done to his integrity, he's a president, that's respect that people, he's a president that sets to republican values. we say no to what feels like of beautification campaign. and yes to says sunday was supposed to be a day of voting instead. it's a day of protest. 16 candidates from the council, the presidential election are saying no to solve, call for national dialogue. instead they want to see a nation wide civil disobedience to save syndic all they say peaceful demonstrations. normally banned by authorities have been allowed. hundreds gathered saying they have been robbed of there, but there is no need for dialogue. if we just want to vote, microsoft does not have a monopoly on a pilot. his time is about that he needs to leave at the end of his time. on the 2nd of april, but they are members of the opposition who disagree and want to restart the electro process from the beginning with a new list of candidates free. so go the chance these demonstrators want to see the

jail, the opposition to figure was mind sunk, a freed before any dialogue with the president solves decision to delay the vote has divided the all position and painted his reputation. many of those that have come out to demonstrate in favor of president mikey seller, not from the car, but the countryside in many of them are women. he has lifted the millions of people out of poverty during his time in office. but his economic record is now being overshadowed by this unprecedented political crisis. saul is extending the national dialogue beyond politicians to include religious and civil society leaders, but many are refusing to take part in the talks. they see so as not the solution, but the problem to a crisis. they believe he has orchestrated nicholas hawk elgin's era the car the movie oppenheimer has won 3 prizes at the screen. actors guild awards this or many

as a big into case at all. who could win an oscar next month at the trial on public open heineman, who helps bills the 1st atomic bomb when the award for best movie cost kelly. and if he won best actor with kosta robert downey junior best supporting actor the fact and we're back in the show as back in the words are back in the industry is back is a nice validation of what we were fighting for. and you know, this is at the, at the end of the day, it's a union and we all are working toward the same day with the safety for all of our members and living wage for all of us. well that's so for me, tell them the cry. for the moment i will be back in around half an hour. it is more news on our website. sale to sierra stay with us upfront is up. next record numbers of chinese asylum seekers are traveling to the us. search double

menu. take a dangerous route through loss of america, a buyer, a gang of people, points that have come in the 1st of a 2 part investigation. 101 east meets the chinese. my friends risk middle to the american dream on out to 0. as a warning, crane enters its 3rd year civilian death, toll continues to mount in large areas of the country have been ravaged by war. so what is the future of you pray? and will the war spill over into neighboring countries? that's our discussion this week. and it upfront special the 2 years on from russia's full scale invasion of ukraine fears or mounting that the conflict may become another endless war. the hospitality is best far have led to more than 10000 civilian deaths and left massive destruction in its wake. militarily. the situation on the ground is difficult to assess. but last week russia scored an important victory when it captured the eastern ukrainian city of difficult. so what will

happen now are peace negotiations even possible? what lies ahead for your brain in, in russian leadership, good is to be the best today are less, you have bus and then go ukrainian member of parliament and human rights lawyer. billy, it might be of a political scientist currently at u. c. berkeley. and aaron match a journalist and host of the push back on the grades. i wanna thank you all for joining me on upfront. let's see, i'm going to start with you band bin conflicting narratives. as to which country is succeeding in this war, russian president vladimir putin has said that russian defeat is impossible, while ukrainian president of vladimir zalinski previously said, we know russia will lose. so what's the truth here in your view? what do you, what do you think things stand at the moment? a brain is fighting for his existence. this has been the case since day one, which was back on the 20th february 2014 on russian sauce attached to kramer. nomics premiere and ukraine is fighting against russia's military aggression,

aggression being an international crime. the whole world is standing behind you, praying since 2014 and especially off to the escalation of that's a fraction of 2022 to push back from russia to push back on the very fact. all the aggressive spreading of autographs is. this is, this is the assessment of the situation and what is possible or impossible and what should and shouldn't happen. this is a full for the global community to judge, and i think it's up to ukraine and all those partner and spending time to print to judge. and at the moment everything is the only thing possible is being done to make sure that there is no victory for russia, and that there is a collection victory full, the open air and into this conversation, aaron, i mean, what do you make of that? i mean, uh, let's see, it was taking a pretty clear cut moral and political picture here. she's saying there's a,

there's an active aggression at the legal and the global community knows the right side of the issue here. what do you say? i have a different take on how this war began and it's important understand how it began because that was the key to how this war and 10 years ago i agree, this war began, but i think it began and much different terms. 10 years ago there was a coo and ukraine, there was a democratically elected president, got a call, which he was overthrown. he was corrupt. there are many people protesting him, but the fact was, he was democratically elected. he was over throwing the leaders of the crew were members of far right groups, including right sector and so about who the european parliament when you earlier had condemned for anti semitic xena. phobic views. they receive top cabinet posts any and to include government us quite a really dangerous role. by backing this cool, victoria new in the top us official was caught on tape podding, who would be the next leader of ukraine. that the new co government then wage the salts on the ethnic russians of eastern ukraine. one of the 1st movies was to try to ban the russian language. in response,

you've had eastern ukrainian prize up and yes, rush. i did see, i'm sorry, rush on a 2nd. i didn't mean interrupt you. i didn't interrupt one second. let's say we'll uh, we'll bring it back and i'll give you a chance to respond russian. russia to cheese crime yet, which by the way, a lot of the population didn't support joining russia is ukraine officials admitted at the time, there was a peace process. there was something called the mentor to a court. the basic bargain was that ukraine was gonna recognize the autonomy of eastern ukraine, and the fighting would stop ukraine under the pressure of a same far right nationalist or a trophic who refused implement minutes, which led to ultimately rush out deciding to invade. i don't support rush as invasion, but you have to recognize that from the start there were opportunities to avoid that invasion by respecting the municipal court afterwards. there was a peace deal reached in turkey in april 2022 weeks into the war. we all know this from multiple officials, nato officials, ukraine officials, there was a deal rich between new crane and russia, but forest johnson, the permanent w. k. stepped in and said to ukraine, we're not going to back you up. if you make

a peace deal with russia, you should keep fighting. and that i think is, has let us to where we are today. let's you. i'm sorry, but the amount of um, just twisted fast and basic incorrect information was absolutely incredible. so 1st of all, let's go back 220-142-0134 that matter. what was happening in the crate. and what was happening in the frame that the time was that the people of ukraine came out. it's not just them kids, but across all of you print to protest. you can the quote which is the regime on his, him putting down the foot on a democratic process that was unrolling in the country. and you prince choice to become a to come on the past to the exception to the easy. and that's when the call, which was, you was ousted, and where the general for which to me he went to russia,

where he is now welcomed by the function. and all of his ability to cover today, you can still have a democratically elected part of a democratically elected president who the population supports. i'm also a government which is functioning. and in the years off to the my don revolution of dignity and officer, russia has next easily. amex crimea, there was no referendum. none of that. if you are calling a referendum a, an inquiry was where a lot of the people were held the gun point. that's not the referendum, i'm sorry. and also russia has a legally or 2 fights, and that's kind of a lot of regions. the people that we pray are still absolutely united in bringing territorial integrity back to you on a so just another correction, dement, i court the soul. goldman, sky ports were made under

a force and any agreements made under force where you direct them, use of force is deemed now and what day these are basic international law for you. i security and then you will to jump in. i got to move all the we want to cover a lot of ground. i make sure both even just jump back into the conversation here. let me go to you for a minute because over the weekend are russian forces took over the eastern ukrainian city of a difficult which has shifted the front line. and some say, it's given russia the upper hand at the moment. but what do you make of these recent developments? i think that it was a tech to go victory, but there is no chance of russian victory strategically because you, greens immediately potential and the will to resist these invasion is so strong. that's the real breakthrough on the front line isn't possible. so 5 div, correct is one small town and the front line is a thousands get one with this else. look at the lives of the boards to make about

add ons, speech, but i guess i don't have the time. i will just post one single question again and the link to the presidents become a dictator. and another question is going to people rise up a used uh, educator, let's say yellow jenkins and friends have this demonstration. and then my court decides to show 100 demonstrators. what do you think is going to happen in this scenario? i mean, you have this demonstration, it was a just 1st with the use of force and people who are shot to people. but you do think that people for us are going to just stand by this and say, how about to you, but use our elected president? you know, we should, we should not try to raise up against you. so in that sense might done. ready was not to do, it was a revolution and the response to that uprising in violation of every possible agreements which is a next grade here in violation of 19 i'm the wedgwood there in an interview with

former fox news host tucker carlson. vladimir proves that he was willing to discuss a peace agreement to in the war, but russia has shown no indication that it will renounce any territories that were in x during the conflict. he previously told key that new quote, territorial realities have to be taken into account if that is the case. can you see negotiations being even possible and i definitely see negotiation as possible. i don't see the results in anything that's a different thing. i mean, certainly rustic and have freak negotiations sending 3rd year for the people to negotiate like deeds in march to 1022. but this is not important to put, you know, he's not going to negotiate and he's in his mind, it just do possible to inflict and leisure military defeats on your credit. and

this is case altima. the goal ends the tool to achieve this goal here triggered what's, what does that mean to turn the, is it also possible, really i'm gonna bring you into and that he does what a peace agreement. it's just the, it's just the relinquishment of annex territory. so we won't be part of the state agreement. is there any way? very sincere button agreement, but simply holding his ground on, pardon me, you know, it's not about right here. it wouldn't take his own words. now it's about the whole won't get to the words territories that will help you, but it's up to 2022. and secondly, i see 0 instigation. that which we see here is to stop the war. even with the steps . basically, stealing almost 20 percent or for you brittany, on that. so i, i see no indication of that which is good. so stare, there are, what do you make of it? when you make of that assessment? he said look, this is an empty rhetoric. you can't have

a peace agreement period if you have no one if you have a doctor nor did commitment to permanent war, but also you can't have a legitimate peace agreement. if fundamentally you're unwilling to relinquish not just crime area, but any of the land. it's been, that's been an accident either way and it's gonna take, well, i agree with the point that putting in now is not going to give up the territory and not just crimea, other parts of it, 20 percent of that new crime that russia has taken. but we have to look at how that is come to be. and my fundamental point is that in april 2022, you would a piece deal or wasting a stumble between russia and ukraine. a topic printing diplomat. it was part of the delegation recently said, quote pollutant, did everything possible to make peace? the head of new crimes delegation was a member of the credit, and parliament said that we could have ended the war, had we just declared neutrality that was russia's demand back. that russian was ready to withdraw with pre invasion lines. but what happened, boris johnson came over and told ukraine, sorry, we're not going to offer you the security guarantees and you need for a peace deal with russia. that was an order basically from ukraine's western

sponsors to keep fighting. and ukraine unfortunately obeyed. so yes, right now rushes terms would be a lot more harsh. we have to understand. that's as far as you'd agree, that there are no reasonable. well, they're just sure sure. listen, i would love it if russia didn't take the creative territory, but that's a reality now. and the point is for ukraine, the question is, do you want to kill? what do you do when you say it's a reality? i mean, almost the ukraine could have kept all of its territory. had it been i, i get you the boy, i guess my question is, what's the, what's the value of pointing to saying this could have been different. at this moment, you're conceding that there is no legal annexation. you're acknowledging that this is wrong. why not have the critique of the russian annexation of land and the illegal occupation of land rather than say, this could have been avoided diplomatically or since usually wrote in the case of crimea. again, yes, you will have to trust the referendum that was held under russian control, but according to us, government funded pulse of crimea. a majority of the population wants to be a part of russia. that's a factor multiple polls showing that that's not rushing profit data. and the is the

income, it's just upside. and if you're on deck, let's say i'm probably gonna bring it in so you can respond to this in eastern ukraine. i don't know what the popular sentiment is that i would propose a referendums, as some people have talked about to see, you know, who wants to be with you. but what i'm saying is, you can't, could have kept all the territory ahead of respect to the medical chords, which contrary to what was said before, was not legitimate. it was endorsed by the web security council. it was reached by the crating government. when you cream, tried to implement some of the provisions there were protests led by alternation was outside the parliament saying no to know to capitulation, police officers were killed because you have unfortunately in ukraine. a contingent of altering nationalists who don't st. eastern new premium to identify with russia is equal and that's why they've been condemned. and there's even in us congressional ban on funding. an army as off battalion, which is a neo nazi brigade incorporated into, i mean, created military and one point on 2014. the best source for whether or not this was a popular revolution, i think is ukrainian public opinion. and you can read from polls back in,

in the key post and the washington post that the country was divided. but half the country supported the protest, half the country didn't. and in that situation, when you try to force inquiring into one camp, into cutting off all its ties to russia when you have millions of people who identify as the russian who want to have ties with russia, it's suicide and helps explain why we're in that as as i went today, but let's your last april, russian did offer a piece deal that was rejected by ukraine on the ground. it said that moscow could not be trusted to him. hold it. however, the leader of their cleaning and delegation to the negotiations did spell out one of the requisite rest restrooms, asking for thing quote, they were prepared to end the war if we agreed to as finland once did neutrality and committed that we would not join nato would ukraine consider not joining nato to region in to the war over 80 percent of the population we bring today supports. 5 grand joining make this as

a result of russian russian against ukraine because we want to security guarantees . and we need real security guards because again, uh, you know, going back into his, in russia was supposed to be a guarantee on the transfer security off to you print the nuclear weapons. # back in 1996, the prussia wants to come to that actually ended up amazing also as he wants to go into history as i run on dollars. this is important in 1991 when you train regains it's independence from the soviet union from russia. russia was the country that accepted that ukraine is an integral, independent country with crania, as you can start, was done. yes, because you can start from who have doesn't print surgery and all the of the therapies which rush up to date, quote, effective control over was, it's new, it's russia accepted. it signed off on it and then reached it's very work on this very legal responsibilities. so what are we talking about now?

what kinds of negotiations negotiations to appease a terrorist autocratic review that's and skewing ukrainians by the day of the duration of the last 10 years? and where do you want to come with this negotiation? what get off the premium line, give up the rights to the people, all the people who are living on that line to be bringing in to speak to you printing your language as they want to speak it and pull it in. and let me ask them once, which do speak ukrainian, by the way, to when people there want to associate themselves with the phrase i live under the printing and stuff, but they cannot because that is a danger to their lives. because showing any affiliation was you print today in burnett school, hans means that you are taking to prison to torture county. i'm sorry. what kind of negotiations are we talking about on what kind of a peaceful russia and regime is aaron trying to print for the audience. it,

you claim is received billions of dollars in europe and the united states in the form of military assistance and other a and u. s. as in the process of trying to improve another $61000000000.00 in support to the country. someone voiced the concern about this approach, helping to prolong the war. one us senator called ukraine, quote, america's new animal is more and warned that the united states, as quote, heading down the same path that mired us in middle eastern conflicts for over 2 decades. what do you make of that, that funding and crating to this extent and this, and this approach to funding only allows ukraine to keep them. we're going and i see, i see this as the logical because you brings you notes that these work and what loosely the biggest obstacles abuse is what you're fortunate and having decrypted. so uh, is if uh, in a situation with those american,

uh military supports, the water would still because what you would just simply still protecting you. great. so this is not codes going to go. it's not like you for the gas stoves supplying your brain with weapons, then suddenly decides to stoke is invasion because, oh no, they don't get the weapons. you know, i'm not going to take your brain anymore. because uh before 2022 uh, supplies of weapons through your brain or the circle diesel beads were meaning mo, uh, in contradiction to what the tribune is seeing at the moment. and we don't, these weapons, the water will be prolonged because butcher is going to push until she can inflict the strategic defeat because he is ultimately cool in this, what is to defeats you great. it isn't what you need to win or lose. so for what you mean, the bluetooth is important to when i think it's electrical proposition. so stopping the supplies of way, let me ask you another question. in that same vein here,

is it here saying that you're saying that point one would continue to prosecute this war? some have even argued it might prompt him to expand his imperial ambitions in november of last year. russian foreign minister survey lever insinuated that now though, that might take a similar path to ukraine. think about it though, but is destined to fall to the next victim in the west unleashed hybrid war against russia. i mean, it's not that far fetched mir and i'm going to, i got, i want to get your take on this to, i mean, they've occupied part of georgia and, oh, wait annex premier. it pardon me in 2014. and is a full on invasion of ukraine in 2020 to one could argue you don't need a crystal ball for this. this is, this is inevitable. and, you know, it's just very shortly. that's in the beginning of the work. there was an official statements by some russian junior rule that the goal is to make a land score either to model because part of my door goal does needs to be,

of course, russian troops. and so the idea was to one goes, so then you bring and to one good ideas and so make avoided the, you know, to does needs to do what do you bring and standard 3. so. ready taking my goal is definitely possible in this scenario. and so it was almost denounced by russian. so they didn't go as far as actually seeing that they're going to exact model. but they said that the goal is to make this quarter door of dignity at the trash rules from the actual russian standards we do, the tendency to, i'll do it to what kinds of needs do. so it is not finished and you do certainly ensure that the view this comes down to whether you're seeing russia is acting as a fundamentally aggressive expansion has power or whether it has legitimate security concerns. georgia, 2008. that happened because george attacked the russian allies 1st. russia that intervene. unfortunately, george, i think got betrayed by dick cheney, which encourage them to watch that operation and made,

given the impression that the us would have george's back again, 2014. we've already gone over the history. there was a crew that happened whether you like in a corporate or not. he was over thrown crimea historically, as part of the russian sphere in house rushes most important naval base. there was no way rush. it was gonna let crimea fall into the hands of the government knows no talking about joining nato, which by the way was previously outlawed on the finding constitution. if roger was expansion his wife and to take donuts into hans and 2014, when the leaders and the brakes were republics, were begging to be part of russia. russia said, no, let's do the math. i don't know where it goes. i mean, every, the imperial power that has occupied later and explained, i always say there's a security concern. the only thing is a strategic military purpose. they, they never just say, hey, we're being, you know, warmongers and everything was taken out. there's always a good question. and it's a legitimate or not the part the question was, do you think russian taking more do i do? i see them expanding to go off after nato countries? absolutely not. that would be suicide. or that would be inviting more with native

world war 3. they are in ukraine because of ukraine's significance to russia. william burns is a current director of the ca, what a cable in 2008 warning that ukraine for russia was a red line across the spectrum. whether it's put in or his liberal critics, because of ukraine's historical significance to russia, including having people inside your brain, millions of who are a family in russia to identify as ethnic russian. and that's why it was always crazy to try the dry ukraine into one camp. why not let it be neutral respect, and you have people in ukraine who hate russia fair enough to do people in ukraine also want to be a part of russia. so the projects and the 2014 has been to integrate ukraine into the u. s. light order. and that's when catastrophic. let's say i wanna renew is i want to respond to aaron, but also this fundamental question of, do you see russia expanding even further and continue this sort of pattern that we've seen since 2008? yes, russia will expand once given the chance. and if nobody find spots,

if you praise stops, twice and back, russia will expand. and what will happen is that you will have russian missiles directed at a number of western capitals located that you praise the fall most west and borders which will lead on for me and will be reachable within 2 hours. if this is something that says you're lucky for the us once, i'm pretty sure that the answer is no. and this is why there's also robot support for you. right, and drove off and i'll just come to the nation by pointing back towards rush on something that i want to get straight arrow and has implied so many times. that's deep writing is almost like a profit of either the us or the that the piece ukraine is an independent country party for its very existence. it says not to be any foreigners coming from any other country, but the people of ukraine, r o b, that heart their wish to preserve the whole,

protects their families and to regain control of our own land. and this is what has happened, and we are grateful to every single country that is standing behind us with military support financially few, military, ne, i'm any other support from how that can be provided to make sure that the process of russian and rushes or to practical on the porch and on the under a whole group of other politicians does not spread floods up then rushes borders. and we're trying to push them back and making any kind of negotiations and peace with russia without actually having security guarantees from a number of countries is impossible and will never be possible. i think this is where i'd like to to these things and make things clear and just discuss, all right, that's all we have time for unless you alia aaron. thank you all for joining. i'm sure. all right, everyone, that is our show upfront. we'll be back, the,

the president biden says, wants a 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis. what does anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for? i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy. and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world? the quizzical look at us politics, the bottom line, african narrative from african perspectives. the and to continue to do show documentaries by african filmmakers from rwanda and democratic republic of andrew cl, easy on the drive on and reinventing the new series of africa, direct on how to sierra on counting the costs. nobody wants to make in the develops

nation. how will that affect frustrated pharma deposit slips into recession? can't we? gain is ranking is the world's largest economy. foss, cocoa prices, the soaring and chocolate levels of paintings of change, counting the cost on. i'll just say the rights organizations filed a civil suit against and that states saying supply is around with parts for f. 355 projects makes the netherlands complicit. impossible war crimes in gaza? then that lens has how's the repeating distribution center for f 35 spare parts from with also supplies is we're out in 2022 and exported spear parts worth 2.4 $1000000.00 to the country with the escalation of the war. and guys, at this number, it's not predict has to be much higher. for the 1st time, the court has ordered the country to stop sending weapons to israel. the verdict is seen as a severe blow to the dutch government to have argued that stopping it's gone for

the ocean to the ex $35.00 program with jeff or dice it sites with us. and it's, well, i was had a severe use. it cannot, in fact, in this product, the judge argued that political and economic interests con, be more important than the protection of civilians lives during the war. israel attacks the family home in northern gulls or civil palestinians have been killed. the mccrae, this is on 20 life from the hospital. so coming up 3 palestinians arrested. this is ready for system civil cities across the occupied with bank us and british will binds his receipt by says, following an attack on an american ship and the red sea i'm sure.