because are risking their lives in a dangerous route to the us. where in america, what happens once they make its impact to of a special investigation? $1.00 oh $1.00 east, aust. chinese, my friends, the american dream is worth their risk and the sacrifice on out to 0, the russia is making games. and a toy with ukraine on the west is considering its response. phones has not pulled up sending troops to ukraine, but the idea has been rejected by finalize. so is the west existing support enough for kids? and more so if somebody took me to face russia, this is inside story, the

color there and welcome to the program on this policy. okay. now the war and ukraine has raged for the 2 years western allies, a boosting their support in the hope of turning the tide against russia. about direct intervention has always been off the table until now. french president emanuel not gone has now floated the idea of moving direct involved and perhaps even pushing boots on the ground. could western powers ever united behind a move like this? and how would russia we ask? what will speak to a panel and just a minute that fast can do a lot of hand has this report. the european leaders gather in paris and a bit to display their solidarity with ukraine at war with russia. western powers pledge further military supplies with french presents emmanuel macross hinted at more. you can see so to do to over you. there was no consensus today to put troops on the ground and the men of its official assumes and endorsed. but nothing should be excluded. we will do everything so that russia can not win this war. for

many months, the conflict has largely been at a stalemate. ukraine and struggled to secure any gains. well, russia has come to it, made in roads in the east ukraine's present bought the mirrors, the landscape once more support from a cron suggestion of western boots on the ground as revealed divisions among the allies. will at present mal chrome speak. he for his military and what he is or is not willing to do with, with his troops present as being clear. he does not support us troops involved in this conflict in ukraine, and that was active, which on the ground is kind of what's on the ground, is not an option for the federal republic of germany. it cannot be an option and it will not be an option. russia, as long framed the war as a struggle against the combined power of the west, the kremlin wars, the western troops to play in ukraine, a full scale war with nato could be unavoidable. it isn't in the interest of these countries and they should be mindful. in the case of sending troops,

we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability of a direct conflict between nato and russia. the war and ukraine has rate for more than 2 years. billions of dollars worth of western military support has so far failed to turn the tide against russia. now, some western powers must consider whether putting the troops on the ground is a realistic option. tends mountain elda 0 for inside story. the oh, that's not bringing, i guess into we have pieces all me as he's the executive director of the razor democracy initiative and brussels and, and jessica is a former principal spokespersons and nature. she's currently a distinguished fellow at the royal united services institute. and the number that we have alexander cox, and he's the founder of global political insights and provides political on communications advice to governments with expertise on russia and central asia. it's really great to have you all on inside story with us today. thanks for your

time. i want to start with, with the space or play on the ground as it is right now. it's about the some time to observe is even senior minute freaking. mom does that. we're, we're in a bit of a stalemate between ukraine and russia. but it feels like in the last couple of weeks about this month or so, the russia has obtained the upper hand. oh, why would you say about span? so can i think this is a very difficult moment on the front lines in ukraine. however, we should not forget that ukraine has maintained its sovereignty, which is exactly what russia has attacked. ukraine has also managed to reclaim about a 50 percent of the territory occupied by russia and important. the ukraine has managed to, to set up the grain cory door going through the black sea so that it continues to exports its it's brings to the rest of the world. so yes, this is

a difficult time and 10 is going to be a difficult. yeah. but the ukraine has shown that it can hold its own then that's why we have to continue supporting ukraine much foster. and here's the phrase difficult time, alexander. let me bring you in here because i wonder if the narrative is very different in moscow, especially with the last set of ideas. guy is russia feeling like it's taking charge? and yes, they will be sitting about at the moment for several reasons. well, 1st of all, as close as you mentioned, it's the successes on the buckled route. the 2nd reason is that the sanctions that are being put against russia not having the effect, the west, the want to the restroom because essentially it turned its economy into a war economy. which means it's able to produce more military equipment. and that munition a vine ukraine can produce and even the rest can provide to ukraine. so they feel

quite comfortable going forward with this with this full. and certainly you have to say that the rest of the moment looks quite decisive, which is perhaps given the kremlin also a bit of confidence that we're, we're seeing the but some disparity in messaging within the european union. and of course the just recently macro and said that, uh, they're open to having nato troops on the ground in ukraine than other members of the u. s. i. she said no the, we're not looking at that. so there seems to be a bit of a division in the west right now, which i do think is given russia quite a bit of confidence going forward. i want to come back to some of those divisions and look at then in depths, but piece of just picking up on something that alexander said there in terms of the availability of weapons and artillery, ukrainian official senior ones have said that they wouldn't have had to of withdrawing from of the sky if they had enough artillery to defend it. so the delays that we're seeing and tons of west and support arriving in cable in ukraine

on the front lines. that's costing territory it's costing lives. how's that going? was a visa? well indeed, this is a start study in congress so that we see it on the one hand rule, you know, with the west is not able to overcome what essentially is a, you know, a dilemma of a collective action to collect an action problem where there's big threaten us congress ends on the try block, the continued a to you credit in the present back on the same one thing while others are then rushing to say, no, there's going to be no boots on the bottom, which is like white rice. but it's my question, why rush and reassure putting that there's going to be no boots on the ground. there's such a thing as strategic can be do with the russians, are using it all the way and europeans that simply not using it. and i just don't understand why even if they don't dentist and what's on the ground, leaving it as a matter of strategic can be used as a good policy. and on the other hand,

we see that, you know, how rushed us. uh, essentially 5th columns such as hungry and slow like you are actually, you know, making life different so difficult both in the you and, and they then when it comes to the consensus on the crate. and finally, the provision of weapons and the one hand you, once again you have this in decisive west you up is only now waking up to the potential reality. they may have to do with valid us security umbrella. and they have to sort of start directly producing much more weapons than they ever did. the from is to create a certain amount, but they're not delivering even the house. well, hopefully by march we'll have 500000. but we're not, you know, holding out right. on the other hand, russia is normally producing up to $2000000.00 not to lose sales per year, especially the millions from the galleria. it stepped up and secure with the cooperation with iran. once again, i think the west has to really wake up to the reality of what's happening and we will see further territorial losses by ukraine. if they don't want to let me ask

you the question. the patient then has just posed you are sitting in brussels. why the leaders and european capitals, one thing to you is strategic on be here is he, is there a real fear of, of further escalation. look, the, the missions that nato had from the thoughts of, of, of this, of this crisis, a rushes from the connection based on of ukraine was on the one hand to continue supporting ukraine. self defense with to the right that ukraine has under the united nations job to it is defending its own territory sovereignty against an invasion, a non, for both invasion by russia. so actually, every un member has the obligation to support ukraine's right of self defense. the other mission of that nature has the aim was to prevent escalation to natal, terry tree. and that this plan and because nato is a defensive alliance,

nato does not want an even bigger conflict across europe. so that is, that has been the policy from the stop agreed by o allies, and i would dispute some of the, some of the points made by a, by on exams or in feature. i think we have actually seen unprecedented to unity, unprecedented support from, from the stock, from both the united states, canada european allies and many others around the world. so the support that has been provided to ukraine has been unprecedented. the unity has been unprecedented. but of course, this is something that's a national governments have to work, work on every day. and we see, and that is a fact that russia is getting a lot of our munition, a lot of drones,

lots of other support from fellow autocracies around the world, in particular, north korea and iran. so it's absolutely key. but the democracy is also step up and that is in fact what's being happening of countries in, in nato, are investing much more in, in the defense then. then they did the a couple of years ago, 18 out of such a long nato allies are investing around. so was either 2 or more then 2 percent of gdp on defense. they have been taking measure to increase the defense production to i'm initial production. but of course, it's not fast enough, it's just how the in democracy is to take the sort of decision. then it isn't dictatorships that's also a 5. 0 one i know talking there about restrictions or constrains on on how much can be sent. it also feels like national governments, as you mentioned, have been making individual decisions based on,

on their own national interest. so germany, for instance, i know they've been mulling over the idea of sending that taurus long range missiles that's been really contentious for them. they, if i recall correctly what we're not very keen to send time until the us also. sometimes the concerns clearly about escalation, germany doesn't one's a war with russia, but alexandra, nobody's ring about. sure. i mean, wondering about the flow escalation. so we've seen, initially germany said they were going to are nice and helmets, and then they sent tanks. now this talk about long range missiles, how is the slo escalation in terms of the sophistication of weapons being sent to your grand? how's that being viewed and mosca? as well, again, as i just mentioned before, it is viewed as a sort of weakness by the west. you see from the government's point of view of this war is essentially life with this. it is life or death for puts it in many ways. if you lose is this for uh well, it will be major consequences for him on his machine. and therefore,

the criminal is uh, uh, is ready to go all out. we don't see the same, let's say the same size of this uh from the west. and the more of the smaller trucks on the holidays going to be for the west uh to, to continue to provide that sort of support that the did provide the very beginning . and i do agree with that, the guess that initially they, the support was indeed substantial. but the more the trucks on the mall, i think there will be a, uh, an unfortunate realization that ukraine will not be able to take back the lines. but um that russia carly controls its not a popular narrative. it's one that's not being actively discussed in the, in the west, the circles. but russia has a very deep and significant defensive lines. in the 3rd true, that is gained concord so far on the ukraine will and just struggle to give that

back. they, they just to be the counselor at alexandra. i just want to, to clarify something you said earlier in terms of what the west is sending to ukraine. it's been so suddenly, fox, we have seen an escalation in sophistication. right. so, if russia didn't view tanks as an escalation, will they view long range missiles as an escalation? where does that end? is then the line, se, but it's on the ground west and on the ground. the last thing that puts on the ground will be significant. the escalation, and that's what exactly what the from instead now where the way of that red line is, it's difficult to say, i think when the war initially started, the crime ended put forward. many red lines which have been crossed by the west by now. and we haven't really seen significant response from the quote from a kind of in that regard. and nevertheless, i think by sending a long range missiles and so on. again, it might help in the short them. but what, what does the rest do?

once these missiles run out, do the continue sending them indefinitely. there is, there is no, they know that it is simply no possibility or something that is. so i think the rush, it would feel that in a long time, they have that behind a piece. there is a really want to come in the space jump in a good thing, nato allies against the whole 7. the whole g 7 has made clear that they will continue to support ukraine for as long as it takes and present michael actually says and whatever it takes. and i think that's a very important message because for russia, yeah, maybe it is a, is essential. so i put in, but this is a war of choice. that's russia and putting himself launched, they will not attract. this is a war of aggression. it's in the legal world, russian. so it's absolutely important that we continue to support that ukraine because it's defending its independence ended. so this us the territorial integrity

and these are fun. so principles. so i don't agree of that. so we will be running out of ammunition. actually, what you're seeing is a continual ramping up of the defense capabilities of industrial capabilities. nato has a defense industrial action plan, which is launched last year. there are contracts a being made to continuously for more, 155 millimeter munition, for patriot missiles. and these are both to defend nato allies, but also to continue to support your print. i'm really not at all, sir. i'm here now that the from so saying that they're not open to buying outside of europe potentially, which opens up a huge, huge market piece. right, i know you've been wanting to, to jump in for a while, please, please. yeah, i just wanted to say what we're talking about escalation and put this red line is i think it's, they've already thrown everything they have as you create short of

a nuclear weapons, they blown out for a couple of cold water. them. they put that rise to billions of body to discriminate. shelly, so really boils down to this logic that if you have nuclear weapons, then the old other countries have to just basically see whatever territory the nuclear power uh the country wants. and that is actually a, uh and then you know what it comes to. um, you know, and that's the international security. and you know, once again, we're not talking about scaling down, you know, expectations of ukrainians to be turned through. it's 1991 borders. i will tell you one thing, it's not the official policy yet, but i think there was realization in ukraine. it's not going to happen any time soon just to keep the territory just to keep you clean sovereignty. at this point, we require ratcheted, you know, significant lead crease, the levels of support and production of weapons. vladimir wouldn't have said just in december that he remains true to his goal of doing that certification demo to is ation of ukraine. it's neutral status. you mentioned me, the former president has said that you will be of by rights should be

a russian see, a desk, i should be a russian see, you have to really listen to what these folks are say in their telegraph, jones, and cetera they have not given up on their mexico goal, i've actually seen you play disappear either as a sovereign state. i want to take a quick look at this point, the contributions that we've been seeing from, from different countries. obviously, western powers, as we've been talking about, have been heavy, supporting new kinds worth it. let's look at some of those numbers. now, key was received around $270000000000.00 worth of a, including military financial and humanitarian support. the biggest diana is the united states that's given moving $75000000000.00 over the past 2 years. and a new aid package as we've been talking about was around $60000000000.00 is the currency sold in us congress. westinghouse have also given you can advanced weaponry, including tank spice of jets, and anti aircraft weapons looking at your pin contributions, germany. that was what more than $19000000000.00 with u. k. 9.8000000000 fronts.

i was interested to see is 686000000. so it's pretty bold of back on to talk about needing to do more when vince that fall behind and contributions isn't a don't wanna as well. according to the keela institute, which is tracking the, the, the public contributions because of course, some of the contributions may not always be public. indeed, the frost is in 14 place. also indeed, as you said, to the united states, germany, which is the biggest european contribute to the u. k. problem. many, many of us. um, so everybody is, is contributing but so i fully agree that everybody needs to do more because this is an existential moment for ukraine. but also for those around the world of that don't want to see an imperial project. that is,

what russia actually has as a, as pizza was saying that this is about destroying the sovereignty. and territory integrity annihilating a whole country, denying the identity of a whole people. this is an imperial project, which if it succeeds, will send the wrong message to other big countries around the world that to think that they can use force to achieve that goal. well, let me then turn this back to alexander because we're talking about ramping up support here from western allies over a relatively long period of time. it seems from my interview is alexandra with senior russian officials. it sounds like moscow already feels that it's at pool with nate to the whole of nature. what difference would would boots on the ground, for example made of if they already things that there it will with the west as well . i think um, how many puts on the ground or would it just be a significant escalation?

because if, if um, if something lady was saying that's among the nato soldiers, that does raise the question as to whether indeed russia is, in fact, in a direct conflict with nato. whiles throughout your husband's saying at the moment that, of course they are fighting nato. it's kind of been in directly, you know, native has been providing meals for support of training, financial support, but it hasn't been a russian soldier versus a nato soldier having puts on the ground would indeed change that. and i showed that as well that if indeed the nato troops joined the conflict directly, we would see perhaps, and increase the rhetoric from russia. again, i think be that mentioned before, the potential use of nuclear weapons. now, i'm not saying that russia would use nuclear weapons if they to put their puts in the ground. however, as i mentioned before, this conflict is a, is a must win for russia. and if it's made of troops that in fact have

a positive effect for ukraine, we would probably see the that nuclear rhetoric come back again from the kremlin a piece a. let me all skate sorry. i want to, i'll come to you in just a 2nd because i do want to ask about a different kind of support as well. and whether that's been making a difference to russia and then it's perceptions of ukraine on the west. symbolic supports nature is chief. what just a few days ago was saying that it's inevitable that the new kind well joining the alliance, and we know there's an e u bid. i know that someone's land seems to keep changing something on that timeline. but that's obviously also in the works. does any of that change, anything you can becoming a member of nato or the, your pizza or? well, i think that even the, even if it's still a remote event to outlook, you were talking about public conservatively 10 years for each um prospect. uh, this is an incredible, like you said symbolic reassurance and helpful to you. great. it's been very

difficult to this last year and it's getting even more difficult, especially in the absence of a decision by the us congress in many ways, much more difficult than last year. even remember, when russian was started getting our electrical infrastructure, we were out of a, you know, power we didn't, you know, with for days we went without electricity and sometimes access to water. but then we had the sympathy and support by the entire world. and that seems to have been slipping. obviously russians have gas there and that's why they're have, they have their agents on the ground trying to influence politics in the u on the email be up in uh no problem in to re elections in june. they have, obviously, a seemingly gotten hold of the soul of the republican party of the lighted states of america. so uh, to have this as a, uh, eventually we'll sort of, uh, i see you on this date, this promise of nato membership. you, 1st of all, that is the only true guarantee of ukraine ever. and finally,

breaking away with the so called to see me. there are some world and all that. it entails continuous aggression, ignoring all the basic, uh, human rights standards, etc. but it will also be a shot in the arm of your credit score. you'll find the die by the thousands every week, every month. so, you know, without that, i think you probably would do a sink into a row, you know, the nicholas driveway for last week and your name is extreme politics and i would not blow out a return of sort of sort a certain pro russian an n type western elements you can not take for granted, you can speak to you with a pro western pro european stance. so this is a very, very delicate moments. oh, want to, are you concerned to talk about will fatigue at the moment in western capitalism, particularly as we also now she is republican senators in the us for instance. now they're talking about some kind of long term negotiated settlement, rather than actually saying that you came right within the school. so i think it's

a, this isn't debates in all democratic congress, and i think people realize that it's in our strategic interest to continue supporting the ukraine and the nato allies are doing everything they can to do that. but let me just so pick on, on some of the points that we had that's about who's on the ground. now the people who have boots on the ground in your brain, the russians, and they should pull them out, because that is an ego of aggression. there'd be no discussion about nato who's on the ground present. my phone does not say that he did not refer to native boots on the ground. he refer to the possibility of maybe a also is, which is foreign minister then the clarified is about non non combatant forces. the troops, perhaps the military advisors to help with the mining or cyber defense. so i think we should put that to, to, to man. the other thing is about this idea of rushes,

existential. i really must push back on that. this is nothing exist. central. russia is the biggest country in the whole world. russia to should stop trying to take other people's territory. it does not belong to russia. it does not need its russia could be a peaceful democratic country, but clearly russia once more, this is not an ex has central school of choice. well, let me throw that back then to alexander in terms of, of going forward with is russia, see this ending and what kinds of strategic calculations isn't making? looking at this here, especially with a huge selection on the horizon a yes or so. so let me clarify that. i do believe this is an existential level. so puts in, it might not be in the special for the russian people. we must make a difference between that. the puts in is not the russian people, the russian people are not puts in about 4 points in this is

a must winnable issues this i should have gone all in. if you lose this, the tire should, that russia has conquered, that would have significant consequences for him. so therefore, he is not able to back down at the moment in terms of the, the strategy and the you mentioned, they negotiated settlement. i think it's almost inevitable that this conflict will end through. ready diplomatic discussion and some kind of an agreement. so it's, it's clear that russia will not give up the land that is the taking the legally thus far. and it might not be able to gain much more line going forward. so we may end up in some kind of a frozen conflict, but essentially both sides. sometimes one side gains a bit more, sometimes of a side pushes back. we'll eventually reach frozen conflict. i think for russia, their aim is to keep the, the territories, the republicans that they have for onyx. uh,

legally. uh that for them is the minimum. of course the, ideally they was the that's the see. yeah. have to i'm afraid we'll have to leave out discussion that, but we'll certainly see whether it's discussions do end up if they do indeed to take place. and thank you. in the meantime, to order of august, if he does only have, i want to learn jessica and alexander cox and, and thank you to for watching. remember, you can see this program again any time by visiting our website to that's out of there dot com for further discussion do goes well facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. remember, you can also join the conversation on x handle is at a inside story for me, and as soon as you take on the whole team here into the, the unsettled tax upfront takes on the biggest cities of context to what is happening now. it is a complex 3 question question of 5 upfront

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