is come on the anniversary of the 1986 revolution to the top of marcus. his father ought to be low reports now from the distant memory for many of these protesters. but they say the spirit of the people power revolution in 1986 lives in them 38 years on their fighting, an attempt to change the constitution by the son of the president, that earlier generation topple. remember the last ones from history? oh my gosh. because once you start to be that one and another mark on friday, the one off when i fall, where again, right, providing i tried to change something, marcus and his allies in congress is just the change will all the involve economic provisions of the constitution. the protesters don't believe it. the problem is that the limit, the number is not the ones they will fit for the assembly. you're not limited to the probations are open,

including the presidency at the moment, limited to a single 6 year term. the current, closer to the philippines was drafted and approved after the 1986 mass uprising. the end of the 20th of ferdinand market, senior father of president bob, this junior partners here say, efforts to overhaul the constitution are part of historical revisionism that made the markers political. come back possible. marcus junior, isn't the 1st philippine president to attempt to change the constitution every president since 1992 did. so including his predecessor rodrigo to turn to but the turn to now says he's against change, and it's called for the succession of the island of men to now into sudden philippines. a move critics say, is self serving. i think it began when mark or junk came from. the goal is you know, that by itself was a clear signal, the things are finished between them. i'm the,

it seems to me and that's the sides. have come out soon, including persisted reports that investigators of the international criminal court have been to the philippines to look into detroit is drug war, despite marcus juniors repeated assertion, that is government won't help the i. c. c. barney below al jazeera manila. but i'll be back with no news in half an hour. i'm much more is ever on a website i want to 0 dot com upfront is next. president biden says one to 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis. or does anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for, i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy and what are the long term consequences

for the region and the world? a quizzical look at us politics. the bottom line. as the warren ukraine enters its 3rd year, the civilian death toll continues to mount in large areas of the country had been ravaged by war. so what is the future of ukraine? and will the war spill over into neighboring countries? that's our discussion this week, and it upfront special the 2 years on from russia's full scale invasion of ukraine fears or mounting that the conflict may become another endless war. the possibilities thus far have led to more than $10000.00 civilian debts and left massive destruction in its wake. militarily, the situation on the ground is difficult to assess. but last week, russia scored an important victory when it captured the eastern ukrainian city of difficult. so what will happen now are peace negotiations even possible. what lies ahead for ukrainian and russian leadership can just be the best today, are less you have bus and then go ukrainian member of parliament and human rights

lawyer alia might be of a political scientist currently at u. c. berkeley and aaron match a journalist and host of the push back on the grades or what i think you all for joining me on upfront. let's see, i'm going to start with you band been conflicting narratives as to which country is succeeding in this war. russian president vladimir putin has said that russian defeat is impossible, while ukrainian president of vladimir zalinski previously said, we know russia will lose. so what's the truth? you're in your view, but what are you? what are you thinking span at the moment? a grain is fighting for his existence. this has been the case since day one, which was back on the 20th february 2014. when russian sauce attacked to kramer, nomics premiere and ukraine was fighting against russia's military aggression, aggression being an international crime, the whole world was standing behind the frame since 2014 and especially off to the

escalation of that's uh, a fraction of 2022. to push back from russian to push back on the very fact, all the aggressive spreading of autographs. this is, this is the assessment of the situation and what is possible or impossible and what should and shouldn't happen. this is a full for the global community to judge, and i think it's up to you, crane and all those partner and spending time, the praying to judge and at the moment everything is being everything possible is being done to make sure that there is no victory for russia, and that there is a collective victory full that there isn't your open air and into this conversation, aaron, i mean, what do you make of that? i mean uh, let's see is putting a pretty clear cut morrow and political picture here. she's saying there's a, there's an active aggression at the legal and the global community knows the right side of the issue here. what do you say? i have a different take on how this war began and it's important understand how it began

because that was the key to how this war and 10 years ago i agree, this war began, but i think it began a much different terms. 10 years ago there was a cooling ukraine, there was a democratically elected president, the article which he was overthrown. he was corrupt. there were many people protesting him, but the fact was, he was democratically elected. he was over throwing the leaders of the crew. were members of far right groups, including right sector and so about who the european parliament when you earlier had condemned for anti semitic xenophobic views. they receive top cabinet post and into into government the us plan and really dangerous of all by backing this cool. victoria new in the top us official was caught on tape podding, who would be the next leader of ukraine. that the new co government then wage the thoughts on the ethnic russians of eastern ukraine. one of the 1st moves was the kind of band the russian language in response. you've had eastern ukrainians, rise up and yes, roughly did see, i'm sorry, rush on a 2nd. i didn't mean interrupt you. i didn't interrupt one second. let's what will, i will bring you back and i'll give you

a chance to respond russia to russia to change crime yet, which by the way, a lot of the population didn't support joining russia is ukraine officials admitted at the time. then there was a peace process, there was something called the mentor to a court. the basic bargain was that ukraine was gonna recognize the autonomy of eastern ukraine. and the fighting would stop ukraine under the pressure of the same far right nationalist or drove the crew refuse to implement minutes which led to ultimately rush out, deciding to invade. i don't support rushes invasion, but you have to recognize that from the start there were opportunities to avoid that invasion by respecting the men's court afterwards. there was a peace deal reached in turkey in april 2022 weeks into the war. we all know this from multiple officials, nato officials and credit officials. there was a deal rich between ukraine and russia, but forced johnson the permanent w. k. stepped in and said to ukraine, we're not going to back you up. if you make a peace deal with russia, you should keep fighting. and that i think is has let us to where we are today. let's you or i'm sorry, but the amount of um,

just twisted fast and basic incorrect information was absolutely incredible. so 1st of all, let's go back 220-142-0134 that matter. what was happening in the crate on what was happening in the crate. and at the time was that the people of ukraine came out. it's not just him keys, but across all of the print to protest you can call, which is regime on his pay and putting down the foot on a democratic process that was unrolling in the country. and you prince choice to become a to come on the past to the accession to the you. and that's when the call, which was you was often on where the general for which fleet he went to russia, where he is now welcomed by the function and all of his ability to cover today. you can still have a democratically elected parliament,

a democratically elected president who the population supports. i'm also a government which is functioning. and i'm in the years off to the my don revolution of dignity. an officer, russia has next. the amex crimea, there was no referendum. none of that, if you are pulling a referendum a, an inquiry was where a lot of the people were held the gun point. that's not the referendum. so and also russia has legally occupied significant regions. the people of ukraine are still absolutely united in bringing territorial integrity back to you. i'm a so just another correction, the minister of course, the sole goldman scott ports. 2 were made under a force and any agreements made under force or even threat, the use of force is deemed now and what is that?

these are basic international law for united security card. and then they want to jump in. i gotta move others we want to cover a lot of ground. i make sure both even just jump back into the conversation. let me go to you for a minute. because over the weekend are russian forces took over the eastern ukrainian city of difficulty, which has shifted the front line. and some say, it's given russia the upper hand at the moment. but what do you make of these recent developments? i think that it was a tech to go victory, but there is no chance of russian victory strategically because you, greens immediately potential and the will to resist these invasion is so strong. that's the real breakthrough on the front line isn't possible. so 5 div, correct is one small town and the front line, is it thousands get one of those else? look at the lives of the boards to make about add ons, speech, but i guess i don't have the time. i will just post one single question again and

the elected president become a dictator. and another question is going to be both rises up used. uh, you could either, let's say a yellow jenkins and friends have this demonstration. and then my court decides to show 100 demonstrators. what do you think is going to happen in this scenario? i mean, you got this demonstration. it was a dispersed with the use of force and people who are shot to people. but you do think the people for us are going to just stand by this and say, how about to you, but use our elected president? you know, we should, we should not try to raise up against you. so in that sense my don. ready was not, it was, it was a revolution and a response to that uprising in violation of every possible agreement, which is a next grade here in violation of 19 i'm the wedgwood there in an interview with former fox news host tucker carlson. vladimir put is that he was willing to discuss

a peace agreement to in the war, but russia has shown no indication that it will renounce any territories that were in x during the conflict. he previously told key that new port territorial realities have to be taken into account if that is the case. can you see negotiations being even possible? i definitely see negotiation as possible. i don't see the results in anything that's a different thing. i mean, certainly rustic and have freak negotiations sending the 3rd year for the people to negotiate like you deeds in march to 1022. but this is not important to put, you know, he's not going to negotiate and he's in his mind. it just you, possible to inflict and leisure military defeats on your credit, and this is, gets altima. the goal ends the tool to achieve this goal here triggered but what

does it mean to turn the is it also possible, really? and i want to bring you into and that he does when a piece agreement, it's just the, the, it's just the relinquishment of annex territory. so we will be part of state agreement. is there any way? very sincere button, the agreement, but simply holding his ground on, pardon me, you know, it's not about right near it wouldn't take his own words. now it's about the full blown kids adobe parts territories. that will help you, but it's up to 2020 to answer. secondly, i see 0 instigation that which we see here is to stop the war even with the steps, basically stealing almost 20 percent or for you brittany, on that. so i, i said no indication that which is good. so is there, there are, what do you make of that? what do you make of that assessment? he said look, this is, or the rhetoric you can't have a peace agreement period if you have no one. if you have a doctor and or commitment to permanent war, but also you can't have a legitimate piece agreement. if fundamentally you're unwilling to relinquish,

not just crime here, but any of the land that's been, that's been annex enable and that's gonna take, well, i agree with the point that putting in now is not going to give up territory and not just crime. yeah. other parts of it, 20 percent of the new crane that russia has taken, but we have to look at how that is come to be. and my fundamental point is that in april 2022, you would a piece deal risk in this dumble between russia and ukraine. a topic printing diplomat. it was part of the delegation recently said, quote, pollutant, did everything possible to make peace? the head of you crimes delegation was a member of the credit, and parliament said that we could have ended the war, had we just declared neutrality. that was russia's demand back. that russian was ready to withdraw with pre invasion lines. but what happened, boris johnson came over and told ukraine, sorry, we're not going to offer you the security guarantees and you need for a peace deal with russia. that was an order basically from ukraine's western sponsors to keep fighting. and ukraine unfortunately obeyed. so, yes, right now, russia's terms would be a lot more harsh. we have to understand. that's as far as you'd agree, that they are the reasonable. well, they're just the sure. sure. listen,

i would love it if russia didn't take the current in territory, but that's a reality now. and the point is for ukraine, the question is, do you want to kill what, what do you do when you say it's a reality? i mean, almost the ukraine could have kept all of its territory. had it been i, i get you the boy, i guess my question is, what's the, what's the value of pointing to saying this could have been different. at this moment, you're conceding that there is no legal annexation. you're acknowledging that this is wrong. why not have the critique of the russian annexation of land and the illegal occupation of land rather than say, this could have been avoided diplomatically or since usually wrote in the case of crimea. again, yes, you will have to trust the referendum that was held under russian control, but according to us, government funded pulse of crimea. a majority of the population wants to be part of russia. that's a fact. or multiple polls showing that that's not rushing profit data. and the is the interest, i'm sorry, i didn't. if you're on deck, leslie i'm probably gonna bring in so you can respond to this in eastern ukraine. i don't know what the popular sentiment is that i would propose a referendums. i said some people have talked about to see, you know,

who wants to be with it, but what i'm saying is your printer could have kept all the territory, had it respected the mental chords, which contrary to what was said before, was not legitimate. it was endorsed by the web security council. it was reached by the cranium government when you cream, tried to implement some of the provisions. there were protests led by alternation with outside the parliament saying no to no to capitulation. police officers were killed because you have unfortunately in ukraine a contingent of alternation. let's go don't see eastern ukrainians who identify with russia is equal and that's why they've been condemned. and there's even in us congressional ban on funding. an army as off battalion, which is a neo nazi brigade, incorporated into any current in military. and one point in 2014, the best source for whether or not this was a popular revolution, i think is ukrainian public opinion. and you can read from polls back then in the key post in the washington post that the country was divided, but half the country supported the protest, half the country didn't. and in that situation,

when you try to force inquiring into one camp, into cutting off all its ties to russia when you have millions of people who identify as the russian who want to have ties with russia, it's suicide and helps explain why we're in that as as i read today, but let's your last april russian did offer a piece deal that was rejected by ukraine on the ground. it said that moscow could not be trusted to him. hold it. however, the lead of their cleaning and delegation to the negotiations did spell out. one of the requisites russ russian was asking for thing, quote, they were prepared to end the war if we agreed to as finland once did neutrality and committed that we would not join nato. would ukraine consider not joining nato to region in to the war over 80 percent of the population of the printer. they supports. 5 grand joining me on this as a result of russian aggression against the crime, because we want security guarantees and we need real security guards because again, uh, you know, going back into his, in russia was supposed to be

a guarantee of the price security off to you print de la puts nuclear weapons. # back in 1996, the prussian wants to come to that actually ended up in raising print also as he wants to go into history as i run. and does this is important in 1991 when you train regains it's independence from the soviet union from russia. russia was the country that accepted that ukraine is an integral, independent country was, crania, as he transferred, was done yes, because you can started for, you will have to reprint surgery and all the of the therapies which rush up to date, quote, effective control over was, it's new, it's russia accepted, it signed off on it and then reached it's very worked on this very legal responsibilities. so what are we talking about now? what kinds of negotiations negotiations to a fees a terrorist autocratic review doesn't skewing ukrainians by the day or the,

the duration of the last 10 years. and where do you want to come with this negotiation? what give off the premium line? give us the rights to the people, all the people who are living on that line to be bringing in to speak to you, putting your language as they want to speak it, including and let me ask them along which do speak ukrainian, by the way to when people there want to associate themselves with the phrase i live under the plane inside, but they cannot because that is a danger to their lives because showing any affiliation was you print today in finance. coal, hans means that you are taking to prison to torture counts. i'm sorry, what kinds of negotiations are we talking about on what kind of a peaceful russia and regime is aaron trying to print for the audience. it, you claim is received billions of dollars in europe and united states in the form of military assistance and other a and u. s. as in the process of trying to improve another $61000000000.00 in support to

the country. southern voice that concerned about this approach hoping to prolong the war. one us senator called ukraine, quote, america's new animal is more and warned that the united states, as quote, heading down the same path that mired us in middle eastern conflicts for over 2 decades. what do you make of that, that the funding of creating to this extent and this, and this approach to funding only allows ukraine to keep the war going. i see i see this as the logical because you bring these notes that these work and what basically the biggest obstacles abuse is what you're gonna put you and haven't decrypted. so uh, is if uh, in a situation with those american military supports, the world would store because what you would just simply stop it taking you great. so this is not codes going to go. it's not like you for the gear stops supplying

your brain with weapons, then suddenly decides to stoke is invasion because, oh no, they don't get the weapons. you know, i'm not going to take your brain anymore because before 2022, a supplies of weapons to brain or the social diesel beads were meaning mo, uh, in contradiction to what the tribune is seeing at the moment. and we don't, these weapons, the water will be prolonged because boucher is going to push until she can inflict the strategic defeat because he is ultimately cool in this work is to defeats you great details of what you need to win or lose. so for what you mean, the bluetooth is important to him. i think it's the logical proposition. so stopping the supplies of where they will ask another question and that same vein here, isn't it? and you're saying that you're saying that we would continue to prosecute this war some have even argued it might prompt him to expand his imperial ambitions.

in november of last year, russian foreign minister surveyed that wrong insinuated, bet. now though, that might take a similar path to ukraine, thing about adobe is destined to fall to the next victim in the west unleashed hybrid war against russia. i mean, it's not that far fetched mir and i'm going to, i got, i want to get your take on this to, i mean, they've occupied parts of georgia and, oh, wait, annex premier, it pardon me. in 2014, and as a full on invasion of ukraine in 2020 to one could argue you don't need a crystal ball for this. this is, this is inevitable. you know, it's just very shortly. that's in the beginning of the work. there was an official statements by some russian general that the goal is to make a lend score either to model because part of my door goal brass needs to be a. ready russian troops and so the idea was to one goes, so then you bring and so one good ideas. and so make a board or the, you know, do,

does needs to, through the, you bring and standard 3. so. ready taking my goal is definitely possible in this scenario. and so it was almost denounced by russian. so they do go as far as actually seeing that they're going to exec multiple. but they said that the goal is to make this quarter door of dignity at the trash rules from the actual russian standards we do, the tendency to, i'll do it to would companies do so we just northwest fished and new shooting. you ensure that the view this comes down to whether you're seeing russia is acting as a fundamentally aggressive expansion is power, or whether it has legitimate security concerns. georgia, 2008. that happened because george attacked russian allies 1st, russia that intervene. unfortunately, george, i think got betrayed by dick cheney, which encourage them to watch that operation and made, given the impression that the us would have george's back again 2014. we've already gone over the history. there was a crew that happened whether you like in a corporate or not. he was over thrown crimea historically,

as part of the russian sphere and host rushes most important naval base. there was no way rush it was gonna let crimea fall into the hands of government that is now talking about joining nato. which by the way was previously outlined on the funding constitution. if roger was expansion his wife and to take donuts in the honda in 2014, when the leaders and the brakes were public's were begging to be part of russia. russia said, no, let's do the math. i don't know where does i mean every, the imperial power that has occupied later and explained i always say there's a security concern. the only thing is a strategic military purpose. they, they never just say, hey, we're being, you know, warmongers and everything is taken out. there's always a good question and is a legitimate or not, but when i was a part of the question was, do you think rush to take it more? do i do i see them expanding to go after nato countries? absolutely not. that would be suicide, or that would be inviting more with native world war 3. they are in ukraine because of ukraine's significance to russia. william burns is a current director of the c i it. he bought

a cable in 2008 warning that ukraine for russia. it was a red line across the spectrum, whether it's put in or his liberal critics, because of ukraine's historical significance to russia, including having people inside your brain, millions of who are a family in russia to identify as ethnic russian. and that's why it was always crazy to try the dry ukraine into one camp. why not let it be neutral respect, and you have people in ukraine who hate russia fair enough to do people. and ukraine also want to be a part of russia. so the projects and the 2014 has been to integrate ukraine into the u. s. light order, and that's been catastrophic. let's say i wanna bring you is what i want you to spawn aaron. but also this fundamental question of doing, you see russia expanding even further and continuing this sort of power that we've seen since 2008? yes, russia will expand once, given the chance of this, nobody fight spots. if you praise stops twice and back rushing, fluids fine, and what will happen is that you will have russian missiles directed at a number of western capitals located that you praise the fall most west and borders

which will be done for me and will be reachable within 2 hours, if this is something that says you're lucky required for the us once. i'm pretty sure that the answer is no. um, this is why uh, there's also robot support for you re and drove off and i'll just come to the nation by pointing back towards rush. i'm something that i want to get straight arrow and has implied so many times. that's deep writing is almost like a prophet's of either the us or the that's the piece you present as an independent country party for its very existence. it says not to be any foreigners coming from any other country, but the people of ukraine, r o b, that heart their wish to preserve that homes protects their families and to re gain control of our own land. and this is what has happened, and we are grateful to every single country that is spending behind us with

military support financial a few minutes early on any other support and how that can be provided to make sure that the process of russian and rushes or to practical on the food, you know, under a whole bunch of other positions, does not spread floods up then rushes borders and we're trying to push them back and making any kind of negotiations and peace with russia without actually having security guarantees from a number of countries is impossible, and will never be possible. i think this is where i'd like to to these things and make things clear and just discuss. all right, that's all we have time for, unless you alia aaron. thank you all for joining. i'm sure. all right, everyone, that is our show upfront. we'll be back the a

veto. he's really military mans. the shogun, legalese, randy settlements. the okey point, west bank, the red lines, bulk the borders of the all me describe just new security. so we're now in the area . i think you're just saw on those laps. they're all illegal is riley settlers living just a few 100 meters from here in caravans in that direction. and the army says that it's a necessity in order to expand a so called securities are around illegal is right. the settlements suddenly is ready, soldiers appear on the opposite bank. they approach forcing us to stop filming. it contained us for more than 2 hours. the armies, confiscation of land, around the legalese, reg, new settlements. charlotte standing and say, is more proof of israel breaking international hard hitting

into blues as a un ambassador position given to you by or does have both. you've described that is better than is better than any thought provoking on my question to you. all the good cooks, i think, is the most difficult press than our part to answer facing realities. usb, toe in the security council. this is a major stumbling block, is a problem to access it. you hear the story on talk to how does era in october 2023, these raising ministry of intelligence proposed the forcible and permanent transfer of palestinians from because the street, the people in power, those into the history of the amount of spinning and displacement and explorers whether clearing palestinians from because the occupied westbank is, is range to transfer on and just the

facing salvation, hundreds of palestinians friend, old and gaza in a desperate search for food despite ongoing is really a tax. the other there on children oldest is obviously rely from the also coming up southern gaza slow just hospital left in ruins after his riley forces partially withdrawal from the facility. 6