welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur and today i am in guyana, south america, a country of some 800,000 people which right now can claim to have the fastest growing economy in the world. the reason — oil, vast reserves of the stuff located offshore. my guest today is guyana's president, irfaan ali. his country's new—found oil riches have stoked tensions with neighbouring venezuela. they've also raised questions about this country's vulnerability to climate change. so is oil really a blessing or a curse?

president irfaan ali welcome to hardtalk. thank you. mr president, you lead a country which by many measures, has the fastest growing economy in the world. it is down to you to ensure that this massive windfall your country has is used wisely and fairly. do you feel the pressure? i don't think it's a pressure. it definitely is a challenge, but it is an opportunity. and to understand this growth and what it means for our country, i think you have to have an appreciation also from where we came and the type of difficulties we've overcome as a country to be where we are today. and that gives you an understanding as to the starting point.

and the starting point for guyana has never been oil and gas. we are a country that came through a very painful past, 28 years of dictatorship. we had democracy reinstalled in 1992, and then from then we had, we were the second poorest country in the hemisphere. 0ur debt to gdp ratio was insanely high. we are using $0.98 on every dollar to repay foreign debt. without oil and gas, we managed to bring that down to $0.05 on every dollar in the repayment of foreign debt. and then, of course, we had challenges in the last elections when the last government, after losing the elections and losing a no confidence motion, took some time. it took some time to get them to accept the results and to have democracy maintain its position. yeah, and that actually

for a while looked like it was going to be deeply problematic. there is a fragility to politics here, which we will discuss in a moment. but just to stick with this idea of the unbelievable transformation in your economy, in terms of your gdp, it's rising exponentially. 60% the year before last, 30% last year. no other country in the world is experiencing this. and itjust seems to me that oil and gas and the revenues you're getting could overwhelm guyana. well, i don't think it can overwhelm guyana. what this new wealth is allowing us to do is to create a country that is competitive in all the areas that we have potential in. so for example, guyana has always been rich in natural resources. we have a lot of raw materials, we have tremendous arable lands and fresh water. we have never been able to be competitive for a number of reasons. the country lacked the infrastructure. now we are fixing the infrastructure that is opening up new lands, new lands for housing, new lands for agriculture,

integrating more guyana with northern brazil. so we are building a new highway to integrate northern brazil. this gives us the possibility of developing a deepwater port, so they build out of the country from an infrastructure standpoint, a social standpoint, and importantly, building a health care and education system that is second to none is what is important for us. now, all of these investments are also critical for us to bring back the huge diaspora that migrated during the period of dictatorship. all of those big ambitions you have depend on stability. and one of the problems you've got right now is that your enormous new wealth has stirred resentment in your neighbour venezuela, which has for long seen a territory, essequibo, which is two thirds of your landmass, as rightfully theirs. and nicolas maduro, president of venezuela, is now saying

he will take that land. this land, guyana, was settled in 1899. 0ur boundaries were settled. venezuela participated in a settlement of the boundaries. the venezuelans say that was a colonial agreement, illegitimate, and it is indeed true to say that right now the international court ofjustice is considering the legitimacy of venezuela's claim. no, no, no, no. what, what, what. .. i'll come to what the icj is considering. in 1899, venezuela accepted the boundaries. the country, venezuela, accepted the boundaries. they even enacted local laws that accepted the boundaries. they participated with guyana and brazil in establishing the tri, the tri marker point, in setting out the poles with the surveyors and the boundary. so venezuela participated fully. when we were about to become independent, they raised a controversy.

that controversy that they raise is what is before the icj. with the greatest respect, we could spend the next hour talking about the international court ofjustice and the case but i don't want to do that. i just want to talk about practical realities. the reality is that maduro organised a referendum last year in venezuela, which overwhelmingly backed the idea that venezuela should reincorporate, or incorporate, as you would put it, this territory into the venezuelan state. if that were to happen, you would lose your rights to drill and produce oil and gas offshore off the coast of essequibo. well, first of all, we will not allow that to happen. and that is why we, we are before the icj, because we believe in the international rule of law. we are a peaceful country, we are a democratic country, we believe in regional stability and we are before the icj. sure, but with the greatest respect, you also a country with a military and security force of, what, 4,000 men at best. venezuela can call upon 150,000. i'm coming to that.

so, but before that, i must establish the point that our first line of defence has always been diplomacy, and we respect the international law and the outcome of the court, the icj. however, we recognise that we are dealing with a neighbour that is aggressive, that has made certain threats and we are investing in our military, we're investing in the technology of our military, we're investing in infrastructure. but more than that, we have aligned ourselves with countries and a region that is on the side of guyana. the caricom as a region has issued a statement in support of guya na's sovereignty. the us has issued a statement in support of guyana's sovereignty. the uk has issued a statement in support of guyana's sovereignty. france has issued a statement in support of guyana's sovereignty, canada. so we are working on the basis of an international coalition that

would not allow this region to be destabilised by any action by venezuela, to overrun our territorial integrity or our borders. have you seen the satellite imagery which shows that armoured vehicles have gathered close to the border with essequibo on the venezuelan side, that they have armed coastal vessels again gathered close to your waters? well, what i'm saying is that we have made it very clear that if there is any breach in our territorial space, if there is any action by anyone to destabilise our country and to invade in any way, shape or form, that we will call upon every force and every friend to help us and to work with us to protect our territorial integrity. let's talk about a different aspect of the oil and gas bonanza. your relationship with the key oil corporation, which undertook the exploration and undertakes much

of the production, that is exxon. they've been here from the very beginning. yes. why did guyana give exxon such an extraordinarily sweet deal, which gives them an unprecedented amount of economic gain from their work here? well, first of all, this agreement was made under the last government. and you have not changed it, mr president. yes. no, and i'm coming to that. because there is something called sanctity of contract. what message are we going to send to international investors if you have a contract and then you just change the contract? when exxon came to guyana to explore for oil, they came to explore for oil. there was no... no—one said oil is here. they invested, they explored for oil.

after they would have completed the exploration, they found oil. after they found oil, there is a production sharing agreement that was signed by the last government. an agreement that was signed by the last government. you only get, if i may say so, and of course... no, no. you only get 2% royalties. it's a 50% profit share after cost recovery. and the cost recovery, as i understand it, is going into the many billions of dollars already. ie, exxon is basically saying, "we're not going to give you "much of a share of this, because think about "the vast expense we have had developing these oil fields." no, no, i think, i think that's totally a misconception. first of all, i'm agreeing with you that it was a bad deal. we have said this publicly, but we cannot move from a bad deal to a situation where you unilaterally change a contract. simple question, is guyana being exploited right now by exxon? i'll come to that question. simple question. i wouldn't say that we are being exploited by exxon. we signed an agreement as a country with exxon. we cannot unilaterally change that agreement. what we committed ourselves to do

as the new government is to ensure that no new psc would have those similar terms. and we've already changed the psc to more, to be more balanced in terms of giving the country the best possible revenue, but more importantly in ensuring that we don't also create a situation where investment in the sector is curtailed because of the psc. but mr president, ijust want to be very straight with you. we're sitting here together, the two of us, in a luxury hotel in georgetown. and outside this door there is a fancy conference expo in which many corporate leaders from big oil around the world are sniffing around the opportunities in your country. and at the very same time, we have a report from global witness, the anti—corruption people, saying that if a deal had been done with the more usual royalty and cost agreements like we've seen in other parts of the world, then guyana would stand to gain

another $50 billion from your oil and gas reserves — money you are not going to get. how can you tell the people of your own country, many of them living in poverty, that this deal that you are currently operating under to get the oil and gas out of the ground is a good dealfor them? did i say it's a good deal? i said that the deal was heavily skewed to exxon. we have said this publicly. you're not getting it. we have said that the deal was heavily skewed to exxon, but we cannot unilaterally change the agreement that the last government signed. why not? that will. .. no, no. that will send a t... it's like you asking me. it's like i asking you, you agree that slavery was bad and the greatest indignity to humankind? why not pay reparation? why not value reparation and pay reparation today? the tens of billions of dollars that, that... but mr president, you don't allow slavery to continue just

because there were certain contracts that were signed. you as a politician have made a great noise about demanding, for example, reparations for slavery from the united kingdom. yes. and yet here we are in a new era for an independent guyana, where you're saying to me, "you know what, it's true. "we are being exploited, the extractive industries "are exploiting our people." and you just sit here and you take it. you, you are, you are placing words that i have not said. i have not said that we're being exploited. i have said that a contract signed by the last government, the contract that was signed by the last government was heavily skewed to the investor. and we have said that and i've said to you that as a new government we cannot unilaterally change that contract. it's notjust, if i may say so, it's not just about the finances, the royalties, the expenses that exxon demands. it's also about things like insurance.

there was an extraordinary case last year in the guyanan courts where the court decided that your own environmental protection agency and exxon had failed to provide the necessary guarantees that any oil spill would, in the end, be fully paid for in terms of clean—up, by exxon�*s parent company. we have said and what we are doing, what are we doing to address these issues? right now, we are drafting, redrafting environmental laws to take care of this. soon we will have in... you haven't taken care of it. even though the drilling is taking place every single day. if there was a massive oilspill tomorrow, can you tell your own people that guyana and indeed the rest of the caribbean would be fully recompensed by exxon? what i can say is that there are systems in place in the operations of... operations of exxon, to take care of this. there are systems in place.

let's take a big—picture look at what's going on here. over the next decade, two decades, it is expected that there will be $150 billion worth of oil and gas extracted off your coast. it's an extraordinary figure, but think of it in practical terms. that means, according to many experts, more than two billion tons of carbon emissions will come from your seabed, from those reserves, and be released into the atmosphere. i don't know if you as a head of state went to the cop in dubai... let me stop you right there. do you know that guyana has a forest, forever, that is the size of england and scotland combined? a forest that stores 19.5 gigatonnes of carbon. a forest that we have kept alive, a forest that we have kept alive... does that give you the right? does that give you the right

to release all of this carbon? does that give you the right to lecture us on climate change? i am going to lecture you on climate change, because we have kept this forest alive that stores 19.5 gigatons of carbon that you enjoy, that the world enjoy, that you don't pay us for, that you don't value. that you don't see a value in, that the people of guyana has kept alive. guess what? we have the lowest deforestation rate in the world. and guess what? even with our greatest exploration of the oil and gas resource we have now, we will still be net zero. guyana will still be net zero. with all our exploration, still be net zero. a couple... no, no, no. powerful, powerful words, mr president. i am not completed as yet. i am not finished as yet. i am just not finished as yet because this is a hypocrisy that exists in the world. the world in the last 50 years has lost 65% of all its biodiversity. we have kept our biodiversity. are you valuing it? are you ready to pay for it?

when is the developed world going to pay for it? or are you in the pockets, are you in the pockets of those who have damaged the environment? are you in the pockets? are you and your system in the pockets of those who destroy the environment through the industrial revolution and now lecturing us? are you in their pockets? are you paid by them? all right, mr president. there is no hypocrisy in our position. the centre for international environmental law has described the oil and gas production in guyana as turning your country from, as you rightly put it, a carbon sink into a potential, quote, "carbon bomb". now, you may say you have every right to exploit that oil... that is ridiculous. we, even with our, even with exploring and production of all our resources, we are going to still be carbon neutral. we are still going to be carbon neutral. let me quote to you greenpeace, who say quite simply, to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and you know that your own country is one of the most vulnerable to climate

change because most, most of your population lives below sea level. and we have paid. guess what? we have paid for the mitigation. we have paid for the adaptation. we are the ones who have to find revenue. no, no, no. i want to make a point. i haven't finished telling you what greenpeace say. yes, but let me tell you... greenpeace say we need to keep the majority of the world's remaining fossilfuels in the ground. greenpeace can say... greenpeace and you can say that. but we need to get resources, and the developing world, we need to get resources to build the sea defences. we need to get sea defences to build a drainage and irrigation system. you just said that we are six feet below sea level. who is going to pay for the infrastructure? for the drainage and irrigation? who is going to pay for the development and advancement of our country? are you going to pay? it's not coming from anywhere. it's not coming from greenpeace or anyone else. look at the adaptation budget that is required for the developing world. where is the money coming from?

isn't there a cynicism here in georgetown best expressed by your vice president, who said recently, "because there is this climate change "imperative to decarbonise, our policy "is to get as much oil out of "the ground as quickly as possible." now, he said, "that's harsh for those who think "that you should be "environmentally sound, but that is the reality "of it." those were very honest words from your vice president, and that is what we are, honest. we are practical. so you're rushing to get oil out before any deal is done, to quote dubai cop, to transition away from oil and gas. you can say we are rushing, but we are very practical. we have this natural resource and we are going to aggressively pursue this natural resource, because we have to develop our country. we are committed to development of this region. we have to create the opportunity for our people because no—one is bringing that for us. you, no—one is bringing that for us. no—one is paying our agenda. just... no—one is paying...

a final thought about what this means inside your own country. earlier on, i referred to the fact that 40% of the guyanese population currently still lives in poverty. and according to usaid from a recent report, guyana's political instability, which we also referred to, raises concerns that the country is unprepared for its new—found wealth. the tremendous influx of money opens many avenues for corruption. how do you as president, ensure that that doesn't happen? so when we came into government, we said that there are a number of things that we must do. first of all, there must be an...an arm's length relationship with the oil revenue. so first, the minister of finance has to declare all the revenue that comes into the system. if he does not declare that within 30 days, there's a ten—year mandatoryjail term for the minister of finance. secondly, any revenue that is spent from oil and gas must pass through the budgetary process. so it has to go

through the parliament. that has to be debated in the parliament. it then comes into the system. it is then audited by the auditor general at the end of what it was intended for. and then of course, the investment decision is made by a committee that is arm's length away, an independent committee that is arm's length away from the government. yeah. just a final thought on the politics. you describe the tensions around the 2020 election. it was hotly disputed. i think it's fair to say that there's a clear sort of ethnic element to the politics of guyana. your party is predominantly indo—guyanese, the opposition... we're the only national party. well, that's what you say. but nonetheless... when you go on the ground, and i invite you to our congress, you will see the representation of party. i referred to the opposition leader, aubrey norton, from the opposition national congress. so now you're saying that in the words of the opposition leader... no, i want to pursue the words he recently said, where he said that given everything that your government is doing with the oil money,

to quote him, "a one—party state "is emerging in guyana." there are fears that the money you have access to is entrenching your political supremacy. well, well, first of all, let me address an issue. you have to give me a few moments. the ethnic division of this country was instigated by external forces. you are aware of this? it was instigated by external forces. we have to accept that. this is part of your legacy. part of your legacy is this — that you divided the people. we have been working aggressively on bringing back the people together. my agenda is a one—guyana agenda, and i want to see all of guyana prosper, and prosperity comes to every single home. so our political party is a national political party, and to win the elections, you have to win more than 50% of the vote. there is no one ethnic group that is 50% in this country. if you look at the ethnic breakdown of the country, for a political party to win

the elections, and we are one political party, we have to win from all ethnic groups. we have to win from all segments. so we are pursuing a political strategy that brings our people together, that unify our people, and that works towards bringing prosperity to every single home. that is a strategy that we are pursuing, and that is the only strategy we are interested in. a final thought, because we're almost out of time. and it comes from frederick collins, who's the director of transparency international in guyana. and it's a, in a sense, it's the reworking of an old idea, cos he says oil can still end up being more of a curse than a blessing to the guyanese people. are you sure that that won't happen? we intend for it not only to be a blessing, but for it to be an important tool in the transformation of our society, in the building of a prosperous guyana and a sustainable guyana. for us, this revenue, this stream of revenue

offers us the opportunity to diversify our economy and to create a country that can finally fulfil all of its potential. but it's one heck of a responsibility — on you. i'm ready to take that responsibility and to fulfil that responsibility, more importantly. president irfaan ali, thanks... great being here. hello there. let's take a brief look now at the weather for the week ahead. so it was wet and very windy on thursday with bands of squally showers, longer spells of rain tracking northwards. and some of this fell as snow to low level,

settling for a while across parts of northern ireland. but it will be turning warmer as we head through the easter bank holiday weekend. temperatures climbing to above the seasonal average. a lot of dry weather around, but do watch out for the possibility of some heavy showers, particularly in the north and the west. longer spells of rain on bank holiday monday and it's all tied in with this area of low pressure out towards the west. it's still there on good friday and there will be more showers on and off throughout the day. but watch out for some icy stretches first thing across northern ireland. mist and fog, too with the clear skies through the night, that rain will be clearing away from the western isles. sunny spells and showers across pretty much the whole of the uk. some of the showers with hail, they could be heavy and thundery in nature, but more sunshine, fewer showers than on thursday. it's feeling warmer, but it's still windy across england and wales. now, as we head through friday and into saturday, the low drifts away to the west. there's another area of low pressurejust spinning up from the near continent, and that could bring quite a bit of cloud to parts of east anglia and south east england, maybe as we head through saturday morning.

but a lot of sunshine out there and lots of dry weather, too. the focus for the showers will tend to be towards the north and the west, so across northern ireland and scotland. you'll notice that the temperatures are higher to 11 to 15 degrees celsius. and if you just take a look at the mild air marked in yellow, that's spreading up through on the south—westerly winds, then it's set to stick around again into sunday. but it will be turning a bit cooler by the time we get to monday. now, don't forget that we lose an hour's sleep with the clocks springing forward on saturday night into sunday. sunday, again, a lot of dry weather around, some sunshine, but watch out for some more heavy showers developing, especially towards the north and the west. temperatures once again between 12 and 15 degrees celsius for the vast majority, which is above the seasonal average. but as we head into bank holiday monday, this area of low pressure could well spin up from the near continent and maybe bring us some more further outbreaks of rain, particularly across parts of england and wales as we head through the morning, eventually tracking a little further northwards.

so we start to draw more of an easterly wind as well. so towards eastern coastal areas it's always going to feel a little cooler and there's a dip in temperature pretty much across the board as well. so not quite so warm, not quite as much sunshine and dry weather as we head through easter monday and then into tuesday. again, we're in the course of the winter, fairly light, but we're still drawing in a northeasterly and that is going to bring us some colder feeling air. there'll be a lot of cloud around again, some sunshine perhaps across england and wales. but we're keeping an eye on this area of rain that could start to affect the south coast, pushing northwards as we head through the afternoon. temperatures peaking between eight and 1a degrees celsius will hang onto the milder airfor a little longer towards the south, but it will turn cold and frosty by night, perhaps further north. and then as we head through wednesday and thursday, we're back to these low pressure systems moving in from the atlantic. so there will be more spells of wet and windy weather to come with temperatures round about the average for the time of year.

here's the temperature outlook for our capital cities. then as we head through the rest of the week, approaching next weekend, it's going to be wet and windy at times. there'll also be some sunny spells, temperatures generally between 11 and 15 degrees. bye— bye.

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