to encourage you to slow down and have a chat. but will it catch on? hello there. i am mark lobel and we begin here in the uk where today we'll get the cpi figure for february. investors have since increased bets that interest rates will fall in june. inflation remained unchanged at 4% last month forjanuary. that surprised experts who had expected a rise in energy bills to push prices up at a faster rate. but falls in prices for food items such as crackers, cake and crisps helped offset the rise in electricity and gas costs. keeping overall annual inflation unchanged from december. joining me now is kallum pickering, senior economist, berenberg.

are you expecting inflation to slow in february? yes, we should get quite a significant slowdown, probably — welcome in the mid—30s, between 3.2 and 3.5 present, it will be good news down from four core inflation which is what the bank of england is about amidships at energy, it will probably come in around four there will still be a big difference between this but there will be significant progress. there will be significant progress-_ there will be significant rouress. ~ ., , progress. do you think anything could bring _ progress. do you think anything could bring forward _ progress. do you think anything could bring forward the - progress. do you think anything could bring forward the bank. progress. do you think anything could bring forward the bank of| could bring forward the bank of england's decision to cut interest rates because you think it's unlikely, partly because it looks as if, actually, the economy is starting to grow at the start of the year, so some of the weakness we saw last year there was a technical recession in the second half of last year, deemed to have dissipated. what the bank of england will probably wait for is inflation to be a little above the 2%, with confidence it falls below

2%, so that will probably happen around june, the market is right to expect a car engine. i'm a little ahead of the market, i think 25 interest rate cuts this year when the market thinks we should be at around three. it matters because of their weekly shop and mortgages. it looks like this year at least good news is on the way. this year at least good news is on the way-— this year at least good news is onthewa. , ,., on the way. good news is on the wa . it on the way. good news is on the way- it looks _ on the way. good news is on the way. it looks as _ on the way. good news is on the way. it looks as though - on the way. good news is on the way. it looks as though the - way. it looks as though the economy is at the start of what we would describe as a cyclical upswing, a momentum phase of the recovery, so it will be a slow start in quarter one by by the time we get to quarter four people should expect to see much more normal interest rates, robert lee around 4% on interest rates by the end of the year, it is by 0.25 at the moment, inflation will be close to 2%, the world should start to 2%, the world should start to look more familiar after a few unusual years.— to look more familiar after a few unusual years. few unusualyears. some people have described _ few unusualyears. some people have described this _ few unusualyears. some people have described this crisis - few unusualyears. some people have described this crisis as - have described this crisis as an immaculate dissimulation, normally when inflation rises like this we see job losses and we have not seen at this time around. what lessons can be

learned from what has happened here and the actions that central banks have taken? i would emphasise that we were heading into a more normal interest rate inflationary environment before covid, but it would have happened very gradually, this process may have taken ten years to get to a normal interest rates in the normal rate of inflation, inflation was very low after the global financial crisis with russia's invasion of ukraine, central banks have had to accelerate the process of normalisation and oversize normalisation and oversize normalisation because we have returned to a normal state after a very low interest rate environment that we haven't had this recession, it is not as though we have aggressively raised interest rates from an already high level and because the job losses you mentioned. kallum pickering, fascinating stuff, thanks forjoining us. also, later today global markets will be watching whether the us central bank continues to hold interest rates at between 5.25% and 5.5%. the federal reserve is contending with inflation that rose slightly to 3.2% in february. but how are borrowing costs affecting businesses

in the world's largest economy? the bbc�*s michelle fleury sent this report. cutting back, americans seem to be spending less on the things they used to have to have, like a visit to the hairdresser. it's putting a strain on small business owner diane, who runs the simply comey beautiful salon in harlem.— the simply comey beautiful salon in harlem. last what it was very _ salon in harlem. last what it was very dismal, _ salon in harlem. last what it was very dismal, very, - salon in harlem. last what it was very dismal, very, very l was very dismal, very, very dismal. it was the worst i've seenin dismal. it was the worst i've seen in a long, long time. just when she _ seen in a long, long time. just when she thought _ seen in a long, long time. just when she thought she would have to close the doors were good business picked up. she has just hired two new stylus. this just hired two new stylus. as we just hired two new stylus. s we started just hired two new stylus. is we started picking up, the week after new year's, and i do believe, you know, the talk of interest rates going down and inflation going down and then just everyone wanting to get back out there. 50

just everyone wanting to get back out there.— back out there. so after the federal reserve's _ back out there. so after the | federal reserve's aggressive campaign to tame inflation, many are now eagerly awaiting the fed's first rate cut to keep the economy humming. including on the campaign trail. the fed is a multiple interest rate cuts this year. those moves could boost the economy in the to november's residential election. but with the cost of services spiking, jerome powell and his fellow policymakers are likely to keep rates unchanged for a fifth straight time. they want more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target. the risk is that the economy's current strength won't last. lie current strength won't last. us economy is strong, inflation is coming back down towards the fed's 2% target, but the longer they keep their foot rest on they keep their foot rest on the break the more likely something goes wrong. for small business is _ something goes wrong. for small business is preparing _ something goes wrong. for small business is preparing for - something goes wrong. for small business is preparing for what - business is preparing for what they hope will be another surge in demand, the fed's first cutting can't come soon enough. michelle fleury, bbc news, new york. live now to dan kemp,

chief research and investment officer, morningstar. it's the question on everybody�*s lips. dan, tell us, when will the central bank start cutting rates? well, mark, hello. yes, it is the question on everyone's lips. in the short answer is it's very likely to be today. the market's price index expectation for interest—rate cuts, you can go see what is expected, and really at the moment people are expecting about three interest—rate cuts before the end of the year. they are not expecting it today. it is unlikely to start now and if inflation continues to be sticky, which is what we saw last week, then the fed is likely to delay. so unlikely to be any surprises today, but people will be really eagerly watching the press conference thatjerome powell will be that jerome powell will be giving thatjerome powell will be giving later on to try to get that sense of when those cuts

may start to happen. everyone is waiting for this next leg in the story when interest rates started coming down. i thought ou said started coming down. i thought you said that — started coming down. i thought you said that they _ started coming down. i thought you said that they would - started coming down. i thought you said that they would start l you said that they would start cutting rates today, nearly fell off my chair, maybe it was a glitch in the audio all my bad hearing. what expecting them to say what people looking out for in terms of the running commentary they give?- commentary they give? well, es, no commentary they give? well, yes. no cuts _ commentary they give? well, yes, no cuts today, _ commentary they give? well, yes, no cuts today, think - commentary they give? well, yes, no cuts today, think that is unlikely. i think when people are looking at the language they are going to want to try to understand whether the fed is getting ready to cut, whether they are confident that inflation is on this downward path or whether it looks stark a little bit above where their targets are. remember, from an investment perspective, actually slayer —— slightly higher interest rates are not a bad thing. it means you are earning greater money on your savings so that the savings rate is above

inflation, that is a good or a loss of savers, and equally it with some discipline on companies. interest rates comp —— convey discipline because they force people to think about how they are using money. so although people like to see interest rates come down, in reality slightly higher interest rates may be good for long—term investors. gill interest rates may be good for long-term investors. all right, dan kemp. — long-term investors. all right, dan kemp. we _ long-term investors. all right, dan kemp, we believe - long-term investors. all right, dan kemp, we believe it- long-term investors. all right, | dan kemp, we believe it there. thanks very much. chinese foreign minister wang yi is meeting with his australian counterpart. it's his first official visit in seven years. he says china—australia relations are on the right track and that they must not hesitate, deviate, or turn back. that is because relations have been tense between the two nations, after a series of trade tiffs over agricultural products and wine. despite that, china remains australia's largest trading partner, with two—way trade rising i2% to over $316 billion last year. also just last week, beijing proposed lifting all tariffs on australian wine, which could end a three—year long dispute.

live now to dr alex bristow, senior analyst in the professional development centre of australian strategic policy institute. dr alex, this is an important trip based on what more could be traded between the two — namely wine, lobster, and beef. yes, those are the commodities that are still under effectively an embargo from china, so this is a series of unilateral actions under started putting on australia in the year 2020, largely in punishment for australia's speaking out against jane's conduct in places like the south china sea, calling for an independent covid enquiry, and some national security measures that australia put in place, such as banning china on the sg such as banning china on the 56 network and high risk offenders from the core of the sg network and high risk offenders from the core of the 56 network here like huawei. china froze to dramatic content for a

couple of years, all high—level meeting's wrath, and they place a series of unilateral trade restrictions and it was about 20 billion worth in trade, most of that has been lifted off, that happened earlier on in the new government, cole is a more significant commodity, they are already trading as again from once the left, the most significant ones are the ones you just mentioned that an wine is highly expected, that is about 1.5 billion australian dollars market when it was at its peak, there is an expectation that china will have a final decision to release that embargo at the end of this month.— of this month. how do they navigate — of this month. how do they navigate the _ of this month. how do they navigate the tricky - of this month. how do they navigate the tricky waters, | of this month. how do they . navigate the tricky waters, you mentioned all the tensions they are trying to overcome or they have overcome, but there are still global defence agreements that would anger the chinese that would anger the chinese that the australians are involved in.— that the australians are involved in. , , . ., involved in. they very much to anuer involved in. they very much to anger the _ involved in. they very much to anger the chinese _ involved in. they very much to anger the chinese and - involved in. they very much to anger the chinese and i - involved in. they very much to anger the chinese and i am . involved in. they very much to i anger the chinese and i am sure that the aukus security arrangement would have angered wang yi when he was meeting

penny wong and the prime minister anthony albanese. it is interesting timing because the british foreign and defence ministers, david cameron and grant shapps, will be arriving in australia tomorrow, they will be meeting the prime minister as well, they will be having meetings with their counterparts on friday and i think we will see further announcements around the orgasmic agreement, i think they will be an announcement regarding the new nuclear—powered submarines, timing is interesting, i have had a chance to talk to the chinese ministry about concerns they have. wang yi has made it quite clear that he wants australia to be independent in its foreign policy, we need one pick what he means by that, i think he means you need to move away from the us and security partners we have a problem with like japan and the partners we have a problem with likejapan and the uk and you need to be a bit closer to china. i think although there is improvement in trading relations, although they will be able to buy australia muniganeen china fairly soon, this can always be reversed, there is always the emphasis to that of australia gets too far

out of line or two vocal again, if it goes too far in its alliance with the us that they could always come up with some reasons to put the directions back on and punish australia. are the chinese also playing politics mystically in australia with the current policy one of stabilisation by china trying to encourage a different direction from the government?— different direction from the government? , ., ., government? yes. china has made it cuite government? yes. china has made it quite clear _ government? yes. china has made it quite clear including _ government? yes. china has made it quite clear including wang - it quite clear including wang yi in his visit that they want to go ahead —— beyond stabilisation, that is the term the labor government has used. they have said china and australia will not hoist the eye to eye on everything, that's natural, but we need to be able to have a dialogue. that is where labor wants to leave it, they do not want to go further than that. china says we can do better than that, we have more in common, there is an historic right between us, we don't have any aggressive ambitions on the rest of the region, that is china's lane, therefore we should be able to build on this relationship. while he is here wang yi is seen not only the current prime minister, anthony

albanese and his foreign minister counterpart penny wong, is also seeing former prime minister paul keating who was in the 19905 has been a vocal and quite vociferou5 critic of the current labor government's policies, even though he is from the party himself, you think that it was to america, is also a huge critic of the orgasmic agreement and a huge critic of britain's role in this region, he thinks au5tralia cannot rely on written. idr he thinks australia cannot rely on written-— on written. dr alex bristow, thanks very _ on written. dr alex bristow, thanks very much. -- - on written. dr alex bristow, i thanks very much. -- britain. thanks very much. —— britain. thank you. moving on to the us, where its top aviation regulator has some 5harp words for boeing on the heels of a recent visit to the plane maker's facilitie5. 0ur north america bu5ine55 correspondent erin delmore has more from new york. federal aviation administration chief michael whitaker say5 federal aviation administration chief michael whitaker says it is time boeing focu5 le55 is time boeing focu5 less on reduction and more on safety and quality where, mr whitaker 5ay5, and quality where, mr whitaker says, bowing's priorities have not been. he visited bowing's facilitie5 recently and spoke

about his impressions and findings in an interview with nbc nightly new5 stop specifically, he nbc nightly news stop specifically, he called out issues around the safetyculture at boeing. his comments come as boeing remains under the microscope for federal aviation officials, lawmakers, business leaders, and travellers. that's on the heels of a january incident involving a door plug blowing off an alaska airlines jet midflight and sparing an emergency landing. a report by the national transportation safety board found that the bolts that were intended to hold the door plug in place once where they needed to be when the plane left bowing's facility. since then, bowing's safety practices have remained in the spotlight. boeing said in a statement to the bbc that it is taking "significant action to strengthen safety and quality". the firm added that it is "focused on demonstrating change and building trust one aeroplane at a time". around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.

welcome back. after seven months of wrangling over anti—trust concerns, the european commission has unconditionally approved cisco's $28 billion deal with splunk. cisco first announced plans of buying splunk to expand its footprint in ai—enabled cybersecurity. the deal is expected to give a welcome boost to cisco's move into ai. cisco is one of the largest technology companies in the world, with over $51 billion in revenue. chuck robbins is the chairman and ceo of cisco systems, he spoke to my colleague tadhg enright earlier. in its simplest form, what is going to allow us to do is provide real—time insights to all of our customers so that they can detect cyber security threats in real—time. as we

know, the bad actors all around the world, as they get their hands on al and they are able to actually be more effect of with their cyber—attack strategies we, as an industry, have to enable our customers to be able to respond faster and this splunk acquisition is at the heart of allowing us to do that for our customers.- that for our customers. does that for our customers. does that suggest _ that for our customers. does that suggest that _ that for our customers. does that suggest that in - that for our customers. does that suggest that in this - that for our customers. does that suggest that in this ai i that suggest that in this ai future packing risks are going to become an even greater threat. because, of course, they have been climbing for many, many years now. what ai does for the — many, many years now. what ai does for the bad _ many, many years now. what ai does for the bad actors - many, many years now. what ai does for the bad actors who - many, many years now. what ai does for the bad actors who are | does for the bad actors who are launching the cyber attacks as it allows them to operate in even greater stealth mode than they are today. it allows them to look more real to you as a user. that e—mail that is coming to you from me isn't from me or my voice speaking to you isn't me. that is what we have to figure out how to protect against, because these will appear to be very realistic interactions and that is the risk we face. it’s is the risk we face. it's already _ is the risk we face. it's already hard _ is the risk we face. it's already hard to - is the risk we face. it's already hard to keep i is the risk we face. it's already hard to keep ahead of the bad actors. does that mean

it will get even harder? is that something you are worried about? i that something you are worried about? ., , that something you are worried about? ~ , ., , ,., , about? i think is absolutely auoin to about? i think is absolutely going to get _ about? i think is absolutely going to get harder. - about? i think is absolutely going to get harder. it - about? i think is absolutely going to get harder. it has| about? i think is absolutely i going to get harder. it has got harder every yearfor the going to get harder. it has got harder every year for the last 15 years and it is our responsibility to help our customers and help society understand how to recognise these risks, blocki risks where they can, but then remediate those that they don't block and do that in real time and we have to be so much better five years from now than we are today. years from now than we are toda . , �* today. yes, ai powering the aood as today. yes, ai powering the good as well _ today. yes, ai powering the good as well as _ today. yes, ai powering the good as well as bad - today. yes, ai powering the good as well as bad actors. | and you can see that interview in full on talking business on friday 22nd march. let's get some of the day's other news now. unilever says it will spin off its ice cream business and cut 7,500 jobs worldwide as part of an extensive three—year cost—saving plan. the maker of ben &jerry�*s, wall's, and magnum brands says the move will save $870 million over the next three years. shares were up nearly 6% at one point after the news was announced.

hundreds ofjobs are at risk at ted baker. the high street fashion chain is set to be put into administration. it's parent company authentic brands group says it's in advanced discussions with several potential buyers for the brand. sales at luxury brand gucci are expected to drop 20% in the first quarter of the year according to its owner, luxury conglomerate kering. the drop is blamed on a much steeper decline than expected in the asia pacific region. joao da silva is following the story from our asia business hub in singapore. hello. what more can you tell us? ~ , ., , us? well, it is a huge sales dro, us? well, it is a huge sales drop. not— us? well, it is a huge sales drop. notjust _ us? well, it is a huge sales drop, notjust at _ us? well, it is a huge sales drop, notjust at gucci, - us? well, it is a huge sales i drop, notjust at gucci, other brands in the luxury can gumbula kering and beyond in the luxury sector have been experiencing a slowdown. there are a couple of friends at play here, one, as you rightly pointed out, is the asia—pacific region and

particularly china, which up until the pandemic was a key engine of growth for the luxury goods market. well, that ended in 2022 due to the impact of tight covid—19 lockdowns, since in the market has recovered somewhat, but growth is still far from somewhat, but growth is still farfrom pre—pandemic somewhat, but growth is still far from pre—pandemic levels. people are not spending as they used to and that, in a market where gucci gets more than a third of its sales. the other trend has to do with gucci's strategy and with more sort of global economic conditions. until recently the branch targeted a younger demographic of aspirational shoppers. that strategy worked well for years, particularly in economies like the us where pandemic stimulus checks and low interest rates gave consumers a lot of discretionary spending power, but that also has changed. impacting particularly gucci's younger buyers who are more vulnerable to economic pressures. now, gucci is in the middle of a change in strategy.

the first designs from its new creative director have been in—store since mid february and apparently they have been well received. that is a good sign, but the jury is still out on whether it means gucci will be more resilient going forward. great, thank you for that update about gucci. let's turn from gucci to the local supermarket. get ready for check out and chat. in recent years self—checkout systems have emerged as the preferred checkout option for consumers. according to recent statistics, 73% of consumers favour self—checkout systems over traditional staffed checkout lines. the dutch supermarket chain jumbo is bucking this trend. they have introduced a slow checkout lane — the chatter checkout — for lonely seniors who want to have a chat. first introduced in the dutch city of vlijmen in summer 2019, the response was so positive thatjumbo have now decided to build 200 of these lanes nationwide. live now to natalie berg,

retail analyst and founder nbk retail and co—author of amazon: how the world's most relentless retailer will continue to revolutionize commerce. natalie, is this the answer to loneliness? i natalie, is this the answer to loneliness?— loneliness? i think it is a fantastic _ loneliness? i think it is a fantastic solution. - loneliness? i think it is a fantastic solution. it - loneliness? i think it is a fantastic solution. it wasj fantastic solution. it was actually in amsterdam at a retail event a couple of weeks ago and the slow checkout lanes came up in conversation a lot, think there is a lot of excitement around them. it's worth pointing out here that althoughjumbo, the dutch although jumbo, the dutch grocer you just althoughjumbo, the dutch grocer you just mentioned, although they have been very proactive in rolling this out, it's actually starting to gain traction in other parts of the world as well. we have seen similar initiatives in canada, in germany, from tesco in scotland. so why think it's wonderful to see supermarkets around the globe really looking to normalise a slower service. i don't think this is necessarily a backlash against technology, against automation, but i think this is, as you

rightly pointed out, it is about combating loneliness, caring for our community of my being more inclusive, and, ultimately, offering customers what they want, because not everybody wants speed and efficiency. everybody wants speed and efficiency-— everybody wants speed and efficien . ., ., ., ., efficiency. natalie, how long do ou efficiency. natalie, how long do you think _ efficiency. natalie, how long do you think the _ efficiency. natalie, how long do you think the chance - efficiency. natalie, how long do you think the chance at i efficiency. natalie, how long. do you think the chance at the checkout actually last? i do you think the chance at the checkout actually last?- checkout actually last? i don't think they _ checkout actually last? i don't think they necessarily - checkout actually last? i don't think they necessarily have i checkout actually last? i don't think they necessarily have to| think they necessarily have to last a very long time, but what is worth pointing out as some people this might the only conversation they have throughout the day, so it is really a really critical service, i think, really a really critical service, ithink, and it is also worth bearing in mind that supermarkets play a pivotal role in our societies and caring for our communities, so i think is going to be particularly relevant for shoppers, potentially shoppers with dementia, disabled shoppers, those theyjust need a little bit more time at the checkout, or even those of us who just don't want to engage with all of the technology. it's great to see there is an alternative out there. it does create a different _ alternative out there. it does| create a different atmosphere

in the store. remember when they were introducing or it was they were introducing or it was the fashion to introduce coffee shops into bookstores and they can have a chat with the cashier in this one, is at the point, to distinguish this from platforms like amazon where you just order things online and there is no interaction at all? i think it is so interesting to see how the industry is moving, obviously the pandemic was a huge catalyst for digital transformation and delivery that time, you know, retailers had to invest in low touch services, they had to get shoppers in and out of stores as quickly as possible and i think generally there been this move towards more frictionless retail experiences. but i think when it comes to things like cell checkout, for example, there really is this divergence in thinking right now. you have the likes of amber zone who are going for checkout free stores where you don't even need to check out, you can literally just walk out. so they are going very big on automation

and the rest of the industry is testing those waters, they are recognising the benefits, but at the same time at the other end of the spectrum you have retailers that are also scaling back on this technology or even abandoning it altogether. we have seen that with boots supermarket in the uk where they have ripped out of the cell checkout�*s, it is interesting to see how it is moving. interesting to see how it is movinr. ~ . interesting to see how it is movin-. . ., ., interesting to see how it is movinr. ~ ., ., ., moving. will have to end our chat there. _ moving. will have to end our chat there. anyone - moving. will have to end our chat there. anyone else - moving. will have to end our. chat there. anyone else wanting a chat, head down to your local supermarket where the scheme applies. goodbye for now. hello. we are marking the spring equinox, and for some parts of the uk, wednesday will bring some spring warmth, just as tuesday did in parts of lincolnshire. 17 degrees, with some hazy sunshine in some relatively mild air. now, as we head through the next few days, we are going to start to see a change. the wind direction will change. we will get into north or northwesterly winds, and that will bring a much colderfeel, in time for the weekend, but not just yet. a mild start to wednesday, with extensive cloud cover, some mist and murk and some hill fog, and some outbreaks

of rain. now, in many locations, the rain will turn increasingly light and patchy through the day, and for some, it will brighten up. in fact, if we see some hazy sunshine in the south—east of england, temperatures could climb to 18 degrees, but parts of south—west england, wales, the midlands, eastern england, are likely to stay grey, with some bits and pieces of rain. it may brighten up a little bit across northern england, and for northern ireland and for scotland, actually, the afternoon should bring a decent amount of sunshine, feeling quite pleasant in light winds, 11 or 12 degrees. just a small chance of a shower in the north—east of scotland, and then, through wednesday night, while this window of clear skies move southwards and eastwards, that will be replaced by the end of the night across northern ireland and the western side of scotland by more cloud, more outbreaks of rain. this is our next frontal system. the winds will be strengthening, as well. it is going to be a windy day, particularly in the north—west of scotland on thursday, with outbreaks of rain pushing south—eastwards.

that rain particularly heavy and persistent over high ground in the west of scotland. further south and east, quite a lot of cloud, but where we see some sunny spells, again, it may feel warm — 17 degrees likely in the london area. but through thursday night and into friday, this cold front slips southwards and eastwards, and that will bring a change to colder conditions. a deep low, passing to the north of scotland, that will bring some really strong winds, gales likely in the far north. for the northern half of the uk, there will be showers, some heavy, some thundery and some wintry up over high ground, and for some places, temperatures will actually be dropping as the day wears on. the afternoon, for example, in glasgow, around eight celsius. we stay in that cold air for the weekend. there will be showers, some of which will be wintry over high ground, and when we factor in the strength of the winds, it will feel decidedly chilly.

good morning. welcome to breakfast with sally nugent and jon kay. 0ur headlines today. did hospital staff try to access the princess of wales's medical records? the uk's data protection watchdog says it's assessing a report of a breach of catherine's privacy. are price rises slowing down? we'll find out when the latest inflation figures

are released at seven. most households and businesses are desperate to see those prices slowing. they are expected to, but by how much and could interest rates be next? dominance in the dutch capital. three—nil up on ajax and on the brink of the champions league semi—finals in what could be a season to remember for chelsea women. every three years, the london eye gets a major paintjob. it is in the middle of that process now, lit up, looking resplendent in bbc breakfast colours this morning. for some reason, i have been given one of these. good morning, a cloudy and wet start for many which will clear for most. it will be mild but turning colder. all the details later. it's wednesday, the 20th march.