of the palace city and civil teeth, but it's a truly family affair. animals use, it has pulled the sons and all of them are football players. houses 0 wells tails disposing success. story of why deal nice built by one family to dekalb disease champions against all the best. we don't have freedom. we have the oldest one family, one team on out to 0. can china and the u. s. means of their trouble. the relations americans stop diplomat food of aging aiming to ease months of tension, but with both sides increasingly at odds over many issues. what are the chances of success for anthony blanket? this is inside storage. the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much i'm june when superpowers fall out, the rest of the world worries about what might happen next. so the visit to china by america's top diplomat is being closely watched the military and economic giants failed to see ida on many vital issues. there's rivalry and mistrust on both sides, but there's also acknowledgement, however hesitant, perhaps that the strategic rivals need one another to further their own interest, both at home and abroad. so will answer me blinking visits, signal and improvement or further fuel divisions, will explore the issues with i guess in a moment. but 1st, this report by katya lopez for the young and by most accounts, relations between the us and china are at an all time low. there is hope this visits with aging by us secretary of state anthony blinking will change that expectations for the 2 day trip or low. but it may pave the way for more

constructive meetings between presidents, joe biden and teaching team talking about legitimate differences. we have also all these areas there hasn't been much common ground lately. there's tensions over taiwan, territorial disputes of the south china seas. russia's invasion of ukraine and trade sanctions. yeah, sure, sure, sure. china is proceed. strategy of using its economic mike as political leverage abroad is also alarming washington m as allies i think the us probably needs to make some assurances to china that it supports the state as quote on tie one, it benefits no one for that to be up in that i think some sense that it's not against china growing economically. it just has areas of competition. the us recently reported aggressive maneuvers by a chinese fighter pilot peer and american military spike playing over the south

china sea. and a chinese worship came close to a collision with a us destroyer in the taiwan strait. back in february, a suspect a tiny spy balloon was detected flying over the us. lincoln's trip is looking to set up systems to avoid similar incidents. china has repeatedly calls on the us to not interfere and its sovereignty or domestic affairs . the world's top to economy seems to be at odds now over a growing list of issues. we found that the term deal. i would like to emphasize once again that the us should not be found to size about dealing with china based on the vision of power domino, china and the us must develop the relationship on the basis of mutual respect and equality. blinking is the highest level of us official to visit china in 5 years. now, governments across the world are waiting to see if this is it will lead to any concrete results. patsy,

a little physical in for insights towards the . all right, let's go ahead and meet our guests in beijing is our tank and china affairs analyst and senior fellow at the tire institute. that's a chinese geopolitical think tank and culture, sir in england is natasha lynch, that deputy dean and professor at the university of essex. natasha focuses on us policy and foreign affairs and in china is commercial capital. shanghai is joseph mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at east china normal university. a one welcome to you on thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. joseph, let me start with you today. expectations for this visit by anthony, blinking to badging are low, but how significant is it that the visit is happening? and could it actually helped me in the relationship between china in the us? you know, at the end of the g 7 find t's that a saw in china us relations might be coming a recent way uh, security the coverage on it. you know, and i offered what some viewed as,

i'm sorry, a tori remarks against the coupling. and the importance of uh, continuing to advance trade between the 2 countries. now, with lincoln's visit somewhere hopeful that we might be witnessing the ball that bite predicted the most. i think optimistic analysis anticipates this meeting perhaps will be followed by several others throughout the summer, including yelling of commerce secretary generation romando and especially ongoing for the climate. john kerry, now summer being i think, a little overly optimistic that this might lead to a summit between the 2 presidents present she and president by later this year. but more importantly that this will signal those are relations, are stabilizing and finding a new normal. however, you know, i think given all the damage that we've seen over the past 2 years, given the difficult political and economic situation that is still unfolding in united states. and given the fact that many anti china initiatives won't simply

disappear, but more likely, deeper it's prudent to keep expectation as low as both lincoln and beijing have signal. and i think, you know, recalling the ridiculous balloon group ah, that cancelled blinking. so a previous visit, perhaps we should all be satisfied that is simply showing up this time, this alone marks progress natasha. you heard joseph, they're talking about the fact that there are now some expectations out there, perhaps overly optimistic that this could down the line lead perhaps to a meeting or a summit between presidents joe biden and she jumping. do you believe that that could happen any time soon? i i don't see it happening any time soon. i do think i, i agree with what's already been said that this is a, an initial positive 1st step just the fact that they are actually meeting. and that blinking did, did show up. there are some potential avenues in cooperation. i mean, both countries do 600000000 in trade with one another. the,

the us is china is biggest trading partner and china is the us is 3rd biggest trading partner. and though there are been all these different tariffs that were applied during the trump administration. and that had been maintained under by didn't and have gotten worse than that. they're still doing a lot. * of, of trade with one another in fact, and even when up, if you take into account the cost of live, if you don't take into account the cost of living crisis. but there's so much mutual suspicion that that remains are so many different points where they, you know, it's, it's, it could be quite dangerous to, to speak on it because there are all kinds of issues that have been on resolve the issue of ukraine. the issue of time, one of the issue of, you know, china is us as recent application of, of terrace on somebody conductors going to uh, or blocking and somebody, conductors going to china. and so because there are so many pressure points and,

and different issues, it makes it very difficult to just resolve things. but i think what the lincoln was trying to have in mind with his visit was to start the wheels of communication going advocate for his us as interest in the allies interest and, and try to take that 1st step in defusing, some of the tensions in our you heard natasha there are talk about the fact that despite all this heated rhetoric about the low point in the relationship between china and the us, we still do see very robust trade ties between badging and washington. so i want to ask you, despite the tough diplomatic relationship, the economic relationship is still strong, right? as well. this strong is a strong word. what you have is the subsidy. the fact is that china produces a lot of the intermediate goods that are of the united states needs. also at a time when the economics are in disarray in the us facing a lot of multiple issues,

17 trillion and private debt of 32 trillion and climbing of national debt. yeah, of course people are selecting the least costly. there's a trade off between uh, you know, what they want in terms of quality or brand and the actual price and what they can afford, especially with basically wages for the lowest going down every month due to inflation . so it's not a question of they want to trade with each other. it's a question of necessity. so this idea that, you know, somehow washington is doing china a favor by trading with it is nonsense. they, the dichotomies are very much interconnected. and what i see here is us coming to china and saying, listen, you know, you have to listen to us. and you know, it's, it's kind of the colonial attitude that we're going to set the agenda and you should be reacting to it. now we saw in anchorage years ago that china is no longer content to just be slapped around and then be told to shake hands afterwards. so it

is a juncture blinking, it has to do more than just kind of come and say, look, you should be, listen, does he has to put something on the table? the best thing would be to start lifting a lot of these uh, you know, uh, blacklist, and alls and um, trade sanctions, i know, let me ask you something else. um, the fact is no matter how the visit by blinking is perceived or described, you've had the u. s. business community that has been welcomed with open arms in china. take the recent example of bill gates. what does that tell us with regard to china prioritizing, business and trait? well, china is trying very hard to put it out there that they're open for business and the american, um, and also your opinion has the comedies, everything from starbucks to volkswagen and ilan mosque are going. they're trying

to signal to their governments that china is a very important market for them. they can't afford to lose it. imagine, you know, if we've already seen the memory chip maker by crohn, the lose $15000000000.00 and in sales, that's not a drop in the bucket. so, you know, these types of things are affecting business businesses, sending a signal to their leads that business and the politics are not in alignment and things now. bill gates is a little bit different. he does not represent in microsoft anymore. and he made his rather substantial $50000000.00 investment, or no, i should say donation to making sure that food, security and drug deliberately were going to be used in china so. so a little bit different. i don't see him necessarily a business man, but you would certainly welcome because he was trying to do something that encouraged a common he between these 2 nations at a time when it's at a very low point. joseph. so it's already come up even in this discussion that the

us in china are also locked in a battle over technology. the us hasn't post sections and export controls on major chinese manufacturing and technology sectors. aging says that washington is stifling comp, chinese competition. how does this get resolve? how do they work around this particular issue in this, or during this visit? you know, i, i, let's just add a simple example. i was talking with a german colleagues a few days ago. and you know, he was saying that the, a lot of the european governors are simply following in the us wake on this on this chips legislation on this type decoupling aspect. but volkswagen is screaming, how are we going to produce cars? if we don't have ships, you know, the whole spot again is making a lot of their money and china right now. and they won't have access to chips either even even european manufacturers in china are being closed out. so this is a major issue. i don't think that a blinking is in

a position to negotiate anything related to chips substantially. it is a law at this point. i think what we're really optimistic for, if anything is relaxing some of the terrorists it's, it's, they've been study after study showing that these of hertz american consumers, janet jo and has said this on a number of occasions, results. but the, for whatever reason the, by the ministration has not been able to do what's best for the relationship or the american people. it doesn't have the courage to move forward with, with dropping some of those policies that are clearly feeding some of the insulation that american consumers have had to face. but you know, i think the real issue here is, uh, not just uh, the tray, not just uh that the sanctions on, for example, the defense minister which prevented that meeting at the stronger last session. and in a single board, it is the thing that's really worry some so to most of us on the, on our in the badging has the same concern. these close encounters in the taiwan

straits. and the soon i see us is bringing a heavy military presence, expanding nuclear arsenals and asia, expanding troops. and the philippines, admitting that they have trips. and so i paid all of these things these, this is what's really pushing the button. this is what's really pushing us and so the read and these are the things that blank and can talk about perhaps resulting or at least trying to back off a little bit. i don't know that he has the courage to do that, but that's what is really 1st and foremost invasions mind. natasha. mr. blinking, it has said that he wants to create a crisis management mechanism with china. what would that look like? what does that mean? are we talking about re establishing military to military communications to yeah, it's just more about increasing transparency. so. d you don't get these incidents like happened in february with this fiber room incident and things get, you know, blown out of proportion. and from the,

the chinese side. they felt like it was more much ado about nothing. uh and because of what there wasn't really vary between occasion during that period. and so that's one of the things that is really important in establishing the type of transparency that prevents smart spiraling mistrust. and then where you start to see different states engaging in almost like a game of chicken where they're pursuing stronger military postures that look more more offensive and, and then that spirals into something more than what they would want. obviously, from the us point of view of the last thing it wants is greater attention with china. and i think blinking is, is trying to do that. but as has already been illustrated, a lot of the moves at the u. s. has done uh, has just exacerbated these tensions. i already mentioned the fact that trump had put 300000000000 worth of tariffs on chinese goods and try and then retaliated with another 100000000000. but that was a point where the finding administration could have changed the direction there and,

and reduced some of these terms. and that would be, of course, really important to improving tensions all around, including on, on some of the more volatile issues where there is mutual perception, both in the us side in the chinese side. that there is increasing aggressiveness, assertiveness, in terms of what the sphere of influence is for both countries. i know it looked to me like you wanted to jump in, so i'm going to let you do that. but i also want to ask you about the idea that the answer, the blinking wants to essentially reestablish military to military communications between the us and china. is this something that can happen at this juncture? to sure they had an opportunity, as joseph pointed out in singapore, all i needed to do was withdraw the name of the current defense minister of the black list. remember that he was put on that blacklist just because he was the

person in charge of buying a weapons from russia. not recently, but many, many years ago. it's kind of nonsense. a gold. china has been buying jet engines and also a missile systems from russia for a long time. but for some unknown reason. um, you know, the previous president decided that he wanted to put a black mark on this guy's record. and he can, you know, remote go to the us. so just drop that in the, i'm sure that there would be some meetings. they've already asked. we asked to this idea of beating romando who's not very favorable to china. and also, um, you know, obviously they, they do like the climate issues and, and also they'll be meeting with john and yellen who they think is as speaking a lot of sense. so they're being very wide in terms of their signals, but they cannot have a situation where they, you know, there's defense semester as being blacklist. the reason i was smiling is because this idea that lincoln had, was coming to china is not correct. he uh,

2 days before he had not gotten an invitation reason. i know that as i've talked to the diplomatic community here and when there is an official invitation, it's published so that all the embassies know and know about it. he was, there was nothing on the calendar, and it was a issue of some note among the diplomatic community. so 2 days before he didn't get an invitation and already told people that he was going to china, he didn't have he, all of a sudden they discovered this bible just like when he was coming this time all of a sudden they discovered that they were spying going on by china. cuba both were overblown. i think in people's minds as an opportunity to try to seize the agenda and hold it hostage with some sort of claim that china is fine. we all know that the us has $90000000000.00 a year that spends inspiring, that's what we see. and quite frankly,

there are 32. you choose 5 planes and additional ones, $11000.00 drones running across the world at all times. and they are in fact spying . so this idea that somehow a low level balloon is loud somehow and a violation of america as i've read it. he, when it goes routinely over friend, pro, a neighbor of like on a daily basis gathering information is just an example of the hypocrisy. and one of the reasons it's very hard for these 2 countries to deal with each other. natasha in china is looking for assurances from the us that it won't metal in domestic affairs and that it won't cross a red line and tie one at this stage. do you think that the us would be willing to give assurances of the of that nature? you know, uh and i think we've seen that through some of the actions of the us that they're been visited by nancy pelosi, the former speaker of the house to,

to time long before. and there are definitely elements within the us congress that are highly sympathetic to taiwan that want to offer even more support for taiwan that feel that time one is, is a democracy a and has a support of human rights better that are very critical of the human rights record in china and critical of the policies of the past from, from the bill clinton era onward of a comprehensive engagement with china and, and we'd like to see the us taking even tougher sense. so the us has elements in both in judge and some business sectors. so some elements in the congress that, that the, don't want to make these types of insurances, because actually the us had said that if china were to attack taiwan, that they would have to come to time wants defense. joseph china is neighbors in

particular, are growing more concerned that the relationship between the us and china has gotten so bad that it is in danger of perhaps spiraling out of control into some type of open conflict going forward. are there any players we within the international community that can, that can help the escalate these tensions? you know, that's a good question. i think that there was some optimism that uh, that maybe we were seeing something like that from french president my chrome after he came here and made some very interesting comments. he came and visited the travel around the country, visited the business communities in different parts of the, of china. and this was, this was, you know, really out of step with what some of the other things that we were seeing and hearing from your schultz king here. of course he was one of the 1st to sort of break ranks. but again, what i'm, what i'm hearing from a lot of, or you're getting colleagues, is that in fact, there is no real difference among european has of states. they are pretty much lock

step with, with united states at this point. right. and even because they're, they're not sure how to implement things like chips they're, they're being even more robust in terms of how they're doing it. and then, you know, i, i have a cc. i suspect that if, if we can see china making significant headway on the piece proposal that they put forward with ukraine. and i think that uh, presentation is going to honor his relationship with the sheet and thing and, and help that along that we might see a present brewton inter feeling something that he's these to in the past, which is negotiating or mediating between india and china. now i hear from a lot of indian diplomats that uh and uh, new delhi would like to to see

a deal put in place. and of course, this is interesting because of from the american perspective, from the so so, so both endo pacific concept india would be, uh, one of the key strategic lynch bands of that entire uh, containment strategies. so if we can see uh in the, of pulling out the remaining neutrons, if we can see russia playing a significant role in negotiating, that we can keep in mind that india is receiving a lot of investment, a lot of machinery. and increasingly it has the opportunity or business with china, then that may be something that really dodge the dynamic. and i think that india becomes a lot friendlier with china. that would put an interesting amount of pressure on japan. japan has a close relationship with india and in turn that could have a ripple effect on other countries in east asia, like south korea and even perhaps australia and taiwan on our let me get your view

point when it comes to taiwan. if china expects the us to make an assurance to china that it supports the status quote when it comes to ty want. and if the us does not do that, where does that leave things to? well bind has already done that. a number of times avenue, especially after he walks back, is statements that he would have militarily intervene if taiwan was attacked. you know, the us accepted the through the 3 communicate late seventies, early eighties that taiwan was part of china. they just said, please do it quietly. peacefully on, but they didn't say you can't use weapons or anything like this. a war. china does not want to force a reunification. what they want, they, they, they regard taiwan as part of china. you don't like to attack yourself. they're simply trying to keep foreign meddling out of it, especially that ones when it's being encouraged by the united states. they know

that this is all a card that is being used as part of the containment strategy to divert attention by the chinese government from the economy to, you know, obviously preparing for the military. i remember if china was not a success, we wouldn't be having this conversation in the u. s. c's china as an extra special threat because of its economic progress. so all of the things that we're talking about are simply strategies by the us to contain and, and put china and china in its place. the same way they did with japan, back in the eighty's for the plaza accord. china is not going to accept that. so there has to be a new day, a new kind of understanding natasha, whatever ends up happening. the fact that this visit is actually going ahead is this, in some way an acknowledgment. however hesitant, it may be that the strategic arrivals that the us and china need one another in

order to further their own interest, both at home and abroad. is that essentially the message that we're getting out of all this to? yes, definitely. and as i've, i've already mentioned that their economies are compatible in many ways that they, you know, export and import huge amounts of goods with one another. this is something that has been going on now for, for decades, and it's deeply entrenched and it affects all aspects of the economy and the global economy. so there are a lot of points for cooperation. it's just this issue of growing this trust that has taken place and people can assign blame on whatever they want. but from the us as perspective, they see china growing more assertive and aggressive on the world stage, and it being more suspicious of its own actions. i'm sure china would have the same to say to us, so this is an initial hope to, to solve the relationship

a little bit and focus on areas of potential cooperation. but i don't see any major waves taking place. just the fact that their meeting is a good thing, of course, because improves communication is always better than nothing, but we're not likely to see any major changes. all right, well, we have run out of time, so we're gonna have to leave the discussion there. thanks. so much all our guests on our tank and natasha ll instead and joseph mahoney. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website builders. here we're dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash age and side story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is after a j inside story for me and how much enrollment whole team here, bye for now the the

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