this is bbc news. we'll have the headlines and all the main news stories for you at the top of the hour as newsday continues, straight after hardtalk. welcome to hardtalk. i'm stephen sackur. as russia's war on ukraine grinds into a second year, how complete is vladimir putin's control of the home front? critics of the war risk prison, independent media outlets have been closed down, and the kremlin propaganda machine has been supercharged. but thanks to the internet,

the costs of this war cannot be entirely hidden from russian eyes. my guest is tikhon dzyadko, editor—in—chief of dozhd or tv rain, founded as an independent tv channel in moscow, now broadcasting from riga. are russians ready to question what their government tells them? tikhon dzyadko in riga, latvia, welcome to hardtalk. thank you so much for having me here. it's a great pleasure to have you on this show. now, it strikes me this past year has been one of extraordinary challenge and

disruption for you at tv rain. the reason, i guess, is simple — vladimir putin would like to see you cease to exist. how close to ceasing to exist has it come for you? well, we can say that, last march, tv rain, or dozhd, died. we were out of air for four months because, at the beginning of march, we were forced to leave the country, and most of ourjournalists left the country, and the tv station stopped operating. but then injuly, we decided to relaunch the tv station here in riga, and also we have a studio in amsterdam, because we know that millions and millions of people in russia, they are eager to get independent information, primarily about this war, but about the situation in russia as well. how do you know that?

can you reasonably measure your audience? cos, of course, right now it's an internet audience. it's via your youtube channel, if we're talking about people able to see you inside russia. so how do you know what the audience is? we know the audience of our youtube channel in russia. it's about 1k million viewers per month. we think that it's a pretty big number, but i think that potential is even bigger. i think that these polls, which are being spread by official russian sociology companies, they could not be trusted. i mean the polls about 86% supporting the war. i think the number of those who are opposing the war is bigger than 14 million of our viewers, so i think it could be more. well, polls are notoriously

difficult to do in russia, and they are of arguable meaning. but there are people who've tried to ask russians about their opinion on the war, leaving them the opportunity to say nothing if they wanted to. so it is possible in some ways to measure the hardcore support for the war, and various independent polling organisations reckon roughly two thirds of russians are still serious in their support of putin's war. are you disputing that? well, i think it's impossible to know what do russians in majority think now, because...the political regime in russia today, unfortunately, is fascist, for example. and, of course, people are afraid to say what they really think. for example, a couple of weeks ago, i think it was deutsche welle which made a vox pop

into the streets of moscow, asking people whether they support the fact that the west is sending tanks to ukraine or not. and two of these people said, yes, that they supported it, and that they supported ukraine. now they are being prosecuted by russian police. so i think the polls in the time of repressions could not be trusted at all. but it doesn't mean that everyone opposes the war. of course not. but it means that we don't know the reality. yeah. given the repression that you've just described and the fact that to criticise the war can lead to years, ten years of imprisonment, is it actually going to be dangerous now for russians to be seen to be viewing tv rain, dozhd, online on youtube? do you worry about that?

frankly, no, because youtube is not blocked in russia, and people are watching dozhd, tv rain, not even with vpn services, so it's open. but what is not safe, unfortunately, is to give comments to tv rain. we know three or four examples when people were fined for so—called discrediting russian army after their comments on tv rain. you've said in the past that you believe there are, as you put it, three different russias when it comes to opinion about this war. i'm interested in the third. i mean, it's clear what the first two are — there are those russians, and we've already discussed it, who are absolutely strong in their support of putin's war and his declared war aims. there clearly are a number of russians — and we've seen over the course of the war thousands of them — expressing dissent, and 20,000

and more have actually been arrested for criticising the war, so we know there is an anti—warfaction, but the third grouping is the one that you call hesitant russians. now, how do you at tv rain think you can reach out and perhaps even influence the thinking of these hesitant russians? i think this group of russian society, of the russian population, is the biggest group. these are people who are in denial. who are not ready to admit that their country, our country, is committing terrible war crimes in ukraine, because if they admit it, they have to do something, but it's too dangerous to do something, so theyjust pretend that this war does not exist. and russian propaganda is also trying to tell people that this war is not about them. it's not even a war.

it's a special military operation somewhere farfrom you. our goal is to explain to each and every russian that this war is about everyone. for example, we saw it during the military draft in russia, during mobilisation, when we received 6 million new viewers who never watched tv rain before. but during the mobilisation, this war became the war about them. and we are trying to explain it to the russians, not only during the mobilization, but every day. isn't the truth, though, that the messaging you can put out on your youtube channel pales into insignificance when one considers it and compares it with the power of the russian state media machine? i'm thinking of the power of individual commentators like vladimir solovyov, who, of course, we all see, thanks to the internet,

delivering his daily diatribes to the russian people on one of the most important primetime shows that's aired across russia. he rails against what he calls the fascism coming from nato, the us, and the europeans. he says the russian motherland is under threat. he says that if nato and its forces win, then satanic forces will be unleashed that will undermine russian values. yes. russians see this every single day. isn't that where the power lies? of course, russian propaganda is very powerful, and it has been powerful over the last 20—plus years. also, it's very professional because they have a lot of money to produce these shows. but i think that... and we see it, for example, when we read the telegram channels of those who support the war, we see that some

ideas of propaganda, they are not being... ..bought by the audience because...the reality is completely different from what they are saying. if we look at how russian propaganda has been describing the so—called special military operation, at the beginning, it was a special military operation to demilitarise and de—nazification of ukraine. then russian propaganda was telling that this special military operation has to stop nato from approaching to russian borders. but then people see that finland is going tojoin nato, and that borders with nato will be even bigger. then russian propaganda tells some stories about russian values and how the west is

trying to destroy it as well. so, the idea is changing every month, and it looks like a lot of people are not buying this. is there a generational split here within russia and russian public opinion? i mean, mindfulthat, for a start, probably the audience for your youtube channel tends to the younger element of the russian demographic. sure. and there is evidence that older russians, still, many of them, buy into the state propaganda which paints the picture of a greater russia, maybe a soviet russia, which has been unfairly humiliated, and which putin is trying to restore a form of glory to. 0lder russians really feel that, don't they? absolutely. and also, i think it's not only about great russia, it's also about the time when they were younger.

they were young during soviet time. and i think psychologically, it means that they think that if they see bigger russia with ukraine and moldova and georgia, etc, etc, they would feel like they felt before, when they were young people. but of course, there is this conflict of generations in russia. russians who are younger, they don't need this war. i suppose, for ukrainians watching this, there is fundamentally a question of where culpability for this war lies. does it lie with vladimir putin, and the machinery of the kremlin and the state? or, in a deeper sense, does it lie with the russian people? it's a very... it's a very difficult question. who is responsible for this war?

of course, there are concrete people who are responsible for this war — vladimir putin, sergei shoigu, the minister of defence, sergey lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs, and other people. then, of course, we should talk about the fact that it happened in our country, and we, as russian citizens, we let things come to the point where this war became possible. but also, let's talk about how vladimir putin... just let me interrupt you for a second, if i may. yeah. i'm thinking back to the second world war, to the nazis, to this idea that many germans tried to say after the war, "we did not know," for example, "about the extermination of the jews, "of the scale of the holocaust. "we did not know." russians can't say, can they,

that they do not know about the reality of the war in ukraine, that russian forces stand accused of egregious human rights abuses, of war crimes, that systematic allegations of rape, of torture, of extrajudicial killing have been made by independent observers — russians are aware, are they not? i don't think that all russians are aware of what is actually happening there, because if you turn on russian tv, you would see the different picture from what you see on bbc or cnn, or tv rain. but you've just told me that russians have access to youtube. they don't have to have special equipment to see your channel. and, yes, maybe older russians aren't watching youtube every day, but information spreads between families, over dinners. russians surely, by now, after more than a year of war, they know. i think that, again, it's, again, a conversation about sociology.

we don't know how many russians know, and how many russians do not know. of course, now, when internet is not blocked in russia, people could get access to tv rain, for example. but for a lot of people, it's easier to watch first channel, russian state tv. of course, part of the russians, they support these terrible crimes, and they think that it's the only way of doing things. and it would be absurd to deny that there is a part of the russian population who perfectly understands what is happening in ukraine, and they support it, unfortunately. 0lesya khromeychuk is the director of the ukrainian institute here in london. she's also a novelist and writer who's written powerful work since the all—out invasion, about her own family's experience. she said this to me the other day, she said, "do i have sympathy with russians living under putin? "do i, in a sense, feel that

they can be absolved of guilt?" she says, "no, those who are ignorant and decide not "to know what the situation is in ukraine are "also making a choice. "even ignorance," she says, "is a choice, "and it can be morallyjudged." do you agree? well, i think those who support this war, those who choose not to know the truth about this war, i don't feel sympathy to them. but i do feel sympathy to tens of millions of russian citizens who do not support this war, who were protesting against putin during these 20 years of his presidency in russia. but what is also important, and what has to be said also is that, unfortunately, over the years, the west and the european union was almost fine with vladimir putin

doing terrible things in russia, and not only in russia. let's remember what happened after 2008, when russia invaded georgia — nothing happened. no sanctions were imposed after russia actually occupied 20% of georgian territory. just a thought about comparisons. in the last few months, we've seen tens and tens of thousands of iranians take to the streets of towns and cities across iran, demanding an end to the theocratic authoritarian regime in tehran. why, in russia, has it not been possible for those who do not support vladimir putin, who want a very different russia, to gather together the kind of momentum for street protests that would challenge the repressive grip of vladimir putin? because russians were protesting in 2011 and 2012,

and a lot of people were beaten by the police, and criminal cases against them were opened. then it happened in 2016, then in 2019, then in 2021, when alexei navalny returned to russia, a lot of people were... but, with respect, same in iran, same in iran. and the iranians who take to the streets today know there's a very high chance that they will be arrested. they also know there's a very significant chance they will be killed. hundreds have been killed. but fear in russia is so complete and profound... yes, yes. yes, and i don't know, i hope that this will change. but now people are too feared in russia to protest. people are sitting in their kitchens, and talk to each other, but they are not protesting in the streets. let me ask you something a little more personal to tv rain and to your own role in latvia. your credibility took

a hit in latvia when, during broadcasts, ithink late in 2022, one of your presenters appeared to be saying — and this is a quote that maybe you'll tell me is wrong — but he was quoted as saying, "we hope," speaking for tv rain, "we also helped many military personnel," meaning russian soldiers on the front, "namely by assisting them with equipment "and bare necessities on the front line." it sounded to some in latvia and other parts of europe that tv rain�*s presenters somehow were expressing sympathy for russian soldiers poorly equipped on the front line. how could that happen? well, since it was absolutely unacceptable, we fired this anchor the next day, because he said...because it was a lie. he said, "we hope" — that's not true. we do not hope that russian mobilised soldiers would get equipment on the front line. that's why, again,

the next day, we fired him. but for some in europe, it wasn't just that. it was also the fact that tv rain showed a map of russia, which appeared to include crimea as an undisputed part of russian territory. and it fed into this idea that, in the end, you guys, you liberals in russia, or indeed exiled from russia, in the end, you still have a profound nationalism, a loyalty to russia which trumps all else. do you know who else, which tv station also showed a map of russia with crimea? it was ukrainian tv station freedom. also, it was french—german tv station arte. also, it was tv station from slovakia. why am i saying this? because it was a mistake which could happen anywhere. a designer took a map from internet.

this reportage was ready too late, no—one checked it, that's how it happened. but... and this... no, i get that, tikhon. i suppose what i'm, in a sense, striving to understand is how far you can go in your outright criticism of russia right now, and still hope to reach that audience we talked about — the hesitant russians who you want to reach with your daily flow of news and information? for example, do you think you could call for ukraine, could you express a wish that ukraine win this war, that putin be entirely defeated, and still reach that hesitant portion of the russian population? of course, if we explain to this russian population that it's in its interests that putin loses the war, and that regime changes in russia,

because the life of people in russia will become worse and worse. and during this terrible year, their life is becoming worse and worse, and it will get even worse. that's what we are explaining to them, that it's in russia's interests to lose in this war, and the regime change is in russia's interests. people who call for regime change, as you havejust done with me, russians, they often face a very real threat to their lives, both inside russia and, some of them, outside russia. are you fearful right now? no. no, iam not. have you been threatened? i was threatened before i left russia. it was the third day of the war, i guess, when i was getting text

messages and calls. this year, after i left russia, i did not receive any threats. you, at tv rain, are soon going to make another move, i believe you're moving your headquarters to amsterdam, cos you've lost your formal broadcast licence in latvia, cos of some of the things that we just discussed, some of the issues with your transmissions from latvia, so you're going to amsterdam. can you imagine a time when tv rain returns to its home city, moscow, and is freely able to broadcast from moscow? i'm probably being optimistic, but i think it will happen a couple of years from now, maybe in three years, in four years. i think that putin cannot win this war. i think it's obvious that he will lose. and right after he loses, i don't see that he will be able to stay in power for long.

you think a post—putin russia would allow a tv channel such as yours to return to moscow? because many people think that the repression and the authoritarianism may be worse. no, frankly, i do not agree with such position. i think that after putin leaves, the situation in russia will be absolutely better than with putin. nothing could be worse than russia with putin. those who will be after putin will have to change the country, will have to start negotiations with the west, and it will be a different russia. tikhon dzyadko, i thank you very much indeed forjoining me from riga. thanks a lot. thank you so much.

good morning. not a lot happening in any great hurry in terms of the weather across the uk in the days ahead. a big area of high pressure centred to the north of scotland has been with us so far this week and it stays with us right the way too into the weekend. you can see it wobbles about a bit in the next few days. but to the changes really that that will bring about are going to be very subtle in the next couple of days, very much like it's been just start the week. there'll be a lot of cloud across the u:k., but it will bear very little in the way of rain. it's the wind directions, if anything, that will shift about.

and that could just bring about some changes where we see the showers. a northeasterly, again this wednesday favors the northeast of england, parts of the midlands, maybe south wales picking up some showers, a few for east anglia to the far south east of england, maybe a bit more brightness than we saw on tuesday. again, some decent sunshine, i think for western scotland. temperatures on the thermometer, 89 degrees. thermometer, 8—9 degrees. but in that northeasterly wind, it's going to feel closer to five or six. plenty of cloud drifting around again overnight, wednesday into thursday, perhaps the skies becoming a little clearer towards the southeast across southern counties of england, greater chance of catching a frost here and also again, clearer skies for western scotland, allowing it to turn chillier. but any breaks where we've got some shelter could mean we catch a frost for first thing on thursday. subtle change for thursday. well, there's the high picture. doesn't look too different, does it? further apart, they get the lighter our winds become, and lighter winds for us on thursday may mean itjust feels slightly less chilly. so our temperatures will feel closer to the figures that we'd read on the thermometer. feeling around the 9 or 10 degree mark is an improvement by three or four degrees really from earlier in the week. still a lot of cloud drifting

around, perhaps a little more in the way of sunshine on thursday, friday into saturday. the high wriggles a little bit further westwards, though. and look how those parallel lines start to track from north to south. that's the indicator that towards the end of the week and into the weekend, we could well be pulling in some arctic air. so, yes, it's felt chilly with the breeze off the north sea recently, but come the weekend, we could be pulling in some much colder air. and later on in the weekend, into the start of next week, signs it might become a little bit more unsettled as well. so, there's just the possibility of something a little bit more wintry in our outlook.

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