>> rally rules on. the dac is up. a little underperformance coming through from london, but another green screen. europe goes on and on. for how much longer? we are going to talk about this during this show. the countdown to the close starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel.

guy: european stocks are higher off. the story is dramatic when you compare it with uris markets -- u.s. markets. is the ecb going to be more hawkish than the fed? brent crude up 1.8 nine. commodities seem to be fairly positive now. alix: in the u.s., the rally rolls on. we are about 50 points away from that 200 day moving average, but a lot still sounding cautious. within that, you are seeing commodities do well like the energy index. the dollar index down .7%, continuing that down slide over the last week. looking at the indicator for more downside to come, how do you express a weaker dollar

position? those are the two macro factors. at the micro level, i think lulu and macy's are fascinating. lulu still says people are in their stores shopping. macy's, a little different. they said holiday traffic missed estimates. inventories are a little cleaner, but they are cautious. if you are managing your margins like this and your topline starts to fall because people start losing their jobs, you are in a tough spot. these guys are highlighting it. guy: it is interesting, what is happening with luxuries in europe. 55 week highs for all these companies today. the list goes on and on. european luxury make it a little dinged up this year, but it is seen as being a better area to hide out from a recession. these companies are seen as having pricing power.

if china comes back, you can see a real outlet for revenge spending and these companies could benefit from that. it is not just china. i hear what you are saying, but the u.s. is expected to hold up well as well. alix: the job cuts for tech is one thing, but when you see wall street cutting jobs more than we expect, does that trickle through more to the luxury sector. i do not know. if the topline is compressed along all incomes, that will be hard for luxury and it depends on how we define luxury. we spoke to rolls-royce's ceo and he talked about the strength of it. it is not just about shopping. >> all the rolls-royces we have sold were around $500,000, each car in average, which is an achievement and instigates that indicates -- indicates the

pricing power and that luxury is booming because we are not really in the car market. we are in the luxury goods market. that market has seen tremendous growth. guy: the ceo of rose -- rolls-royce a few moments ago. i wanted to turn to our question of the day. european luxury or u.s. tax? is that a trade you want to think about? let's try to answer that question and figure out which way you should turn when it comes to your portfolio. not letting the grass grow under his feet, and the studio in new york. let me start with you. really positive on names like porsche and ferrari and miss sadie's -- mercedes. they talked about that as a combination of luxury and tech. these are the areas that citi

see as being recession resistant, certainly compared with other areas, certainly compared to tech. >> zeroing in on what is happening in the car industry, think about what has been going on the last couple years since we started to come out of lockdown. we have been constrained in terms of production, so that has applied to all of the industry. we have a situation where the chip supply is starting to come back. some mass-market manufacturers are able to get production running again. the luxury players are as well. we will see price pressure in mass-market segments, whereas mercedes, bentley, or rolls-royce that we just heard from, those are companies that really have the ability to bring back incremental production without necessarily making huge compromises in terms of pricing. alix: you were at cse.

do you think this luxury auto world can sustain anything in the economy? >> the problem from -- for investors is there is no one clear picture. there is evidence the luxury segment holds a better. the parallel would be apple, where the iphone pro is still in demand. i spoke to a ceo friday and a big part of market strategy is to shift to that very premium segment, the very high price point segment. he described china as very fragile, because while policy is supportive from a consumer perspective, more economical tech business friendly policy, the virus is still spreading their. -- there. there is optimism around growth forecast for china.

the wildcard is the consumer. the virus is spreading. it is hard to see if they will go back out in force. guy: is apple in that mix? european luxury is on a chair with 52 week highs across the board. as you look at u.s. tech, which has been battered, should we be thinking about certain of those names in the same line? torsten was saying he is not a car company, he is in the luxury business. can we describe apple the same way? ed: now. -- no. we are not at a 40 handle and price-to-earnings like we were in 2021, but we are still mid 20's to low 20's, so there is a

view that tech is still expensive and at the same time, while we are worried about fundamentals, looking across the nasdaq, the forecast is for earnings to drop two percentage points year on year. with the s&p is forecast to grow to percent and the problem is now we have gone through this rate cycle and there is a discount on the premium for tech. there is worry about recessions. you have to ask yourself how are session proof is a company like apple? it is all well and good, me saying the data tells me there is life here the data tells us there is no demand for the handset and other products. that is why apple has told suppliers to reduce shipments of certain components and they do not need to build as many things. there is a concern that earnings will be a disappointing story and fourth-quarter earnings in particular.

i'm not just talking software. everything could be rough in the next few weeks. alix: could you make a line for luxury car companies and how investors are pricing that in? ed: i would follow up on tech multiples of the u.s. by pointing out these european luxury car names have not really had the sort of multiples that the tech sector got used to for many years, so there has been this bellyaching on the part of the germans. the whole reason were sadie's split up the company was so that mercedes proper could get more of eight has low like valuation. they were enabled -- never able to get close to what elon musk is able to pull in, but these are companies that do not have the source of earnings multiples that you would consider expensive, so that might also be coming into play for analysts. alix: sort of on the upside of

that conversation. good roundtable. the new york fed is releasing its survey of consumer expectations, and the one year is the lowest since july of 2021, falling to 5%. the three year stays at 3%, but the shorter-term inflation expectation is rolling over. coming up, we will get more insight into the question of the day, european luxury versus u.s. tech. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: let's get back to our

question of the day, european luxury or u.s. tech? macro hive ceo and head of research joining us now. this boils down to the question of united states or the rest of the world, and i am hearing a lot of stress dealing with this question now. european luxury is in the medical evaluations of potential high growth rates and a story for 2023. does u.s. tech comeback? how do you see the debate? >> it is a big debate that will not be resolved easily. if i had to lean one way or the other, i would lead toward european luxury. what helps is china is reopening and the story of the past two years has been chinese performance and now we are

seeing the reverse of that. guy: a lot of ceos are saying -- still talking about china being fragile. can we bank on china? bilal: we have seen china surprise to the upside constantly, so terms of restrictions, they have eased them more than people thought given the increase in death rates and they have increased stimulus programs, so they have introduced some additional fiscal stimulus measures, as well as easing some that they had on property sectors. although it is fragile, all the movement from china is that they are pushing hard on growth. guy: are we going to see european valuations go up or just see u.s. valuations go down sharply? bilal: good question. my general view would be we will see u.s. valuations come down

further but also european valuations may struggle in that context. the bigger question for the u.s. is earnings. last year, we saw significant falls in u.s. and global stocks but we did not see earnings fall much, so that is the largest question -- the larger question on whether we see the drop many anticipate. alix: you are seeing reaction to the downside with lululemon, but what is the best way to express the view you just laid out? there are tons of shorts and the dollar. the technicals look like a weaker dollar. how do you express that the best that is not already priced in? bilal: my sense is that the china story has not been fully priced in. my bias would be to push harder on the china side, so if one had to express a dollar view it would be to sell the dollar against china, so dollar-china could fall further.

the australian dollar could do well. on the equity side, chinese stocks could outperform the rest of the world. i would probably lead -- lean harder on the china side because i think there are more diverse views around that. alix: do you like selling the dollar or is that played out? bilal: right now, i would like to sell the dollar. i do not think it is a long-term trade, but i think this is a good environment to sell the dollar partly because of the china story and partly because the market is pushing hard on the end of the fed hiking cycle. guy: you have always had a view that the fed goes higher than the rest have. are you having to rethink that? bilal: we are holding onto the view that the fed will end up raising rates to 7% or 8%. where we have changed somewhat is our view around inflation.

we thought inflation would be sticky for longer. we now think that q1 could see softer inflation, but we think it will stabilize if not pick up a bit in the second half of the year. so in the end, the fed will end up raising rates, similar to what we saw in the 1980's when the fed raise rates sharply. it is very unusual for us to have a phase where you have inflation spike and then grow like that. alix: in that scenario, what bursts? where is the money at risk the most in that scenario? bilal: that scenario suggests equities have further downside to go but the larger risk would be private markets and credit markets. both have not really suffered as much as some other markets, so when we do get the mix -- next big move up in fed rates, that would be an environment where

one is the funding cost of all these trades and on the other hand you start to focus on the hard landing as well. guy: there is a view that the ecb will be more hawkish than the fed. is that wrong? bilal: it sounds wrong, but right now at least the tone from the ecb in q1 will be more hawkish than the fed. core inflation has been higher and has picked up, unlike the u.s., which is falling. in the end, the ecb will hike rates to maybe 4% at most, whereas the fed is already about that. in terms of levels, the fed is more hawkish. alix: if inflation comes back to the u.s., does it not come back to the u.k. and europe? bilal: inflation could come back in europe as well. the difference between the two is the u.s., the overall u.s. economy domestic demand is in a stronger position.

the energy picture in europe is stronger as well compare to europe, so europe has benefited a lot from the growth side cut mild winter, and moderation in the energy picture, but that could change in the next 12 months. guy: you have talked about your love of cash. does it continue? bilal: fight had to pick one asset class, continues to be cash over other asset classes. if you look from the mid-1960's until the early 1980's or mid-1980's, cash outperformed equities and bonds, so when you go through inflation and so on, cash tends to do well. with yields down, that is attractive levels, so my bias would be for cash. there are trades you can do like long china stocks. if i had to have a core asset, it would still be cash alix: it

is like a tour around the world. what was your take on what happened in brazil over the weekend? i am wondering how you think about that and hedge something along those lines. bilal: number one, it shows transitions after elections are becoming more challenging. you sought in the u.s. and now brazil. that said, my bias is that lula will retain control of the government and retain the election results. when you have these events, any selloffs of brazilian assets triggered by these protests, my advice would be to fade them and buy brazilian ads asked -- assets. these are more one-off incidents, and the overall system and brazil is still robust enough. guy: is that part of your china trade? bilal: it is part of the china trade and the view that lula

ultimately will be more conservative on the fiscal side, so there's a lot of speculation now that he will allow fiscal targets to slip, perhaps the constitutional changes, but we think you will not go that far partly because he is already seeing brazilian assets selling off. part of it is china. part of it is fiscal incentives. guy: biggest tail risk and conviction trade? bilal: the biggest tail risk now would be that the fed does not cut rates this year. everyone is positioning portfolios around the fed easing. stocks are up largely because of fed easing. that is one of the biggest risks now. in terms of other risks -- are under risk here in terms of how

they value their assets. there is weakness there. guy: and cash is the conviction trade? great to catch up. we look forward to seeing you through the rest of 2023. a lot of these of macro hive -- bilal hafeez of macro hive. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. richard branson's virgin orbit says it is on track for britain's first space launch tonight. the take is planned before -- between 9:40 and 11:00 p.m.. in the u.k., shoppers taking out a new credit cards face record high interest rates on bills, according to the average annual

rate. it is up four percentage points from a year ago. and an activist investor has bought a bayer stake. the inclusive capital focuses on social and environmental investing. that is your latest business flash. guy: time for last orders, a look at stocks that have been on the move today. really interesting action at the core of the european trading story. one of the best performing stocks has favored -- faded a little. this company, really positive note. they rate the stock is a buy. in terms of where the company is going, they see a big pickup and profits this year and that stock

up by nearly 8% today, one of the best performers. in terms of what else we have been watching, look at what is happening with videogames makers. frontier got relatively small developer, really did not perform over the christmas period. that stock is relatively small, down by 41%, but it has bled into some of the bigger stocks today. you have ubisoft down. ea has not reacted but it signals back to the idea that you're seeing a slowdown in the consumer. frontier is down pretty hard. then we come down to a range of european banks. we have faded a few of them now. out west, bank of ireland at a 52-week high. it has faded, but nevertheless

european banks and luxury continue to perform strongly. details to follow. the close is coming up next. we will work our way through what is happening, european stocks up performing u.s. stocks has been the narrative. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service

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guy: european stocks tracking higher. let's show you what the map looks like. spain and london a little soft. let me show you what the session has to give you an idea of the trajectory we have been on. some sector rotation within today has been interesting. banks started strongly and faded a little. our question of the day is european luxury or u.s. tech. it is actually european tech that is outperforming today. let me show you what is happening from a sector point of view. we are tracking higher with

technology. i just brought you the note we got early on. it is having a big impact on the technology sector, which is not as developed as the united states. real estate is up. financial services are up. there are only two sectors in negative territory, food and beverage a little softer and utilities tracking lower. there are a few notes out on utilities. i come back to the front tier develop and story because it highlights what's potentially happening in the gaming market, which maybe gives you an idea of the consumer market. you would have thought those two would maybe go hand-in-hand come and then we come to the lvmh up by 1.63%. that stock has hit a 52-week two week high. the luxury sector going from strength to strength and europe. alix: can it last?

european luxury versus u.s. tech. do you sell u.s. tech and buy european luxury? >> probably that is right. u.s. tech is quite wide-ranging. some large names have built incredible competitive advantages, but there is a huge tail of mid-cap and large-cap companies at the end of last year, which got up to $100 billion in market cap. i would still avoid those. the long tail of u.s. technology shares. when you look at european luxury, it has tailwind and is a consolidated industry, hard to crack into it. these brands have a huge amount of heritage and are doing well. you have the china reopening story on top as well as a little bit of people trying to find ideas outside the u.s. for the first time in a decade.

i think i would be a buyer of european luxury versus u.s. tech. guy: you talk about people looking for opportunities outside the united states. is that the trade for this year, u.s. versus the rest of the world? freddie: it has been the trade for the last couple years. it has not quite been playing out yet, but there are global businesses in europe and the u.s. which are phenomenal in their quality and they have outlook and returns and growth. the discount available on those businesses in europe is huge compared to u.s. stocks. there are fewer of them and people have been able to ignore it. you look at energy stocks and companies in europe and the u.k. trading half the valuation of peers who look almost identical in the u.s., so there has been this building gap between valuation of similar quality

businesses, whatever it might be come across the pond. that has been true for a couple years. i expect if it does start now it can last from -- for a couple years. alix: i look at your top 10 holdings. bp is the top, but a lot of those top 10 are u.s. companies. walkers through your thinking -- walk us through your thinking. freddie: you will find more quality names, but we are not very big traders in latitude. by virtue performance, what moves higher in the top 10 is the stuff that has done well historically. other stocks have been lagging a bit and they are the ones we may be expect to pick up the mantle for the next year. that is not a positioning thing, more of a backward looking indicator.

and there are u.s. names in europe performing well. guy: what about the fixed income versus equity trade? how are you thinking about the portfolio from that point of view? a lot people expect bonds to have a big year. freddie: a big year which way? guy: to outperform. freddie: they had a big year last year, but it was tough. we had almost no duration in portfolios. 18 months ago. over the last 12 months, we have added around half of what we have looked at over time the longer data, all inflation linked or the vast majority inflation linked government bonds. positive real returns of 1.5% in

the u.s. is still very attractive and of bonds do have a big year, a positive year, which i think is on the balance probable but also a major tail risk, even in some of the tail risk scenarios, bonds should do as well or better. we are relative buyers compared to conventional's in the government markets, but we have been increasing risk a lot over the last 12 months. alix: how do you feel about cash now? freddie: if you're lucky enough to have a lot of cash -- 12 or 18 months ago that was great. as you get this sharp reversal in markets, that was good. depending on where you are, cash could achieve a decent yield. but really i think now is the time to start thinking about taking more duration risk and with an equity markets -- equity markets as a whole are still

fairly or maybe overvalued. you have pointed out one major dislocation, europe versus the u.s.. european markets are not that expensive. in all markets, there are stock trading and expensively. we believe we own many of them. you can still find attractive opportunities in the equity market, which will be a superior return to cash returns, even though cash returns have gone from zero to three. guy: do you think you will trade more this year than last year? freddie: we have been thinking about it. we expect to. over the next few years, we expect trading to be higher. it has been low the last two years, but we probably will. our anticipation is markets globally will be more range bound than directional with major swings maybe but the trend

is going to be steady and not up a lot. so the requirement to actually capitalize on opportunities in the market more readily will probably come to the fore in the next few years. i expect we will trade more but certainly not daytrading. alix: we will be more range bound and you will not get that directional upside, so you have to trade more. before we let you go, what is the impact that china is going to have? will it be inflationary or help drive growth? do you need to start playing that in some way? freddie: it will start driving growth and demand growth as china reopens. that is a good thing. the real distinction comes with what happens with supply because in one sense a lot of stocks we

have invested in and that we look at our saying inflation is coming through because of supply constraints. a lot of that is locked up in china. if that is released, perhaps there is a deflationary effect on the market to counteract the inflationary effect. it is hard to estimate the net impact of those two. i would look at both of those. i do not think it will have a meaningful swing on inflation but it will be beneficial for growth, so i think it is a positive and benefits investments through higher global gdp and unlocking of supply chains easing off cost inflation. it should be a positive, but it will not be without volatility. guy: it is always nice to catch up. thank you for your time today.

european markets are done for the day. generally a positive trend. we have been trending higher through most of the section, a little underperformance from the london market today. a lot of big names report over the next few days in london, so we will watch for what is happening there. you have some big house builders reporting numbers, so we will have that through the week and also catch up on what is happening with u.k. politics. live on dab digital radio come broadcast to be found later on spotify. alix: you have newly sworn in the speaker of the house kevin mccarthy facing his first test today after 15 rounds of bruising and chaotic voting. next, president biden is in mexico. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg markets. you're looking at a live shot of the principal room. this is bloomberg. ♪ keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. the u.k. is considering sending challenger two tanks to ukraine, the first time a western country has given ukrainian forces tanks to fight russian troops. the u.s. and france announced they are sending infantry fighting vehicles to ukraine. it appears the european central bank is strengthening the case for more interest hike rates. it appears wage growth will be strong in the coming months. the ecb says that reflects robust labor markets that have not been affected by the slowing of the economy.

russian president vladimir putin's plan to squeeze europe by weaponizing energy look to be fiddling. gas reserves are still nearly full and prices have fallen to prewar levels. europe is likely through the worst of the energy crisis. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: we took four days of negotiations before kevin mccarthy was elected speaker of the house. terry haynes says the gop fracture will have major consequences. he wrote, the default risk will almost certainly mean an increase in the spring and summer to around 40%. unprintable ways not seen since 2011 and 2013 crises. let's get the latest with jack fitzpatrick.

talking to sources, to the events over the weekend make a debt ceiling debate more likely to truly get ingrained into the market? >> there was a risk involved with the debt ceiling debate. the fact that congress has struggled so much to get through a basic vote to select a speaker was a bad sign, but that was reflective of what we already knew, that the republicans have a narrow majority and the challenge of getting something through that narrow majority in the house and the narrow majority of the senate is going to be a messy experience. the fact that they got through that, there is now a speaker, and there were apparently no real, concrete demands made on the debt limit. republicans took a hard stance and talked about cutting spending in relation to the debt limit, but there have been no

unreasonable, concrete demands brought up as part of it. that may be avoids what would have been a worse scenario. it will be a messy series of negotiations closer to the summer. alix: what is the first test that mccarthy has to face now that he has the gavel? jack: the house rules have to be adopted. that is probably a lighter left than the fight we saw over the speakers gavel, but there are still some or moderate republican members who are skeptical about the number of concessions he made, so tonight we will see a follow up on that fight to see if the caucus is still unified and if they can manage to hold the important vote to adopt their own rules. afterwards, the must pass modes will be later on the debt limit and after that, government funding deadline is not until september 30, but the fight will start to play out and we will

see them probably struggle to get their own bills across the floor. the next thing today is adopting their own rules. guy: do we know how voters feel about what has happened with the republicans in the house? any kind of polling to suggest one way or the other? jack: it will take a little while to get clear polling. there was essentially a message of chaos and confusion, and it struggled to maintain their own unity and decide exactly what they stood for. how does that play toward future elections or how people feel broadly about the republican party? it is probably early to say. even if there are negative feelings from voters, we just had an election, so feelings can change over the next two years. it is not a great look for republicans. how does that play into future

elections? that is tough to predict. guy: jack fitzpatrick, thank you. we will certainly see some significant ripples. president biden will be meeting the mexican president later on today. the leaders are set to discuss rising migration tensions, the issue of drug smuggling. a big week last week for mexican authorities. let's go to mexico city, annmarie hordern already on the ground for us. is this going to be a positive meeting? is this going to deliver results? clearly there is pressure for the president going into the meeting with relations to migration and cross-border drug smuggling and fentanyl. >> there already were some wins going into the meeting. we had the president announced a new plan about parole and

migrants coming from four distinct countries. if they do not sign up with the plan three mobile app, the united states will be releasing, then they would not be allowed to cross on the u.s.-mexico border. mexican officials signed on to that agreement. for the u.s., that was one win. then getting the son of el chapo, which the u.s. has put pressure on mexican authorities. they allege he is a huge trafficker when it comes to fentanyl. since august, u.s. border officials seized 20,000 pounds of fentanyl, a huge issue across the united states, especially for young americans. this is something pointing to optimism potentially when it comes to relations here. the other big thing is trade and a big one for the united states is energy policy. alix: where are the harder wins?

>> that is going to be one. we heard jake sullivan saying energy policy is on the agenda. there were other officials trying to downplay that because this is going to be aware maybe it will be a tougher negotiation where they do not exactly see i tie and they do not. the united states senate put out a report over the summer that mexico has protectionism when it comes to their state-controlled oil company and electricity company. what you're going to see from canada and the united states is they are going to potentially seek arbitrage or it could lead to tariffs on these companies. that would go to american companies losing this money. what the u.s. and canada say is they are not abiding by the trade agreement. justin trudeau talked about the fact that when idea is to talk to mexico about the fact that if they were to come more in line when it comes to energy policy there would be more foreign

investment in mexico, maybe a carrot and stick approach. guy: to what extent will this be a positive discussion as we see u.s. companies encouraged to bring production back from asia and the rest of the world? mexico has to be part of the narrative. >> mexico has an export bonanza into america and they want american companies to look for components in mexico instead of looking to china for other markets in the asia-pacific. this is where they can win. it is just the energy policy that is critical and difficult to hammer out. what they want and what they want to present to president biden, they will have a bilateral meeting this afternoon , that he wants to offer a place for u.s. companies so they can get all the components they need for the semi conductor industry.

this is something the biden administration has wanted to expand in terms of domestic semi conductor manufacturing. alix: thank you. good luck. i know it is hard on the ground there. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: u.s. stocks kicking off the week on a strong leg, the s&p up 1.4%. >> this is potentially a good sign for the year. this is the santa claus rally and then another few days up 3.3 percent. when you put these indicators together, strategists say it could be positive. one that would really make for a big win is of january is higher. typically the average gain back to the great depression is about 20%, so maybe this will be a big year for stocks.

one driver is the dollar is down . something abortive for the dollar index, it is not so far behind. it is not official yet, but probably tomorrow. the bloomberg dollar index even more so, but when the dollar is down, that helps risk assets denominated in the dollar and the commodity space. you can to -- take a look at oil and even bitcoin helped out. here, look at this. we have emerging markets. when was the last time you talked about a global market -- i guess the german dax was at the end of last year. guy: we will watch for the rest of the day president biden and m low meeting in mexico city at

5:00 p.m. new york time. jeffrey's earnings after the bell, results may be giving an insight into what banks will be delivering this week. alix: balance of power is up next with a congressman from texas. this is bloomberg. ♪ of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more. these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter,

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>> it is now my solemn responsibility to hand over the people's gavel to a son of bakersfield, a former small business owner, a proud product of a fire fighters household. the gentleman from the great state of california, and the next speaker of the 100 18th congress, kevin mccarthy. >> this moment calls for restoring trust within our country and with each other. in that spirit, i will work with anyone and everyone