as a copywriter. it raised $8.5 billion in a deal, alden the largest portion of the offer, a for you -- years security yield with several basis points over the treasuries. the citigroup ceo is expecting the economy to be in worse shape in the second half of the year. speaking to bloomberg at the milken conference she tells us risks are tilting to the downside after the recent turmoil in the banking sector but the world's largest economy is well-placed to path quick rebound. >> we anticipate a reception -- recession of the back end of the year. but the amount of pent-up

demand, the mental strength of the corporate at the consumer coming into this, the usual signs of a contraction are not in place. and i think we will see the u.s. economy, unlike others, pull out of whatever recession environment could end up happening pretty quickly. >> just recapping breaking news that we had earlier this hour. qantas naming vanessa hudson as its ceo, making her the first woman to lead the airline. we note that she is the current cfo, what more do we know about her experience and what she could bring to the role? >> the current cfo is a veteran, she has been at qantas for over 28 years, she has been in a range of roles, including chief counseling officer, she has led

qantas in the americas and new zealand, and really takes over the airline at a watershed moment. alan joyce has been in chart for 15 years, he is going in november and he has been the face of qantas for as long as people can remember. although he has been very popular with shareholders he has delivered record profits, led -- and let the airline through two crises. he is leaving in the wake of job cuts, union protests and passengers dealing with a huge surge of demand after covid. that is what hudson will inherit from joyce when she takes over in november this year. >> what about business performance and sells -- sales? >> qantas is doing very well financially for the moment.

it has delivered record profits, it is due to keep on doing that. and that is largely because joyce has really reduced costs so much through covid, cutting more than 8000 jobs. vanessa hudson will also have to somehow pay for the huge investment that joyce has ordered. from financial specters, the biggest in financial history. >> angus whitley with the latest on qantas. we will also have the president and ceo of astellas pharma with its latest acquisition, up next. this is member. -- bloomberg.

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